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Only the Shadow Knows: Housing experts say there's anywhere from 2 to 5 million homes ready to come on the market, due to pending foreclosure. In addition to this so-called shadow inventory, "I think people will become less resistant to defaulting on their mortgage," Shiller says. "That's a real cloud on the horizon."
-- Your Lender, Uncle Sam: The government has a hand in about 90% of all mortgages these days and Shiller is "not comfortable" with that level of involvement. The immediate problems, he says, are this spring's planned expiration of the first-time home-buyer tax credit and the Fed's mortgage-backed securities purchase program. "We can't just slam on the brakes and withdraw that -- we could but I'd hate to see what happens," he says. "When [government programs] do end there's going to be a psychological component of that ending as well, which is really hard to predict."
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