Sunday, October 03, 2004

Is the Secular Bear market coming to an end?

http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com You have to sign up, it's free, so what do you have to lose? He offers a few good charts.

One shows converging 20 and 40 Month AVG in SPX, like crossover going down, it is months behind or ahead of prevailing trend, but if the market continues its current course, we could no longer call the market in secular bear, but perhaps a Secular bull. I did not check out the other indesx, I assume this needs to occur for all.

http://tinyurl.com/3mdd9 Well I just did and this chart has given me pause!

http://tinyurl.com/4ptx2 According to this chart if you agree with Mchugh assertion, I don;t expect the Dow to see below 10,000 anytime soon again. ANy decline should be supported by these rising SMA's as it appears it already has been.

SO saying, should THAT occur, a violation of these support lines during any OCT dive mught change matters, but sitting here tyoing this out, disregarding the "data" and thinking I do, these charts have turned my head.

Weekly MACD for NDX just went plus.

http://tinyurl.com/6n88f Daily nearing overbought, and at top of BB, which have tightened, usually portending a large move in either direction.

For the bearish case towards this market, again IGNORING ALL the reasons I lay out, when declining top pattern is voided, I would be a fool not to stand aside.....my feelings right now, it wouldn;t take much, so looking at it that way and I think BULLS are.....golden opp to destroy the shorts is a REAL possibility.....perhaps this is needed should a real bear reappear again...with few shorts to cover.

If ever there was a market with more double entranda's (spelling?) and conflicting signals AKA Dow theory non confirm, put call ratio, LOW VIX, HIGH SPX/VIX ratio (ABOUT where entire bull mkt began to unravel)......$40 billion GEYSER last week from FED may be sealing the fate of the bearish cause.

I think next weeks action will be VERY revealing.

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