THIS BELL TOLS FOR THEE THE BELL IS RUNG

WHEN was the last time new lows had overtaken new highs, especially for more than few days? And we are reaching levels consistently of 4 to 1,
5 to 1 (today 159 new lows to 34 new highs) NAZ 2 to 1

LOOK AT TOL from Late July highs, WOOF! THAT my friends is NOT just a correction that is a trend!

It’s not just that the market is dripping its WHO’s doing the dripping. IN a relay race, you hope to have a strong runner to hand off to and win the race, the baton has fallen and slipped down the storm drain.

You need auto’s and housing to lead you out of Recession, my feeling is we used that trump card, we spent the fuel, rates to 45 yr lows we spent the fuel, and now FED is raising….as the most inopportune time….and they wont stop til its too late....and they created the type of inflation they now worry about!!!!

This thing that may be set in motion, the baton handing to one asset inflation to another is now fumbled and disqualified.

How they hold it together from here I am not sure, and I cant think they are through trying, but a dollar don’t get you what it used to.

Duratek

AVIAN FLU NIGHTMARE

*(thanks to P1) and BUSH plan to line pockets of big pharma a watse@@

Drugs no answer to bird flu: experts By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent 1 hour, 7 minutes ago


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Many governments around the world are stockpiling antiviral drugs and some companies are trying to speed up vaccine production but these measure give a false sense of security and will do little to counter a flu pandemic, an expert cautioned on Monday.
Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert who has been studying the risk of pandemic flu for decades and is a U.S. government adviser, said governments should be preparing to cope with the pandemic instead of relying entirely on the hope of using vaccines and drugs to control it.
If the H5N1 avian flu begins to easily infect humans, it will move too quickly for drugs and vaccines to be of much use, Osterholm said.
"It doesn't matter if we have a vaccine now or not. We can't make it," Osterholm said in a telephone interview.
The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed at least 65 people in four Asian nations since late 2003, and has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of poultry.
Experts say it is mutating steadily and fear it will eventually acquire the changes it needs to spread easily from person to person.
If it does, it will sweep around the world in months or even weeks and could kill millions of people -- as many as 150 million, according to the most
dire forecast by the World Health Organization.
When avian flu infects people it looks like any other flu with respiratory symptoms, fever and other common effects but it will kill many more than the 500,000 people who die of ordinary flu each year around the world.
People have known about the risk of an influenza pandemic for a very long time, said Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota who advises the federal government on such issues.
"We have had a pandemic flu plan as a planning process since 1976," said Osterholm. "Nobody has completed it. It been one of the most long-standing incompleted processes in Washington. Nobody wants to believe that modern medical science can't handle something."
But it cannot, said Osterholm, who has seen the current U.S. flu plan. The plan has not been published yet but leaked versions suggest the country has done little to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic.
Osterholm and other experts have long been complaining that there are not sufficient hospital beds, equipment or trained workers to cope with a major epidemic.
"The one thing I worry desperately about it is the impact of overreliance on neuraminidase inhibitors," he said.
There are two drugs in the class -- Roche and Gilead's Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, and GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza.
They work to reduce the severity of annual influenza and may prevent infection if used at the right time. Tests suggest they also work against H5N1, but no one knows how well.
"I think that potentially neuraminidase inhibitors may work if you are already on them as prophylaxis (prevention)," Osterholm said. That would mean taking them daily for days or weeks.
"That means that very, very limited supply is going to become a lot more limited."
FIGHTING OVER SCARCE SUPPLIES
The United States has enough courses of Tamiflu to treat about 2.3 million people. The Health and Human Services Department says another 2 million treatment courses are on order and will arrive by the end of the year.
But some 90 million people would need the drug in the event of a flu pandemic, University of Virginia flu expert Dr. Frederick Hayden told a meeting on Saturday.
At current capacity, it would take about 10 years to produce enough oseltamivir to treat 20 percent of the world's population, Hayden said.
"Now people are saying whoever has the most Tamiflu wins," Osterholm said. "I worry so much that Tamiflu is a surrogate for protection."
And vaccines are not an answer yet and will not be for years. There is an experimental vaccine against H5N1 but there are only a few thousand doses of it.
It takes months to make influenza vaccine and H5N1 kills chickens -- the source of the eggs that are needed under current old-fashioned production methods to make flu vaccines.
Companies are trying to develop more modern methods but are years away from doing so. And work cannot begin on a true vaccine against H5N1 until it actually starts infecting many people, because the vaccine must match the virus precisely and no one can predict just how H5N1 will mutate.
And it is mutating.
A study published last week showed that the H1N1 virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, which killed at least 40 million people globally and may have killed more, depending on estimates, was a purely avian virus that acquired a few mutations that gave it the ability to infect people easily, spread among them and cause highly fatal disease.
H5N1 is mutating in a similar way and experts believe it is only a matter of time before it, too, infects people easily.

BUBBLE ECONOMY

from Feb Dr Richebacher

In the late 1990s, the U.S. stock market bubble went global. The same has happened in the last few years to the property price bubble. According to reports, full-blown housing bubbles currently exist in many countries around the world. As explained, their common cause is obvious: Ultra-loose monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates. In due time, sharply rising house prices added to the interest incentive.

Under these monetary conditions, it made sense to buy a house.
But to repeat, the pivotal hallmark of a "bubble economy" is that the ballooning asset prices are widely used as collateral for a general consumer borrowing and spending binge. In the United States, mortgage borrowing by households during the first half of the 1990s increased by an annual average of $168 billion. This accelerated in the decade's second half to $296.9 billion. But after 2000, it virtually exploded to an average annual growth rate of $615 billion.

It is undisputed that the greater part of the escalating mortgage borrowing in the United States was for purposes other than house purchases. In short, it boosted consumption as a share of GDP at the expense of business investment and the trade balance. That is, it radically changed the U.S. economy's pattern of growth - actually an unsustainable pattern of growth.

Yet America's consensus, amongst it Mr. Greenspan and the Fed, categorically refuse to see any proof of a "bubble economy." A recently published survey article by the St. Louis Federal Reserve - Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms - made a most amazing statement in its conclusion: "We find little indication that booms were caused by excessive growth of money and credit, though 19th-century booms tended to occur during periods of monetary expansion. The view that monetary authorities can cause asset market speculation by failing to control the use of credit has been largely discarded."

To quote a commentator: "The complacency of the central banking fraternity and their academic standard-bearers is a wonder to behold."
Regards,
Dr. Kurt Richebacher
4 February 2005

DELPHI GOES BELLY UP

And it may cost GM up to $11 B

And even worse to debt market?

D

VIEW FROM THE TOP

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20051009.html Henry To is always worthwhile reading, here is his latest before his service for hire. *(note sometimes I will put link in orig form if it is short enough otherwise all live links will be red)


http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1128866402.php Rick offers some interesting thoughts about economy and gold.

WHat "IF" because of inflating cost of living and a wage that is not keeping up, what "IF" because of historic debt and the service that come with it, what "IF" because of many paying through the nose for thier homes because of bubble prices especially first time home owners, what if for many other reasons like higher energy costs and property taxes etc etc etc, CONSUMERS become STARVED FOR DOLLARS (as worthless as gold bugs implore) that they don't even have enough free dollars to BUY GOLD!??

I expect all this FED SPEAK about inflation is sending gold higher, as the avg American struggles to find enough greenbacks to keep himself liquid.

Historic stimulus from Bush, historic FED pumping, worldwide pumping, tax cuts, housing bubble which has led to RABBID SPECULATING and over building (esp cocndo's) which in turn has created 100's of 1,000's of jobs in related financial and home building area, and yet the Dow has been stuck in a range bound trading zone. A break of 10K should it come would signal that part is over.


Duratek

BUSH BEATING THE FLU BUSHES

Grande Pubah meets with a handful of firms.

CSL Australia on a roll

Do you find my blog helpful and informative? Drop me a line Duratek@yahoo.com

D

N95 MASK

3 M daddy

OUR CLUSTER FED PREPARES FOR SUPER FLU

Feds Prepare for Super-Flu Disaster

By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer Sun Oct 9, 3:54 AM ET

WASHINGTON - A super-flu could kill up to 1.9 million Americans, according to a draft of the government's plan to fight a worldwide epidemic. Officials are rewriting that plan to designate not just who cares for the sick but who will keep the country running amid the chaos, said an influenza specialist who is advising the government on those decisions.


"How do you provide food, water ... basic security for the population?" asked Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, a government adviser who has a copy of the draft plan and described it for The Associated Press.

"This is a much more comprehensive view than has previously been detailed," he said in an interview Saturday.

The Bush administration has spent the last year updating its plan for how to fight the next flu pandemic. While it is impossible to say when one will strike, the fear is that the bird flu in Asia could trigger one if it mutates to start spreading easily among people.

A recent draft of the plan, first reported Saturday by The New York Times, models what might happen based on the last century's three pandemics.

In a best-case scenario, about 200,000 people might die.

But if the next pandemic resembles the birdlike 1918 Spanish flu, as many as 1.9 million could die, Osterholm said. Millions more would be ill, overwhelming hospitals.
"You plan for the worst-case scenario," he said. "If it's less than that, thank God."

The government has on hand enough of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu to treat 4.3 million people. Manufacturing of $100 million worth of a bird flu vaccine just began. *(not a clue which company)

The draft makes clear that tens of millions more doses of each would be needed. That is far more than the world has the capacity to manufacture quickly.

To finish that draft plan, federal health officials for several weeks have been role-playing what would happen if a super-flu struck now — not next year, after more medicines and vaccines have been stockpiled.

The strategy, Osterholm said, is, "Don't emphasize what you can buy, emphasize what you can get your hands on. If it happens tonight, how do you deal with order?"

For example, health workers would need to wear special masks, known as N-95 masks, to prevent infection while treating patients. Two U.S. companies produce 90 percent of the world's supply and "we'll run out overnight," Osterholm said.

Also being considered is the possibility that Tamiflu will not be powerful enough to treat someone already sick, but could protect against illness if given beforehand. So who would get the 4.3 million doses?

Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt' recently met with Cabinet secretaries to get other federal agencies to determine their role in stemming rioting at vaccine clinics; when to close schools; how to keep gasoline, electricity, food and water supplies running; and how to manage the economic fallout.

State health officers also are being asked for input, Osterholm said.
"The HHS plan is going to be the foundation of a larger government-wide plan," said Leavitt's spokeswoman, Christina Pearson. "Beyond health care, there are issues with banks and schools, and that states and other place have to have their own plans."

Democrats have criticized the administration for not having a plan. Sen. Tom Harkin (news, bio, voting record), an Iowa Democrat, said in a statement Saturday that time for action was short.

"Having a plan on paper does nothing to protect us," Harkin said while urging the administration to work with Congress on implementing protections against a pandemic. "Next month is too late. The United States is woefully unprepared for this, and we must get started immediately."
___
On the Net:
Background on bird flu: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

**IMHO if a company HAS a vaccine now good for them , not sure who that is, but NVAX and SVA are on early stage R and D as I understand it, so IMHO those 2 stocks dont deserve to be bid up, though I like NVAX for a few other reasons. I have not bought it yet, I dont like chasing stocks nor buying them overbought. HEB is maybe interesting too, as it could be used WITH Tamiflu to make it better, so they say.

BIG BOY SNY may also come into play. Roche makes Tamiflu. I am not sure who if anyone actually has a FDA apprived vaccine for Avian as described in story, if so why didn't they mention the company?

I'm sure with some snooping you could uncover other ones. Is the GOV using this to get our mind off the Katrina cluster bleep? Or Iraq cluster bleep?

D

A REPUBLIC NOT AN EMPIRE

Posted: 7/7/2003
The Cost of Empire - U.S. Military Bases Overseasby Royce Carlson

The idea of United States military bases in other countries is accepted as normal by most Americans. This concept is, however, decidedly abnormal for the citizens of most countries. Can you imagine, say, a French military base in South Dakota? Or how about a Chinese military base in California? I don't think any American would be happy about a foreign military presence on our soil. Yet that is the case for the citizens of almost 60 countries and territories around the globe who have to live with a foreign military power in their midst.

Practically every time the United States is involved in a military action, the result is a permanent, or semi-permanent, military presence in or near the country involved. This has been going on since the Spanish American war, about a hundred years ago, when the bases in the Philippines and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba were built.

After World War II, the U.S. planted bases in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain. These bases still exist almost 60 years later. American bases in Korea have been in operation since the early 1950's. The United States has been reluctant to abandon any base once it acquired it. On the few occasions that the U.S. government did relinquish their presence in a country, it made up for it by opening more bases in neighboring countries. For example, the bases in Panama were given up in 1999 but replaced with bases in other Caribbean countries.
There are currently about 1,000 U.S. military bases and installations in foreign countries and territories. There are nearly 100,000 American troops in NATO countries alone. In addition to permanent bases, there are also temporary operations and exercises. According to the Defense Department, before September 11, 2001 operations involving approximately 60,000 troops in 100 countries were going on at any given time.

The number of U.S. bases abroad has fluctuated over the last 60 years from a maximum right after World War II, when there were nearly 2000 bases in 100 countries. Half of those were dismantled within five years. The number began increasing again with the onset of the Korean War and grew until after the Vietnam War. Since then the numbers decreased. By 1988 the number of bases was down to 794. The first Gulf War marked the beginning of an expansion that continues to this day.

Since 9/11 the number of American bases has increased dramatically. The war on Afghanistan allowed the United States to open bases in Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan. Following the ousting of Saddam Hussein, the Pentagon is planning to establish four US bases in Iraq. According to a World Tribune article in May of 2003, the U.S. has been probing North African countries for the purpose of establishing permanent bases there. It just opened the first North African base in Djibouti.

Now for the questions. Why are these bases there? What is the effect on global politics and the countries hosting these bases? Are America and the world safer because of American military bases overseas? Let’s go through these questions one at a time.

The easy answer to the first question is that the bases exist for the global projection of U.S. power and the protection of its interests abroad. When there is a military action overseas, bases are required to make deployment of troops and equipment practical. Each war produced a corresponding increase in bases in the area. Once a base is created, however, it tends to perpetuate itself.

According to a 1970 report issued by the Subcommittee on Security Agreements and Commitments Abroad, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, "Once an American overseas base is established it takes on a life of its own. Original missions may become outdated but new missions are developed, not only with the intention of keeping the facility going, but often to actually enlarge it." This tendency prompted Zoltan Grossman, in his article, "New US Military Bases: Side Effects or Causes of War?" to comment, "…the establishment of new bases may in the long run be more critical to U.S. war planners than the wars themselves."

The long-term presence of American bases on foreign soil creates some animosity amongst the populations. Protests of American military presence are common. Even though some populations are thrilled that Americans helped to liberate their countries via military action, bases that do not go away shortly after the war become an irritation. As mentioned above, some of these bases have been in operation for almost a hundred years. An American base can be a constant reminder that their country is somehow under the thumb of a foreign power – not necessarily good for national pride.

There are other consequences as well. There is a positive effect on the local economy when a base opens and during its existence. But economic growth might not always be seen as positive. The bases at Subic Bay in the Philippines, used mostly as a recreational facility for American soldiers deployed in the Far East, created a market for prostitution. It is estimated that, before the base closed in 1999, nearly 5,000 prostitutes made their living from the base. When bases are closed, local economies built over the years to serve the military personnel suffer due to the withdrawal of the troops.

Crime is a problem. The base on Okinawa was in the news not too long ago because a few American soldiers were accused of raping an Okinawan girl. Since the military has its own police and judicial system, the host countries complain that American soldiers who commit crimes overseas are not properly prosecuted and punishments are lenient if they happen at all.
Cultural clashes are another problem in some countries, and particularly with bases in the Middle East and Asia. American soldiers spread American culture. Some people welcome it and some resist. Inadvertent violation of local social codes is responsible for much misunderstanding between the people of a country and the military presence.

The presence of American bases presents problems for environmental cleanup. When a base is closed, the U.S. government abandons jurisdiction and responsibility. Bases have been closed leaving unexploded munitions, toxic waste dumps, and other dangerous situations. The host country is left to deal with this.

Are America and the world safer because of this extensive global network of military installations? We can never know what the world would have been like without American military bases in other countries but the answer is not a clear "yes." It’s a tough question.
After 9/11, when the hunt for Osama bin Laden was on, he released a tape claiming that one of the main reasons he and Al Qaeda considered the United States an enemy was because of the military bases in Saudi Arabia (considered the holy land for Islam). The presence of the bases may have protected U.S. interests from the likes of Saddam Hussein during the 12 years between their creation and now, but it also increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks from Al Qaeda.

It’s possible that America’s aggressive pursuit of a global military presence is actually putting Americans more at risk rather than less. The world may be a more dangerous place now because of the U.S. desire to militarily ensure that it remain the world’s only superpower. There may be other, more effective, means to promote world stability and American interests than the threat of "the big stick" that the U.S. military represents.

In closing, I would like to offer a final question. With a faltering economy, and social problems at home, can we afford to create and maintain a global empire at the expense of such important domestic responsibilities as educating our children, taking care of our sick and elderly, and improving our economy? The answer is critical to the future of America.
Resources and References

How American Power Girds the Globe with a Ring of Steel - by Ian Traynor http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/042303G.shtml
GlobeMaster Airbases Search Enginehttp://www.globemaster.de
U.S. Military Bases and Empire - Harry Magdoff, John Bellamy Foster, Robert W. McChesney, Paul Sweezyhttp://www.monthlyreview.org/0302editr.htm
U.S. Military Bases in Latin America and the Caribbean - by John Lindsay-Polandhttp://www.americaspolicy.org/briefs/2001/body_v6n35milbase.html
New US Military Bases: Side Effects or Causes of War? - by Zoltan Grossman http://www.counterpunch.org/zoltanbases.html
U.S. eyes permanent military bases in North Africa – WorldTribune.comhttp://216.26.163.62/2003/ss_military_05_06.html

A Republic, not an Empire America is a Constitutional Republic, not a democracy and certainly not an empire. While we as a nation have democratic processes in support of our Republic, nothing in our Constitution suggests that we are to be an empire. Further, when a Republic seeks to become an empire, it does so at the contempt of the law and the rule of law by which it seeks to operate.

*And if we are saying we will eventually LEAVE IRaq, then WHY are we speding BILLIONS to build PERMANENT MILITARY BASES THERE?

*As the worlds military super power is it any wonder these "terrorists" see us as the supporters to certain regiems whom terrorize their citenzenry? enslave them? AKA Saudi Arabia.

Under the guise of Religion, g-d has belssed one GW BUSH to go forward and multiply? F NO!

It's all going to unravel as the lemming American public sleeps and nods in approval as our Constitution gets trampled as the bend over Congress nods in approval and rubber stamps instead of defiantly defending our Constitution.

We have military bases in 177 Countries?? Sounds like EMPIRE building to me! ALL this to protect our freedom at home? Is that why we are wittingly helping to build up the chinese military empire?

D

VIEW OF DOW FROM THE MOON

Russell Friday showed 20 and 40 month , his "secret chart". How about 200 and 400 WK, and we see even more detail of where we are headed, IMHO.

For the first time in over a decade, we have convergence of these 2 very long term trend lines/moving averages. and IF the market VIOLATES these ti could be a very very very long way down.

yes something is rotten in the USA, with G. Bush at the helm, not helped much by CLinton or any previous poobah, the sins of our fathers at some point will come DUE!

The interest alone on national debt is CHOKING us as the FLIPPERS see only green skies.....and I Say....look out below. Hey Matt, have a great weekend BRUDDAH!!! you too P1.

Duratek

STEP AWAY FROM THE DOW

*click on chart to enlarge*

Action now taking place below the 20WK moving average, and instead of a rising 20 month(80wk) and 40 month as in previous "secular" bull, we see the 80WK turning over both flattening. And IMHO this is an early warning signal.

Please notice how the MACD (momentum indicator) since 2004 top has registered lowered tops. This is BEARISH action my friends, DO NOT ignore this.

For those who read Richard Russell, this Friday he mentioned how the GOV was trying to "inflate debt away". Other option or potential is to have debt DEFAULTED away with massive bankruptcies. Some of the marginal lenders are going to get crushed, I notice aggresive lender COF has turned down just recently.

FNM stock has been decimated. And there is NO stock leadership to the upside. Isn't a test of WK (under 10K) coming?

I don't think y0u can "inflate" debt away, what happens is that pressure of "inflation" DRIVES UP LONG TERM INTEREST RATES and that doesn't inflate them away, those on adj mortgages etc would be put under severed pressure with savings not available.

You saw how savings DROPPED a HUGE $20B last week? WOW

If consumers have lost faith in crack smoking BUSH, and his henchmen Haliburton no bid DICK, cundaleza Race, with squinty eyed bastard holding up the rear, and consumer sentiment drops like a stone, faith in Gov rocked, faith in economy rocked, isn't the stock market going to play CATCH UP to those sentiments?

Near 300 WEEKS ofcontinuous bullish sentiment plurality only sperated by a brief bearish 9 week total plurality, my goodness folks last bear mkt bottomed with 40 STRAIGHT WEEKS of bearish plurality (IIAA POLL), there is a HEAP of bullishness to feed on and IMHO secures this to be a SECULAR BEAR MARKET of historic nature. BRINGING tons of pain for those ill prepared.

WATCH interest rates, could be key! FOllowed in next post is another chart no one is looking at but you and me! and its....free.

D

LAST WORD WEEKEND WIT

OK one little post!

From Doug Noland Credit Bubble:

Although bullion jumped $5.55 (to another 17-year high), the HUI gold index declined 1% this week.

Treasuries were unimpressive in the face of weak global equity markets. For the week, two-year Treasury yields added one basis point to 4.18%. Five-year government yields rose 3 basis points to 4.22%. Bellwether 10-year yields added two basis points for the week to 4.35%. Long-bond yields were about unchanged at 4.57%. The spread between 2 and 10-year government yields widened one basis point to 17.


More:
Broad money supply (M3) jumped $20.3 billion to a record $9.984 Trillion (week of September 26), with a noteworthy 19-week gain of $359 billion, or 10.2% annualized. Year-to-date, M3 has expanded at a 7.1% rate, with M3-less Money Funds expanding at an 8.0% pace. For the week, Currency added $1.3 billion. Demand & Checkable Deposits jumped $13.6 billion. Savings Deposits dropped $21.0 billion. **(WOOOOOOOOFFFF ???savings dropped equal to Fed goose?)

And THIS from Doug:

There are major Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere developments in the offing. There’s too much Credit being created and much of it misallocated. There is, as well, excessive and destabilizing speculation. These Credit Bubble facets - seemingly innocuous for quite some time - are finally imparting conspicuously deleterious effects on an increasingly maladjusted Economic Sphere. For good reason, the Fed is getting nervous. No longer can Federal Reserve and Wall Street analysts simply ignore Financial Sphere developments. And global central bankers have at this point surely given up hope that the Global Financial Sphere would commence the process of returning to some semblance of order and sustainability with the imminent slowdown in U.S. housing finance. Not only has U.S. mortgage growth accelerated this year, global central bankers are today facing the prospect of a global energy crises and systemic liquidity-induced asset Bubbles. They now likely recognize that ultra-loose global monetary conditions have lasted far too long and accommodated precarious excesses.

It’s going to be a very interesting – and I’ll bet tumultuous - fourth quarter. Central bankers are nervous connoting that the leveraged players are anxious. And this week did have the feel that the leveraged speculating community “boat” began again to rock back and forth a bit – the energy markets, the currencies, global equities, gold… And when the boat starts to rock and we know that there are too many on the boat and too many all huddled together for safekeeping, well – unexpected things are bound to happen.

**OK Now did you catch 48 hours special on the "Housing MArket"?? last night??

It talked about how speculators or FLIPPERS have gone wild. LIke a Ponzi scheme, someone/s will LOSE, the last one's in and the idiot banks who loaned them. HOW EASY "to buy a CONDO pre construction and sell for $100K profit when complete..." FLIP FLOP FLIP FLOP!!!!

ALL this created by the easy money FED policies, extreme bubble behaviour like the bubble tech salad days, hey anyone can do it! and they are!!!

SO, maybe not In Montana, but in many areas, specially the coasts, prices are being driven up unnaturally by these flippers and it can't last in fact it is probably over. And this activity gives a false reading IMHO to money supply.

And it has caused an OVERSUPPLY and OVERBUILDING to occur in certain areas like Miami CONDO WORLD!

DUCK AND COVER, GET THE F OUT OF THE WAY of the coming finacial TSUNAMI, BLACK HOLE and EBOLI crisis. Worry about bird flu?? Better worry about our banking system and the $10 trillion in dirivitives.

THE action in home market has been unhealthy, and hasn't even led to normal wage growth this time around. Now you see savings continue to leak, not a good thing....Martha.

D

STEALTH TAX

http://safehaven.com/article-3898.htm
Duratek

SPINNING WHEELS

To hear it from Kudlow and Co. and whatever guest he ever has, "world economy is bitchin'!" "We got growth all over the world and the world housing BOOM is just getting started..." " not too late to buy ccommodities"

Looking at price of copper and gold etc, it sure looks good! And Kudlow could be right, he suggests buying copper stocks etc, but then why the reluctance f the US stock markets to get on board?

WHy the hosing of US home building stocks? Why are retailers weak?

Reason, 3 years into cyclical bull, the game of asset inflation is getting old. Talk by the FED about inflation is fanning gold fever, and maybe even this gold breakout is the real thing, but then this wouldn't be the same setup as the 70's too little capacity to cover too many dollars, it is quite the opposite.

So I Understand what is driving the price of gold, inflation caused by energy prices and a housing bubble, but I don't see wages out of control nor lack of supply or capacity, so IMHO this too shall pass.

A day doesn't go by now without Avian Flu story, local cable even the President is talking it up.

SO what do we get from our BUSH led Gov to help us with energy crisis?

An energy bill with tax giveaways to big oil, and now a bill to spur building of new refineries, with more tax breaks and relaxation of pollution controls!

Not a PEEP about conservation, nor mandating increase in MPG per vehicle, NOR speeding up adaptation of HYBRID models instead of pie in the sky promises of hydroegn economy, a sham as it now takes MORE fossil fuel to produce same amount of hrdrogen and its very expensive.

Yields seem reluctant to give up recent gains, putting more pressure on consumers.

As always consumers hold the key.

The stock market went nowhere today, new lows still outpaced highs 102 to only 38 highs!

Brokerage upgrades EMC today at $13, at no time from when it was $100 back in 2000 did it get a sell! Nor did at $3 it get a buy. WHATEVER these jokers say about stocks........fugitaboutit.

WE need to make investments in capital equipment to get healthy, we need to do this from savings, we have negative savings. I think the FED is buying back their own bonds trying to hedge down rates from rising too fast, because foreign buyers have cut back.

Our government is failing us, and maybe what comes out of this is the realization that this 2 party system ain't working, giving us too many LAME Presidents, and where a 3rd party basically has NO SHOT to be heard.

GOV is getting larger and larger even under Republican rule, even more so. ALL that happens is pie gets redistributed.

Div tax cut hasn't improved company payouts still barely 2% yield. BUT Bill Gates certainly thanks you.



Duratek

HELMET TIME?

My gut tells me we are walking on thin ice here! Technicals poor, buying interest waning. Complacent investors told to sit still and tight.

And is the door of opportunity (meaning get out of dodge) slowly closing and when no bids are coming, prices can plunge spasmodically, without warning and fedd on itself.

I think if 10K falls in any meaningful way, even a blindfolded lemming might get the hint.

D

LEGACY OF GREENSPAN

"Price acceleration" is an economics term describing the worst kind of vicious cycle in which prices push up wages which in turn push up prices, with the process accelerating through anticipation eventually into hyperinflation, the killer of economies and political systems.

*This is NOT happening now, we are experiencing the weakest recovery in history in terms of wage growth. READ more on greenspan so maybe we have STAGFLATION.

Who's been sleeping in my bed? not just right. and isn't Greenspan again raising rates at just the worst time?

D

Confirmation?

This indicator helped define the 2002 bottom, the index follows econmomic vitality and strength of consumer.

1.18 low is 2 ticks away, a break of could confirm a tough XMAS reatil, and lower prices.

Already there is talk of "cutting" prices to attract shoppers, that's deflationary talk!
Yet it is inflation of the things we MUST have that is giving the consumer the blues.
Nat Gas is 50% above recent prices, and notonly will it crimp disposable income this winter but it is destroying many a corporate profit.

Work week wont budge. Go here for each weeks DATA
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
SHows consumer ccredit exploded last month by $10B !

A peak of the http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
BLS employment model

AUG high of 10yr to watch is 4.435 this AM 4.416%.

MISC:
Bush talk TOUGH on IRAQ, he isnt paying the price our boys are
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051007/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

No confidence in BUSH, no confidence in Congress, while I post I hear another blurb about coming PANDEMIC (great moral booster) FLU, IRAQ quagmire, key Republican officials investigated, still NO BID contracts, we're spending near $6B a week in IRAQ. MArket is NOT climbing this "wall of worry" its slipping the Katrina Bull slope.

I have said many times, thinking of what takes the Bull down, and I kept coming up with same thing, INTEREST RATES! COnsidering the ediface of debt we are under, and the incredable need for Foreign Gov to buy our debt, we are at extreme risk here.

ALL this coming with 154 weeks straight of bullish plurality sentiment. SO I wont say chicken little, but I will say, the market is on more shakey ground than the sediment that helped build N.O.

My opinions mean diddley, let's watch the market and see where support is, as we hit a 5 to 1 ratio yesterday of new lows to highs.

Resetting bull? who knows, but unusual behaviour if so. Remember we are now 3 years into bull cycle, no bear mkt bottom data have been fullfilled, I hope the worst doesnt lie ahead, but it could.

Where to hide? what to do? Even thebest minds wrestle with this, I suspect the best thing to do is to raise cash levels, be liquid, control debt, believe half of what "they " tell you. And if you are a friend of Matt, listen to him!.....and drink a few beers, try and keep your sense of humor.

OH, good call Bush, of ALL people, he puts forward his own personal LAWYER for bench seat!

Duratek

THE US ECONOMY

Is there any doubt my friends that Greenspan legacy is one of trading one asset inflation for another?

Is there any doubt (full essay) what has SUSTAINED consumers?

Is there reason to worry now?

Duratek

CALIF DREAMIN'

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Soaring prices in California's housing market have shut out a record 86 percent of households from buying a typical home with a traditional down-payment, according to a study released Thursday.

Home prices across California have more than doubled since late 2001, increasing pressure on home buyers, who needed a minimum household income of $133,800 to buy a home at the August median price of $568,890, the California Association of Realtors said in its report.

That meant that only 14 percent of households could afford the typical home, down from 18 percent a year earlier, and the lowest level since records began in 1989, the report said.

The group's calculation was based on a mortgage interest rate of 5.87 percent and assumed a 20 percent down payment. The national minimum household income needed to buy a median-priced home at $220,000 last month was $51,740, the group said.

"It certainly is a concern when we reach a record low for affordability," said association economist Robert Kleinhenz.

August's affordability reading matched a record low 14 percent recorded in early 1989, shortly before a downturn in property prices that began in mid-1991.

**Also many are using 40 even 50% of disposable income to get into a house up from avg 30% more typical.

D,,,,,,looking for a bump out of gate and a weakening close

"INFLATION ROBS US"

Ever get that feeling?

Fed's Fisher Says `Inflation Virus' Must Be Stopped upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone.''
Fisher and other Fed policy makers suggested earlier this week that the central bank may have to raise interest rates further to tame inflation stoked by a post-hurricane surge in energy prices.
``Money flows are an economy's lifeblood, and the Federal Reserve's great responsibility lies in maintaining the cardiovascular system of American capitalism,'' said Fisher, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
The Fed can't allow an ``inflation virus'' to ``infect the blood supply and poison the system. Inflation robs us of all that we might otherwise produce with a sound currency.''

**I find this AMUSING, isn't it the FED who has gutted our dollar by printing it into oblivion?????!!!!!!! What the F is this joker talking about? He NEW on the job? WHat's he take us for a bunch of mindless lemmings?

ALL these central bankers help put us here and now they are up in arms??

GOLD is REACTING IMHO to these comments, and it caused a ripple in the dollar today. CONSTANT FED alarms on inflation are getting old when the avg American has been feeling the pinch every waking moment!

Gold is reacting to today, while the HUI still stands with a triple top possible topped out range, SIlver sits well below previous highs. ODD

Interest rates have been manipulated and kept low far too long, and now when we need them low they are rising! ALREADY housing stocks are warning of a piercing of the housing bubble or at least an ending of the boom.

WHAT is going to rebound consumer sentiment? a speach from Bush? how about his Impeachment?

How about a CRAZY call for near 500K on employment data FRI?

Duratek