http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/blog-traffic-reading-complacent/ Blog traffic
First 100 days? How aout OVER EXPOSED?
Market at interesting juncture here, I will come up with a decent chart by tomorrow to show what I am lookin gat, take care,
D
Thursday, April 30, 2009
WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS or Baltic Dry INdex and who cares
"The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea"
Friends, raw materials is what goes into making THINGS.....the BDI RISES when DEMAND FOR THINGS causes increased purchasing of the stuff to make things.....do YOU see a VAST improvement here?
Baltic Dry isn't a Latvian deodorant or an Estonian cocktail. Rather, it's a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouse in London's financial district in 1744.
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/ by Daniel Gross
The BDI is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.
SPX 200 EMA is around 965 and sure we could carry to there, sure this rally if gotten in early was a money maker......but the jury is still out to if the BEAR has been defeated....IMHO all I can tell is we are bouncing from news driven by the thinnest of premises.I'm in retail and I cant wait to be proven wrong and stubbornly pessimistic.... watch UYG still below recent high near $3.90 and VIX now below 35....
Duratek
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
FED COMMENTS AND GDP
Federal Reserve policymakers said at the end of a two-day meeting Wednesday that while the economy is still receding, the pace of decline "appears to be somewhat slower" than the last time they met in mid-March.
NEW YORK – The Fed confirmed what Wall Street has already concluded: The recession is starting to ease.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent, much steeper than the 5 percent forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Investors were encourage by a rebound in consumer spending (loss of 6M jobs really?), which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and a drop in business inventories. (BIZ adds inv when possitive about economy)
"BETTER THAN EXPECTED"
Better-than-expected earnings have been boosting the market as well. Media conglomerate Time Warner Inc. said its first-quarter profit fell 14 percent on deteriorating ad sales, but the results were better than expected.
Meanwhile, Citigroup, which has also received large amounts of federal aid, is trying to figure out how to retain workers. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit has talked with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner about the possibility of paying special bonuses to keep demoralized workers from getting scooped up by competitors, a person familiar with the matter said.
TNX (10 yr note) could be ready to explode its 200 EMA is 31.23 near high of the day....leading to higher int rates. (EOD 30.96)
SPX 200 EMA is 953.80 (EOD 873)
TRANS 200 EMA 3489
I note this rally is coming on declining volume.
UYG (long financials) has yet to really break out. April high is $3.90 (EOD $3.56)
http://financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.html Perfect storm series
NEW YORK – The Fed confirmed what Wall Street has already concluded: The recession is starting to ease.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent, much steeper than the 5 percent forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Investors were encourage by a rebound in consumer spending (loss of 6M jobs really?), which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and a drop in business inventories. (BIZ adds inv when possitive about economy)
"BETTER THAN EXPECTED"
Better-than-expected earnings have been boosting the market as well. Media conglomerate Time Warner Inc. said its first-quarter profit fell 14 percent on deteriorating ad sales, but the results were better than expected.
Meanwhile, Citigroup, which has also received large amounts of federal aid, is trying to figure out how to retain workers. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit has talked with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner about the possibility of paying special bonuses to keep demoralized workers from getting scooped up by competitors, a person familiar with the matter said.
TNX (10 yr note) could be ready to explode its 200 EMA is 31.23 near high of the day....leading to higher int rates. (EOD 30.96)
SPX 200 EMA is 953.80 (EOD 873)
TRANS 200 EMA 3489
I note this rally is coming on declining volume.
UYG (long financials) has yet to really break out. April high is $3.90 (EOD $3.56)
http://financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.html Perfect storm series
GDP DATA THAT SPURS A RALLY? Buyer Beware
Highlights
First quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change. Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.
The business data in GDP were terrible. Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate. Nonresidential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate. Both of these categories will continue lower. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.
Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38.0% annual rate.
Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted. This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
First quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change. Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.
The business data in GDP were terrible. Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate. Nonresidential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate. Both of these categories will continue lower. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.
Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38.0% annual rate.
Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted. This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
SIDEWAYS
CLICK TO ENLARGE CHART*Month of April has consisted of sideways action, so is this digestion of rally or inability to move above Resistance zones and trading area is about to give way?
I think I can safely saythis is bear market rally, what I cannot say 100% is that it is done. But I do have some parameters set up that should tell us soon enough.
FED rah rah meeting is usually bullish to non commital, when done true trend will resume.
D
REASON TO CHEER
Home Prices Post 18.6 Percent Annual Drop in Feb.- AP
A widely watched housing index shows home prices dropped in February, but for the first time in 16 months the decline was not a record.
GOTTA love those silver linings....
D
A widely watched housing index shows home prices dropped in February, but for the first time in 16 months the decline was not a record.
GOTTA love those silver linings....
D
Monday, April 27, 2009
TIME FOR CAUTION
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/technical-indicators-scream-caution.html
The divergences continue as the rally loses steam and gets older and Bird Flu scare aside, the market is ready to retrace at a bear minimum, some of the gains off the lows.
There is SCANT REAL DATA of any uptick in the REAL ECONOMY, lending standards have stiffened, millions have lost jobs and no longer putting into 401K's, IPO's scarce, investment scarce, Gov and FED programs have had little effect.
Many think bear has been put asleep, but I have no technical data, in fact it is much alive. We have yet to challenge the 200 EMA......when this rally fades, see who steps up to plate, sure isnt avg Koe.
D
The divergences continue as the rally loses steam and gets older and Bird Flu scare aside, the market is ready to retrace at a bear minimum, some of the gains off the lows.
There is SCANT REAL DATA of any uptick in the REAL ECONOMY, lending standards have stiffened, millions have lost jobs and no longer putting into 401K's, IPO's scarce, investment scarce, Gov and FED programs have had little effect.
Many think bear has been put asleep, but I have no technical data, in fact it is much alive. We have yet to challenge the 200 EMA......when this rally fades, see who steps up to plate, sure isnt avg Koe.
D
Friday, April 24, 2009
NEW HIGH FOR ADJ M BASE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf more divergences appear in price vs demand.....when it breaks I think the break will be HARD DOWN 870 ish for SPX is R
D
D
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
ACTION JACKSON
Despite todays TRIPLE DIGIT rally, when compared to yesterdays 90% NYSE downer, it was weak.
Usually after a 90% down day you will get a few days of rally, and if today was selective of what is to follow, I do not think the decline is done.
Geithner speaks? big deal. The COVER UP continues.
D
Usually after a 90% down day you will get a few days of rally, and if today was selective of what is to follow, I do not think the decline is done.
Geithner speaks? big deal. The COVER UP continues.
D
MASSIVE COVER UP AND FRAUD
Crimes Suspected In 20 Bailout Cases
Tuesday, April 21, 2009Los Angeles Times
In the first major disclosure of corruption in the $750-billion financial bailout program, federal investigators said Monday they have opened 20 criminal probes into possible securities fraud, tax violations, insider trading and other crimes.The cases represent only the first wave of investigations, and the total fraud could ultimately reach into the tens of billions of dollars, according to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the bailout program.The disclosures reinforce fears that the hastily designed and rapidly changing bailout program run by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve is going to carry a heavy price of fraud against taxpayers -- even as questions grow about its ability to stabilize the nation's financial system.
Barofsky said the complex nature of the bailout program makes it "inherently vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, including significant issues relating to conflicts of interest facing fund managers, collusion between participants, and vulnerabilities to money laundering."The report said little about who is under investigation and how the fraudulent schemes work, but investigators are already on alert for a long list of potential scams. Such schemes could include obtaining bailout money under false pretenses, bilking the government with phony mortgage modifications, and cheating on taxes with fraudulent filings.
Former Bank Regulator Wm Black was interviewed on PBS recently, he says the reason Bank execs have not been replaced is if they did an honest man might try to get to bottom of the issues, abuses and they DON’T WANT THAT!
WHY did $12 B go thought AIG directly to Goldman Sachs? And on top of that GS had a huge SHORT on AIG and got paid for that too!?
How can the banks be reporting “better than expected results recently” prompting CNBC clowns and ADM officials to quip,,,,,” the worse may be over, proof its getting better”
What they forgot to tell people was an NEW accounting change for GS took DEC figures (and they were bad) off the reporting qtr. And now the banks are free to mark their holdings to a value they see fit vs Mark to Mkt. WHY would FASB do away with mark to market acct? Because it would show most banks INSOLVANT as we speak.
NO oversight? Of a TRILLION $$$?? Who is that stupid? OH our elected officials. DIDN’T READ THE DAMN BILL? Who is that stupid or lazy? OH our elected officials.
If the American public doesn’t wake up now when will they and get mad?
Tuesday, April 21, 2009Los Angeles Times
In the first major disclosure of corruption in the $750-billion financial bailout program, federal investigators said Monday they have opened 20 criminal probes into possible securities fraud, tax violations, insider trading and other crimes.The cases represent only the first wave of investigations, and the total fraud could ultimately reach into the tens of billions of dollars, according to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the bailout program.The disclosures reinforce fears that the hastily designed and rapidly changing bailout program run by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve is going to carry a heavy price of fraud against taxpayers -- even as questions grow about its ability to stabilize the nation's financial system.
Barofsky said the complex nature of the bailout program makes it "inherently vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, including significant issues relating to conflicts of interest facing fund managers, collusion between participants, and vulnerabilities to money laundering."The report said little about who is under investigation and how the fraudulent schemes work, but investigators are already on alert for a long list of potential scams. Such schemes could include obtaining bailout money under false pretenses, bilking the government with phony mortgage modifications, and cheating on taxes with fraudulent filings.
Former Bank Regulator Wm Black was interviewed on PBS recently, he says the reason Bank execs have not been replaced is if they did an honest man might try to get to bottom of the issues, abuses and they DON’T WANT THAT!
WHY did $12 B go thought AIG directly to Goldman Sachs? And on top of that GS had a huge SHORT on AIG and got paid for that too!?
How can the banks be reporting “better than expected results recently” prompting CNBC clowns and ADM officials to quip,,,,,” the worse may be over, proof its getting better”
What they forgot to tell people was an NEW accounting change for GS took DEC figures (and they were bad) off the reporting qtr. And now the banks are free to mark their holdings to a value they see fit vs Mark to Mkt. WHY would FASB do away with mark to market acct? Because it would show most banks INSOLVANT as we speak.
NO oversight? Of a TRILLION $$$?? Who is that stupid? OH our elected officials. DIDN’T READ THE DAMN BILL? Who is that stupid or lazy? OH our elected officials.
If the American public doesn’t wake up now when will they and get mad?
Monday, April 20, 2009
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Bank of America Corp. managed to avoid a loss in the first quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations and providing further evidence the banking sector might be improving.
But the bank also took a hefty $13.4 billion provision for loan losses and its shares fell 55 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $10.05 in premarket trading.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based company earned $2.81 billion after paying preferred dividends, or 44 cents per share, compared with a profit of $1.02 billion, 23 cents per share, in the year ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected profit of 4 cents per share.
The higher-than-expected earnings could take some pressure off Chief Executive Ken Lewis who has faced calls from some shareholders to either give up his job as chairman or be ousted.
*good thing mark to mkt is gone.....wow cant beleive a profit.......hmm guess profits arent what they used to be
* Large Corporate Leasing Company (whisper) is going to downsize here......I thought idea was to loosen lending....what gives
D
But the bank also took a hefty $13.4 billion provision for loan losses and its shares fell 55 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $10.05 in premarket trading.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based company earned $2.81 billion after paying preferred dividends, or 44 cents per share, compared with a profit of $1.02 billion, 23 cents per share, in the year ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected profit of 4 cents per share.
The higher-than-expected earnings could take some pressure off Chief Executive Ken Lewis who has faced calls from some shareholders to either give up his job as chairman or be ousted.
*good thing mark to mkt is gone.....wow cant beleive a profit.......hmm guess profits arent what they used to be
* Large Corporate Leasing Company (whisper) is going to downsize here......I thought idea was to loosen lending....what gives
D
Thursday, April 16, 2009
WHERE IS THE SUPPORTIVE DATA?
More Lousy News on Housing *(briefing.com)
Last Update: 16-Apr-09 08:53 ET
Expectations for further glimmers of hope on the housing front took a hit this morning. The March housing data were not pretty.
Starts dropped 10.8% to a 510,000 annual rate from 572,000 in February. The level is not as low as the 488,000 dismal January number, but still the second lowest of this cycle.
The March level is well below expectations of about a 540,000 level and below the three-month average of 539,000 the three prior months.
Housing permits gave no indication of an imminent upturn. Permits fell 9.0% to a 513,000 annual rate. This is the lowest level of the current cycle and below the 547,000 average of the three prior months.
There is no reason not to take the data at face value as an indication that housing remains in a deep slump and that sporadic signs of stabilization have to be viewed with caution.
Last Update: 16-Apr-09 08:53 ET
Expectations for further glimmers of hope on the housing front took a hit this morning. The March housing data were not pretty.
Starts dropped 10.8% to a 510,000 annual rate from 572,000 in February. The level is not as low as the 488,000 dismal January number, but still the second lowest of this cycle.
The March level is well below expectations of about a 540,000 level and below the three-month average of 539,000 the three prior months.
Housing permits gave no indication of an imminent upturn. Permits fell 9.0% to a 513,000 annual rate. This is the lowest level of the current cycle and below the 547,000 average of the three prior months.
There is no reason not to take the data at face value as an indication that housing remains in a deep slump and that sporadic signs of stabilization have to be viewed with caution.
DECAY CONTINUES
Historic real estate failure
The second largest mall owner in the U.S. files for bankruptcy protection. » More than 200 malls
Suicide bomber kills 16 and wounds 50 at base in western Iraq we wont leave as scheduled.
Number of child abuse cases surge as U.S. economy flounders fabric of society crumbling
New jobless claims fall to 610,000; continuing claims hit 6 million good news bad or bad news bad news
BUT I suspect TRADING PROFITS (rally) have led to JPM earnings "surprise"....off we go
D
The second largest mall owner in the U.S. files for bankruptcy protection. » More than 200 malls
Suicide bomber kills 16 and wounds 50 at base in western Iraq we wont leave as scheduled.
Number of child abuse cases surge as U.S. economy flounders fabric of society crumbling
New jobless claims fall to 610,000; continuing claims hit 6 million good news bad or bad news bad news
BUT I suspect TRADING PROFITS (rally) have led to JPM earnings "surprise"....off we go
D
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
WILD EYED OPTIMIST
WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve said Wednesday there are some faint signs the steep plunge in economic activity that began last fall is starting to level off.
The Fed's latest survey of business conditions nationwide found five of its 12 regional banks reporting a moderation in the pace of the economic decline.
Several regions "saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level ... (but) overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak," the Fed said.
The Fed's latest survey of business conditions nationwide found five of its 12 regional banks reporting a moderation in the pace of the economic decline.
Several regions "saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level ... (but) overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak," the Fed said.
5 REASONS GIVEN FOR "LIGHT"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090415/pl_politico/21259 NO HUGE SELLING PUSH has showed up so unless soon....just a correction to rally not officially dead yet
D
D
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