"So, for the sake of discussion, I asked CNBC's top Fed-watcher if QE3 is presumed to be on, what might we expect the benefits to be of a half a trillion dollar package of additional quantitative easing?
According to guests and conference attendees that Liesman has spoken to, 0.2-0.3% of additional GDP growth and maybe a 0.1-0.2% reduction in the unemployment rate."
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/half-trillion-dollars-fed-easing-worth-183400897.html
Friday, August 31, 2012
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Consumer Sentiment
There is a direct correlation between the Consumer Sentiment readings and the direction of the stock market, with the recent drop, most in last 10 months, one would have to wonder if the stock market is going to have one of those bad Septembers.
We had lowest volume trading day of the year today, prices in narrow range and the VIX slowly creeping up....be ON GUARD
READ THIS
http://armstrongeconomics.com/7329-2/ "DEBT DSTROYS EVERYTHING"
THEY are trying to revive economy after debt bubble burst, by creating more debt???
D
We had lowest volume trading day of the year today, prices in narrow range and the VIX slowly creeping up....be ON GUARD
READ THIS
http://armstrongeconomics.com/7329-2/ "DEBT DSTROYS EVERYTHING"
THEY are trying to revive economy after debt bubble burst, by creating more debt???
D
Sunday, August 26, 2012
ON THOSE RACIST OBAMA COMMENTS
Anything against Obama on personal level of attack might be taken as Racist, its just a fact when discussing our first black President, what people forget is the majority of Americans didn't care he was black, big deal.
It's about the policies, how effective has he been? Not how many shopping trips has his wife taken....
Sure it seems extreme to have a large entourage, but then her every move and word is disected.
I'm a Republican, and Bush dissapointed me, I didn't get the Conservative I thought he represented.
Both parties IMHO have screwed up, changes financial landscape and laws to allow climate that the current crisis was formed...enough blame to go around, its black and white to me.
Stop blaming any President and focus on the core issues, mostly the soundness of money, the ensuing greed, the duplicity of the FED, and arrogance to continue and even expand current destructive policies.....and the ignorance of the avg elected official to comprehend the problems
It's about the policies, how effective has he been? Not how many shopping trips has his wife taken....
Sure it seems extreme to have a large entourage, but then her every move and word is disected.
I'm a Republican, and Bush dissapointed me, I didn't get the Conservative I thought he represented.
Both parties IMHO have screwed up, changes financial landscape and laws to allow climate that the current crisis was formed...enough blame to go around, its black and white to me.
Stop blaming any President and focus on the core issues, mostly the soundness of money, the ensuing greed, the duplicity of the FED, and arrogance to continue and even expand current destructive policies.....and the ignorance of the avg elected official to comprehend the problems
Saturday, August 25, 2012
AUTUMN CRISIS?
http://www.safehaven.com/article/26649/autumn-crisis
We know all that is wrong with the world. We also know that many feel the central bankers have it all handled.
We have a stock market disjointed with the dow and SPX rallying to near rally highs but see the Transports lagging behind, long since in 2011 making its high, and the NAZ and small caps also failing to confirm the move by the large caps.
We have a LOW LOW VIX (fear index), for lack of short term fear or worry about a major decline. But farther out we see positioning for a drop. We see NYSE short interest at a 5 year high, bears are in position in individual shares betting on an AUTUMN swoon.
If the markets job then was to fool the most people, most of the time, then its done its job handily.
A macro focused rally on low volume. Most shares traded by pros and computer programs. NO return on money left sitting around.....economic activity ebbing. SHort term NO fear but NYSE short int at 5 year high......it WILL play out, shortly....
D
We know all that is wrong with the world. We also know that many feel the central bankers have it all handled.
We have a stock market disjointed with the dow and SPX rallying to near rally highs but see the Transports lagging behind, long since in 2011 making its high, and the NAZ and small caps also failing to confirm the move by the large caps.
We have a LOW LOW VIX (fear index), for lack of short term fear or worry about a major decline. But farther out we see positioning for a drop. We see NYSE short interest at a 5 year high, bears are in position in individual shares betting on an AUTUMN swoon.
If the markets job then was to fool the most people, most of the time, then its done its job handily.
A macro focused rally on low volume. Most shares traded by pros and computer programs. NO return on money left sitting around.....economic activity ebbing. SHort term NO fear but NYSE short int at 5 year high......it WILL play out, shortly....
D
Friday, August 24, 2012
A COLLAPSE IN THE VELOCITY OF MONEY
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48764357?__source=yahoo%7Crelated%7Cstory%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
What good is Central Bank easing if it doesn't lead to more economic activity?
D
What good is Central Bank easing if it doesn't lead to more economic activity?
D
FALLING INCOMES
"Annual incomes in the United States have dropped sharply in recent years, and near-retirees are getting hit the worst.
That's the conclusion of a new study by Sentier Research, which looked at the trend in median U.S. household incomes since 2000.
Twelve years ago, after adjusting for inflation, the median household in the United States earned about $55,000 per year, reports Catherine Rampell of the New York Times, citing Sentier's data.
Now, the median income has fallen to about $51,000.
The two age-groups that have been hit the worst in this period are households led by those in the 55-64 age group and those in the 25-34 age group. The incomes of the near-retirees have fallen by nearly 10% in the past three years.
This data explains why our economic recovery is so sluggish."
That's the conclusion of a new study by Sentier Research, which looked at the trend in median U.S. household incomes since 2000.
Twelve years ago, after adjusting for inflation, the median household in the United States earned about $55,000 per year, reports Catherine Rampell of the New York Times, citing Sentier's data.
Now, the median income has fallen to about $51,000.
The two age-groups that have been hit the worst in this period are households led by those in the 55-64 age group and those in the 25-34 age group. The incomes of the near-retirees have fallen by nearly 10% in the past three years.
This data explains why our economic recovery is so sluggish."
3 YEAR DIVERGENCE OF PARTICIPATION
D
NO FEAR OF THE FISCAL CLIFF
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiscal-cliff-why-markets-havent-142511511.html
"The stock market hasn't priced in the end of the world this December, and it's not pricing in the "fiscal cliff."
That's because most investors don't believe either will happen.
While economists say the fiscal cliff (Learn More) has already created a drag on the economy, the impact on the stock market is less certain, and the outcome is about as predictable as the behavior of Congress.
"Most people have a relatively benign view of the risks involving the fiscal cliff, and the idea that it's going to be addressed in the lame duck session of Congress," says Goldman Sachs U.S. equity strategist David Kostin. "Some people have that view, and that's a pretty optimistic view. Experience might suggest that politicians are not in the mood to coming to resolutions necessarily."
"The stock market hasn't priced in the end of the world this December, and it's not pricing in the "fiscal cliff."
That's because most investors don't believe either will happen.
While economists say the fiscal cliff (Learn More) has already created a drag on the economy, the impact on the stock market is less certain, and the outcome is about as predictable as the behavior of Congress.
"Most people have a relatively benign view of the risks involving the fiscal cliff, and the idea that it's going to be addressed in the lame duck session of Congress," says Goldman Sachs U.S. equity strategist David Kostin. "Some people have that view, and that's a pretty optimistic view. Experience might suggest that politicians are not in the mood to coming to resolutions necessarily."
Thursday, August 23, 2012
IS THIS ALL THAT KEEPS PRICES AFLOAT?
Stocks End Lower as Fed Hopes Fade
APStocks closed lower as it seemed less certain that the Federal Reserve will step in with more help for the U.S. economy. More »Stocks End Lower as Fed Hopes Fade
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
GRIM REPORT ON ECONOMY
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/grim-report-on-economy-gives-mitt-romney-an-opening-to-shift-back-to-economic-message/
"The government report, released today by the Congressional Budget Office, estimated a $1.1 trillion deficit for 2012, and said that if the tax and spending cuts go through as planned in January that “such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession.”
The report also predicted that the country’s unemployment rate would remain above 8 percent for the rest of the year."
"The government report, released today by the Congressional Budget Office, estimated a $1.1 trillion deficit for 2012, and said that if the tax and spending cuts go through as planned in January that “such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession.”
The report also predicted that the country’s unemployment rate would remain above 8 percent for the rest of the year."
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
WARNING FROM GS ANALYST "beware the fiscal cliff"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-dump-stocks-fiscal-141901421.html
"You can sense almost an air of desperation from David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, in his latest note to clients as he pleads with them to take money out of stocks before they fall off the fiscal cliff.
In the note, Kostin vehemently defends his year-end S&P 500 (^GSPC) target of 1250 despite the benchmark's recent rise to above 1400. The strategist still sees a 12 percent drop ahead, believing that Congress will fail to address the fiscal cliff before the election, and maybe even before the end of the year."
"You can sense almost an air of desperation from David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, in his latest note to clients as he pleads with them to take money out of stocks before they fall off the fiscal cliff.
In the note, Kostin vehemently defends his year-end S&P 500 (^GSPC) target of 1250 despite the benchmark's recent rise to above 1400. The strategist still sees a 12 percent drop ahead, believing that Congress will fail to address the fiscal cliff before the election, and maybe even before the end of the year."
Monday, August 20, 2012
"U.S. corporate earnings point to further gloom"
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Earnings season is drawing to a close and the results raise a number of worrying questions about the economy's direction.
For the second quarter, the percentage of companies beating revenue forecasts was the lowest since 2009. For every company that gave a positive outlook, nearly five companies gave negative outlooks, Thomson Reuters data showed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-u-corporate-earnings-point-204440441.html
For the second quarter, the percentage of companies beating revenue forecasts was the lowest since 2009. For every company that gave a positive outlook, nearly five companies gave negative outlooks, Thomson Reuters data showed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-u-corporate-earnings-point-204440441.html
Sunday, August 19, 2012
DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10697
"Risk on” has seen 10-year Treasury yields jump 40 bps off July 24 lows to 1.81%. The way things are unfolding, the placid Treasury market might turn into rather treacherous waters. I expect Draghi’s Plan to be yet another European disappointment. “Risk off” waits patiently. But it’s also apparent that over-liquefied U.S. securities markets have turned highly speculative. An enduring “risk on” backdrop could easily see things get out of hand. Amazingly, as the signs of excess become increasingly apparent, the Fed apparently remains ready with additional monetary stimulus. It’s going to be an interesting fall."
Each time in the last decade when the US economy gets into trouble at the end of speculative bubbles, first tech, then real estate/mortgage finance.....the FED comes to rescue and Gov't with an even larger scoop of stimulus, but what it has done each time is create even larger, unwieldy bubbles that have to be dealt with.
Each time we get into trouble with debt, we get an even larger dose of credit growth. 0% FED rate for 4 years has worked some magic on the housing market, but it hasn't produced strong job growth and it's not likely to all of a sudden.
Money is flowing into bans and mortgage lenders in so far as majority is refi's. This should help economy and with lower mortgages put some pop into consumer spending....so what's to worry about?
ALL BUBBLES POP. Yields are historically LOW at 1.8% on the 10 year, but they did vault higher from lows this week.
Higher interest rates, should that be what we are headed to would be a huge nail in our speculative coffin. A bursting of a historic debt/gov't and FED induced junk bubble...F ME!
Read Doug's piece, junk is now being treated like its safe, as the yields are so low elsewhere, people are being forced into stocks and risky investments to get yield......how will that end?
"Risk on” has seen 10-year Treasury yields jump 40 bps off July 24 lows to 1.81%. The way things are unfolding, the placid Treasury market might turn into rather treacherous waters. I expect Draghi’s Plan to be yet another European disappointment. “Risk off” waits patiently. But it’s also apparent that over-liquefied U.S. securities markets have turned highly speculative. An enduring “risk on” backdrop could easily see things get out of hand. Amazingly, as the signs of excess become increasingly apparent, the Fed apparently remains ready with additional monetary stimulus. It’s going to be an interesting fall."
Each time in the last decade when the US economy gets into trouble at the end of speculative bubbles, first tech, then real estate/mortgage finance.....the FED comes to rescue and Gov't with an even larger scoop of stimulus, but what it has done each time is create even larger, unwieldy bubbles that have to be dealt with.
Each time we get into trouble with debt, we get an even larger dose of credit growth. 0% FED rate for 4 years has worked some magic on the housing market, but it hasn't produced strong job growth and it's not likely to all of a sudden.
Money is flowing into bans and mortgage lenders in so far as majority is refi's. This should help economy and with lower mortgages put some pop into consumer spending....so what's to worry about?
ALL BUBBLES POP. Yields are historically LOW at 1.8% on the 10 year, but they did vault higher from lows this week.
Higher interest rates, should that be what we are headed to would be a huge nail in our speculative coffin. A bursting of a historic debt/gov't and FED induced junk bubble...F ME!
Read Doug's piece, junk is now being treated like its safe, as the yields are so low elsewhere, people are being forced into stocks and risky investments to get yield......how will that end?
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Friday, August 17, 2012
VOLATILITY AND THE MOST HATED RALLY
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/double-whammy-volatilty-etfs-falling-152051242.html
It may seem strange to some investors who keep seeing stocks go higher, the VIX is back to 13 area, so short term there is NO fear, but further down road the VIX is being bought as many fear DOWN THE ROAD prices of stocks will fall.
I can't be certain, as the rally gets ever so more narrow, and less inclusive, but could this FEAR longer term, not so shorter term work to keep this thing together until the bear finally give up? LIke SPX 1450-1550?
I've seen stranger....maybe a Sat post, please come back, and have a great weekend.
D
It may seem strange to some investors who keep seeing stocks go higher, the VIX is back to 13 area, so short term there is NO fear, but further down road the VIX is being bought as many fear DOWN THE ROAD prices of stocks will fall.
I can't be certain, as the rally gets ever so more narrow, and less inclusive, but could this FEAR longer term, not so shorter term work to keep this thing together until the bear finally give up? LIke SPX 1450-1550?
I've seen stranger....maybe a Sat post, please come back, and have a great weekend.
D
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