Saturday, May 07, 2011

DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT

"It doesn’t – it wouldn’t – take much for huge positions to suddenly reside in “weak hands.” How much has flowed into any number of risk markets for the sole reason that these markets have been moving higher?   It's when highly speculative markets perceive – and presume – abundant liquidity that serious market liquidity issues tend to ferment." 

"The gilded age of speculative thinking" 

ARE WE IN A NEW SECULAR BULL MARKET?

..."Take those fat profit margins. They're near record highs. Now, unless you believe that the stock market fairy has somehow suspended the past 100 years of American corporate history, those profits – earnings – are unsustainably high and will most likely fall within the next few years.


When they do, those bullish P/E ratios will stop looking so wonderfully green and start flashing a cautionary yellow." Christian Science Monitor Don't be fooled...AGAIN!


Dividend yields historically are a very good measure of valuing the stock market, currently we are in one of the most SCANT dividend yield moments in SPX history at 1.75%, most market BOTTOMS were formed with 6% yields and TOPS at 3% !......we can argue that treasury yields are very low here, but that is not a price based on a FREE MARKET SYSTEM with the FED monetizing debt.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/  It used to take 40 years to appraoch a prior Secular bulls cycle highs for earnings....this time it only took 2 years?????????????????? buying near cycle HIGHS in earnings ends in tears.

FINALLY early in 2001 much more money was flowing into stock funds vs bond funds, but that has switched back aagin with near $30 B vs $3B last month.....rallies come with lithe volume and high selectivity....the cyclical bull market is aging, but not shown dead but TA just yet, some believe we have enterred a NEW ERA and that justifies staying LONG STOCKS.....I say we have never dealt with the prior bust, we have now built a new speculative bubble which will burst and cause tons of harm....you can't sweep problems under the rug, nor pile on new fresh debt to cover up the old debt and print money and call that prosperity.

What is happening is the FED policies return ZIPPO to savers and reward risk takers but that is also creating huge inbalances and inflation in commodities, food and energy in particular.

We are over 2 years into recovery and the unemployment rate is 9%, this is an historical worst. Housing the victim has not recovered, and wont for many years. SPX profits are suspect because of financial firms accounting change from mark to market to mark to fantasy.....if the current SPX 500 companies were measured in 2007 $'s and accounting standards......we would see a MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE.

As with silver, price dropping from $48 to $34 in a week about a 30% DROP! That isn't a NORMAL correction, that could signal change of trend, end of speculative bull....unless you think the $ rally is over after just a 2% rally or all of this is just manipulation, if so that makes it even harder for anyone to profit except those doing the hokey pokey.

A similar comeupins would drag the SPX 500 down below 1000.....of course that isn't going to happen anytime soon...

Final thoughts

We are also near PEAK earnings, these 2 combined don't offer much hope of amazing longer term returns in coming months. Maybe NO signals for Bear, maybe not for many months, but easy money has been made, there are little signs that there is sustainability in hiring and NO signs of housing stability (bubbles pop and return to origins...for that that would be near 2003 valuations....that a fur piece below current depressed pricing in most areas)


SURE, you can paper and inflate over some problems, and give illusion of prosperity (that's a word hardly appropriate here?), 2.5 years into OFFICIAL recovery you don't have 9% unemployment and historical HIGHS in Govt transfer payments for people needing govt assistance....this seems a rather one sided recovery leaving out the majority affected and helping the majority who caused it.

In the meantime, the USA grows weaker economically, and the 3rd world is set to topple the USA in GDP just years away...and all we will have left is a mountain of paper debt, lower living standards and a military.


Duratek

Friday, May 06, 2011

SOME SERIOUS GIDDYUP

From the EDGE OF ABYS the US $ has come roaring back to life....is it that most everything in paper like the euro or yen sucks worse?

A SERIOUS hangover HAMMER is lying there if the market doesn't come to life here, 15 SPX points vanished in a snap.....dont you believe in that jobs report? come on!

D

THIS IS RECOVERY?

Doesn't look like the rise in wages from 2003 recovery...

"seasonal adjustments BLAMED for high claims Thrus"

Nothing blamed on higher than expected job growth report.

9% UNEMPLOYMENT after 2.5 years of recovery????

MONEY VELOCITY IN REVERSE

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf  First DECREASE in MOney Base in over 4 months....this just happened to coincide with near historic price burst in silver, oil and other commodities bid up with FED money and specualtion and add in some HORDING....I don't see how recxent action can be seen as healthy and the drop in 10 year yields from over 3.7% to just above 3.1% over this same period is not a sign of strength but of a large mass of money fleeing other things in fear.

The reporting continues to go on at the HAIR CHANNEL for financial BS, and all the ghouls that show up keep chirping about US economic strength and a NEW GEAR of expansion......not much being reported on the claims 4 week moving avg above 430K...INCONSISTANT with expansion and job growth.

Shaded areas are economic contraction (Recessions) and in each case, though with some it is slight, you get a CONTRACTION IN THE VELOCITY OF MONEY (how fast it changes hands in the economy).....I can say with some ease of observation the current SLOWING in velocity is unprecedented.

Definition  "Rate at which money circulates, changes hands, or turns over in an economy in a given period. Higher velocity means the same quantity of money is used for a greater number of transactions and is related to the demand for money. It is measured as the ratio of GNP to the given stock of money. Also called velocity of circulation."

KEEP IN MIND the HISTORIC FED and GOV intervention during this crisis, and the growth in the FED balance sheet from $800B to $2.5 TRILLION and the MULTI TRILLION $ deficits in curred by the govt for stimulus and bailouts......can you say LESS BANG FOR THE BUCK?

All the while, on the HAIR CHANNEL we keep getting reports of rising corporate profitability and earnings!!?? How is it thatbanks have been able for the most part to decrease their loan loss reserves and show mortgage backed paper at or near FACE VALUE when the REAL DEFLATION is in full swing at a home near you? can you spell FRAUD?

The change in direction in silver and oil market (and other commodities) has been nothing short of dramatic.....and at this time a full explanation cannot be given. WAS it just WILD SPECULATION that finally BURST? bringing about a COLLAPSE In pricing?

I can tell you this, wild speculation as avg Joe is on sidelines in the stock market with HISTORIC price rise from the lows of 2009....does not seem consistant with the real world economic data....I see the stock market as VERY DANGEROUS and just as commodity longs recently found out, can turn on a dime ....

D

Thursday, May 05, 2011

RESPECT TRADING RANGE BREAKS

PS...the US $ rallied not long after it pierced 73.00 and where could you even find a SOLE ALIVE that said the $ was worth more than wiping your keester with it?  You getting the idea here of how to invest? buy what nobody wants...at the right time haaa its that easy.....(facetious)

When price rises too high above 200 SMA OR EMA you got a potential comeupins lurking....

WILL ANYONE EVER PAY FOR WHAT THEY HAVE DONE TO THIS COUNTRY?

*do not read on if easily offended.

No one ever will, as no one will do hard time for fing us in the ass for this financial crisis…. I see mkt reaction like today, transports ripping it up 1.5%.....no panic…even with the claims 4 week now FIRMLY in recession territory, maybe it only came out and under 400K “transitory-like” for a few weeks……let’s see just keep thinking of ALL the people that have jobs, not the ones who never will… and you see why the polls say from THE PEOPLE think “market is rigged” and that is why after 10 years of games…they have gone and may not ever come back…..leaving only that Banksters and Gamesters to play with themselves!

Let me hear ALL the damn excuses why the unemployment claims hit 474,000 this week...come on  throw them at me......so when we get UPWARD revisions from what looks like decent numbers no one will be actually looking or paying attention.

ARE U kidding me…OIL under $100 (was $114) and silver below $35 (was $50) in HOW MANY DAYS???? That’s some deleveraging, well that can never happen to stocks……and is all this, as some claim, because of a 1.46% move in $?? Come on…gee….who can feel safe really ….but now here will come hallaluyah gas prices will fall this will fuel bull some more….I guess that’s why transports rocked…gosh

10 year yields topped at 3.74% in FEB (all experts predicted DEATH OF BONDS! haaa dummies)  now 3.168% !!! what is there to be afraid of for the dive back into bonds? IS this the FED at work here piling in MOMO QE 2.....

SPX below its April peak of 1339 a level I will watch...all take care. AND lots of THIS ACTION after Osama was killed...what happened to the rejoicing ?

D

"SURPRISE" VAULT IN UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits surged last week, the government said Thursday.




The number of initial claims rose to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, up 43,000 from the week before. It was the highest level since August, and a big surprise to economists, who were expecting initial claims to drop to 400,000 in the latest report.

OK, can we now drop importance of ANYTHING an economist might have to say? I have been harping things are worse than reported and not what they seem.....SHOULD AT some point the labotimized lemmings rush for the exits....could be brutal.

Trend lemmings continue to get clobbered as OIL off over 43 to $105 area, and Silver continues to slide now around $38.....something is afoot

The 4 week moving avergae for claims is now 434,000 !! this should dispell ANY notion of recovery and make anyone wonder how the stock market has risen for a DOUBLE off the 2009 lows.....well maybe a few are still wondering....

realtycheck.com HOUSING DOUBLE DIPS
And this should also dispell any notions of a hosuing comeback and also make any person awake wonder how the banks or anyone HOLDING mortgage backed paper could possibly be lwoering loan loss reserves to increase earnings forecast and also be valuing their portfolio at ANYWHERE near face value......SPX profits are a SHAM IMHO as soon as mark to market value accounting was dropped!

D

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

ISM SERVICES BELOW EXPECTATIONS

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

PRESSURE TO THE METAL

ECB to signal more rate hikes despite Greek woes


"The European Central Bank will underline its determination Thursday to keep raising interest rates as it tries to restrain inflation, even though higher borrowing costs will add to pressure on the debt-laden economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal."

Some stats that might be helpful.

18% of Americans personal income comes from Gov't assistance. Actual workers pay (wages) hit a low not seen since 1929 at 51% share of income.

A whopping 27% of all homeowners are underwater.

AFter the bursting of the housing bubble, Americans lost about 50% of their net worth. ONLY 54% own stocks ( a low since 1998) SO the stock BUBBLE RALLY, yes this one, is not helping them much...nor is the assult on savings which now if you add inflation is negative returns.

Mortgage debt is being HIDDEN by fast Eddie's accounting change in 2009 and there has not been the needed deleveraging to recover.

Top 1% own almost half of our entire wealth....this has GROWN since 2009......

D

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

RIMM SHOT

What happens when you overstay your welcome in a stock....ot stocks.

D

SILVER PRICE MANIPULATION?

http://silverinvestingnews.com/312/silver-price-manipulation.html  AUG 2008

Fast forward to today and there is a disparity between paper silver/ETF'S and comex silver prices and what you might pay should you be able to find PHYSICAL SILVER.

"Once the bottom is in for the silver price, the bullion banks are going to have to cover shorts by buying longs...and away the price will go again to the upside."
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home  'There are NO markets anymore, just intervention"

D

PRICED BEYOND PERFECTION, MARKET IS SET TO RETURN TEARS

 Art Cashin....."Banks buying treasuries, worried about economy...mainstreet is NOT BORROWING...." some rally....4 week MA of claims above 400,000 NOT conssitant with any recovery thesis. INDIA raises interest rates 50 basis points to fight inflation, Chinese wage growth 14% !!! in 2010.....you have been sold a bill of goods on this market but IMHO hold 2 week old bananas......soft, brown, mushy.....spoiled.


Without extreme intervention, and subsequent FED policy actions and forced liquidation of savings into risk assets, funneling of Treasuries into stock options and commodity speculation......without the preception of the FED has your back and QE programs.......without the easing of mark to market accounting, would we have a rally at all?

With the continuation of ZIRP policy, it is clear to me, the FED feels the economy and more so the STOCK MARKET cannot stand on its own 2 feet.....and this bubble activity should lead to economic stability.....on the contrary we are headed for instability and the policies have been mostly ineffective towards the ROOT of the problem.

Just as Japan has done for almost 20 years, banks are HIDING their losses....with an accounting gimmick...turned legal by the GAO.

Rising prices are cutting into corporate profits and consumer spending. A $ rally was due and its up this AM, but the US $ has been rapidly falling in lock step but opposite direction to stock gains.

Policies and speculation go rampant and unchecked again, margins raised for 3rd time on the metals.....silver has turned into a bubble and may have finally POPPED.....many have called for buying the dip....they have already lost money on that call...WAY TOO early to tell and currently commodities on my sell signal.

Banks have recently stepped up their Treasury purchases, buying $65 BILLION in the past 7 weeks, this is a defensive move and is it because of the WEAK GDP data?

$ appreciation is against current policy endevors and everything bought with $'s may do a jiggy reversal....in data I watch I neither have seen spirited buying nor selling and the premkt OSAMA IS DEAD BUY THE MKT HYPE didn't even last the day....nothing has changed much.

It has compressed 2 years of gains what might normally take 5.....the market is NO LONGER ATTRACTIVE for longer term gains at current levels, IMHO. DUMMIES ONLY BUY MOMO and don't consider risk reward scenarios....this is NOT 2009 anymore, not by a long shot....only you and financial advisor can determine your next actions, but at some point reality will strike....read DR Hussman's report I posted and decide for yourself.

D

ALICE IN WONDERLAND

Beazer Homes posts a loss in fiscal 2Q ino.com


Beazer Homes USA Inc. is reporting a $54.6 million loss for its fiscal second quarter, weighed down by inventory impairment charges. The company also says it cut about 130 jobs and reported a decline in new orders and closings.

Monday, May 02, 2011

GOLD AND SILVER LOOK TO BE ROLLING OVER

My GUT says so is the general market.....greed is RAMPANT with manipulation, lack of participation from the general public, these YAHOOS are playing against themselevs in a lot of cases.

D

"EXTREME CONDITIONS AND OUTCOMES" by Dr Hussman

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110502.htm

OH THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OUR BELOVED DOLLAR

GREENSPAN FED CHAIRMAN 1987-2006   line that up with the above chart and value of the US $......WE ARE AT DEATHS DOOR WITH BERNANKE AND $ value......

This has helped ruin our manufacturing base and decline standard of living for MOST Americans (only 54% own stocks, lowest level in 13 years), and build CHINA as a world power who WILL eclipse the US in GDP in a few years....THANKS FOR NOTHING....THANKS FOR DESTROYING THE MIDDLE CLASS, and for your feckless reckless monetary policies that have helped put us down that rabbit hole

Duratek

Sunday, May 01, 2011

OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD

For those who lost love ones 911, this is time to rejoice...a job well done by CIA and a brave few armed men who made this happen....to all those who have given their life for this country....and to Obama for keeping the pressure going and making this a priority.

My other point is the silver market was off 11% well before this came official.......how interesting...fair, free markets?

D

SILVER DROPS 10% OVERNIGHT

"Now even The Grandich Letter Editor Peter Grandich, a self-proclaimed former “raging bull” on silver from under the $10 level, is saying “sell all silver holdings.”

“It’s not that it can’t go higher but I can’t first start buying it here, and I learned it’s best to consider selling when you can’t buy anymore,” he said. So, “if you like crowds, feel free to stay on board. For me, around $50 is a lovely destination to get off for a trip now eight years in the making.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-mania-may-come-to-an-abrupt-end-2011-04-29?link=MW_story_popular

good call

IMHO stocks are also already or very close to the same consideration.....show me a stock at a REAL VALUE? smart money has already or is making their way to the exits, letting the foolish fight for the last run to THE TOP....where it will IMPLODE like a DEATH STAR....it got to where it is on a floatila of funny money and ZERO INT RATES....its a bloated carp lying in the summer sun on an oil soaked beach.....

"BEN LAYS AN EGG"

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203579804576285032227534572.html   If you subscribe to Barrons online this is a must read, if you do not this will be in public domain in about a week...search for it a read.

Beginning in 1998 when we had the Long Term Capital fiasco, the FED pumped the market with liquidity and that created the 1998-2000 Tech Bubble...we know how that ended. Now that was a MILD Recession as far as they go, but NO PAIN should be shared when FED action and speculation go foul.....so we had even a heavier hand by the FED in 2001-2003 with 1% rates and the EASY MONEY flowed into Real Estate, and we also know what happened because of that.

WILD SPECULATION in housing and upward SPIKES in prices wnet completely unchecked, and even the FED when asked about housing "SAW NO PROBLEMS, NO RISKS"....see my Bernanke video.

OK, now we also know what has happened since the most recent FED action, I'll see you one better lowering of funds rate to 0%, and taking their own balance sheet from $800B to over $2.5 T...this year alone pumping $600B into the treasury market and beyond...

Randall Forsyth concludes "....and memories are too short to recall that liquidity-driven speculative frenzies tend to end badly."

With only 54%, the lowest on record owning stocks, we can summise who is doing OK with a $4T increase in equity prices since 2009....it's not you or me.

What you and me got is lower real wages, much higher prices ad near 0% returns on our savings, seeing our standard of living downgraded.

SO WHAT we had a Bernanke press conference, NO ONE will bother to ask the tough pertinent questions, and we will continue to getthe same policies which are harming the avg American...."for an extended period of time."

Just a FEW people have the power to redistribute wealth and it isnt going in the direction of the Middle Class.

In Maryland the funds for roads has been transferred to the general accounts to help balance the States shortfalls. There is now talk of RAISING GAS TAXES to help put money back for road repair etc....

Duratek