Tuesday, October 12, 2010
BACK ASSWARDS THINKING
"Fed Minutes: Easing May Be Needed "Before Long"- Reuters
Federal Reserve officials believed in September that further help for the struggling recovery might be needed soon and discussed how best that might be done, the central bank said on Tuesday "
Now if this is the reasoning the bull junkies will be rejoicing (really we know its mostly black boxes and the FED) ......someone has lost their mind
D
Federal Reserve officials believed in September that further help for the struggling recovery might be needed soon and discussed how best that might be done, the central bank said on Tuesday "
Now if this is the reasoning the bull junkies will be rejoicing (really we know its mostly black boxes and the FED) ......someone has lost their mind
D
RISK REWARD
JPM reports WED AM, earnings season is here again. Large Banks are shifted to LOAN to the GOV, not private sector, the risk / reward ratio is so titled in that way, loaning to gov by buying treasuries (using excess Fed Reserves = free) is too easy a proposition.
Bank earnings are still not reflective of current market conditions and they are not made to show losses of devalued mortgage loans. banks make up a large part of S&P 500 earnings. If earnings are not FACTUALLY REFLECTIVE of what is, instead of make believe GOV sanctioned fuzzy math.....add into HFT volume where stocks change hands for no fundamental reason, you have a stock market levitating on THIN AIR, IMHO. THEY have changed the game, using tools never used before, playing field so slanted......evidence 27 or so 90% volume days up or down volume since last April....this is insanity.
VIX dropped below 20....falling VIX is NOT Bearish as many think, a rising VIX IS......when the VIX falls TOO LOW.....it does show complacency, setting up the reversal....but not until the trend reverses to up
D
Bank earnings are still not reflective of current market conditions and they are not made to show losses of devalued mortgage loans. banks make up a large part of S&P 500 earnings. If earnings are not FACTUALLY REFLECTIVE of what is, instead of make believe GOV sanctioned fuzzy math.....add into HFT volume where stocks change hands for no fundamental reason, you have a stock market levitating on THIN AIR, IMHO. THEY have changed the game, using tools never used before, playing field so slanted......evidence 27 or so 90% volume days up or down volume since last April....this is insanity.
VIX dropped below 20....falling VIX is NOT Bearish as many think, a rising VIX IS......when the VIX falls TOO LOW.....it does show complacency, setting up the reversal....but not until the trend reverses to up
D
ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY
RR says " 3rd stage of gold bull when the avg Joe starts buying" I'm going to throw out there the avg dude may NEVER Buy GOLD....and that 3rd phase if it comes isnt spurred by them.
In late 70's last gold bull.....baby boomers were old enough to remember, had parents who bought gold then saw it go to dust...Philapene gold mine investments or Bre-X scams .......then saw gold sit for 20 years....the process to buy it, gold coins etc not clear nor easy......maybe a LOST generation of gold demand.....as we now witness a lost generation for stocks......those who think these the unbuying.....burnt too many times untrusting.....will come in to push this heap of shit(stocks) higher wont ever come......
Coming into Pres election cycle...years 3-4 usually good ones for stocks....for economy? stronger economy = real inflation= higher gold? Gold ATM machines not signalling any warning? maybe when they are at your local food store like red box?
"Cost-of-living adjustments are automatically set by a measure adopted by Congress in the 1970s that orders raises based on the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation. If inflation is negative, as in 2009 and 2010, payments remain unchanged. " deflation?
Some economic data does show improvement, but if 70,000 jobs created (last report) we need at least 125,000 just to keep even with new job seekers. AVG last 8 recoveries (2003 was prior weakest) shows like nothing in common with current so-called recovery....as at LEAST 8 MILLION AMERICANS gathering MOSS.....43 MILLION gathering food stamps and other Gov assistance, more than ANY TIME in HISTORY....this is our NEW BULL MKT? As also seen, the gov UNDER-REPORTS job losses during the year, adding mythical workers in the "birth-death" game and then waits until FEB of following year to adjust......how convienent!
In a gross turn of fate, QE II and POMO actions along with the competing currency devaluer's trying to increase exports incl CHina, UK and Japan.....will seem to benefit mostly paper assets....and of course THE GLITTERING METAL.
I could argue that things are better, less bad.....but until bank credit/loans begin expanding again.....consumer consume more, save less, housing inventory of unsold homes along with foreclosed and SHADOW INVENTORY gets worked off....and people get back to work.....what you see is what you get.
FED actions are trying to GUARANTEE LOW INTEREST RATES......but with so much to be financed......with GOLD already SCREAMING MADNESS.....how much more printing can be done to give the ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY?
D
In late 70's last gold bull.....baby boomers were old enough to remember, had parents who bought gold then saw it go to dust...Philapene gold mine investments or Bre-X scams .......then saw gold sit for 20 years....the process to buy it, gold coins etc not clear nor easy......maybe a LOST generation of gold demand.....as we now witness a lost generation for stocks......those who think these the unbuying.....burnt too many times untrusting.....will come in to push this heap of shit(stocks) higher wont ever come......
Coming into Pres election cycle...years 3-4 usually good ones for stocks....for economy? stronger economy = real inflation= higher gold? Gold ATM machines not signalling any warning? maybe when they are at your local food store like red box?
"Cost-of-living adjustments are automatically set by a measure adopted by Congress in the 1970s that orders raises based on the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation. If inflation is negative, as in 2009 and 2010, payments remain unchanged. " deflation?
Some economic data does show improvement, but if 70,000 jobs created (last report) we need at least 125,000 just to keep even with new job seekers. AVG last 8 recoveries (2003 was prior weakest) shows like nothing in common with current so-called recovery....as at LEAST 8 MILLION AMERICANS gathering MOSS.....43 MILLION gathering food stamps and other Gov assistance, more than ANY TIME in HISTORY....this is our NEW BULL MKT? As also seen, the gov UNDER-REPORTS job losses during the year, adding mythical workers in the "birth-death" game and then waits until FEB of following year to adjust......how convienent!
In a gross turn of fate, QE II and POMO actions along with the competing currency devaluer's trying to increase exports incl CHina, UK and Japan.....will seem to benefit mostly paper assets....and of course THE GLITTERING METAL.
I could argue that things are better, less bad.....but until bank credit/loans begin expanding again.....consumer consume more, save less, housing inventory of unsold homes along with foreclosed and SHADOW INVENTORY gets worked off....and people get back to work.....what you see is what you get.
FED actions are trying to GUARANTEE LOW INTEREST RATES......but with so much to be financed......with GOLD already SCREAMING MADNESS.....how much more printing can be done to give the ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY?
D
GET YOUR FREEZE ON SS BENEFITS
"The government is expected to announce this week that more than 58 million Social Security recipients will go through a second straight year without an increase in monthly benefits. This year was the first without an increase since automatic adjustments for inflation started in 1975.
"I think it's disgusting," said Paul McNeil, 69, a retired state worker from Warwick, R.I., who said his food and utility costs have gone up, but his income has not. He lamented decisions by lawmakers that he said do not favor seniors.
"They've got this idea that they've got to save money and basically they want to take it out of the people that will give them the least resistance," he said.
Cost-of-living adjustments are automatically set by a measure adopted by Congress in the 1970s that orders raises based on the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation. If inflation is negative, as in 2009 and 2010, payments remain unchanged. "
Inflation negative for 2 years? when did that happen last? GOLD SOARING to never before seen heights....NOT because of current inflation......
D
"I think it's disgusting," said Paul McNeil, 69, a retired state worker from Warwick, R.I., who said his food and utility costs have gone up, but his income has not. He lamented decisions by lawmakers that he said do not favor seniors.
"They've got this idea that they've got to save money and basically they want to take it out of the people that will give them the least resistance," he said.
Cost-of-living adjustments are automatically set by a measure adopted by Congress in the 1970s that orders raises based on the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation. If inflation is negative, as in 2009 and 2010, payments remain unchanged. "
Inflation negative for 2 years? when did that happen last? GOLD SOARING to never before seen heights....NOT because of current inflation......
D
JOB LOSSES WORSE THAN REPORTED
.." in a little-noticed note at the bottom of September's jobs report, the Labor Department said it now appears there were 366,000 additional jobs lost during the 12 months that ended in March, a revision that is not yet included in the official numbers.
That revision isn't as bad as last year's -- when the Labor Department said that an additional 902,000 jobs were lost. But it is still the second largest downward"
Cant trust the data....
D
That revision isn't as bad as last year's -- when the Labor Department said that an additional 902,000 jobs were lost. But it is still the second largest downward"
Cant trust the data....
D
Monday, October 11, 2010
EVERYTHING IS BROKEN
Market used to be for 100 years good voting machine….now 70% volume program traders many of which use HFT, now majority are NOT voters…most volume does not even know what it is buying, or anything about the co, except it falls into the realm of its algorithm.
Which IMHO….between false demand from computers…..FED prop job thru QE’s and POMO’s…..majority of economic gains from stimulus…..that leaves the US ripe for a calamity and it will come out of the night….and the voting machine, now rigged with hanging chads everywhere…..will be very quiet.
Duratek
Which IMHO….between false demand from computers…..FED prop job thru QE’s and POMO’s…..majority of economic gains from stimulus…..that leaves the US ripe for a calamity and it will come out of the night….and the voting machine, now rigged with hanging chads everywhere…..will be very quiet.
Duratek
HIGH OIL, LOW BDI
AS markets roar on, BDI stuck in sideways pattern, but just recently making a lower low and lower high. With OIL above $80 a BDI that does not show vibrant economies is puzzling
Sunday, October 10, 2010
BOUGHT AND BORROWED and LUDICROUS
IN MArch of 2009 the FED began quantitative easing, that ignited the bull market. In August of this year stocks began to fade, so then the FED began another program called POMO, and this gave us the best Sept in 70 years.
Now there is talk of QE II, and the market stalked even higher....so should you "fight the FED?"
Many will argue that inflating asset prices if it helps spur consumer spending is worth it.
It's legal to program super fast computers to trade millions of times per day with no human attendant and this provides nearly 70% of NYSE volume? provides liquidity? or turned stock market into a rigged freak show?
SO I ask this question......what is the stock market and how can it any longer represent the real economy when majority of trades are based on an algorythm and has nothing to do with what the company does, earnings, management or anything at all?
D
Now there is talk of QE II, and the market stalked even higher....so should you "fight the FED?"
Many will argue that inflating asset prices if it helps spur consumer spending is worth it.
It's legal to program super fast computers to trade millions of times per day with no human attendant and this provides nearly 70% of NYSE volume? provides liquidity? or turned stock market into a rigged freak show?
SO I ask this question......what is the stock market and how can it any longer represent the real economy when majority of trades are based on an algorythm and has nothing to do with what the company does, earnings, management or anything at all?
D
DEVIOUS THOUGHT
Best Sept in 70 years. VIX sliding to near 20, fear subsiding. FEW calls for caution as we move through OCTOBER, historically worst month of year and when ACCIDENTS HAPPEN.
It would seem appropriate, that a surprise SPAT of selling show up out of seemingly nowhere.
COngrats to Rays fans for come back win, got life. Yeah Yeah Yankees .....Ravens against Denver today, taking my 15 yr old son BOOO YAAAA. G-d bless all our fighting troops,be safe. May the rally portend better days for those who need it, not some sick manipulated smoke screen or ZIMBABWE ploy
AMERICA IS THIS THE PATH WE SHOULD LET THE FED TAKE US?
"August 19, 2008 --
Zimbabwe inflation hits 11,200,000 percent
In February, the price of a loaf of bread in the country was less than 200,000 Zimbabwe dollars. On Monday, that same loaf of bread cost 1.6 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.
Analysts have said the Zimbabwean government's official inflation rate figures are conservative. Last week, one of Zimbabwe's leading banks, Kingdom Bank, said the country's inflation rate was now more than 20 million percent.
The locally-owned bank predicted tougher times ahead for Zimbabwe in the absence of donor support and foreign investment in an economy that has been in freefall for almost a decade. "
D
It would seem appropriate, that a surprise SPAT of selling show up out of seemingly nowhere.
COngrats to Rays fans for come back win, got life. Yeah Yeah Yankees .....Ravens against Denver today, taking my 15 yr old son BOOO YAAAA. G-d bless all our fighting troops,be safe. May the rally portend better days for those who need it, not some sick manipulated smoke screen or ZIMBABWE ploy
AMERICA IS THIS THE PATH WE SHOULD LET THE FED TAKE US?
"August 19, 2008 --
Zimbabwe inflation hits 11,200,000 percent
In February, the price of a loaf of bread in the country was less than 200,000 Zimbabwe dollars. On Monday, that same loaf of bread cost 1.6 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.
Analysts have said the Zimbabwean government's official inflation rate figures are conservative. Last week, one of Zimbabwe's leading banks, Kingdom Bank, said the country's inflation rate was now more than 20 million percent.
The locally-owned bank predicted tougher times ahead for Zimbabwe in the absence of donor support and foreign investment in an economy that has been in freefall for almost a decade. "
D
Saturday, October 09, 2010
FORECLOSURES HALTED, WHAT IT MIGHT MEAN
largest bank halts foreclosures in all states
Anyone that knows me……I’m bearish fundamentally, have been for awhile, also know I haven’t shorted the market along the way here, I’m jaded by own biz experience during this time, hasn’t been a good one. I just put a post on my blog all the reasons to stick your head in the sand.
BUT
You keep gobs of people in their homes, don’t foreclose…..they will continue to spend that mortgage money on consumables…..and this strategic defaulting now reinforced by decree and bank haltings…..will ensure that continues.
All this month before Nov election. FED gestures about QE2…..I don’t see ST scenario for the JAW DROPPER crowd…..a meltup above previous 1219 ish close is very likely.
That said, when the fun is over…..the breast fed economy will lose grips with the teet…..and what the BOND market IMHO has been screaming, what gold might be warning (not as currency but as safe crisis haven) we will come face to face with that boogeyman….
Has there ever been a documented case of long term sustainability with such humongous debt, and little done to clean the place up, with fundies upside down compared to prior 8 recessions on avg…….and from printing currency as the plan?
D
Anyone that knows me……I’m bearish fundamentally, have been for awhile, also know I haven’t shorted the market along the way here, I’m jaded by own biz experience during this time, hasn’t been a good one. I just put a post on my blog all the reasons to stick your head in the sand.
BUT
You keep gobs of people in their homes, don’t foreclose…..they will continue to spend that mortgage money on consumables…..and this strategic defaulting now reinforced by decree and bank haltings…..will ensure that continues.
All this month before Nov election. FED gestures about QE2…..I don’t see ST scenario for the JAW DROPPER crowd…..a meltup above previous 1219 ish close is very likely.
That said, when the fun is over…..the breast fed economy will lose grips with the teet…..and what the BOND market IMHO has been screaming, what gold might be warning (not as currency but as safe crisis haven) we will come face to face with that boogeyman….
Has there ever been a documented case of long term sustainability with such humongous debt, and little done to clean the place up, with fundies upside down compared to prior 8 recessions on avg…….and from printing currency as the plan?
D
SECULAR DECLINE
"Finally, whatever actions the Fed takes in the name of further stimulus will have the same unintended consequences as all previous stimulus efforts: Long-term sustainability will be sacrificed in favor of a short-term boom. Since World War II, the underlying strength of the U.S. economy has allowed the central bank to get away with this strategy, as the economy simply outgrew the inefficiencies caused by monetary manipulation. But what happens when we are in a period of secular decline?"
In last 10 years we have suffered thru 2 brutal bear markets, leaving us with investments in general BELOW what they were 10 years ago. BOTH times the FED fought these "slowdowns" with near 0 interest rates, first to 1% they created, propagated and stimulated the housing bubble which bevame the FINANCIAL CRISIS.
Currently they did even more, wehave 0% rates, 4% 30 year mortgages, $2 TRILLION FED balance sheets (most crap), FED deficits soaring above $1 TRILLION per year, cash for clunkers, first time home buyer credits then extended to everyone, GSE's are 90% of all mortgages which the public guarantees, 2 years of gov assitance for out of workers,
$800 Billion of direct GOV stimulus, POMO actions by FED directed at the stock market, and so on......we can directly LINK all of these to the increased SPX profits, which have eased recently.
BUT, unemployment "OFFICIALLY" sits at a liars stagnant 9.6%, Gallup poll said it is cuurently above 10%, U6 says closer to 20% ! IS IT GOV PAYMENTS that PROP UP CONSUMER SPENDING?
INCOMES are stagnant, work week not growing, housing does not support HELOC'S which drove consumer spending during the boom, many are taking OUT retirement funds and not putting in plus all those lost jobbers are not saving? playing the markets?
Gold has soared to new highs, bonds near PANIC lows for 10 year, ALL TIME HISTORIC LOWS for the 2 yr .36% !!!!!!!!! I have showed the link between yield and stocks for last 10 years, that has been broken for more than 6 months.
Suffering continues for many, but not for those connected to thenow MUCH too much bigger to fail banks
D
Friday, October 08, 2010
RUBBER CHICKEN MEETING ROAD
Policies are manipulating stocks market higher on thin premises. In front of Nov elections those in power will do anything to keep status quo. Gold soars to new highs as what's in your pocket WEEPS...avergae US citizen hasn't even held a gold coin in their hands in a lifetime....when public buys in the gold bull will bubble to unheard of heights.....THEN BURST.
GLARING, I will repeat, GOLD and BONDS are pointing to an ugly backdrop, one maybe those in the know want to cloak as long as they can....and at ANY cost.
If QE1 worked and healthy economy, would be no talk of QE2 or new highs in gold nor new LOWS for bond yields....these 2 act like EBOLI breakout is just around corner.
D
WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
Lower yields then at any time in history! Expect yields like this in deflation, or worse.....what kinda BOOGEYMAN is lurking?
PUT on mkt because FED will unleash QE2??? and QE1 worked so well? what is ALREADY PRICED IN?
D
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
