Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
BEAR MKT BOUNCE APPEARS
My trusty tick chart did spot the divergence and oversold bounce forming, and it turned out to be formidable. Here's the rally, all coming after 3pm!
Stocks Stage Late Rally, Erasing Early Losses, Amid EU Bank Aid Plan Report- AP
And it came in the last hour of trading!? AS the EURO rose on speculation of addt'l banking measures, blah blah, US $ weakened all coordinated so to speak.
DO you think also after 3 of last 4 trading days contained over 90% down volume, a bounce was near? of course, that's how it works, and shorts covering at close caused even further stampede.
The market is SO volatile, this is not the playground for the avg Joe, or for most. LOW LOW LOW interest rates are sparking a surge of refinancing, could inject some consumer spending, is making some well positioned Mortgage companies and brokers some nice dough, but JOBS JOBS JOBS are what is needed to sustain any kind of recovery.
FED BIG BAD BEN said "the slowdown was worse than we thought, the recovery weaker than we had hoped...." SO we will keep right on doing what we've been doing that isn't working....because of course it could be worse.
THE WORLD is unwinding from years of abusive central bank behaviour and living beyond means...Even now, in the darkest hour, when all the tricks and gimmicks haven't worked, they are doing even more! Selling short term notes for longer dated ones.
Just when the US lost its AAA rating, treasuries have had one its greatest quarters. What will come next? How far can the rally go? Did an important bottom form today?
Now more than ever, technical analysis will play an important role, as the market heaves and ho's on every news report and Eurpoean save effort. Meanwhile.....be careful out there.
D
And it came in the last hour of trading!? AS the EURO rose on speculation of addt'l banking measures, blah blah, US $ weakened all coordinated so to speak.
DO you think also after 3 of last 4 trading days contained over 90% down volume, a bounce was near? of course, that's how it works, and shorts covering at close caused even further stampede.
The market is SO volatile, this is not the playground for the avg Joe, or for most. LOW LOW LOW interest rates are sparking a surge of refinancing, could inject some consumer spending, is making some well positioned Mortgage companies and brokers some nice dough, but JOBS JOBS JOBS are what is needed to sustain any kind of recovery.
FED BIG BAD BEN said "the slowdown was worse than we thought, the recovery weaker than we had hoped...." SO we will keep right on doing what we've been doing that isn't working....because of course it could be worse.
THE WORLD is unwinding from years of abusive central bank behaviour and living beyond means...Even now, in the darkest hour, when all the tricks and gimmicks haven't worked, they are doing even more! Selling short term notes for longer dated ones.
Just when the US lost its AAA rating, treasuries have had one its greatest quarters. What will come next? How far can the rally go? Did an important bottom form today?
Now more than ever, technical analysis will play an important role, as the market heaves and ho's on every news report and Eurpoean save effort. Meanwhile.....be careful out there.
D
THAR SHE BLOWS, SUPPORT BROKEN
**click to enlargeI'm just not sure at this point. My feeling was when that SPX 1100 area broke down, prices would fall deep enough to allow a retest of that break in trading range. But as we feel pretty confident a NEW BEAR MKT is underway, the primary trend is DOWN, and rallies used for selling.
I did my best to pre pare and warn my readers as to the potential dangers lurking. Even with this going on, I've tried to grow my other business, so I can't throw in long posts every day as before.....if you need to make living and survive, just keep plugging away giving it your best efforts.....the market action may be out of your hands, your life isn't.
D
Sunday, October 02, 2011
KNOW YOUR FACTS
"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?" - Keynes
Arnold Kling and Megan McArdle have pulled a funny and embarrassing quote from Paul Krugman, published in a 2002 NYT column:
Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2009-06-17/wall_street/30100530_1_housing-bubble-slump-fed#ixzz1ZeqBC600
Arnold Kling and Megan McArdle have pulled a funny and embarrassing quote from Paul Krugman, published in a 2002 NYT column:
The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance.To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.
Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2009-06-17/wall_street/30100530_1_housing-bubble-slump-fed#ixzz1ZeqBC600
"TESTING A THESIS" Doug Noland
September 29 – Bloomberg (Joshua Zumbrun): “Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the central bank may be undermining its own credibility by pushing forward with monetary easing that will do little to boost growth. ‘The actions taken in August and September tend to undermine the Fed’s credibility by giving the impression that we think such policies can have a major impact on the speed of the recovery,’ Plosser said… ‘It is my assessment that they will not.’
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10578
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10578
Saturday, October 01, 2011
BEAR MARKET TAKES HOLD
The sideways price movement is going to break, and I think it will be to the downside, when that happens, selling may intensify and really rock investors just sitting and watching. For months I have suggested taking some off the table and for me that's 100% out of the market. I was also one of the first to suggest the bear market has returned.
Life goes on, and you try to make the best of it, say positive on LIFE by all means, just don't be a patsy for those who play you for a lemming, or the last handoff in a Ponzi scheme and pyramid scheme...the game of musical chairs known as the stock market.
Like any gaming scheme, the insiders (house) almost always wins.....you are told everybody wins if they just STAY IN. When is the last time a Financial Advisor told you to sell?
D
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
REALITY BITES THE SLOPE OF HOPE
By Dhanya Skariachan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Best Buy Co, the world's largest consumer electronics chain, will cut its hiring of temporary workers in the United States this holiday season by almost half compared with 2010.
The decision is further bad news for the U.S. economy and for the unemployed in particular. A quarter of the retailers surveyed by the Hay Group said they were hiring fewer seasonal workers this year and only 10 percent plan to hire more.
Best Buy is hiring only 15,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 29,000 last year, and is counting on permanent employees to work overtime to close the gap in terms of hours worked, Chief Executive Brian Dunn told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.
He said the retailer is not counting on any help from the economy this Christmas as it sees consumers staying cautious about spending on nonessential items.<<
In my own life and business, I go about my daily chores looking for new clients, taking care of existing ones, without a THOUGHT to the economy. But when it comes time for portfolio positioning, IMHO, MR CONSERVATIVE is sitting this period OUT.
D
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Best Buy Co, the world's largest consumer electronics chain, will cut its hiring of temporary workers in the United States this holiday season by almost half compared with 2010.
The decision is further bad news for the U.S. economy and for the unemployed in particular. A quarter of the retailers surveyed by the Hay Group said they were hiring fewer seasonal workers this year and only 10 percent plan to hire more.
Best Buy is hiring only 15,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 29,000 last year, and is counting on permanent employees to work overtime to close the gap in terms of hours worked, Chief Executive Brian Dunn told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.
He said the retailer is not counting on any help from the economy this Christmas as it sees consumers staying cautious about spending on nonessential items.<<
In my own life and business, I go about my daily chores looking for new clients, taking care of existing ones, without a THOUGHT to the economy. But when it comes time for portfolio positioning, IMHO, MR CONSERVATIVE is sitting this period OUT.
D
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
"HOPE" RALLY CONTINUES
Here is from a FED dissenter
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said he opposed the Fed's latest attempt to boost economic growth because he fears it won't work -- and it could scare consumers and squeeze bank earnings."
Volume SWELLS on the declines, diminishes on the "rallies". Still in a range of price, but again real signs of stock ACCUMULATION are not present, expanding volume NOT present.
The FED is AGAIN targeting asset prices or why would these insane men playing with fire trying to lower already insanely LOW long term interest rates.
What segment of economy needs lower than historic LOWS in interest rates? Retired folk? Savers? UHM....try to force people back into stocks? Wall Street.....aren't we tired of these games? ineffective policy?
The Federal Reserve acts independently of our government, but isn't it time for someone to speak OUT against these harmful policies? We can follow back all our recent bubbles and economic woes IMHO to interestrate policy, ALL controlled by the Federal Reserve.
I don't think the market is done to the downside. HERE is my thinking, after reviewing several EWT charters, I like Daneric's thinking. I can sum by saying I think we break down 1100 on the SPX and that is going to bring out of hibernation a lot of Johnny bear latelies. SOMEWHERE Under that level might be interesting place to buy, and position for Winter promised rally.
To see stocks run as headlines say from hope and fear of European debt defaaults or some supposed fix is amusing. The PLAYERS who have enough money, fire power are just buying 1100 and selling 1200 area...sooner or later one will break.
Go Rays
D
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said he opposed the Fed's latest attempt to boost economic growth because he fears it won't work -- and it could scare consumers and squeeze bank earnings."
Volume SWELLS on the declines, diminishes on the "rallies". Still in a range of price, but again real signs of stock ACCUMULATION are not present, expanding volume NOT present.
The FED is AGAIN targeting asset prices or why would these insane men playing with fire trying to lower already insanely LOW long term interest rates.
What segment of economy needs lower than historic LOWS in interest rates? Retired folk? Savers? UHM....try to force people back into stocks? Wall Street.....aren't we tired of these games? ineffective policy?
The Federal Reserve acts independently of our government, but isn't it time for someone to speak OUT against these harmful policies? We can follow back all our recent bubbles and economic woes IMHO to interestrate policy, ALL controlled by the Federal Reserve.
I don't think the market is done to the downside. HERE is my thinking, after reviewing several EWT charters, I like Daneric's thinking. I can sum by saying I think we break down 1100 on the SPX and that is going to bring out of hibernation a lot of Johnny bear latelies. SOMEWHERE Under that level might be interesting place to buy, and position for Winter promised rally.
To see stocks run as headlines say from hope and fear of European debt defaaults or some supposed fix is amusing. The PLAYERS who have enough money, fire power are just buying 1100 and selling 1200 area...sooner or later one will break.
Go Rays
D
FED ACTION TRYING RE RE RE INFLATE STOCK BUBBLE
"The "Risk On" trade is back today sending stocks and commodities sharply higher, and the US 10-year Treasury yield back up towards 2%. Meanwhile, as of Monday's close the S&P 500 dividend yield remained higher than the 10-year T-note, a move seen only 20 times in the past 58 years on a quarterly basis according to S&P research. The phenomenon rewrites the rulebook for yield-seeking investors, as the broader stock market offers more than a traditional bond investment."
Duratek
Duratek
Saturday, September 24, 2011
WEEKEND POST "THE MORE THINGS CHANGE"
....the more they remain the same. The FED announced Tuesday they had a NEW "TWIST" to energize the economy....you sitting down? SELL short dated treasuries, BUY long dated ones!! YEAH! that's it's it. Lower long term rates from next to nothing to nothing. 10 year yields are already below 1.9% !!!
Record low mortgage rates haven't hurt the housing market, but how much more could already historic low rates improve the situation? I think you got your answer from the last few days market reaction. The Fed meeting and announcement preceded back to back 90% down volume days, the 2nd one increasing volume from heavy to blowout rising by some 44%....a strong opinion was registered by Mr Market.
Friday appeared to be a "turnaround" day with prices falling early, and we keep hearing about these smart guys running in to BUY THE BARGAINS....NO....the market short term oversold will get a pathetic bounce of pity before it heads lower once again.
One of the main differences is that we are seeing tell tale signs of DISTRIBUTION this time around, not signs of ACCUMULATION. SO I can safely say, there is pretty good chance the Aug lows break down, maybe next week. It's going to get even uglier in a hurry, IMHO.
HIGH unemployment (record actually for a supposed recovery) and business taxation uncertainty, does set stage for a sustainable recovery. What you get is lame congress, lame President and more of the same from those idiots and the FED, a real cast of ignorant characters that JUST DON'T GET IT!
If businesses see a climate of LOWER TAXATION, LOWER COST OF EMPLOYMENT and HEALTH CARE too.....they will act accordingly and expand...look ahead. Right now, what they see is chance of higher taxes and a government that keeps growing and running huge deficits with no real plan to change.
2 years of unemployment benefits have not been enough for a large group of unemployed, weeks to find a job is at an all time high....over 2 years into recovery...for many it has not felt like recovery.
Consumer Sentiment polls near the lows of crisis, never rose to even the worst it was after 911 !! very telling.
Gold and silver, oil all seemed to have popped, even if temporarily. The US $ has popped, but popped higher...we look that much better than Europe?
DO you ever wonder why Oil at near $140 got us $4 gas......and $80 OIL gets us near $4 gas?
What has helped me slightly, is that I am SO engrossed in running and growing my new business that I started, after 30 years involved in family business, that I don't have time to worry about economy and I am smart enough to NOT be exposed to stocks at this time. YES I AM 100% cash whoopie.
There ARE times not to sit around and take a 40% draw down lump!!! IF you can see it coming, IF you don't think the sky is falling and DO come back and buy low. you can't buy LOW if you sit like a squirrel with a nut and don't react....most will not.
It's taken me 20 years of study and PROOF to myself in how I avoided the bear markets that began in 2000....to understand its time in the market that counts...EXCEPT when you should be out or super defensive...like now IMHO
Hey, it's not for everyone, maybe sitting around for the 50% haircut is worth it for those who don't want to miss the rise. BUT, since 2000 LTBH strategy has returned 0%, losses even. You must be fluid, move to the hot sectors, like gold and commodities last 10 years. I don't know if thatrun is OVER, not with the growing new world populations CHina and India, BUT it appears to be taking a big pause and nasty correction has begun. I honestly don't know if this is the pause that refreshes between 2nd and final BLOWOFF stage for that sector.
The law of SUPPLY and DEMAND don't seem to favor sticking in toes just yet....if we watch closely, we won't have to guess when to hard.
Duratek
Record low mortgage rates haven't hurt the housing market, but how much more could already historic low rates improve the situation? I think you got your answer from the last few days market reaction. The Fed meeting and announcement preceded back to back 90% down volume days, the 2nd one increasing volume from heavy to blowout rising by some 44%....a strong opinion was registered by Mr Market.
Friday appeared to be a "turnaround" day with prices falling early, and we keep hearing about these smart guys running in to BUY THE BARGAINS....NO....the market short term oversold will get a pathetic bounce of pity before it heads lower once again.
One of the main differences is that we are seeing tell tale signs of DISTRIBUTION this time around, not signs of ACCUMULATION. SO I can safely say, there is pretty good chance the Aug lows break down, maybe next week. It's going to get even uglier in a hurry, IMHO.
HIGH unemployment (record actually for a supposed recovery) and business taxation uncertainty, does set stage for a sustainable recovery. What you get is lame congress, lame President and more of the same from those idiots and the FED, a real cast of ignorant characters that JUST DON'T GET IT!
If businesses see a climate of LOWER TAXATION, LOWER COST OF EMPLOYMENT and HEALTH CARE too.....they will act accordingly and expand...look ahead. Right now, what they see is chance of higher taxes and a government that keeps growing and running huge deficits with no real plan to change.
2 years of unemployment benefits have not been enough for a large group of unemployed, weeks to find a job is at an all time high....over 2 years into recovery...for many it has not felt like recovery.
Consumer Sentiment polls near the lows of crisis, never rose to even the worst it was after 911 !! very telling.
Gold and silver, oil all seemed to have popped, even if temporarily. The US $ has popped, but popped higher...we look that much better than Europe?
DO you ever wonder why Oil at near $140 got us $4 gas......and $80 OIL gets us near $4 gas?
What has helped me slightly, is that I am SO engrossed in running and growing my new business that I started, after 30 years involved in family business, that I don't have time to worry about economy and I am smart enough to NOT be exposed to stocks at this time. YES I AM 100% cash whoopie.
There ARE times not to sit around and take a 40% draw down lump!!! IF you can see it coming, IF you don't think the sky is falling and DO come back and buy low. you can't buy LOW if you sit like a squirrel with a nut and don't react....most will not.
It's taken me 20 years of study and PROOF to myself in how I avoided the bear markets that began in 2000....to understand its time in the market that counts...EXCEPT when you should be out or super defensive...like now IMHO
Hey, it's not for everyone, maybe sitting around for the 50% haircut is worth it for those who don't want to miss the rise. BUT, since 2000 LTBH strategy has returned 0%, losses even. You must be fluid, move to the hot sectors, like gold and commodities last 10 years. I don't know if thatrun is OVER, not with the growing new world populations CHina and India, BUT it appears to be taking a big pause and nasty correction has begun. I honestly don't know if this is the pause that refreshes between 2nd and final BLOWOFF stage for that sector.
The law of SUPPLY and DEMAND don't seem to favor sticking in toes just yet....if we watch closely, we won't have to guess when to hard.
Duratek
CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
..." It is not easy to envisage a scenario that would, at this point, reverse global risk aversion and de-leveraging. But, then again, most participants seem more fixated on areas of market technical support that could signal the rush of sideline cash into U.S. equities. Not the mood one would expect at an important market bottom."
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10576
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10576
Thursday, September 22, 2011
BEAR IS BACK, BE WARNED
Does being diversified help? to some extent maybe, but when the baby flies by with the bath water....just like floats all boats.....a bear can sink all ships...NOWHERE TO HIDE.
I like to AVOID a bear puckering 40% draw down, call me crazy. AS 2009 showed, you CANNOT stay like a scared kitten forever, BEARS lay out true values....mkt got overvalued again. NO ONE on TV warned take your profits, be careful. NO all those jerks kept telling to keep buying.
The stench from the TV advice man fills your nostrils right through the ethernet....go ahead dip buyer, make my day.....stocks will go MUCH lower before this is all said and down IMHO.
Those FULLY invested have and will feel severe pain, IMHO YOU NEED CASH to buy bargains...how do you do that if you NEVER COME OUT?
D
A FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON DEPARTED
Or is this a story on how you can SCREW up a great dominant business? I canceled half my NFLX service when rate change was announced, so did anyone else I know and many exited altogether....now RUMOR is buyout! haaaa as the prie is 1/3 almost what it was....shorts were WRONG until finally right.
TRANSPORTS are at NEW LOW for move, SPX 1100 is line drawn in sand.....FED says "significant risks to economy" so what will they do? they will sell short term treasuries andbuy longer dated one!!! to??? LOWER interest rates MORE????? a 4% mortgage not low enough? SAVERS? if they BENDOVER anymore they will break in half!
JOBS JOBS says Dem's? TAX TAX and spend on roads....bleep me!!! I HAVE been warning for months, there is AMPLE warning and proof....the ugly BEAR MKT has returned and that can't be good for stock values.....but great news for those who pared exposure and RAISED cash to buy at appropriate time some good long term values.
The avg dude will have sworn off stocks for a lifetime, just at the time maybe they are best values in lifetime, should this POS collapse....that's how it works friends...you don't make bottoms on hope...you make tops. You don't make tops on fear, you make bottoms....let us hope the bear doesn't want to revisit SPX lows of 666
D
DOWNSIDE TEST LOOMING OF THE LOWS
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The world's financial markets took a beating Thursday as investors saw signs of economic weakness around the globe.
Contributing to the losses were the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday warning of a "significant" downside risk to the U.S. economy, as well as reports from global bank HSBC showing contraction in the Chinese and eurozone manufacturing sectors."
Contributing to the losses were the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday warning of a "significant" downside risk to the U.S. economy, as well as reports from global bank HSBC showing contraction in the Chinese and eurozone manufacturing sectors."
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
FED'S LATEST BRAINSTORM
Stocks sold off today with at least 88% of all volume down. After the Fed meeting it was announced another GREAT IDEA, hey let's take our maturing 3-6 month bonds and buy longer dated ones!!! THUS lowering interestrates from their already historic lows!!
Hey, this way NO ONE will make any yield at ANY maturity!@ ingenious. 10 yr bond yield slipped to 1.87%. 2 yr yields at 0.18%. 3 month 0.01% wow
Transports reacted violently to the FED decision and sold off over 5% ! only 60 pts from recent lows.
Stocks still in trading range until they aren't. Look forward to Santa rally right? LOOK we already have lowest rates in most recent history. Sales of homes are being made, lots are foreclosures....one day this will be over..But IMHO we have well past peak profits and I think the market can go much lower.
D
Hey, this way NO ONE will make any yield at ANY maturity!@ ingenious. 10 yr bond yield slipped to 1.87%. 2 yr yields at 0.18%. 3 month 0.01% wow
Transports reacted violently to the FED decision and sold off over 5% ! only 60 pts from recent lows.
Stocks still in trading range until they aren't. Look forward to Santa rally right? LOOK we already have lowest rates in most recent history. Sales of homes are being made, lots are foreclosures....one day this will be over..But IMHO we have well past peak profits and I think the market can go much lower.
D
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
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