Sunday, September 11, 2005

A REAL SOAKING And a National Disgrace

As I suggested double, maybe triple any estimate of KAtrina damage rebuilding, click on red for link to story, all red phrases are links if you hadn't realized that.

The demand for credit is rising rapidly, it would seem when demand rises by such a large figure, over and beyond the already staggering amounts, that to entice buyers of debt price must fall and yields must rise.

These addt'l $100B $200B $300B appropriation amounts are not counted when you consider the deficits we are running, nor are the Iraq war spending.

I guess are "friends" will keep showing up at the auctions, anf our China friend says thank you for providing it with what it needed to build itself into a world super power as it steadily builds its military might.

INterest alone on debt to US is $335 Billion in 2005!!

National debt is said to be $7.9 TRILLION

Do we need a balanced budget amendment?

National debt clock

Raising the debt a "National Disgrace" Ron Paul

The BRUNT of my argument

"Furthermore, increasing the national debt will provide more incentive for foreign investors to stop buying federal debt instruments at the current interest rates. Mr. Speaker, what will happen to our already fragile economy if the Federal Reserve must raise interest rates to levels unseen since the seventies to persuade foreigners to buy government debt instruments?" Ron Paul

My friends, aren't we THERE? Is it possible by NOT raisng rate at next FED meeting, would mean the dollar falls causing LONG TERM rates to shoot upwards?

Isn't the rebound in the dollar helping keep long term yields down? Is it good if foreign holders of debt see value plummet because of weakening dollar? Might they not SELL of refuse to gobble up all that debt KNOWING dollar value at risk?

This is why I feel those who feel KAtrina is reason to rally and be bullish, they OBVIOUSLY haven't thought it out to the end game, and are delusional.

We exist in environment now where costs are being passed through to consumer, and that IS inflationary, but because there is ample supply of MOST THINGS, that is not inflationary, description from investopedia:


Stagflation
A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment - a time of stagnation - accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation.

Stagflation occurs when the economy isn't growing but prices are - not a good situation for a country to be in. This happened to a great extent during the 1970s, when world oil prices rose dramatically, fueling sharp inflation in developed countries. For these countries, including the U.S., the effects of inflation were considerably made worse because of this stagnation.

*Maybe this doesn't fit perfectly but could occur down the road.

As I have said, NEGATIVE SAVINGS and RECORD DEBT ALL AROUND, and the swapping of asset inflation is not a recipe for a sound economy. MAN are we going to pay at some point and if you carry heavy debt load........

Duratek

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

the fed haas not been able to make long term rates go up with current"measured increases" so maybe no increase will make them go up for the reasons you state. and maybe that willl be good .ie the yeild curve will not invert.