JUMP IN UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

A HUGE jump in claims to over 430,000 this week, much of this is blamed on Sandy weather event, but that was 3 weeks ago.

WMT posts LOWER revenues, another sign of the weakening Consumer, especially lower to middle class citizens.

Wages are still falling, another .2, couple with WMT data, it is pretty obvious the avg American is finding it harder and harder to keep up.

Europe declares another Recession. We have the FISCAL CLIFF worries, but with that being repeated every day, is that already reflected in stock prices?

The market is clearly oversold, so it's important to see if it can mount some kind of rally from exhausted sellers. I plan on CHARTING the action this weekend to show you what has been happening.

D

VIXEN

Similar complacency bottoming pattern to 2007 MARKET TOP. And IMHO that is where we are headed or already got there. It's amusing how the expert players come here and dis me for not seeing ONLY blue skies and forever BULL MKTS.....and more amusing when they scurry back under their rocks when the shit hit the fan....and I get accused of being a broken record?

Well, those who have been following me I've been writing ever since we began this SECULAR BEAR phase, so as far as I can see......we have piled more crap on top of existing crap and the natural balance of things has been fought tooth and claw, so things have not been allowed to go their course and then we heal.....the idiots have made it worse! FED IDIOTS caused the issues and have added insult to bloody injury....

We hear those cheers from those that like what has gone down the last 4 years, but and it's great that pre-existing conditions dont mean you cannot get insured, but NOWHERE in the 2500 pages of this monstrosity of a bill, does it do anything to help CONTAIN COSTS! Insurance companies will raise rates on all to cover the changes made in the bill.

The market is now a might bit oversold, so I expect a bounce of some kind to begin shortly. ALL you see are CLIFF CLIFF FISCAL CLIFF...ow ow ow. Just some of the problems ahead.
WHAT IF a cliff dive is averted? delayed? bulls and bear get trapped in this ugly mkt.

SEE you at SPX 800 or below.

D

"FOOD STAMP NATION"

http://market-ticker.org/

WHAT GOES UP......

http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/stock-market-stock-market-patterns-s2526p500/11/9/2012/id/45706

Interesting chart from Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-09/most-important-chart-consider-weekend-or-tom-lees-nightmare

SUGAR HIGH?

"The stock market will suffer over the 12-month period, which always happens the year after an election," said Len Tannenbaum, CEO of Fifth Street Finance in New York.
Tannenbaum said the effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing debt-buying program will fade this year after helping boost equity performance throughout Obama's first term.

"The market has been propped up by these sugar highs," he said. "QE half-trillion a year is not sustainable in the long run. The sugar high is going to end because Barack Obama is going to raise revenue and cut entitlements. The combination of the two cannot be good for the economy."
Indeed, economists have been busy cutting numbers for future growth in the wake of Hurricane Sandy as well as the drag effects from whatever solutions are devised to avoid the fiscal cliff.
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday cut its fourth-quarter gross domestic product forecast from 1.9 percent growth to 1.5 percent. The cuts were based on the likelihood that Obama will kill the George W. Bush-era tax cuts for those making above $250,000, and the drag that Superstorm Sandy will have on the economy."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stocks-may-keep-falling-140750592.html

MARKET SELL OFF

Market selloff. APPL is off over 20% since it made highs at $705, you damn sure DO have to TIME the market....what does this all mean? Businesses do not like uncertainty, the certainty is 4 more years like we've had, maybe that is a problem...FISCAL CLIFF talk is that.....I think its in the soup...its something else..

I am not screaming chicken little, what I AM saying is there is a ton of complacency out there, the makret is overvalued, and things tend to recvert to the mean, which in past corrections is plain fact for those who bother to look or ask.

Not dividend yields nor PE ratio of the SPX 500 is anywhere near a true reckoning bottom, IMHO.

WTF do I know? just one dude talking here to myself?

D

POST ELECTION BLUES

http://seekingalpha.com/article/990091-so-much-for-certainty-explaining-yesterday-s-market-plunge?source=yahoo

KISS OFF

Interesting day AFTER? The market has been working UNDER the 50 DMA and has kissed off it several times.

Now the lower boundery (dashed line) and the 200 DMA are potential support and targets.

Possible rebound for a few days after this 300 pt loss.

D

VICTORY WILL BE BITTER SWEET

U.S. Futures Fall, Dollar Slips; Global Shares Gain After Obama Win

" World shares and gold rallied while the dollar fell and U.S. futures fell on Wednesday after President Barack Obama was re-elected for a second term, signaling no dramatic shift in U.S. economic policy."
 
Isn't this what the market wanted as it rose yesterday in anticipation of Obama victory? IMHO, was the victory ever in doubt with such a weak opponent?

This victory is a gift to the other party/s....there is nothing that can stop the deflationary debt deleveraging going on, it is not the 9th inning there, more like in the middle, most of the reductions in household debt have come from defaults on mortgages. A SPARK to set off a worse outcome would be...a RISE IN TAXATION, and a pronounced AUSTERITY move....not now...now is not the time for that. But with fiscal cliff talk...and now a TEFLON President with a mandate against "the rich" the JOB PRODUCERS....2013-2014 could turn mucho ugly, IMHO

CYCLE FORECAST

http://www.safehaven.com/print/27598/why-bernanke-cant-stop-the-kress-cycle-tsunami

BLACK SWAN EVENTS

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10725

"Politicians, central bankers and governments are trapped in “do whatever it takes” late-cycle reflationary measures. You can bet on it. Many have. And the global Credit Bubble dynamic will ensure that the world remains short-sided and blind to myriad serious risks until it’s too late.

We’re today in the midst of the manic financial Bubble phase. Especially here in the U.S., the markets will finance virtually anything. There’s hardly a junk bond the market doesn’t love. CDOs are back. Relatively higher-yielding municipal debt induces salivation. There are, then, no worries regarding the ability to finance Sandy recovery and rebuilding efforts. Costs really don’t matter. 
Wealth destruction is basically irrelevant. If it’s “money” that’s needed, well, we’ve got the Bernanke Fed. And why not just rebuild on the water’s edge and buy cheap federal flood insurance. “Broken windows,” broken subways, broken transformers, broken communication hubs, and broken neighborhoods are sure to incite a borrowing and spending boom. Dr. Bernanke’s “mopping up” strategy in action."

QE IS FAILING, AND THEY KNOW IT

"QE falls into a black hole. And it leads into an - if possible even larger - black hole. Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi have neither the power nor the tools to stop deleveraging and debt deflation. That's just a myth they, and many with them who stand to benefit from that myth, like you to continue believing. It makes it all that much easier for them. That surge in excess bank reserves (see the second graph above) comes from QE. It is your money, everyone's money. And it does nothing to "heal" the economy you live in and depend on for your survival; it just takes away more of it all the time."

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/us-hyperinflation-is-a-myth.html  A MUST READ, if you have ANY hope of understanding what is going on.

D

DEMARK ON THE MARKETS

FINANCIAL STORMS

you KNOW, it is a crying shame what the &**% THEY have done to the world, all in the name of *&%)! what?

 

Just like this mammoth storm coming Sandy, this (FINANCIAL STORM) will pass, but not before it carves out a path of destruction no one can imagine....then the skies will clear.

 

Our job is to somehow remain standing my friends!!

IS QE3 WORKING?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- "The Federal Reserve announced plans to unleash more stimulus Thursday, in its third attempt at a controversial program to rev up the U.S. economy.

The policy, known as quantitative easing and often abbreviated as QE3, entails buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. The end date remains up in the air, as the Fed will re-evaluate the strength of the economy in coming months."

The FED has launched QE3 to LOWER long term interest rates, which is what mortgage rates are based on.....why isn't it working?

D

QE IS FAILING

"QE falls into a black hole. And it leads into an - if possible even larger - black hole. Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi have neither the power nor the tools to stop deleveraging and debt deflation. That's just a myth they, and many with them who stand to benefit from that myth, like you to continue believing. It makes it all that much easier for them."

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/us-hyperinflation-is-a-myth.html 

MBA HOME INDEX SLUMPS

"Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell sharply last week, registering the biggest percentage decline in a year as demand for both purchase loans and refinancings tumbled, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49530700

STOCK BULL IS TOPPING

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/bulltop.htm Adam Hamilton's Zeal

"The bottom line is the strong stock bull of recent years appears to be topping. It is long in the tooth, much older than average. It has also powered far higher than average, driving it up near bull-killing secular-bear resistance. And since stock-market valuations remain way too high to herald the end of this secular bear, it needs to reassert itself. And the recent topping behavior sure looks like this process is starting.

Cyclical bears within secular bears are not to be trifled with, as they mercilessly slash stock prices in half over a couple years or so. But not everything gets sucked into this selling. Gold actually becomes much more attractive during stock bears, an island of strength in a sea of weakness. And gold stocks generally follow gold higher, particularly earlier in stock bears before the selling grows more intense later on."

UNDERSTANDING SECULAR AND CYCLICAL TRENDS

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27379/stock-bull-topping

Now let's step back for a moment and try to get a grasp of what is going on and where we are WITHIN the SECULAR (long term) cycle. DO read the link to Adam Hamilton's article above.

This is a sideways GRIND, stocks are lower than they were 12 yeasr ago. We are long in the tooth for cyclical bull trend and near the 1500 topping zone. 2 X we have bottomed near 750 SPX the bottoming zone, where do YOU want to put money to work? Near the topping area? knowing the bull is 43 months old? YES that's what THEY want you to do.

ALL THE QE infinitty talk is to help establish that "stocks can't do down" and one FOOL on CNBCBS quipped "there will beno 200 pt declines", well he's a liar already.

OK, so if history means anything, we know that PE ratio is now at 19.8 (per Adam's piece), and we also know that SECULAR BEARS end between 6-7 PE ratio. IS this a good place to buy based on that?

Have we returned to some kind of norm? Is the economy reset? AS you can see from the 2 charts above, the CREDIT BUBBLE has barely begun to correct, or do you believe what happened in 1929-1950 won't repeat?

The move to our current CREDIT DEBT BUBBLE HIGH is far greater % wise than in 1929 and it has barely begun to adjust, retreat. If we are doing so well, if QE worked so well, why did the FED just call for QE 3 to infinity? WHAT imbalances are being aggrevated because of these actions?

A BELL may not go off, to warn you that the next phase of this SECULAR BEAR
 (usually lasting 16-17 years) has begun. OR maybe you think like some that history won't repeat and it will be different this time...you don't know JACK as they say....or JAck don't know squat...

We have the fiscal cliff ahead of us, we have Bush tax cuts probably ending, calls for Cuts in Federal spending, we still have the government debt growing at over $1 Trillion a year.....how will this all end?

Do we have a government debt bubble and will it burst? We better hope it doesn't burst, because we know we have one.

From DR MArc FAber
One day, the system would break, he said.
"Eventually you have either huge changes occurring in a peaceful fashion through reforms, or usually through revolutions," he said. The U.S. was getting closer to such a revolution, he said, as was Europe.
"I think the timeframe would be within five to ten years you have a colossal mess... everywhere in the Western world," Faber said.
"I think the deficit here (in the United States) - irrespective of who is in the White House - will stay above a trillion dollars per annum for at least as far as the eye can see," Faber said.

Bureaucracies in the U.S. as well as Europe were far too big, he said, and were a burden on the economy.
"My medicine for the U.S. is: reduce government by minimum 50 percent," he said. "The impact would be immediately an improvement in the economy."


D