http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-five-years-central-banks-172756291.html
"Analysis: Five years on, central banks not yet out of options" IN PLAIN ENGLISH what has not worked for 5 years, the idiots will keep on doing....
D
Thursday, August 09, 2012
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
CURRENT YIELD IN S&P 500 is 1.95%
MAJOR BEAR MKTS have typically made their final bottoms with yields of 6% or higher. MAJOR TOPS typically offer the least inducement to hold buy yield and it's more about price appreciation...yields are found near 3%.
Are we near a TOP or a bottom?
D
HOUSING WON'T LEAD US OUT, THEN WHAT WILL?
Recession Generation Opts to Rent, Not Buy, Houses to Cars
BloombergConfronting a jobless rate above 8% since 2009 and student-loan debt hitting about $1 trillion, 20-to-34-year-olds are renting apartments, cars and even clothing to save money and stay flexible. More »
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
"S&P Hits 1,400 on Hopes for Central Bank Action"
Above is another one of mant taglines for the reasons WHY stocks keep heading higher.
Central Bank action has put floor under the mkt, they may even be buying SPX futures, but this is an OLD GAME and it gets less and less bang for the $ each time they do something.
I don't know, is the 0% rate policy the only way out of this mess? WHAT do 25% of all homeowners, who are UNDER WATER In their mortgage do? NO GOV'T program can help them, don't listen to the claims which are either lies or misleading.
You can't refi if you are way under water, can't sell......don't want to renovate or spend money on your home.....
EVERY recovery from Recession has been led by housing until now. Never before have we had yr/yr declines in housing prices, until now.
DO you want to put all your eggs in the stock market basket if the reason it rallies and appears like a bull is "hope for central bank action"?
D
Central Bank action has put floor under the mkt, they may even be buying SPX futures, but this is an OLD GAME and it gets less and less bang for the $ each time they do something.
I don't know, is the 0% rate policy the only way out of this mess? WHAT do 25% of all homeowners, who are UNDER WATER In their mortgage do? NO GOV'T program can help them, don't listen to the claims which are either lies or misleading.
You can't refi if you are way under water, can't sell......don't want to renovate or spend money on your home.....
EVERY recovery from Recession has been led by housing until now. Never before have we had yr/yr declines in housing prices, until now.
DO you want to put all your eggs in the stock market basket if the reason it rallies and appears like a bull is "hope for central bank action"?
D
Monday, August 06, 2012
BACK TEST OF BREAK OUT?
It certainly looks like it. If prices continue higher and hold the upper range above 1400, that would seal the deal for assault higher in prices.
Nagging laggards such as Transports, RUT (small caps), and the NAZ bring lingering doubts.
EURO CB'S adopting the FED's QE scheme has emboldened the "RISK ON" trade. DAY TRADERS love the market, longer term SWING TRADERS not on solid footing here.
D
Sunday, August 05, 2012
ARE WE HEADED FOR SPX 1600 NEXT?
It never pays to be so one sided that you don't explore or consider all possible outcomes. Did the world end in 2009? We were on BRINK of financial meltdown, fear was at a climax...the darkest hour turned out to be maybe the best time to buy stocks in our lifetime. CAT at $10???
It's not supposed to be easy, or everyone would win, it IS a CASINO! where the house wins 80% of the time. It is a RIGGED game where many know important info before YOU ever do...it's a RIGGED game.
It's election year, the FED will stand by and let economy continue to sink? MY GUY says some kind of surprise action BEFORE next meeting, to maximize effect.....which I suspect will be more short lived than expected....and it may be enough to send stock to their final highs.
Many BULL MKT stocks are already floundering like CAT 20% plus off its highs, ALCOA hurting and single digits. Small and mid caps underperforming, and a non confirmation between Transports and Industrials.
But the top of my broadening megaphone pattern is near 1600 SPX, that option is out there. The 20,50, and 75 week MA'S are all rising, so that is NOT bearish.
GAS has risen 25 cents per gallon in last few weeks, when mkt gets jiggy so does OIL. Maybe game is to talk up EURO, hurts the US $, bully for stocks, commodities get a boom.
1% rates in 2001 led to a HOUSING BOOM, but unfortunately a housing and mortgage finance BUBBLE, when it burst, you know the rest. Now we have 0% rates, mortgage finance rates at HISTORIC LOWS, and the housing mkt barely a rebound pulse, WHY????
Law of diminishing returns, and hard to refinance when you home you bought between 2005-2007 or so is worth 20% or less more than you paid, you don't qualify!
Those heavy into the stock market are benefitting from current policy, but didn't the avg investor head for the hills and Bond Funds and like the Turtle haven ot come out of their shells?
DEMAND for credit has not recovered, ALL this money pumped has not made its way into the REAL ECONOMY, where did it all go? RECORD STOCK RALLY in face of weakest statistical recovery from recession is telling.
Ultimately the bear has been fought with more and more gusto, each time 2003, and 2009 the result from this INTERVENTION has been more costly...... we had a top in 2000, then bottom 3 years later in 2003, we had a 4 year bull and topped 4 years later in 2007, we had a short but painful 2 yr bear that ended in 2009. If this pattern is still playing out this bull will top between 2012-2013....IF.
IF we get near 1600 on the SPX, and you just sit there like lambs at the slaughter house, don't say I didn't warn you.
D
D
It's not supposed to be easy, or everyone would win, it IS a CASINO! where the house wins 80% of the time. It is a RIGGED game where many know important info before YOU ever do...it's a RIGGED game.
It's election year, the FED will stand by and let economy continue to sink? MY GUY says some kind of surprise action BEFORE next meeting, to maximize effect.....which I suspect will be more short lived than expected....and it may be enough to send stock to their final highs.
Many BULL MKT stocks are already floundering like CAT 20% plus off its highs, ALCOA hurting and single digits. Small and mid caps underperforming, and a non confirmation between Transports and Industrials.
But the top of my broadening megaphone pattern is near 1600 SPX, that option is out there. The 20,50, and 75 week MA'S are all rising, so that is NOT bearish.
GAS has risen 25 cents per gallon in last few weeks, when mkt gets jiggy so does OIL. Maybe game is to talk up EURO, hurts the US $, bully for stocks, commodities get a boom.
1% rates in 2001 led to a HOUSING BOOM, but unfortunately a housing and mortgage finance BUBBLE, when it burst, you know the rest. Now we have 0% rates, mortgage finance rates at HISTORIC LOWS, and the housing mkt barely a rebound pulse, WHY????
Law of diminishing returns, and hard to refinance when you home you bought between 2005-2007 or so is worth 20% or less more than you paid, you don't qualify!
Those heavy into the stock market are benefitting from current policy, but didn't the avg investor head for the hills and Bond Funds and like the Turtle haven ot come out of their shells?
DEMAND for credit has not recovered, ALL this money pumped has not made its way into the REAL ECONOMY, where did it all go? RECORD STOCK RALLY in face of weakest statistical recovery from recession is telling.
Ultimately the bear has been fought with more and more gusto, each time 2003, and 2009 the result from this INTERVENTION has been more costly...... we had a top in 2000, then bottom 3 years later in 2003, we had a 4 year bull and topped 4 years later in 2007, we had a short but painful 2 yr bear that ended in 2009. If this pattern is still playing out this bull will top between 2012-2013....IF.
IF we get near 1600 on the SPX, and you just sit there like lambs at the slaughter house, don't say I didn't warn you.
D
D
Saturday, August 04, 2012
SECULAR BEAR MARKET CONTINUES
Do you think the excesses have been PURGED from the system? F no! They have been piled on to it!
These assholes that run our gov't and FED Reserve Banks are reckless to avoid the day of reckoning these jerks helped bring about.
Is there anything out there such as a FREE LUNCH? let me know will you.
D
Friday, August 03, 2012
TRIM TABS EXEC TURNS 100% BEARISH
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/inside-mind-100-market-bear-132824067.html
Trim Tabs is highly respected
D
Trim Tabs is highly respected
D
MARKET CONTINUES HIGHER
600 M shares traded in first half hour, that's pretty strong buying. AS my last long term chart showed, even 1550 SPX not out of question for this move, certainly we will be watching from 1400-1450.
Last night reversal and falling VIX was warning that bullish positioning could be taking place in front of this number. A lot of your thinking will be based on your time horizon. So if in the market first figure out what kind of investor are you?
Staying out if diversified still paying off, But I won't change my longer term outlook for lower prices, that DOESN'T, and I wasn't advocating shorting HERE....there will be time and raising cash would be a conservative man's approach to shorting as you hope to buy at lower prices.
I personally don't worry about missing anything here, I am an observer of the market and doing my best to present an accurate picture of the longer term trend and climate. If you remember the previous 2 Bear markets, the declines come out of nowhere and can be brutal.
The data can be misleading, so when that happens, do you see the value in technical analysis?
Duratek
Last night reversal and falling VIX was warning that bullish positioning could be taking place in front of this number. A lot of your thinking will be based on your time horizon. So if in the market first figure out what kind of investor are you?
Staying out if diversified still paying off, But I won't change my longer term outlook for lower prices, that DOESN'T, and I wasn't advocating shorting HERE....there will be time and raising cash would be a conservative man's approach to shorting as you hope to buy at lower prices.
I personally don't worry about missing anything here, I am an observer of the market and doing my best to present an accurate picture of the longer term trend and climate. If you remember the previous 2 Bear markets, the declines come out of nowhere and can be brutal.
The data can be misleading, so when that happens, do you see the value in technical analysis?
Duratek
DID THIS MORNINGS EMPLOYMENT DATA SIGNAL RECOVERY?
http://market-ticker.org/ Break down of employment data.
"And in the household survey I do not like what I see.
The total number of people of working-age went from 243.155 (million) to 243.354, or 199,000 more working-age people. However, the number of employed people dropped from 143.202 (million) to 143.126, or an actual drop of 76,000 jobs.
Worse, the number of people not in the labor force increased from 86.770 million to 86.828, or an increase of 58,000 -- people who simply gave up."
We don't want bull nor bearish opinions, just someone who cares to present an honest opinion.
The market perhaps will can can make NEW HIGHS within the context of this Secular bear....kind of a crazy premise, but unltimately the folly ends and the target of previous lows is taken on.
3 PLUS years into "recovery" 8.3% OFFICIAL unemployment, one of the weakest labor participation rates since they kept the data, and the pundits will run with todays data and declare VICTORY? PROOF OF HEALTHY ECONOMY?
D
"And in the household survey I do not like what I see.
The total number of people of working-age went from 243.155 (million) to 243.354, or 199,000 more working-age people. However, the number of employed people dropped from 143.202 (million) to 143.126, or an actual drop of 76,000 jobs.
Worse, the number of people not in the labor force increased from 86.770 million to 86.828, or an increase of 58,000 -- people who simply gave up."
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 Labor participation rate fell to near lowest levels.
I wish the data was cut and dry, if you watch that fool Mark Zandi and CNBS.....it is always bullish and hard to hear analytical thought.
We don't want bull nor bearish opinions, just someone who cares to present an honest opinion.
The market perhaps will can can make NEW HIGHS within the context of this Secular bear....kind of a crazy premise, but unltimately the folly ends and the target of previous lows is taken on.
3 PLUS years into "recovery" 8.3% OFFICIAL unemployment, one of the weakest labor participation rates since they kept the data, and the pundits will run with todays data and declare VICTORY? PROOF OF HEALTHY ECONOMY?
D
Thursday, August 02, 2012
WHAT IS THE "REAL" UNEMPLOYMENT RATE?
| What is U6 unemployment rate ? |
| The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over. |
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
UNDERBELLY CRACKING?
This market is weaker than it appears.
D
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