http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
These idiots with gold at $1,200 will just KEEP inflating money supply like there is still a CRISIS and tell you "recovery is taking hold"
D
Friday, December 04, 2009
Thursday, December 03, 2009
US $ DEBASEMENT
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14700644 Good article on how it also effects other countries.
I was asked how low it could go. Well we already know 70.00 is the low for the index so far. The US $ has few friends or bulls, making it a candidate for a contrarian rally, but so far this has not unfolded. A break over 76.00 IMHO may signal the $ rally has finally arrived.
AN eventual break of 70.00 will mean there is no known support level as it has never traded below there.
Timing may be difficult but we have our parameters....a brfeak below 74.00 may mean another down leg needed before rally can take hold.
SPX 1112 area on closing basis important R. RUT (small caps ) underperforming mkt.
D
I was asked how low it could go. Well we already know 70.00 is the low for the index so far. The US $ has few friends or bulls, making it a candidate for a contrarian rally, but so far this has not unfolded. A break over 76.00 IMHO may signal the $ rally has finally arrived.
AN eventual break of 70.00 will mean there is no known support level as it has never traded below there.
Timing may be difficult but we have our parameters....a brfeak below 74.00 may mean another down leg needed before rally can take hold.
SPX 1112 area on closing basis important R. RUT (small caps ) underperforming mkt.
D
ALL THAT GLITTERS
Net long open interest in gold is near record levels, buoyed by CHinese demand. US $ bulls hard to find. GOLD could correct to its 20 DMA and be bullish....some sort of correction there would seem nearby.
Lots of AM data released at 8:30, and FRI brings unemployment rate release.
We'll see if market has enough strength to breakout of sideways trend.
D
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
FED SAYS "RECOVERY GAINING MOMENTUM"
Fed Survey Finds Recovery Gaining Momentum- AP
The recovery gained traction in the late fall as shoppers spent a bit more and factories bumped up production. It marked the Federal Reserve's most upbeat assessment of the economy since it tumbled into recession two years ago.
2008 WAS A HORRIFC YEAR SO A bit more ISN'T VERY COMFORTING. iS A BIT more all we have to show for TRILLIONS of $$$'s?
D
CONSERVATIVE TALK 1060 AM
http://wbal.com/ 3-6 weekdays eastern time Ron Smith.....worth the listen, intelligent show.
LEAN NOT MEAN. PAINT IT BEIGE
Most Districts also noted that retailers were holding leaner inventories this holiday season,
Banking and FinanceBanks reported steady to softer conditions in most Districts.
Loan demand was said to have weakened in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. New York noted particular weakness in demand for home mortgage loans, whereas Richmond and St. Louis reported this to be the strongest segment of late.
For the most part, the weakness appears to have been concentrated in the commercial sector, though Boston and Chicago reported some pickup in commercial real estate lending--largely refinancing. Credit quality showed signs of deteriorating in the New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts but was described as stable or mixed in Cleveland, Chicago, and Kansas City, with Chicago reporting some improvement outside of commercial real estate. Increasingly tight credit standards were reported in the New York, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco--largely on commercial loans.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/20091202/default.htm
Banking and FinanceBanks reported steady to softer conditions in most Districts.
Loan demand was said to have weakened in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. New York noted particular weakness in demand for home mortgage loans, whereas Richmond and St. Louis reported this to be the strongest segment of late.
For the most part, the weakness appears to have been concentrated in the commercial sector, though Boston and Chicago reported some pickup in commercial real estate lending--largely refinancing. Credit quality showed signs of deteriorating in the New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts but was described as stable or mixed in Cleveland, Chicago, and Kansas City, with Chicago reporting some improvement outside of commercial real estate. Increasingly tight credit standards were reported in the New York, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco--largely on commercial loans.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/20091202/default.htm
"WORSE THAN ENRON"?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-12-01/worse-than-enron/
I have been repeating that Bank profits are mostly from trading and or fictitous in light of new accounting rules ending mark to market accounting practices, so we really don;t know what is on the banks books.....but they WIL pay out BILLIONS in bonuses.
SPX 1112-1113 area is resistance, breadth is weak, very selective rally.
D
I have been repeating that Bank profits are mostly from trading and or fictitous in light of new accounting rules ending mark to market accounting practices, so we really don;t know what is on the banks books.....but they WIL pay out BILLIONS in bonuses.
SPX 1112-1113 area is resistance, breadth is weak, very selective rally.
D
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
IT'S ALL A MIRAGE
The stock market rally is masking real underlying economic weakness and misery. It no longer has anything to do with fundamental data.
What this endless flow of fiat has done is put fuel on the commodity fire with gold closing at new high near $1,200.
It is lining Wall Streets pockets. It is masking bank weakness and a soured loan portfolio not marked to market value.
A year of ZERO rates, and TRILLIONS of liquification and we moped out a 2.8 GDP??? which was nearly ALL stimulus driven?
The debt levels were unsustainable, so we must go throgh a period of reconcilaition....and all these games are just denying that chance to happen.
SO what happened today? SURPRISE the US $ went down the market went up.
Where's YOUR breaking point? LINK HERE
D
What this endless flow of fiat has done is put fuel on the commodity fire with gold closing at new high near $1,200.
It is lining Wall Streets pockets. It is masking bank weakness and a soured loan portfolio not marked to market value.
A year of ZERO rates, and TRILLIONS of liquification and we moped out a 2.8 GDP??? which was nearly ALL stimulus driven?
The debt levels were unsustainable, so we must go throgh a period of reconcilaition....and all these games are just denying that chance to happen.
SO what happened today? SURPRISE the US $ went down the market went up.
Where's YOUR breaking point? LINK HERE
D
Monday, November 30, 2009
ANOTHER DOWNER
Friday's shortened session had strong 97% down volume, but today's response to that and Black Friday and CYber Monday is.....weak rally 57% up volume.
If it ain't a DEAL shoppers not interested, and nobody is comparing the sales figures to 2008 and reminding you how pathetic they were.
No proof of a v shaped recovery except in the stock mkt....somebody is wrong.
D
If it ain't a DEAL shoppers not interested, and nobody is comparing the sales figures to 2008 and reminding you how pathetic they were.
No proof of a v shaped recovery except in the stock mkt....somebody is wrong.
D
BLACK EYE FRIDAY
“Shoppers were up at 195 million versus 172 million in 2008. But average spending dipped from $372.57 to $343.31. Department stores saw the most customer traffic.”
That stat is key IMHO, 23 MILLION MORE but spent on avg less and 2008 was a bad retail year, so comparisons were easy.
And I am worried that these 23 million more are the ones who might have waited and spent in the next 3 weeks leading up to xmas. If MORE were shopping and spent less per person…doesn’t bode well. Bargain low margin door busters drove more people out and the rest of the way wont be pretty
That stat is key IMHO, 23 MILLION MORE but spent on avg less and 2008 was a bad retail year, so comparisons were easy.
And I am worried that these 23 million more are the ones who might have waited and spent in the next 3 weeks leading up to xmas. If MORE were shopping and spent less per person…doesn’t bode well. Bargain low margin door busters drove more people out and the rest of the way wont be pretty
Sunday, November 29, 2009
DEC MARKET HISTORY
only 7 in last 30 YEARS DEC was downer, Nov COULD bring an (false) employment upside surprise (holiday hiring PLUS shorter month)
The performance to date in 2009 mirrors 2003 blast off, BUT the fundamental backdrop couldn't be more different.
One important fact was the job market was expanding, not shedding 8 million jobs. Credit was set to BLAST OFF into a bubble and expanded at historical rate fueling economic tsunami and earnngs miracle. NOW we have declining credit and bank loans and companies have been lopping heads and cutting back on expansion plans and capital spending.....instead of BANKS LOOSENING standards they are TIGHTENING and CUTTING credit lines.....INSTEAD of GOV's rolling in TAX RECEIPTS they are funding starved.
STOCK performance couldn't hardly be more alike, economic and finacial back drop couldn't be more diferent.
The playbook for Institutions and financials is coming off same page that always seems to work, on a very different economic backdrop, BUT in the DEC trading days ahead, with possibly BONUSSES at stake.....will the horses bolt out of the stalls or KEEP rolling the dice?
WILL MONDAY bring the usual bullishness it does, and stories of FULL shopping malls and Consumers showing no fear or debt hangover? EVEN though 8 million have been taken out of the game since 2007?
NO, I don't have crystal ball nor do I know when the fluffing game ends, when it does I DO know damn good chance....this rally will be seen as a cyclical bull WITHIN a SECULAR BEAR and that ain't good.
IF YOU have gains and I would be on the lookout for signs the gig is up
D
The performance to date in 2009 mirrors 2003 blast off, BUT the fundamental backdrop couldn't be more different.
One important fact was the job market was expanding, not shedding 8 million jobs. Credit was set to BLAST OFF into a bubble and expanded at historical rate fueling economic tsunami and earnngs miracle. NOW we have declining credit and bank loans and companies have been lopping heads and cutting back on expansion plans and capital spending.....instead of BANKS LOOSENING standards they are TIGHTENING and CUTTING credit lines.....INSTEAD of GOV's rolling in TAX RECEIPTS they are funding starved.
STOCK performance couldn't hardly be more alike, economic and finacial back drop couldn't be more diferent.
The playbook for Institutions and financials is coming off same page that always seems to work, on a very different economic backdrop, BUT in the DEC trading days ahead, with possibly BONUSSES at stake.....will the horses bolt out of the stalls or KEEP rolling the dice?
WILL MONDAY bring the usual bullishness it does, and stories of FULL shopping malls and Consumers showing no fear or debt hangover? EVEN though 8 million have been taken out of the game since 2007?
NO, I don't have crystal ball nor do I know when the fluffing game ends, when it does I DO know damn good chance....this rally will be seen as a cyclical bull WITHIN a SECULAR BEAR and that ain't good.
IF YOU have gains and I would be on the lookout for signs the gig is up
D
Saturday, November 28, 2009
"FALL OF AMERICA
thanks to jesse cafe for heads up.
FED UP? IS THIS SOME CRAZY SHIT? OVERSTATED? TRUE? RACIST? SCAREY? ALL MAY BE TRUE
WAKE UP AMERICA OBAMMA is pandering to the SAME in crowd as BUSH, the SAME BANKS who almost destroyed the financial system are being HOISTED UP on a pedestal and being made even STRONGER.....there's your "CHANGE YOU CAN BELEIVE IN" what a HYPOCRITE
And remember these very words SPOKEN by GOV OFFICIAL...Rahlm emmanuel
"YOU NEVER WANT A SERIOUS CRISIS TO GO TO WASTE"
D
POPS OR DROPS?
Friday's shortened session brought in another 90% down volume day, but OTHER measures of selling were less impressive and IMHO we still don't have proof that A TOP is in.
How will market react next week will help determine short term, as Dubai is dealt with and we get reactions to Black FRI shopping. Initial reports seem to imply hey what was all the worry about?
But to draw in shoppers low or no profit door busters were used, how couldn't shoppers be more cautious? ANY comparisons will be to a WEAK 2008.
Is there any sign yet the liquidity flow that has moved markets since March has ended? Might hedge funds want to BOOK PROFITS?
When SERIOUS technical damage is done to markets then let's begin looking for that TOP
D
How will market react next week will help determine short term, as Dubai is dealt with and we get reactions to Black FRI shopping. Initial reports seem to imply hey what was all the worry about?
But to draw in shoppers low or no profit door busters were used, how couldn't shoppers be more cautious? ANY comparisons will be to a WEAK 2008.
Is there any sign yet the liquidity flow that has moved markets since March has ended? Might hedge funds want to BOOK PROFITS?
When SERIOUS technical damage is done to markets then let's begin looking for that TOP
D
Friday, November 27, 2009
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