Friday, April 10, 2009

SAT MORNING POST ON FRIDAY

When all else fails.....I was wondering if thru it's normal sources of STIM have the FED resorted to buying directly SPX futures with the funny money? Is not the higher financial prices good for their I mean our investments from the bailout?

The avg JOE is NOT buying.....he is struggling, looking to PULL OUT IRA MONIES to survive and to which would or could put enormous pressure on stock prices as this before had not been done in ANY meaningful manner.....but I think drawing out retirement funds even if as loan to self is escallating in a big way....I have seen it from those in my own company who have inquired to do so.

The greatest credit/debt bubble of ALL TIMES as part of the K wave, most assuredly has burst and I think once we begin the process of credit contraction, intervention in this cycle will be all but impossible.

If the gov is not knowing where ALL the money is flowing, it is safe to expect a portion is going directly into the stock class. HOW DID WFC achieve "RECORD QTR EARNINGS?"

No improvment on the job front, how is it that the "little people" will now run out and spend it up again and purchase homes/debt on top of it all?

Is the FED/GOV setting us up for a now greater bull mkt the world has ever seen, or an implosion of the likes non has ever witnessed. With world demand drying up...US imports collapsing....is it odd car sales in China hit a record?

DID the recent suspension of mark to market acct, further dilute efforts to deal with the pain and confuse the issue of realizing the losses, the values and exactly what the banks hold and their ability to lend? IS there a line at the bank doors for this money?

AS we try to regain our balance from the real estate collapse.....right around the corner is commercial real estate collapse......I wonder if mkt will rally into end of summer.....then realize they got jobbed.Does anyone expect a V shaped recovery here....so far that is what it is....

My good buddy MATTY'S reply, one of the very smart knowledgable people out there.

>>So think of the average hourly union or laborer or person at your work….think how they must be pinched…when you play that out you realize that the BUBBLEVISION people are fucking clueless.
· Unemployment will continue to rise and stay high….many corporations like CAT will not blindly just bring back workers…we will do it more efficiently and smartly with less labor. Shit CAT Joliet still releasing hourly and management Operations headcount…another 26 yesterday and 140 more by mid-May…I expect unemployment to peak at 11-12% with a new floor at 6-7% The days of 5% or under in my humble opinion are GONE. Small businesses will be slow to hire back until they see the evidence it is for real…with a potential for 1% growth average for 3-4 years we will as a nation scrape the bottom and flatline and many will still feel it is a recession albeit we will be growing.
· I believe many will use 401K money to get them through tough times….with over 55% of people in “THE MARKET” they will use any bounce for an opp to regain some money and pull it out. The average American 401K balance is sub $60,000!!!! So who is really RICH HERE??? With an older society and many boomers retiring and devastated over the past 9 months in “THE MARKET” you think they are going to keep their money in “THE MARKET”???
· I no doubt believe that the GOVT is goosing the market…they need to change psychology in a major way and if the DOW was in the 6,000’s you think people would want to go and do anything? The human psyche is BIG IN THIS GAME OF “THE MARKET”; but I believe Russell is correct in that no matter what the government does, the BEAR WILL RUN ITS COURSE IN DUE TIME UNTIL IT HAS KILLED EVERY SHEEPLE OUT THERE.
· This is a traders market for at least 2014….until the market bottoms for good…..INVESTING IS DONE.
· I am really pissed about Obama….this was not the CHANGE I thought and TIMMY G and the CLINTONISTAS in the ECONOMIC area are fleecing the little guy again. THE STRESS TEST IS BS…STRESS TEST THIS! THE BANKS ARE STILL INSOLVENT AND MARK TO MARKET JUST KEEPS THE “ZOMBIE BANKS” ALIVE JUST LIKE IN JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY THE PPIP IS JUST ANOTHER WAY TO “DA BOYZ” TO USE LEVERAGE (JUST WHAT WE DON”T NEED), TAKE UNECESSARY RISK AND TRANSFER IT TO YOU AND ME WHO PAY THE TAXES.
· GET GOLD, GET A GUN, and STOCK FOOD UP…I AM NOT BEING DOOM AND GLOOM HERE…THINGS WILL GET WORSE AND THINGS WILL GET REALLY SCREWY OUT THERE….with the ability to protect your family, have eats when there are disruptions and have bullion to protect your portfolio, I believe you will be able to survive it…we are only in the 1st third of this….2010-2013 will make your head spin in my estimation.<<

My ending comments

This is a wonderful TADERS MKT, onemust be able to separate personal experience and emotions to do well…..….…….preserving your stash is OK too.

I mean WHY SCREW the saver, I am a natural saver…..we get nada…..I also hated Bush, but don’t care for direction O is taking us…..take care buddy. This is the 1st REAL rally this bear…..I don’t know where it ends, but do feel 2009 shows us another new low….

Duratek

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