Housing MArket Outlook circa 2003
WHY HOUSING IS GOING TO POP Blog entry
Greenspan defends 2000 policy
SHILLER WARNED IN 2000
POP GOES THE BUBBLE "GARY NORTH"
SPECULATORS DRIVE HOUSING BOOM
REVIEW OF STOCK MARKETS IN THE 1920'S
I don't epect anyone to read all of these, but it can help add background to where we are now.
HOUSING is the KEY! INTEREST RATES ARE THE KEY!
Great NEWS for stocks.......WHY Bond rally then? why weak dollar? NO INFLATION, why the rise to 24 year high in CRB INDEX?
30% of housing now being bought for SPECULATION I read. 30% of housing bought on ADJ mortgages over $300K telling me CONSUMERS are REACHING.
How could TRANSPORTATION index reach ALL TIME NEW HIGHS without BALTIC DRY INDEX doing same?
FED FLUSHES sytems last week in FEB with over 45 BILLION of new money! CRISIS LEVELS...THEY MUST keep housing and stock market afloat or a severe CRASH is probable.
SHARP DROP IN MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES A WARNING SIGN!!!! IMHO just a blip??
WHY DOESN'T FED STOP greasing the skids by opening the liquidity spiggets in historic rise in money supply if economy is on SOUND FOOTING?
TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT CHART
IAN GORDON KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
AS far as the eye can see back we have gone through cycles. K waves are very LONG TERM CYCLES.
Seeing total credit market debt (EXPANSION) and relating to historical highs, and seeing after a PEAK in expansion the K WAVE heads for CREDIT CONTRACTION, IMHO somehwere dead ahead, seeing HISTORICAL IMBALANCES and highs in debt expansion, as it takes EVER MORE increasing amounts of FED FOLLY (increase in money supply) ever more dollars to create ONE DOLLAR of action or velocity.....we are nearing the end of that cycle, IMHO.
VELOCITY OF MONEY IS IT WORKING?
We borrow 80% fo world's savings because our savings rate is near ZERO!
OUR DEBT is based on CONSUMPTION NOT INVESTMENT.......and so this will end VERY BADLY IMHO
STOCK crash is one thing, very liquid, IF and ONLY IF a housing crash....VERY ILL_LIQUID. surely it will be different this time may have different meaning.
Duratek
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