Monday, August 29, 2005

AHH KATRINA!

Avoided the big calamity, bully for stocks? ANother British bombing style relief rally? Could have been worse, it wasn't me, etc etc

NO VOLUME! Some indicators pointing to rebound of some kind. Monday typically good day for wise guys to push it up, is it only Hedge Funds left to trade the market?

BUT 53 new LOWS today . Most new lows this year? ABove 40 bad sign is continues.

I fell this is counter move to larger down trend, we coming into notorious bad seasonals. Marking them up before they mark them down, IMHO.

IF OIL begins to decline in earnest, could fuel rally, but IF OIL falls, most likely from declining demand! Is why RISING oil in a bull market is bullish (from rising demand)

Last year there was NO SEPT flop and OCT was good. In 2004 BUSHITES had reason for cheer.

FED will continue to raise short term rates, flat yield curve is most reliable indicator (when long rate fall below short) of weak economy dead ahead.

Some timers called for closing all shorts at close of day, lack of bearish conviction. MOST 20 EMA declining.

D

No comments: