THE FURRY PULPIT

DIG a little deeper my friends, is what I ask...5.2% unemployment rate a .2 drop yet we haven't had a single month to give you pause for job growth....in fact mostly this entire 4 year recovery......PEOPLE HAVE DROPPED OUT and are NOW not counted.

ONLY insidious continous reckless FED inflating is holding it together, to be bullish after data like they were on friday is not only assinine it shows total lack of understanding (or maybe it's me!).

A precipitous DOLLAR depreciation and yet the GULF between inports and exports has never been GREATER.Businesses are investing.....just not here. CHEAP goods come back here......PUMPING up the profit volume....and on the multi nationals (a paper chase) but it's effects here are OBVIOUS and lacking.
Instead of business investing HERE....there is NO VELOCITY to money and is why when I show that chart it looks LIMP....it needs an erection pump!Without "multiplier effect" (FEB Contrary Investor) the normal POSITIVE FOLLOW THRU is vapid.Proof is FLACID wage growth as spending outstrips wage gains as anemic as they are.....and is why we stand at a heroic HISTORIC level of total credit market debt to GDP.

Greenspan's at it again trying to REPEAT ad nauseum a US economy ADDICTED like HEROIN on a flood of worthless dollars inflating money supply in CRISIS amounts.As we have already had historic growth in auto's and housing.....we get MORE of the same? Is that what market said Friday.....FED will STOP raising rates and we like that? maybe so.

But that would and it might DISTORT even more historic distortions and misallocations........we keep HEAPING them on top of each other to an unsustainable mess.There is REAL inflation in our society, any figure shown by GOV is manipulated.However, an already overbought Bond market is near inverted!

Many things signalling a coming Recession...at the least.NEW HIGHS....a bad thing?.....energy stocks...housing.....and BOND FUNDS...as BONDS hit new highs so do the funds!BUT the muscle the kings the generals? the CORE of our economy?MSFT INTC DD GE GM WMT and on and on...MUCH closer to their 52 week lows than highs....or at least certainly NOT leading the charge.

It may just be that this additional foray into low rates might keep the mess afloat...OK.....but the ending I write is still out there waiting.This country will again be a leader in things that matter...but in my mind not until the Federal reserve System is seen for what it is....and the idiots are thrown out!Not until there is BALANCE to our system.

We have plummeting productivity....we have no wage growth......we have weak job growth.....we have cost of home ownership and basic living standards rising sharply....we have signs of deflation also.....we STILL have HISTORIC BULLISHNESS....we have NO bottom in by ANY historic standard....we have trouble.

Duratek still the ultimate optmists pessimist