Wednesday, April 29, 2009

GDP DATA THAT SPURS A RALLY? Buyer Beware

Highlights

First quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change. Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.

The business data in GDP were terrible. Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate. Nonresidential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate. Both of these categories will continue lower. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.

Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38.0% annual rate.
Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted. This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

No comments: