Monday, March 29, 2010

FUEL FOR THOUGHT

Housing is the FUEL which FEEDS most recoveries, yet the housing data shows this segment of economy at or near worst levels of the crisis if not history. It now takes over 14 months on avg to sell a property.

But the FED has not signalled it's even close to changing it policies, and that has emboldened speculation without worry about excessive valuations or the lack of substantive data to show the V shaped rally = an economy on steroids.

Going forward, those prices may climb to near SPX 1250 (area near Lehman collapse) it is hard for me to justify confidence in the underlying economy.

STocks rose during the dotcom era, even though most of those companies did not have viable business plan, they did rent space and buy computers and furniture and hire workers.

What pray tell is happening during this particular juncture that looks like a sustainable recovery is here?

D

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