Wednesday, April 08, 2009

TO THE EDGE


*Click to enlarge. Above may show we had wedge breakdown and price has risen back to test that break near SPX 842. VIX has now fallen back to below 39 and is close to showing its hand in its own wedge pattern.
In any Bear you have winners and losers….Banks JPM, CS, And GS all doubled off March lows or better…BAC C languish though off lows….UYG STILL under $3.
Other huge winners I had tracked SNDK, HNI, WFMI, SSO…..this rally could potentially last 4-6 months…. The moves in some of the stocks seem not likely to see those prices again…..and yet if all we had to do is print money for prosperity….why EVER have downturn?
TRYING to RIG a mkt (ending mark to market and uptick rule etc) eventually will no longer work…….anything possible, did THEY buy more time with historic efforts for THE DAY of reckoning? Or this rally already on borrowed time? VIX has begun to finally falter hear losing 40 and now 39 leaving door open for hope…at what price VIX say bear in monthly hibernation? I think we are DAYS from finding out.
This is easily the best rally since bear began, and so far there is no 100% evidence it is done. IN 200 bear we had a 5-6 month rally after 911 selling. MANY stocks may have already put in their lows, no GUTS no GLORY......6500 even 7000 now shows was worth the gamble....LTBH HERE? eventually yes, I prefer to see TEST of lows.
D

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