US $ has lost support, is it down to the lows now? at some point this will be a problem....
D
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
"WHAT WE CAN LEARN AS JAPAN'S ECONOMY SINKS"
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-09-16/110251471.html Andy Xie
Folks we have PAPERED OVER the Banking problems, nothing much has changed.....they go to discount window for free, buy the bonds at 3.4% and collect the dough....so they can get healthy? but not MUCH incentive to make loans to you or me.
A simple accounting TRICK (end of Mark To Market accounting) has made, so it would seem, all those bad loans, well disaapear or reaapear at 90% of face value.....Houdini sit down or is that Rasputin? Again I will argue to last breathe any Bank profits are a myth and a lie...ONLY the FED is buying that POS paper? NO LIQUID market for them? 9 of 10 home loans now from GOV ENTITIES??? some for little dough down again!???? shesshh
Smart people.....with LESS money...what is left to repoof? what is left to influence? stocks
My friends, from the worst financial crisis in history, from the most overbloated debt in history and as % of GDP......we get the highest % rally from a Recession in thehistory of the stock market? well YES
D
Folks we have PAPERED OVER the Banking problems, nothing much has changed.....they go to discount window for free, buy the bonds at 3.4% and collect the dough....so they can get healthy? but not MUCH incentive to make loans to you or me.
A simple accounting TRICK (end of Mark To Market accounting) has made, so it would seem, all those bad loans, well disaapear or reaapear at 90% of face value.....Houdini sit down or is that Rasputin? Again I will argue to last breathe any Bank profits are a myth and a lie...ONLY the FED is buying that POS paper? NO LIQUID market for them? 9 of 10 home loans now from GOV ENTITIES??? some for little dough down again!???? shesshh
Smart people.....with LESS money...what is left to repoof? what is left to influence? stocks
My friends, from the worst financial crisis in history, from the most overbloated debt in history and as % of GDP......we get the highest % rally from a Recession in thehistory of the stock market? well YES
D
looking for love in all the right places
Another good day for the markets, only the Transports felt left out for the most part. Let's depart from our usual fundamental reasoning and see if we can find a LOGICAL topping area for this rally, and this is one possible interpretation.
Click to enlarge, chart is self explanatory. Most of my trader friends, who don't believe the hype, but do like to take a ride now and again no matter, have been paring back.......some have left the party not wanting to "leave it on the table again" IT'S not a profit until you sell.
Not many signs of MAJOR TOP from this rally, some warning signs creeping in, and the fact only mild breathers taken leave the market open for increased volatility going forward....it is pricing in some major good economic future, IMHO
Looking at MA's TA it's hard to argue...what's the problem dude? Overstaying the party, knowing when enough is enough is a good skill to own....especially IF, IF this is not a beginning of a MAJOR NEW BULL MKT. ANYTHING is possible, well it could be, I have voiced my doubts.
Loking back again at my 2002-2003 study, the bottom had a beautiful back test in 2003, the SPX actually coming close to previous bottom....off she went...not this time NO TEST just V....the DATA doesn't back up a V, but so far we got one.
Short term tresuries should be screaming higher, yet they yield next to nothing....BRAINIAC THE ORACLE NOW FINALLY BUYING (lately his timing sucks) while BILL GROSS the bond king adds heavily to bonds...the most in last 5 years!
If the "people on the sidelines" in cash, mostly in MM;s.....is this the dumb money? or will it turn out to be prudent move even though to this point lots of crow sandwhiches.
Home sales of reg priced homes not doing that great, most after the cheaper foreclosed ones...tax credit running out in NOV.
GOLD is soaring, is the FED risking inflation ? why isnt it reflected in BONDS?
(economic revival)
My nephew just came by talking to me...he works for me.....we're trying to HOLD ON HERE in retail ville office furniture.....it has been BRUTAL....sorry some of my pessimism stems not just from I read and investigate, much of what I share here, some I cannot....but with my own 2 eyes....and ears......I'm sorry folks I dont see it here...when I DO prey g-d I'll tell you.
Game last weekend, NO KC press corps in the press boxes NONE NDADA.....budget cuts...no travel and this is last week.....that's pretty current.
HOW do you see Consumer is back in the box, in the saddle when desire for loans was cut by $200 Billion since JUly?
ALL those idle ships all over the world....did the Recession end in July?
Are all those underwater homes all of a sudden worth what people paid? Yet deliquencies continue to GROW in the credit card world, where most went to buy things as no place left...
BANKS TIGHTENING NOT LOSSENING standards......so credit is CONTRACTING...NOT EXPANDING
DIscussing with some stck friends...Jeff Cooper sees this all is part of a 60 yr cycle began in 1949........2009......
Maybe tomorrow I'll wake up and see I was so wrong, and all kinds of greend shoots are growing out of my ass....for now I see scorched earth and a lot of paper tinder covering it all up
D
GHOST ECONOMY
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/20094 Remember that ghost ship post....zero hedge has uncovered some more info, you really need to see this.
A bull may be a bull and Im happy for everyone whose 401K etc is doing better......but friends all I want is for our future to be based on SOUND ECONOMICS, real change.....not the BS I think we're seeing, getting, hearing.....for me, something doesn't add up here....a few somethings
Lending is DOWN.....savings rising, so consumer behavior is on the change, 10 yr yield is 3.4%....gold soaring above $1,000 US $ in the tank......few jobs available, 7.4 MILLION not the consumers they once were....we have PAPERED over the real issues.....up up and away
VIX still clinging to weekly support line, just barely
D
A bull may be a bull and Im happy for everyone whose 401K etc is doing better......but friends all I want is for our future to be based on SOUND ECONOMICS, real change.....not the BS I think we're seeing, getting, hearing.....for me, something doesn't add up here....a few somethings
Lending is DOWN.....savings rising, so consumer behavior is on the change, 10 yr yield is 3.4%....gold soaring above $1,000 US $ in the tank......few jobs available, 7.4 MILLION not the consumers they once were....we have PAPERED over the real issues.....up up and away
VIX still clinging to weekly support line, just barely
D
DID YOU KNOW
SPX 1060 is here....oddly (?) Transports now not at new high for move....keeping an eye on this situation.
LINK HERE TO INSIDER SELLING if anyone should know what is going on they should....
LINK TO MISH'S BLOG credit card defaults continue to rise...
Joseph Stiglitz WHAT WENT WRONG 1 YR LATER LINK
Duratek
LINK HERE TO INSIDER SELLING if anyone should know what is going on they should....
LINK TO MISH'S BLOG credit card defaults continue to rise...
Joseph Stiglitz WHAT WENT WRONG 1 YR LATER LINK
Duratek
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Northern Trust Article From Safe Haven
Northern Trust asessment LONG 48 pages charts and stuff "depression Avoided..."here's the LINK http://www.safehaven.com/pdf/kasriel_2009_09_15.pdf
SANTELLI GIVES A DOSE OF TRUTH
MY bullish friends I guess side woth the past face bald dude.....you aint getting here folks.....I'm the Santelli of the blogosphere....well to say I have SHITLOAD of respect for that man! what CNBC got 5 peopl watching now? SANTELLI should have his OWN SHOW....thanks Rick
As for mkts, more of the same make believe HOOYAHHH
D
TREND IS THY FRIEND
There are all kinds of trend, short term, intermediate and long term. Some things kept simple may be helpful in allowing you to disengage from the news and noise.
I like the 20 EMA avg and you can see here except one stint sideways it has been rising, which obviously means price is rising.
When the 20 flattens out you see that's where the small correction crept in....so I add the 5 MEA, when it crossed back up last time (blue arrow) they both rose and so did price.
ALL I can say here is, for now all looks pretty good from a long standpoint....cannot ever predict an EVENT....out of the blue or news event.....
If price declines enough the 20 will turn down (the 5 will cross down thru it.....) and price will correct until that is reversed........been awhile.....
D
THE ACCOUNTING OF THE BAILOUTS
NY TIMES ARTICLE AMAZING totaling over $12 TRILLION (I'm assuming of FUNNY MONEY!)
D....I'll KEEP digging for the truths and I've got lots of help.....
D....I'll KEEP digging for the truths and I've got lots of help.....
" OUT OF THIN AIR?"
above chart from ZERO HEDGE LINK HERE
ZERO HEDGE has been fighting the fight from day one to bring attention to the underlying truths that lay hidden from most of us, a super blog. Is not the stock market in a FREE MARKET SYSETM to be a reflection of current or pending life on the streets? WHAT happens when thestock market becomes the PLAY THING of the IN CROWD and GOV intervention? again I ask TAKE AWAY GOV STIMULUS (and thru PPT AKA GS and friends) and what do you have? a collapsed economy with a failed banking system. IMHO
D
HOT PPI NUMBER?
*FOOD AND OIL MAIN CUPLPRITS....does this look like INFLATION is rampant? I question ANY RETAIL SALES DATA considering at least 7 MILLION fewer avid consumers.....Take away cash for klunkers and first time homebuyers incentive, gov stimulus and we basically have no economy.....we're in deep shit! IMHO A rallying stockmarket are masking HUGE maladjustments.D
DOW WEEKLY CHART UPDATE
Are we headed for 10,000- 10,500 or so to begin sideways trading an potential right shoulder?
Will weekly VIX support hold?
WIll high BPSPX signal PB possible, no topping divergence as yet.
SOme trend lines to watch which may or may not be valid
Enterring Sept as if nothing bad could happen....
D
"QUALITY OVER HIGH BETA"
THE BIG PICTURE LINK so less bad is good, good may be real good.
A lot of firsts in this rally off the MArch lows, with so much of the volume coming from program trading, it is sometimes hard to discern where the buying is coming from, especially with such meager amounts coming from the avg Joe into his mutual fund portfolio.
There has been NO major challenge to this rally so far, many calling this a NEW BULL MKT and adding the Recession is likely over. SIgns of strength include ROBUST sales of new cars iN China, an amazing amount of STIMULUS has been applied, and usually at SOME POINT you don't fight the FED.
All this talk about Bank regulation IMHO is just talk, as long as the market continues its rally, even if from money borrowed at ZERO % and highly leveraged play which ends in HUGE Bank bonuses....it's all talk...what mostly this ADM is about.
It may be time if long to reduce exposure to high beta momo plays and consider more high quality companies with strong cash and those who have weathered the storm best so far....in most cases you aren'y going to recieve a meaningful dividend.
If market should begin to stumble, we will have SUPPORT areas to go over to see how it reacts and if any REAL SERIOUS SELLING and FOLLOW THRU develops.
For now, the market doesn't appear fragile or ready to roll over. NONE of us can forsee and unseen, unknown event that could move the market.....and crashes are RARE EVENTS.
My main bone of contention for a LONG TERM BULL MARKET is that no meaning ful reform of the financial system has taken place, and that TRUE valuations are being HIDDEN because of the drop of the Mark To Market Rule. WOuldn't it be great if we didn't have to OWN up to mistakes, and could show our compnay in better light if losses could be hidden off the books?
Problem is, big got bigger, and change that could lead to a freeing up of the credit markets and to investment haven't been made. We have a pattern as I have shown of contracting credit, we need the opposite.
Keeping this toxic "assets" on the books but not realizing their losses or drop in value from 90% of face, could be a MAJOR reason why the credit system is not working like it should, also BANKS will not be a free and open to lending as before, not going to take too many chances.....you have lousy cash flow, then STEP AWAY from the teller window, good chance the Bank is not going to help you.
We have at LEAST 7 MILLION fewer Americans employed and the demand they would have added to our economy is being made up in some part by Government Spending....IMHO creating even greater imbalances in our economy.
How do we get Americans working again? WHat if Consumers are going to SAVE MORE, meaning SPEND LESS....when our economy is 70% Consumer spending oriented?
Is the market pricing in too much blue skies of which there are not or does it see something I do not?
A REAL DISSCONNECT to realizing this new bull market is the picture the long bond is telling.....watch yields, watch the US $....for any unusual breaks.
Lots of data this AM. ALSO A new RECORD in visits to my blog 328 yesterday!! I understand that no one can be right 100% of time, I am not anyone's financial planner and always suggest you consult with a good one before doing anything. Others here are big boys and girls and trade ofr living, so you already are doing your own thing. But I will continue to make this an interesting place to come and do my best to offer something of value and the larger my following grows, the more pressure I feel to deliver for you.
I could easily change my focus and turn this into a stock picking sight, and only talk about my trades, but that can be seen as self serving when done after the fact....I rather let you continue looking into my thoughts and charts and my hope is for those not already doing so, get you to think about what is going on instead of just being caught in a swirl of activity.
YES, one can be fundamentally BEARISH and STILL make money trading long.....I will continue to present my point of view, that's why I'm here and I hope to continue offering something of value that keeps you coming back, this has been long journey for me and a lot of effort.
I've been accused of being SHORT, I AM NOT SHORT the market, but I am not long either. I prefer at this time for my OWN personal reasons and objectives to be on the sidelines PRESERVING CAPITAL, this is best for my OWN situation, others have taken this the wrong way.....Gold has been offering many some good trades last few months....there is perfect example of how to be long in a Bear mkt, now with ONLY 3% US $ BULLS.....and it may not matter but the odds do not favor a HUGE move up in gold under this backdrop IMHO.....as my trader friends already know USING STOPS will CUT LOSSES and PRESERVE PROFITS
Good trading to all, and best of luck f under stress in the economy I wish you well and hope good fortune is coming your way.
Duratek
A lot of firsts in this rally off the MArch lows, with so much of the volume coming from program trading, it is sometimes hard to discern where the buying is coming from, especially with such meager amounts coming from the avg Joe into his mutual fund portfolio.
There has been NO major challenge to this rally so far, many calling this a NEW BULL MKT and adding the Recession is likely over. SIgns of strength include ROBUST sales of new cars iN China, an amazing amount of STIMULUS has been applied, and usually at SOME POINT you don't fight the FED.
All this talk about Bank regulation IMHO is just talk, as long as the market continues its rally, even if from money borrowed at ZERO % and highly leveraged play which ends in HUGE Bank bonuses....it's all talk...what mostly this ADM is about.
It may be time if long to reduce exposure to high beta momo plays and consider more high quality companies with strong cash and those who have weathered the storm best so far....in most cases you aren'y going to recieve a meaningful dividend.
If market should begin to stumble, we will have SUPPORT areas to go over to see how it reacts and if any REAL SERIOUS SELLING and FOLLOW THRU develops.
For now, the market doesn't appear fragile or ready to roll over. NONE of us can forsee and unseen, unknown event that could move the market.....and crashes are RARE EVENTS.
My main bone of contention for a LONG TERM BULL MARKET is that no meaning ful reform of the financial system has taken place, and that TRUE valuations are being HIDDEN because of the drop of the Mark To Market Rule. WOuldn't it be great if we didn't have to OWN up to mistakes, and could show our compnay in better light if losses could be hidden off the books?
Problem is, big got bigger, and change that could lead to a freeing up of the credit markets and to investment haven't been made. We have a pattern as I have shown of contracting credit, we need the opposite.
Keeping this toxic "assets" on the books but not realizing their losses or drop in value from 90% of face, could be a MAJOR reason why the credit system is not working like it should, also BANKS will not be a free and open to lending as before, not going to take too many chances.....you have lousy cash flow, then STEP AWAY from the teller window, good chance the Bank is not going to help you.
We have at LEAST 7 MILLION fewer Americans employed and the demand they would have added to our economy is being made up in some part by Government Spending....IMHO creating even greater imbalances in our economy.
How do we get Americans working again? WHat if Consumers are going to SAVE MORE, meaning SPEND LESS....when our economy is 70% Consumer spending oriented?
Is the market pricing in too much blue skies of which there are not or does it see something I do not?
A REAL DISSCONNECT to realizing this new bull market is the picture the long bond is telling.....watch yields, watch the US $....for any unusual breaks.
Lots of data this AM. ALSO A new RECORD in visits to my blog 328 yesterday!! I understand that no one can be right 100% of time, I am not anyone's financial planner and always suggest you consult with a good one before doing anything. Others here are big boys and girls and trade ofr living, so you already are doing your own thing. But I will continue to make this an interesting place to come and do my best to offer something of value and the larger my following grows, the more pressure I feel to deliver for you.
I could easily change my focus and turn this into a stock picking sight, and only talk about my trades, but that can be seen as self serving when done after the fact....I rather let you continue looking into my thoughts and charts and my hope is for those not already doing so, get you to think about what is going on instead of just being caught in a swirl of activity.
YES, one can be fundamentally BEARISH and STILL make money trading long.....I will continue to present my point of view, that's why I'm here and I hope to continue offering something of value that keeps you coming back, this has been long journey for me and a lot of effort.
I've been accused of being SHORT, I AM NOT SHORT the market, but I am not long either. I prefer at this time for my OWN personal reasons and objectives to be on the sidelines PRESERVING CAPITAL, this is best for my OWN situation, others have taken this the wrong way.....Gold has been offering many some good trades last few months....there is perfect example of how to be long in a Bear mkt, now with ONLY 3% US $ BULLS.....and it may not matter but the odds do not favor a HUGE move up in gold under this backdrop IMHO.....as my trader friends already know USING STOPS will CUT LOSSES and PRESERVE PROFITS
Good trading to all, and best of luck f under stress in the economy I wish you well and hope good fortune is coming your way.
Duratek
Monday, September 14, 2009
END OF DAY REPORT
WHat's popular these days with the need for income crowd? Some corporate bonds have done nicely and a lot of money if flowing into Bond funds.
Only about $50 Billion has gone into equity mutual funds over the last 4 months and would that not make one ponder how a $10 plus TRILLION market place could achieve the returns it has to date?
ALso with 2.09% DIV yields the SPX is not a place to collect big divies in general....it's all about selling to the next guy at a higher price.
Bankruptcies leveling off? NOPE up substantially from this time last yr.
This is the highest % gain from an end of recession scenraio....but many data points just DONT add up, like the 2,5 MILLION additional jobs lost since March
Dow closed 20 pts below its previous high for move as Transports sported another new high...probably nothing.....
IMHO, and that's all it is......falling to sleep with a 100% stock portfolio may bring about SUBSTANTIAL PAIN......
D
Only about $50 Billion has gone into equity mutual funds over the last 4 months and would that not make one ponder how a $10 plus TRILLION market place could achieve the returns it has to date?
ALso with 2.09% DIV yields the SPX is not a place to collect big divies in general....it's all about selling to the next guy at a higher price.
Bankruptcies leveling off? NOPE up substantially from this time last yr.
This is the highest % gain from an end of recession scenraio....but many data points just DONT add up, like the 2,5 MILLION additional jobs lost since March
Dow closed 20 pts below its previous high for move as Transports sported another new high...probably nothing.....
IMHO, and that's all it is......falling to sleep with a 100% stock portfolio may bring about SUBSTANTIAL PAIN......
D
CONSUMER CREDIT CONTRACTS FOR UNPRECEDENTED 6th CONSECUTIVE MONTH
HAVER ANALYTICS LINK scroll to 6th story on left "economy in brief"
UNDERLYING BANK CRISIS HAS NOT GONE AWAY
Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize- winning economist, said the U.S. has
“In the U.S. and many other countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz said in an interview yesterday in Paris. “The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis.”
complete article here
Duratek......I will keep searching for the truth in a maze of misdirection, manipulation,deception and outright lies.
“In the U.S. and many other countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz said in an interview yesterday in Paris. “The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis.”
complete article here
Duratek......I will keep searching for the truth in a maze of misdirection, manipulation,deception and outright lies.
GHOST FLEET
ANyone else heard of this, my goodness....here's the LINK
"The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination..... "
also on KD's BLOG
Duratek
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