Buy the IPO'S like the good old days folks, GS says thank you for not looking.
D
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
WHAT'S A PICTURE WORTH?
**update
Chances are increasing for some kind of rebound bounce, many indicators very oversold. I think any rally for now may be seen as chance to sell in to
D
(OT) NIKON 5000D
with Tamaron 18-170 lens, just picked it up yesterday. WAS a Cannon man. (ferrel cat)D
KEEP IN MIND
SPX 500 earnings are OVERSTATED by quite a bit, as financials do not carry market valuations for their book, it's all mark to fantasy.
So when you hear the hair people telling you on the boob tube how chaep the market is? remember that. Remember that they only want to tell you the HOT STOCK PICK of the day, not any warning on the stock market.
D
So when you hear the hair people telling you on the boob tube how chaep the market is? remember that. Remember that they only want to tell you the HOT STOCK PICK of the day, not any warning on the stock market.
D
ARE BONDS SIGNALLING WARNNIG AGAIN?
As discussed earlier, this is chart of 30 years treasuries suggested as warning signal (link was provided). The way the VIX has remained elevated is worrisome and more evidence trend may have changed, market MAY have topped in april.D
SPX MONTHLY
Stocks rallied since March of 2009 and price rose to the 50% FIB retrace level of near 1186. After awhile you start to believe in all in mumbo jumbo technical stuff as it seems to happen enough not to be coincidence.
$ peeped over its 8 year downtrend line, not sure if overhoot and trend hs changed from down to up.
Chinese market continues to make new lows after peaking in AUGUST of 2009. ST support is 1140 on the SPX. Tuesday down volume near 98%, 3rd 90% plus downer in ONE WEEK!
Stocks for the long term? SURE!!!! after Secular Bear market ends......
GOV (DEM'S) want to continue forcing forward demand for housing by entenxding home tax credits....sad bastards....applying bandaides to a severed artery
Reminder from July 4th- 15th I will be traveling through Europe....I should much to share when I return!
Duratek
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
TREASURIES ISSUING WARNING
One of our readers posted this link, worth a look follow link here
Last time USB prices spiked above their trading channel was late 2008 into 2009 at worst of financial crisis.
ONLY EXTREME INTERVENTION and "MARK TO MARKET" accounting suspension IMHO stalled the crisis end game and market crash.....piper not paid enough?
I've been warning since the market topped something was still very wrong, I am keeping chin up, but it is what it is.....if THEY Haven't fixed shit, the shit will hit the fan again and again...
**why has my blog gained in popularity? here is what I said in one post back in APRIL
>>>HAS SOMETHING CHANGED?
Selling intensity hasn't been this high since OCT 2008, during the previous bear market, and coming so close to the high water mark on the indexes, I am wondering if a shift is commencing.
It's too early to tell, but Alice is not in Wonderland, and the man behind the curtain is a fat pasty white man.
Volume surged on the selloff. <<<
D
Last time USB prices spiked above their trading channel was late 2008 into 2009 at worst of financial crisis.
ONLY EXTREME INTERVENTION and "MARK TO MARKET" accounting suspension IMHO stalled the crisis end game and market crash.....piper not paid enough?
I've been warning since the market topped something was still very wrong, I am keeping chin up, but it is what it is.....if THEY Haven't fixed shit, the shit will hit the fan again and again...
**why has my blog gained in popularity? here is what I said in one post back in APRIL
>>>HAS SOMETHING CHANGED?
Selling intensity hasn't been this high since OCT 2008, during the previous bear market, and coming so close to the high water mark on the indexes, I am wondering if a shift is commencing.
It's too early to tell, but Alice is not in Wonderland, and the man behind the curtain is a fat pasty white man.
Volume surged on the selloff. <<<
D
MARKET COLLAPSE TUESDAY
*click to enlarge as always.And damn I was having such a fine day til I got back to office and saw this mess. Well, there is always hope isn't there? GS comes out and warns on 1040 (bear trap? they cannot be trusted for anything!) so we swoon to 1035 but close at 1041.....
15 90% days 10 down 5 up since APRIL!!! and my guess is today was ANOTHER 90% downer......do you usually get 11 90% volume downers and only 5 uppers in a BULL MKT?(and Im not even talking ENTIRE BULL or BEAR DAMN...this is just since APRIL!!!) I don't think so, VIX staying elevated. NYA already signalled 50/200 cross.
Evidence is piling up we are in sinister times here, all is not lost, but this is NOT the back drop we wanted after all GOV and FED have done, no sir. NO SIR!
D
MARKET ACTION ALERT!
Consumer confidence SHEERED from 62.7 to 52.9 !!
Dow back under 10K, KEY level is SPX 1040, breach of that means downside followthru much more likely.
D
Dow back under 10K, KEY level is SPX 1040, breach of that means downside followthru much more likely.
D
CHINESE CANARY
I've been commenting on how weak the Shanghai Chinese stock index has been, how it last made a high in AUG of 2009. Last night it fell over 4% to its lowest level for this move, a clear bear mkt.
CHina is engine of production, where do we go without a healthy CHina?
D
CHina is engine of production, where do we go without a healthy CHina?
D
Monday, June 28, 2010
DEFICITS CHOKING THE LIFE OUT OF NATION
Geithenr quoted "US deficits are unsustainable"
>>>On the day the Obama administration took office in February 2009, the budget deficit for 2009 stood at $1.3 trillion, or 9.2 percent of GDP. Over the following ten years, projected deficits totaled $8 trillion.
But in reality, the fiscal year 2009 ended in September saw a deficit of record $1.42 trillion. President Barack Obama projected in his report to the Congress earlier this year that fiscal year 2010 will see a $1.56 trillion federal budget deficit. And it will not fall significantly in the coming years.
"Without changes in policy, deficits would total 10.6 trillion dollars over the next ten years," Geithner said. <<<
I can remember when the DEM'S were screaming about Bush and his $400B deficit, well Obama has seen him and raised him twice!
We are headed for near $2T deficits, the world as per G20 comments are headed towards austerity, does the US go it alone in spending?
Japan has spent itself into a stupor and is one of the most indebted nations, mostly from 20 years of stimulus and gov spending battling deflation.
Real world data is more and more pointing to WAVE 2 of the Great Recession is hear or looming within months. Companies have NO pricing power to speak of, deflation is gaining a foothold.
The internet makes it easy to shop around, most companies working on scant margins. MORE competition for less business breeds cost cutting, no loyalty...sinking profits.
ECRI world index is leading indicator and is pointing to trouble. BDI has been crashing.
SHOULD THE GOV continue to stimulate with money they don't have? If no one else spends would that be worse?
Home sales had worst month in history in May, am I a pessimist or clue me in on what I am missing....
Bond Bubble? Does it make sense, that with RECORD debt issuance and deficits, interest paid continues to fall near decades lows? Japanese 10 year notes yield about 1%.
D
>>>On the day the Obama administration took office in February 2009, the budget deficit for 2009 stood at $1.3 trillion, or 9.2 percent of GDP. Over the following ten years, projected deficits totaled $8 trillion.
But in reality, the fiscal year 2009 ended in September saw a deficit of record $1.42 trillion. President Barack Obama projected in his report to the Congress earlier this year that fiscal year 2010 will see a $1.56 trillion federal budget deficit. And it will not fall significantly in the coming years.
"Without changes in policy, deficits would total 10.6 trillion dollars over the next ten years," Geithner said. <<<
I can remember when the DEM'S were screaming about Bush and his $400B deficit, well Obama has seen him and raised him twice!
We are headed for near $2T deficits, the world as per G20 comments are headed towards austerity, does the US go it alone in spending?
Japan has spent itself into a stupor and is one of the most indebted nations, mostly from 20 years of stimulus and gov spending battling deflation.
Real world data is more and more pointing to WAVE 2 of the Great Recession is hear or looming within months. Companies have NO pricing power to speak of, deflation is gaining a foothold.
The internet makes it easy to shop around, most companies working on scant margins. MORE competition for less business breeds cost cutting, no loyalty...sinking profits.
ECRI world index is leading indicator and is pointing to trouble. BDI has been crashing.
SHOULD THE GOV continue to stimulate with money they don't have? If no one else spends would that be worse?
Home sales had worst month in history in May, am I a pessimist or clue me in on what I am missing....
Bond Bubble? Does it make sense, that with RECORD debt issuance and deficits, interest paid continues to fall near decades lows? Japanese 10 year notes yield about 1%.
D
THE COMING STORM
The always affable succint Alan Abelson from Baron's
A DO nothing Monday, until SPX 1040 falls door is open for anything. (I will be GONE from July 4th-July 15th)
D
A DO nothing Monday, until SPX 1040 falls door is open for anything. (I will be GONE from July 4th-July 15th)
D
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Saturday, June 26, 2010
VALUE?
DECISION POINT SHOWS CURRENT PE OF SPX at 21 with DIV yield 2% !
LAST GREAT bear bottom in 1980 was amazing time to be bullish, the yield was close to 6% ! now 2% is a bottom for stocks???
from capt cap "
"1. What if all the increase in stock prices for the past 30 years was due to cash flowing into the stock market from retirement plans, not necessarily because those stocks were good investments making them fundamentally overvalued".
Interesting thought, since 401k's etc, this FED GS and friends, FED the stock market.....a GUARANTEED source of buyers.....every month. Has that changed?
Drawing money from homes, has that changed? Bank lending down, good for economy?
GOLD is most bullish chart I can find, many think correction is coming....hasnt come yet.
D
SCOTT REDLER'S "GREAT SPECULATIONS"
So far since APRIL we have had 15 (YES) 90% volume days. 10 DOWNERS 5 RALLIES, I am not sure there is precedence for this in any prior BULL MKT.
"Is the market forming a head and shoulders formation?" link here
DO WE RISK FOR YIELD?
T could be forming a huge head and shoulders, it has not regained much from the top in 2007/2008, but the stock now yields near 6.7%, so we could argue there IS compensation for risk. When the SPX 500 yields 6-7% and not 3% or less we could argue for agressive buying as price will have collapsed to near bear mkt lows.
Just a thought. Recent bear took T down to $20 area, a new round of selling could do same. Dividend should be sound unlike BP's.
D
BABY WITH BATH WATER?
Bear markets are supposed to unvail stocks at great prices, is the BP Bear going to unmask bargains in the sector? XOM now yields 2.9% I am monitoring the situation, have the other related stocks been unfairly beaten down?
D
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