China demand will continue to grow, tempting energy bulls to deny a fall in prices possible. Correction IMHO is a given.
D
Thursday, August 25, 2005
PEAK OIL?
China demand will continue to grow, tempting energy bulls to deny a fall in prices possible. Correction IMHO is a given.
D
Gold Glistening?
I don't think so. Gold bugs fervor near feverish levels yet gold is treading water.
Gold shares at risk to a general market decline. Silver is near a collapse in prices and doesn't look to confirm the bullish action, like stocks the outright bullish zeal isn't backed up by price movement, IMHO
D
Gold shares at risk to a general market decline. Silver is near a collapse in prices and doesn't look to confirm the bullish action, like stocks the outright bullish zeal isn't backed up by price movement, IMHO
D
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
NDX Toes The LIne
Click for larger image
We are sitting right on the 50 SMA and the trendline from the APril and June lows. We might stay afloat awhile longer, but I think we are close to a severe breakdown.
AN easing of oil prices could ignite a rally, but reality will take hold, we have seen the best it can be, now we need a 20% decline to usher in the Bear, a long way from that
D
MArket Wrap
Let's get right to it shall we? As the Wall Street hypsters keep bullish, as the letter writers and economists remained undaunted, the underbelly of this economy and market are being exposed.
Market TANKED near the close, yet only 60% down volume, not a panic for sure. Home Builders off their highs from the encouraging home sales AM data we looked at, just a respite IMHO, especially if rates don't decline significantly, median home price gains are now at a snails pace, not such the sellers market it once was. The pooch has been smooched.
I hear 50% of private Pension Funds (NPR Radio) have put at least some of their money in HEDGE FUNDS, because they are unsatisfied with stale or no gains.
Another day of early gains erased, today we went neg to pos back to very neg action.
OIL seems not to want to correct, but it will, but it hasn't. Even if it did drop by even $10, LOTS of damage already done, as the Bush contango in Iraq has now doubled the cost of OIL! And the attacks are getting ever more bold.
NEM reversed to slide under $40 again, why so weak the metals? AN ugly performance of the DURABLE GOODS, and I showed it has been not so hot since mid 2004, it seems to me this wonderful asset inflation, I mean recovery ended over 12 months ago and no one has noticed.
SO much money floating around, Greenspan has TOPPED himself, the royal chump Sir boobsalot.
Federal Reserve has NOTHING to do with American Government, they do as they like, and it defies any logic, no one seems to understand what it is they do and to whom. There is NO free market so all we get is periods of boom and bust cycles.
And as I drive past the new Hummer dealership near me, it looks like huge tanks sitting in the parking lot all getting what 10 MPG?
10 Years ago buddy Bill did near nothing, now Bush to END our dependence on FOREIGN OIL. NO alternative is viable at this time IMHO, all cost prohibitive too.
Toyota leads in hybrids (avg dude can't afford) and they will in fuel cells no doubt, but they might be 10 or more years away! And I wonder if current funding is enough to carry most of these little companies to when it is viable alt. SOme popped a little today PLUG and FCEL a CPST
Energy Bill was OBSOLETE 4 years ago, the one passed only encourages more fossil fuel consumption.
Maybe it is sinking in, high gas and INFLATION is rocking this boat. 80 points on Dow move in 2 hours, will be chump change, try a 200 300 point bombing of exchange if any fear kicks in.
Once the ball gets rolling in one direction, hard to turn it around. And IMHO it is easier now to roll downhill.
Duratek
Market TANKED near the close, yet only 60% down volume, not a panic for sure. Home Builders off their highs from the encouraging home sales AM data we looked at, just a respite IMHO, especially if rates don't decline significantly, median home price gains are now at a snails pace, not such the sellers market it once was. The pooch has been smooched.
I hear 50% of private Pension Funds (NPR Radio) have put at least some of their money in HEDGE FUNDS, because they are unsatisfied with stale or no gains.
Another day of early gains erased, today we went neg to pos back to very neg action.
OIL seems not to want to correct, but it will, but it hasn't. Even if it did drop by even $10, LOTS of damage already done, as the Bush contango in Iraq has now doubled the cost of OIL! And the attacks are getting ever more bold.
NEM reversed to slide under $40 again, why so weak the metals? AN ugly performance of the DURABLE GOODS, and I showed it has been not so hot since mid 2004, it seems to me this wonderful asset inflation, I mean recovery ended over 12 months ago and no one has noticed.
SO much money floating around, Greenspan has TOPPED himself, the royal chump Sir boobsalot.
Federal Reserve has NOTHING to do with American Government, they do as they like, and it defies any logic, no one seems to understand what it is they do and to whom. There is NO free market so all we get is periods of boom and bust cycles.
And as I drive past the new Hummer dealership near me, it looks like huge tanks sitting in the parking lot all getting what 10 MPG?
10 Years ago buddy Bill did near nothing, now Bush to END our dependence on FOREIGN OIL. NO alternative is viable at this time IMHO, all cost prohibitive too.
Toyota leads in hybrids (avg dude can't afford) and they will in fuel cells no doubt, but they might be 10 or more years away! And I wonder if current funding is enough to carry most of these little companies to when it is viable alt. SOme popped a little today PLUG and FCEL a CPST
Energy Bill was OBSOLETE 4 years ago, the one passed only encourages more fossil fuel consumption.
Maybe it is sinking in, high gas and INFLATION is rocking this boat. 80 points on Dow move in 2 hours, will be chump change, try a 200 300 point bombing of exchange if any fear kicks in.
Once the ball gets rolling in one direction, hard to turn it around. And IMHO it is easier now to roll downhill.
Duratek
Housing, is it Healthy?
*(Click charts to enlarge)
Pictures worth a 1,000 words? Is the fall in price growth reason to worry the housing bubble has stopped bubbling?
Bond reaction today not rumbling past 4.15% area I said to watch. (thanks Pieter and MAtt)
D
Transports Index on the LINE
(Click to enlarge)
Transports are breaking down, now challenging its 50 SMA. Is it playing catch up to the already hurting BDI?
D
BONDS
Surely look LOCKED in decided uptrend in prices, as shown here and not even close to weekly overbought. 4.15% on 10 yr is an area I am watching to see if it holds. Fear overides inflation?
D
D
Pre MArket Babble
Durables TUMBLE and take the futures with it. Looks like capital equipment and high tech spending hit hardest. High OIL blamed!
Oil will fall when demand dampens, that will happen when we have a world Recession.
Hybrid cars the answer? TOO DAMNED expensive for avg driver, a heft $5K to $10K premium, then IF batteries ever replaced same again. Takes an SUV from 20 MPG? to maybe 35 mpg.
If ONLY BUSH had mandated 5 years ago when he VETO'D legislation that would have increased AVG auto mpg by roughly 5 over that period, we MIGHT not be talking oil crisis. If we hadn't invaded Iraq under false pretense and now lay there in quagmire, same. If we hadnt had SUV'S advertised down our asses and had a gov sit still and actually give tax breaks for buying them!!!?? same
SO we get this wonderful new ENERGY BILL, wonder why Hydrogen stocks have fallen since then? why oil has risen? because it knows how pathetic the bill was and how it gave $$Billions to the oil companies like they really need it.
And NOT a F'ing word about "conservation" increased fuel standards.
Where is the LEADERSHIP? Have you seen Bush speaking recently? this vacation isn;t heloing him he looks WHIPPED
Our economy is whipped too. RR gives Bill Bonner kudo's for his recent piece on how Greenie built the Asian economies.....I have been posting about that along with many others for over a year now. The Daily Reckoning along with Agora Publishing is the most powerful spam blitz machine on earth for SELLING their financial letters, and they have tons of them, maybe some good ones, but they could put almost anyone in business, and when you buy a sub you get BLITZED with mail both snail and email for all kinds of offers, I called SEVERAL times and begged them to stop! demanded it....oh I go on...you know "WE'LL make you 1,000 X your money..." once even having an offer..."send in your money NOW and get this incredbale stock tip!!!!" NOT impressed
Anywho, indexes breaking below their 50 SMA's, oil for now refusing to give back and the effects of this being felt in every body part! and the CPI shows NONE of this, who speaks out against BLS manipulation?
Duratek
Oil will fall when demand dampens, that will happen when we have a world Recession.
Hybrid cars the answer? TOO DAMNED expensive for avg driver, a heft $5K to $10K premium, then IF batteries ever replaced same again. Takes an SUV from 20 MPG? to maybe 35 mpg.
If ONLY BUSH had mandated 5 years ago when he VETO'D legislation that would have increased AVG auto mpg by roughly 5 over that period, we MIGHT not be talking oil crisis. If we hadn't invaded Iraq under false pretense and now lay there in quagmire, same. If we hadnt had SUV'S advertised down our asses and had a gov sit still and actually give tax breaks for buying them!!!?? same
SO we get this wonderful new ENERGY BILL, wonder why Hydrogen stocks have fallen since then? why oil has risen? because it knows how pathetic the bill was and how it gave $$Billions to the oil companies like they really need it.
And NOT a F'ing word about "conservation" increased fuel standards.
Where is the LEADERSHIP? Have you seen Bush speaking recently? this vacation isn;t heloing him he looks WHIPPED
Our economy is whipped too. RR gives Bill Bonner kudo's for his recent piece on how Greenie built the Asian economies.....I have been posting about that along with many others for over a year now. The Daily Reckoning along with Agora Publishing is the most powerful spam blitz machine on earth for SELLING their financial letters, and they have tons of them, maybe some good ones, but they could put almost anyone in business, and when you buy a sub you get BLITZED with mail both snail and email for all kinds of offers, I called SEVERAL times and begged them to stop! demanded it....oh I go on...you know "WE'LL make you 1,000 X your money..." once even having an offer..."send in your money NOW and get this incredbale stock tip!!!!" NOT impressed
Anywho, indexes breaking below their 50 SMA's, oil for now refusing to give back and the effects of this being felt in every body part! and the CPI shows NONE of this, who speaks out against BLS manipulation?
Duratek
Durable Goods orders PLummet
http://briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
Down 4.9% and last month revised downward by .8% much worse than expected.
Futures RED, top is in IMHO watch Bond market reaction
D
Down 4.9% and last month revised downward by .8% much worse than expected.
Futures RED, top is in IMHO watch Bond market reaction
D
A few notable news stories
SPitzer after BAnks
India on the rocks?
Junk Bonds to bite lemmings
Oil staying high, will renewable source/hydrogen stocks catch favor soon?
D
India on the rocks?
Junk Bonds to bite lemmings
Oil staying high, will renewable source/hydrogen stocks catch favor soon?
D
Tuesday, August 23, 2005
"Good Reasons To Be Bearish"
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1124892000.php
Rick Ackerman (from above)
"The chart below suggests that although we missed a great opportunity to short the Diamonds a couple of weeks ago, we’re likely to get another chance, and probably soon. Note that the most recent rally produced a price peak of 107.33 on August 10. That high came within just 0.05 points of an important hidden pivot at 107.38, strongly implying that the three-month bull cycle that produced it is completely spent. For this reason, we should expect the bear to dominate in the weeks ahead and perhaps longer. "
Rick Ackerman (from above)
"The chart below suggests that although we missed a great opportunity to short the Diamonds a couple of weeks ago, we’re likely to get another chance, and probably soon. Note that the most recent rally produced a price peak of 107.33 on August 10. That high came within just 0.05 points of an important hidden pivot at 107.38, strongly implying that the three-month bull cycle that produced it is completely spent. For this reason, we should expect the bear to dominate in the weeks ahead and perhaps longer. "
MArkets react to 3rd best sales on record? but slower than expected? LOL crazy man, from a mountain top you look down...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=agkeb7H.i72M&refer=us
"The OIL Price Mirage"
by Mises.org. READ this story.
http://www.mises.org/story/1892
Interesting argument, isn't there always more than one way to skin a cat? to look at something?
Not long after "Dow 35,000" was printed the markets topped and the bubble burst.
Now we have claims of the end of oil known as "Peak Oil", and WHO doesn't think it will keep going up or remain high?
Thank Bush for the high prices.
Duratek
http://www.mises.org/story/1892
Interesting argument, isn't there always more than one way to skin a cat? to look at something?
Not long after "Dow 35,000" was printed the markets topped and the bubble burst.
Now we have claims of the end of oil known as "Peak Oil", and WHO doesn't think it will keep going up or remain high?
Thank Bush for the high prices.
Duratek
LINE In The Sand?
SPX has been stronger of indexes but the weekly chart shows how the momo wanes.
LOTS of room on weekly to do some damage as soon as MACD crosses below zero.
Sector strength deteriorates one at a time, now energy and home building look weak, WHAT sector will prop this hype job up?
Most of my peers think bonds are near their low for this move, hand not yet shown. The grande Conundrum continues.
But CPI and most BLS data isn't worth squat as it is, not respresentive of any real world experiences.
How would Bonds react to REAL inflationary CPI data?
D
LOTS of room on weekly to do some damage as soon as MACD crosses below zero.
Sector strength deteriorates one at a time, now energy and home building look weak, WHAT sector will prop this hype job up?
Most of my peers think bonds are near their low for this move, hand not yet shown. The grande Conundrum continues.
But CPI and most BLS data isn't worth squat as it is, not respresentive of any real world experiences.
How would Bonds react to REAL inflationary CPI data?
D
Nuclear Economy?
Will we begin a blizzard of NUclear POwer construction projects? One company is a winner when it comes to cleaning up and is where I got my internet moniker! I was an investor at $3 while the tech was still in the lab! I believed.
I don't think HERE, but somewhere, I hope in the not too distant future a wonderful buying opp may appear, if the bearishness here grows. As you look at 10 yr chart, $28 looms large, but the stock has fallen below the 50 WK moving avg, and a break of near $20 could speed the decline to solid support near $15, next stop near $10 if that doesn't hold.
I DO not know what would cause such a break of if it will happen. I believe it is sitting on uptrend line drawn from 2001 lows! ALso same for OBV trendline from 2003 lows.
A near 50% FIB is at $15.39 ish. I will be watching. For if they build it?...they must clean it.
D
I don't think HERE, but somewhere, I hope in the not too distant future a wonderful buying opp may appear, if the bearishness here grows. As you look at 10 yr chart, $28 looms large, but the stock has fallen below the 50 WK moving avg, and a break of near $20 could speed the decline to solid support near $15, next stop near $10 if that doesn't hold.
I DO not know what would cause such a break of if it will happen. I believe it is sitting on uptrend line drawn from 2001 lows! ALso same for OBV trendline from 2003 lows.
A near 50% FIB is at $15.39 ish. I will be watching. For if they build it?...they must clean it.
D
Monday, August 22, 2005
NASDAQ
10 yr chart of compq both 200 and 400 WK moving avg has been respected. You can see how many X the 400 wk SMA has repelled advance.
The 200 WK is curling underneathe, so it will be interesting to see which way she blows as the air comes out of stocks like BIDU and GOOG. In the meantime, the Japanese market has been on fire, breaking above 12,500!
D
The 200 WK is curling underneathe, so it will be interesting to see which way she blows as the air comes out of stocks like BIDU and GOOG. In the meantime, the Japanese market has been on fire, breaking above 12,500!
D
Destruction of the US $$ by Iran?
Were you aware of this?
Should this become reality, and with hard liner now in power do you doubt it will?
The US faces many more challenges ahead than just what you think you know. From the current dollar rally could come a destructive force that obliterates the value ofour currency. This on top of the Chinese unpegging.
Do you now see, should this actually take place, that after the weka hands are shook off gold, that will be the place to be, NOT US equities.
Could cause a dramatic rise in US interest rates.
Duratek
Should this become reality, and with hard liner now in power do you doubt it will?
The US faces many more challenges ahead than just what you think you know. From the current dollar rally could come a destructive force that obliterates the value ofour currency. This on top of the Chinese unpegging.
Do you now see, should this actually take place, that after the weka hands are shook off gold, that will be the place to be, NOT US equities.
Could cause a dramatic rise in US interest rates.
Duratek
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