Thursday, April 30, 2009

WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS or Baltic Dry INdex and who cares


"The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea"

Friends, raw materials is what goes into making THINGS.....the BDI RISES when DEMAND FOR THINGS causes increased purchasing of the stuff to make things.....do YOU see a VAST improvement here?

Baltic Dry isn't a Latvian deodorant or an Estonian cocktail. Rather, it's a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouse in London's financial district in 1744.

http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/ by Daniel Gross

The BDI is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.

SPX 200 EMA is around 965 and sure we could carry to there, sure this rally if gotten in early was a money maker......but the jury is still out to if the BEAR has been defeated....IMHO all I can tell is we are bouncing from news driven by the thinnest of premises.

I'm in retail and I cant wait to be proven wrong and stubbornly pessimistic.... watch UYG still below recent high near $3.90 and VIX now below 35....

Duratek

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