Wednesday, March 17, 2010

WILL STOCKS OUTPERFORM NEXT 10 YEARS?

Cresmont Research chart based on work by Shiller

Daily Reckoning when do Secular Bear Markets end? SPX dividend yield is below 2%.

HOW TO spot a bottom? Monevator.com

CLICHE'.....but more than not true:

The Bottom Line
"The old market cliché of being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful, proved to be especially true last March 2009, which was arguably the bottom of the bear market. While most investors ran for the sidelines, those that acted rationally and did research were amply rewarded. (Value investing may seem fool-proof, but it carries more risk than you might know. For further reading, see Buy High, Sell Much Higher.) "

Fear has been replaced by wild bullish sentiment and action, and technical indicators do not sniff out a top, selling desire has dropped rapidly......with near 0 yield on SAFE stashes.....money is flowing to a place it can get return.....for now...paper assets.

Wouldn't it be nice to see the return to a long term sustainable recovery where increased investment and job creation could revive spending and wage growth?

I don't see that. I see a stimulus driven market, backed by he FED policies, that each of the last 2 X's they did this it ended in disaster....3rd time a charm?

D

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