Monday, October 04, 2004

Is Kondratief cycle real?

http://www.safehaven.com/article-2029.htm

As grouchy as you may think I am, I'm not really...just how the data hits me....K cycle being one that goes for about 60 maybe 70 years between extremes. 4 "seasons"....first chart of debt and how it declines and troughs...then rises again.....

I choose to extrapalate that after the "TOP" is in (looking at chart I summise we be damn close, already at historical highs) then we head for a period of decline, bottoming and sideways forming trough,then start all over again.

If the K wave really exists, is proven....we all suffer.....looking at credit market debt...I worry.

2 comments:

burtonski said...

try New scientest one of the oct 88 issues LUNAR TIDES AND THE AFFAIRS OF MAN it gives a perfect explanation of the 57....58 year cycle and from memory raises other imteresting issues.
alf burton
01625 869 299

Anonymous said...

alf,
Tried as I might I couldnt find that article, interesting site...if you can find link put it up for me....threw me off when I realized this was 2004 post!

Hope you enjoyed some of the newer stuff....I am blessed to have seen the light back in 2000...been reading studying ever since..this cycle...well maybe this puts to doubt it may exist.

Take care

Duratek