Wednesday, February 02, 2005

CASH IS KING?

Reading a recent intelligent essay my thoughts really crystal1ised.(a Z?)

It comes down to WHAT are the GROSS MAJORITY of people doing and thinking?

What is the concensus of expert opinion?That Interest RAtes will go UP and CASH is TRASH now even the 2 big Mesiah's of money GATES and BUFFET have even placed BETS! the dollar is DOOMED and EVERYONE KNOWS IT!
99 out of 100 economists expect Interest rates to go UP....who is guessing they go down as the FED RAISES?? Hardly a sole!YET LONG rates have COMPRESSED from 4.9% to about 4.14% since the FED began to RAISE!!!???

MUTUAL FUNS CASH LEVELS is at all time LOWS SIMILAR to CASH at MARKETS TOPS.THERE IS NO SAVINGS OF CASH IN the US!...savings at HISTORIC LOWS....Just as DEBT is 25% ABOVE PREVIOUS 100 yr highs, maybe HISTORIC HIGHS as % of anything GDP etc.YET.......just as in 1999-2000 avg investor in 2005 has ONLY about 15% or LESS in BONDS and about 75% approx in STOCKS and some cash......almost ALL mutual funds are 100% invested!

SO what more PROOF do you need in the bullishness and complacency of the investing world?ALMOST ALL POLLED saw 2005 as an UP year with MOST knowing of the year ending in FIVE saga! so we saw a SHOOTPILE of CASH committed to the markets at year end 2004 on top of MM gluttany for larger bonus' and riding the BUSH and Santa rally.....YET Jan was a DOWN month????!!!!!

Cash is "Prince" my ass ...CASH is KING!!!! and the FOWL revolting MASS opinion towards it puts it there!AT a time where most are over leveradged with DEBT....and have NO cash or CUSHION cept Housing valuation......what IF the attitude towards the dollar begins to change.???

ASSETS MUST be sold to acquire more dollars...stocks and housing...esepcially those bought for mere speculation.......MANY now have SECOND homes or are investing in REAL ESTATE....the most ILL LIQUID investment.....but no mumur yet? Housing IS slowing.....MEDIAN HOME PRICES are falling in many areas.....an early warning?

IF the individual POLLED has same % of bonds as in 1999-2000 then WHO are WHO'S buying to bring rates DOWN!~!!!????Is it the "smart money?" IS it the FEd and central banks?" It is ASIA?

IF OUR US economy runs on almost 80% CONSUMPTION....and ability to TAKE ON MORE DEBT (as savings are near ZERO) and we are at historic highs in almost ALL expansionary categories........HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN IT GO before THAT trend debt and credit expansion ENDS??

INVESTMENT won't pick up because we have NO savings, the FED made sure that SAVINGS was the LAST thing an American wanted to do by tAKING AWAY the YIELD to do so....they left NO SAFE INVESTMENT cept a CD...paying near nothing.

You'll hear tonight how the BUSH adm is going to FIX everything....do not expect to hear how or with what it will be paid for.......SS private accts are for the WALL STREET MADE CROWD......diverting MUST payments for future committments to a portion of younger generation at a cost of $2 trillion.....to an already impossible deficit situation.....could that additonal debt need BREAK the bond markets back finally?

USUALLY the DEMAND for DEBT increases the price paid for such as for anything....we are already using almost ALL of the WORLD'S SAVINGS!!!!!"cash is Prince" my ass! CASH is KING!

SPECULATION in this over bloated over loved stock market should come to an end and position NOW for a coming trend change that could take us to who knows where, IMHO
KNOWING how unloved and despised the US DOLLAR is......even those calling for oversold rally see it's eventual DEMISE (and maybe so)......where should YOU be when that demand becomes apparent to the masses?
This is one of those times IMHO where being early.....is not so bad.....just my opinion and thoughts FWIW BWDIK

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice blog, Dur ek. There's an interesting site about forex day trading at forex day trading.

Anonymous said...

Nice blog, Dur ek. There's an interesting site about daytrade at daytrade.