Wednesday, November 04, 2009

MARKET WRAP "FED FOLLIES"


*click to enlarge
Main theme for me is the FADES, usually all head fakes come within first 15 minutes or so of communique. Today was different as a LATE FADE caught MANY by surprise.
I was qued up to short the close, I did not expect the rally to fade like that, my plan foiled somewhat, but I did enter DXD at close, I expect some follow thru weakness in the AM...my stop is set to $33
I was not able to get a clear picture, but was sure I would short the thing near the highs, so again, I should have acted earlier, but there was not so much weakness I was able to detect in the time I had, I did feel the Dow had put in its high for the day and should have gone then when up near 120 JUST before the fADE.....we'll see come tomorrow how this will turn out.
Nothing really changed with FEd, this game they think they can hold for indefinite period, even in face of near $1,100 gold. $ fell. Int rates rose to 3.54% 10 yr
IF economy was REALLY on the MEND would rates be held at ZERO?
Almost 7700 companies filed for bankruptcy in OCT. Consumer confidence NOT on par with any previous recovery with market up this much.
I am sure we are still in BEAR MKT and IMHO accidents tend to happen to the downside. We have slippery slope here and GOV data that just doesn't jive with the FEET ON THE STREET,
Take away BUFFET"S ZUTZ for Trans and you see a very weak picture
FED is near end of QE and this may trigger a rate bubble burst..
" issuance will ramp up dramatically in 2010. Federal Reserve purchases have taken an enormous amount of supply out of the market this past year across fixed income markets, but next year, financial markets should expect even greater issuance with no support. Such an outcome could pressure rates."
D

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