Tuesday, May 31, 2005
SSRI SILVER
SSRI CHART Outside of upper BB, each previous time marked a top, Let's monitor. LOTS of noise bullish for gold, incl $ due to retrace.
D
D
COT DATA ON US$
The latest commitment of traders report released last Friday shows speculators holding the second biggest aggregate net long dollar positions since the launch of the euro in Jan 1999. The 10-yrs are currently 4.010%.
ANd the $84 Question, has gold bottomed?
D
ANd the $84 Question, has gold bottomed?
D
Sentiment ? and NAPM
Movie revenues
NAPM (unadjusted manufacturing data) declined significantly, dangerously close to level considered to indicate contraction.
SO higher CS numbers are not influencing bonds,NAPM is. BOND prices soaring withyield near meager 4%!
D
NAPM (unadjusted manufacturing data) declined significantly, dangerously close to level considered to indicate contraction.
SO higher CS numbers are not influencing bonds,NAPM is. BOND prices soaring withyield near meager 4%!
D
Monday, May 30, 2005
STACKED DECK? PROBLEMS MOUNTING UP
- MARGIN DEBT NEW HIGHS
- FALLING OFF OF SHORT INTEREST
- FLATTENING YIELD CURVE, FALLING BOND YIELDS
- DECLINING Y/Y M2 MONEY SUPPLY (AS SHOWN NORTHERN POST)
- HISTORIC HIGHS TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT
- DECLINING CONSUMER SENTIMENT
- PARABOLIC MOVE IN HOME SALES AND PRICES
- WEAKENING JOB PICTURE
- DESTRUCTION OF MANUFACTURING
- PENSION CRISIS
- 8,000 HEDGE FUNDS AND TRILLIONS OF DERIVITIVES
- END OF FANNIE AND FREDDIE AS KEY LENDERS
- CONTINUED THUGGERY AS WITH AIG
- STOCK OPTIONS STILL NOT EXPENSED, OVERSTATES TECH EARNINGS GROSSLY
- LAND GRAB, BUILDERS FIGHTING, BIDDING WARS OVER UNDEVELOPED LAND (SEE LAST TOLL BROS POST, THEY HAVE 6-8 YR SUPPLY)
- SIGNS OF TOP IN CREDIT EXPANSION
- EARNINGS WARNING FROM FINANCIALS, ENERGY STOCKS WEAK
- END OF EOCNOMIC STIMULUS
- POTENTIAL TRADE WARS
- NEW STRICTER BANKRUPTCY LAWS
- NEAR ZERO SAVINGS RATE
- STOCK PRICES STILL AT OVEVRALUED EXTREMES AND THIN MISERLY DIVIDENDS YIELDS (NEAR 2% !!)
- BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS END WITH SINGLE DIGIT PE RATIO AND NEAR 6% DIVIDEND YIELDS, WE HAVE NEITHER NOR DID WE AT OCT LOWS (WAS 30 PE 1.7% YIELDS) HAVE ALSO NOT HAD PLETHORA OF 90% DOWN DAYS DURING BEAR MARKET.
- LEI HAS BEEN SHOWING WEAKNESS
- HOUSING AND AUTO'S ARE MAIN GROWTH ENGINES OF ECONOMY, BOTH WE HAVE BORROWED FROM FUTURE DEMAND
- HIGH ENERGY COSTS ACT LIKE A TAX ON CONSUMERS
- CYCLICAL BULL MARKET BEGAN IN OCT 2002 IS NOW NEARING 3 YEARS OLD, LONG IN THE TOOTH, NET NOWHERE LAST 12 MONTHS.
- LESS TALK OF HOUSING BUBBLE, MORE TALK OF HOW THE EXPANSION WILL NOT END.
- 200% MOVE IN FED FUNDS RATE, A TIGHTENING FED FIGHTING INFLATION WHERE THERE IS LITTLE SIGN OF IT EXCEPT IN BUBBLE LIKE MOVE IN HOUSING VALUES, THEIR ACTION HAS DONE NOTHING TO STEM THE SPECULATION IN HOUSING, 1/3 OF HOMES OR MORE BOUGHT AS INVESTMENT. FALLING LONG TERM RATES A SIGN THEY HAVE NO CONTROL.
- CAUTION IS WARRANTED, A SWIFT CHANGE WILL COME SUDDENLY AND WILL NOT BE EXPECTED. MARKET MOVING ON FALSE MANIPULATED ADJUSTED GOV DATA, THINK TROJAN HORSE.
- G-D BLESS OUR FIGHTING MEN AND WOMAN THIS MEMORIAL DAY.
Saturday, May 28, 2005
STOCK SCREENER
On my last post I linked to this site, YOU set parameters for the kind of companies you are interested in. Sharp Screener
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CHP This is one I found. Book and X sales very attractive, IMHO Once you find a few, then you do your TA and DD
D
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CHP This is one I found. Book and X sales very attractive, IMHO Once you find a few, then you do your TA and DD
D
HOW TO RIDE A BULL MARKET
10 yr NDX CHART STAYING LONG riding the 40 WK (200 DAY) moving avg, acted as support the whole way up from 1995. NO SUBSTANTIAL IF ANY 10 WK (50 day) cross down.
CLOSER LOOK now SECOND time 50 has crossed down thru the 200 SMA. NOT BULLISH ACTION.
BUT weekly MACD histogram just turned above ZERO, JUST looking at that I would say MORE upside probable, until the histograms fall. ADD RSI WEEKLY nearing OVERBOUGHT.
NOTE 4 BLACK bars on volume. 4 straight weeks of higher prices, but the bars are DESCENDING, volume is declining with the rally!
CLOSER STILL DAILY RSI showing OVERBOUGHT MACD overbought and histograms falling.
A DECLINE to at least center of BB likely IMHO. MOST calling for NAZ rally to continue, not sure if enought to ensure it doesn't just yet.......but the bearish set up is near as NAZ shorts dry up.
SITE for FINDING STOCKS Sharp screener
D
CLOSER LOOK now SECOND time 50 has crossed down thru the 200 SMA. NOT BULLISH ACTION.
BUT weekly MACD histogram just turned above ZERO, JUST looking at that I would say MORE upside probable, until the histograms fall. ADD RSI WEEKLY nearing OVERBOUGHT.
NOTE 4 BLACK bars on volume. 4 straight weeks of higher prices, but the bars are DESCENDING, volume is declining with the rally!
CLOSER STILL DAILY RSI showing OVERBOUGHT MACD overbought and histograms falling.
A DECLINE to at least center of BB likely IMHO. MOST calling for NAZ rally to continue, not sure if enought to ensure it doesn't just yet.......but the bearish set up is near as NAZ shorts dry up.
SITE for FINDING STOCKS Sharp screener
D
GOING NOWHERE?
ADJ MONETARY BASE AFter setting records in 2004, it has gone nowhere in 2005, actually declining.
Is this why consumer sentiment has been falling?
D
Is this why consumer sentiment has been falling?
D
REAL Estate, TOLL BROS and MORE
Briefing.com
Would there be a significant FALL in Consumer Sentiment if the POSITIVE employment blah blah data presented was accurate? Was not misrepresented? MAnipulated? Falsified?
What you don;t need is going down in price, what you HAVE to have is rising = STAGFLATION!
LOW and FALLING Bond Yields have been screaming to the deaf and lemmings the conomy is SLOWING!
"MONEY IS TIGHT RIGHT NOW" WHY? Because home have stopped appreciating for cash outs? GOV STIMULUS is over.
Or the fact new home buyers have to pay SIGNIFICANTLY UP in home PRICE to get in a house?
We basically have a ZERO SAVINGS RATE economy. Earnings for FININACIAL sector going forward has been cut. Lower OIL prices from highs should CUT energy sector profits. PROSPECTS for SPX earnings are TOO HIGH IMHO.
GYM RATS:
Nobody talking about STOCK MARKET anymore like in 2000, but every day I work out REAL ESTATE comes up!
Typical story. "My father (home builder) built a home in Rehobeth BEach for $500,000, some guy 3 years ago walked up to him on porch and offered $1.4 M
3 years later it is bought and sold 3 MORE times last time $4.1 MILLION! ALL SPECULATORS!
BUILDERS are fighting over open land for development, prices for LOTS have skyrocketed. HOUSING COSTS DO NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FREAKIN' CPI for inflation?!!!! **&&$$!! BS!
TOLL BROS (form 2002, how WRONG was this putz?)
http://www.primezone.com/newsroom/?d=73193
"Increasing numbers of high-income households are competing for a constrained supply of home sites; gaining approvals to build in affluent, well-located neighborhoods is a complex, expensive and lengthy undertaking. In response to the widening gap between tight supply and growing demand, we continue to expand our pipeline of land under development. We now control over 63,000 home sites - a five-to-six year supply based on our historic pace of expansion. With this land, attractive demographics, our diversity of products and our highly respected brand name in the luxury market, we believe we are well-positioned for continued growth in the years ahead."
**They build 8,000 homes a year, then they at least a 6 year supply or more, land purchased at TOP dollar?
I don't know when this game of musical chairs ends, ALL cycles end. WHile we are already at HISTORIC extremes of low savings, weak wage growth, levels of debt and consumption, while each month brings NEW records in home sales and appreciation.........aren't we haven't we wrung this one just about DRY?
ANY SLOWING in DEMAND, could bring prices crashing down. ALL the while the FED is STILL pumping the money supply. WOULD they if their public pronouncements of concern in housing price runup meant a damn thing?
D
Would there be a significant FALL in Consumer Sentiment if the POSITIVE employment blah blah data presented was accurate? Was not misrepresented? MAnipulated? Falsified?
What you don;t need is going down in price, what you HAVE to have is rising = STAGFLATION!
LOW and FALLING Bond Yields have been screaming to the deaf and lemmings the conomy is SLOWING!
"MONEY IS TIGHT RIGHT NOW" WHY? Because home have stopped appreciating for cash outs? GOV STIMULUS is over.
Or the fact new home buyers have to pay SIGNIFICANTLY UP in home PRICE to get in a house?
We basically have a ZERO SAVINGS RATE economy. Earnings for FININACIAL sector going forward has been cut. Lower OIL prices from highs should CUT energy sector profits. PROSPECTS for SPX earnings are TOO HIGH IMHO.
GYM RATS:
Nobody talking about STOCK MARKET anymore like in 2000, but every day I work out REAL ESTATE comes up!
Typical story. "My father (home builder) built a home in Rehobeth BEach for $500,000, some guy 3 years ago walked up to him on porch and offered $1.4 M
3 years later it is bought and sold 3 MORE times last time $4.1 MILLION! ALL SPECULATORS!
BUILDERS are fighting over open land for development, prices for LOTS have skyrocketed. HOUSING COSTS DO NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FREAKIN' CPI for inflation?!!!! **&&$$!! BS!
TOLL BROS (form 2002, how WRONG was this putz?)
http://www.primezone.com/newsroom/?d=73193
"Increasing numbers of high-income households are competing for a constrained supply of home sites; gaining approvals to build in affluent, well-located neighborhoods is a complex, expensive and lengthy undertaking. In response to the widening gap between tight supply and growing demand, we continue to expand our pipeline of land under development. We now control over 63,000 home sites - a five-to-six year supply based on our historic pace of expansion. With this land, attractive demographics, our diversity of products and our highly respected brand name in the luxury market, we believe we are well-positioned for continued growth in the years ahead."
**They build 8,000 homes a year, then they at least a 6 year supply or more, land purchased at TOP dollar?
I don't know when this game of musical chairs ends, ALL cycles end. WHile we are already at HISTORIC extremes of low savings, weak wage growth, levels of debt and consumption, while each month brings NEW records in home sales and appreciation.........aren't we haven't we wrung this one just about DRY?
ANY SLOWING in DEMAND, could bring prices crashing down. ALL the while the FED is STILL pumping the money supply. WOULD they if their public pronouncements of concern in housing price runup meant a damn thing?
D
Friday, May 27, 2005
Brokers EST Reduced (expect SLOW pre holiday trading today)
Fox-Pitt cuts broker EPS ests for second time in monthThursday May 26, 8:48 am ET By Greg Morcroft
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst David Trone trimmed his second quarter earnings estimates for the nation's largest brokerage firms for the second time in less than a month on Thursday, citing broad weakness in several markets, particularly fixed income, commodities and currencies (FICC). "May has brought little relief, and with the quarter almost over for the Nov-year-end firms, there is no real chance that a last minute run of strength can save 2Q05. The negative sequential delta for FICC trading looks particularly acute," Trone wrote Wednesday. He trimmed estimates for Goldman Sachs ; Morgan Stanley ; Merrill Lynch ; Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns Cos .
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst David Trone trimmed his second quarter earnings estimates for the nation's largest brokerage firms for the second time in less than a month on Thursday, citing broad weakness in several markets, particularly fixed income, commodities and currencies (FICC). "May has brought little relief, and with the quarter almost over for the Nov-year-end firms, there is no real chance that a last minute run of strength can save 2Q05. The negative sequential delta for FICC trading looks particularly acute," Trone wrote Wednesday. He trimmed estimates for Goldman Sachs ; Morgan Stanley ; Merrill Lynch ; Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns Cos .
Thursday, May 26, 2005
Biometrics in the news
Forbes IDNX is a name that comes up, all the hype from 911 but no profits yet, this guru likes the stock.
I'm not ALL bear!
D
I'm not ALL bear!
D
DOW ADJ for INFLATION
http://www.cross-currents.net/monthly.htm MAke you think?
DIV yield on the SPX is near a miniscule bubble top like 2% !!
D
DIV yield on the SPX is near a miniscule bubble top like 2% !!
D
CONFUSED YET?
2 year DOW IN a trading ZONE for well over a year.Consolidating for a move in one direction of other.
Just as TA adds up bearish, as 50 SMA avg cuts through 200 SMA'S, just as SUPPORT levels vanish, as slack data piles up, as the rallies whither in volume, the declines expand.....just THEN does the market REVERSE course and RALLY!
Nobody wanted EBAY at $30, it just hit $38. GOOG near $300, money is sloshing around all over theplace, cycling from one (OIL GOLD STEEL) to BIO TECH earlier basic materials, large cap, before small caps.....now bonds on fire yields falling.....
Nothing is happening, except TOP BUILDING, get too negative, buy too many puts, the CALL side gets hot. Swith too much to the long side, put buying picks up.....a year with no net progress.
Recent report shows a SURGE in MARGIN USE to buy stocks. MArgin debt is now higher than at BUBBLE TOP! This is MORE than echo bubble.....as I pointed out in SPX/VIX ratio chart.
Rally could peter or go on for months into summer....if you CHASE the rise, KEEP tight stops please.
DECIDE WHAT kind of investor you are. trader, speculator, risk taker LTBH?
DIVERSIFY if must buy stocks. KEEP good amount of CASH ON HAND. IMHO
NAZ UP 9 out of last 10 days?!! SPECULATION.....MANIA behaviour is back and alive.
Lemmings bathing in glory for now, it will end as they all do....and WITHOUT ANY WARNING.
WHAT for over 100 years has been found at Bear Market bottoms is NOWHERE to be seen.
D
Just as TA adds up bearish, as 50 SMA avg cuts through 200 SMA'S, just as SUPPORT levels vanish, as slack data piles up, as the rallies whither in volume, the declines expand.....just THEN does the market REVERSE course and RALLY!
Nobody wanted EBAY at $30, it just hit $38. GOOG near $300, money is sloshing around all over theplace, cycling from one (OIL GOLD STEEL) to BIO TECH earlier basic materials, large cap, before small caps.....now bonds on fire yields falling.....
Nothing is happening, except TOP BUILDING, get too negative, buy too many puts, the CALL side gets hot. Swith too much to the long side, put buying picks up.....a year with no net progress.
Recent report shows a SURGE in MARGIN USE to buy stocks. MArgin debt is now higher than at BUBBLE TOP! This is MORE than echo bubble.....as I pointed out in SPX/VIX ratio chart.
Rally could peter or go on for months into summer....if you CHASE the rise, KEEP tight stops please.
DECIDE WHAT kind of investor you are. trader, speculator, risk taker LTBH?
DIVERSIFY if must buy stocks. KEEP good amount of CASH ON HAND. IMHO
NAZ UP 9 out of last 10 days?!! SPECULATION.....MANIA behaviour is back and alive.
Lemmings bathing in glory for now, it will end as they all do....and WITHOUT ANY WARNING.
WHAT for over 100 years has been found at Bear Market bottoms is NOWHERE to be seen.
D
GDP REVISED DATA
briefing.com NOT impressive. Economic activity has PEAKED IMHO. Lemmings being setup again.
EBAY running, internuts fired up
D
EBAY running, internuts fired up
D
GOLD
http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm
GOLD will play a HUGE part in our future, but it appears that both gold and Bonds are reacting to something OTHER than inflation.
Watch for a break in SILVER below $6.86, could usher in heavier selling.
Have a great Holiday,
Duratek
GOLD will play a HUGE part in our future, but it appears that both gold and Bonds are reacting to something OTHER than inflation.
Watch for a break in SILVER below $6.86, could usher in heavier selling.
Have a great Holiday,
Duratek
BS on CALL?
Bulls on call
Expectations of stronger GDP report have U.S. stocks poised for advance.May 26, 2005: 6:08 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Traders are expecting a more bullish reading on the strength of the U.S. economy to lift stocks Thursday.
U.S. stock futures were up in early trading, indicating a higher opening for stocks, ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET report on the nation's gross domestic product.
The initial reading for first quarter GDP was a disappointing annual growth rate of 3.1 percent, but some better economic reports since then have led economists surveyed by Briefing.com to forecast that it would be revised up to a 3.6 percent gain.
**This "better" manipulated reading has ALREADY been expected and should be in market, it also looks in rear view mirror and has nothing to do with tomorrow.
D
Expectations of stronger GDP report have U.S. stocks poised for advance.May 26, 2005: 6:08 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Traders are expecting a more bullish reading on the strength of the U.S. economy to lift stocks Thursday.
U.S. stock futures were up in early trading, indicating a higher opening for stocks, ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET report on the nation's gross domestic product.
The initial reading for first quarter GDP was a disappointing annual growth rate of 3.1 percent, but some better economic reports since then have led economists surveyed by Briefing.com to forecast that it would be revised up to a 3.6 percent gain.
**This "better" manipulated reading has ALREADY been expected and should be in market, it also looks in rear view mirror and has nothing to do with tomorrow.
D
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
EWT on Housing BUbble
With so much talk about the real estate "bubble," can it really "burst"?
Category: Specific Markets
The volume of noise in the media about a possible housing bubble is growing enormously. Hardly a day passes without more stories about the excessiveness of the frothy real-estate market. Even my local papers (i.e. the Seattle Times, etc) are running front-page stories on the "bubble". Does this growing concensus of the existence of some sort of bubble (opinion differs on how deep it is) indicate that we are still quite a ways away from an actual decline in real-estate prices? I know that EWI has commented on how market peaks are often accompanied with some cautionary warnings in the media, but isn't the massive coverage of a housing "bubble" so excessive that it might actually be a contrary indicator?
Responder: Multi-Author
Date: 5/25/2005
This is exactly what we call the "uh-oh effect." There is plenty of talk about the bubble - in fact, people are starting to use this word routinely - but is anyone listening? No! Just yesterday (May 24), the housing data showed a new record for home sales. We described the "uh-oh effect" in the Jan. 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF): "One of the final manifestations of the Grand Supercycle peak was a phenomenon that The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast dubbed the “uh-oh effect” just five market days before the NASDAQ reached its all-time high in March 2000. The uh-oh effect was drawn from the following observation from At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: "There are times in history when the percentage of naive investors is so high that occasional warnings from professionals are irrelevant to net market psychology.... [It] is in fact normal behavior at the biggest tops of all. "Over the course of 2004, EWFF has charted the shift of the epicenter of the great peak to the real estate sector, so don’t mistake a recent flurry of warnings about a housing bubble as a contrary sign of strength. The papers are full of references to a potential retreat in home values... So, it’s a bubble, but it’s a nice bubble that home owners don’t have to protect themselves against. This same complacency surrounded warnings about high stock prices in March 2000 when EWFF reported, “Even if investors have concerns as a result of hearing an occasional warning, they do not act on them.” Financial bubbles by definition always pop, and one of history’s great tip-offs to the fact that they are ready to do so comes when participants see the bubble for what it is and decide not to do anything about it. Real estate is there now, and that is especially relevant because the bursting of the real estate market is the last straw..." (Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) is part of the Financial Forecast Service.)
Category: Specific Markets
The volume of noise in the media about a possible housing bubble is growing enormously. Hardly a day passes without more stories about the excessiveness of the frothy real-estate market. Even my local papers (i.e. the Seattle Times, etc) are running front-page stories on the "bubble". Does this growing concensus of the existence of some sort of bubble (opinion differs on how deep it is) indicate that we are still quite a ways away from an actual decline in real-estate prices? I know that EWI has commented on how market peaks are often accompanied with some cautionary warnings in the media, but isn't the massive coverage of a housing "bubble" so excessive that it might actually be a contrary indicator?
Responder: Multi-Author
Date: 5/25/2005
This is exactly what we call the "uh-oh effect." There is plenty of talk about the bubble - in fact, people are starting to use this word routinely - but is anyone listening? No! Just yesterday (May 24), the housing data showed a new record for home sales. We described the "uh-oh effect" in the Jan. 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF): "One of the final manifestations of the Grand Supercycle peak was a phenomenon that The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast dubbed the “uh-oh effect” just five market days before the NASDAQ reached its all-time high in March 2000. The uh-oh effect was drawn from the following observation from At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: "There are times in history when the percentage of naive investors is so high that occasional warnings from professionals are irrelevant to net market psychology.... [It] is in fact normal behavior at the biggest tops of all. "Over the course of 2004, EWFF has charted the shift of the epicenter of the great peak to the real estate sector, so don’t mistake a recent flurry of warnings about a housing bubble as a contrary sign of strength. The papers are full of references to a potential retreat in home values... So, it’s a bubble, but it’s a nice bubble that home owners don’t have to protect themselves against. This same complacency surrounded warnings about high stock prices in March 2000 when EWFF reported, “Even if investors have concerns as a result of hearing an occasional warning, they do not act on them.” Financial bubbles by definition always pop, and one of history’s great tip-offs to the fact that they are ready to do so comes when participants see the bubble for what it is and decide not to do anything about it. Real estate is there now, and that is especially relevant because the bursting of the real estate market is the last straw..." (Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) is part of the Financial Forecast Service.)
GOOGLE TRIES FOR $300
Is that so?
Or does the mere mention like the call for DOW 35,000 give us contrarian pause?
SMALL investors are the ones bidding the damn thing up!
D
Or does the mere mention like the call for DOW 35,000 give us contrarian pause?
SMALL investors are the ones bidding the damn thing up!
D
COT SITE repost
Comittment Of Traders
By Definition there are 3 classes of traders. Here's a free site shown COT for 10 yr notesCommercials - Producers and end users of the commodity or futures market they participate in are referred to as commercials. This group is the reason the commodity and futures markets exist, to allow "commercials" an opportunity to defer or hedge the risk of doing business. (This smart money group will often get aggressively net long or short prior to major trends) Large Speculators - Defined as those traders who hold a specified number of contracts or greater in a given market, but are not commercial traders. The CFTC sets the minimum number of contracts that can be held before the speculator is required to report that position. Any speculator participating in a market that is required to report to the CFTC is known as a non-commercial or large trader. (This group follows trends and usually mimics the markets price movement)Small Speculators - Any market participant who is neither a commercial nor non-commercial is a small speculator. This group is not required to report to the CFTC but can determined by the contracts left over after the commercials and non-commercials have been accounted for. . (This over-leveraged group is usually wrong at major turning points) **POINT taken? follow the SMART money....
By Definition there are 3 classes of traders. Here's a free site shown COT for 10 yr notesCommercials - Producers and end users of the commodity or futures market they participate in are referred to as commercials. This group is the reason the commodity and futures markets exist, to allow "commercials" an opportunity to defer or hedge the risk of doing business. (This smart money group will often get aggressively net long or short prior to major trends) Large Speculators - Defined as those traders who hold a specified number of contracts or greater in a given market, but are not commercial traders. The CFTC sets the minimum number of contracts that can be held before the speculator is required to report that position. Any speculator participating in a market that is required to report to the CFTC is known as a non-commercial or large trader. (This group follows trends and usually mimics the markets price movement)Small Speculators - Any market participant who is neither a commercial nor non-commercial is a small speculator. This group is not required to report to the CFTC but can determined by the contracts left over after the commercials and non-commercials have been accounted for. . (This over-leveraged group is usually wrong at major turning points) **POINT taken? follow the SMART money....
NEWS ALERT OIL ABOVE $50
Oil Prices Rise Above $50 Per Barrel MarkWednesday May 25, 11:14 am ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Oil Prices Climb Above $50 Per Barrel Mark After U.S. Crude Inventories Fall 1.6 Million Barrels
NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil prices climbed above $50 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories fell 1.6 million barrels, the second drop in 15 weeks.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $1.03 to $50.70 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil prices rose nearly a penny .
**Is that our current BULL MKT? just trading from ONE news story to the next?
D
Oil Prices Climb Above $50 Per Barrel Mark After U.S. Crude Inventories Fall 1.6 Million Barrels
NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil prices climbed above $50 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories fell 1.6 million barrels, the second drop in 15 weeks.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $1.03 to $50.70 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil prices rose nearly a penny .
**Is that our current BULL MKT? just trading from ONE news story to the next?
D
TOP TANKERS
Market Pulse:
Top Tankers gives up carrier purchase,related placement Tuesday May 24, 9:22 am ET By Aude Lagorce
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Seaborne transportation services provider Top Tankers, Inc. said it won't proceed with the purchase of 15 dry bulk carriers and two handymax tankers and related private placement. The company won't be required to pay any penalties or incur any financial losses as a result of this decision.
Top Tankers gives up carrier purchase,related placement Tuesday May 24, 9:22 am ET By Aude Lagorce
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Seaborne transportation services provider Top Tankers, Inc. said it won't proceed with the purchase of 15 dry bulk carriers and two handymax tankers and related private placement. The company won't be required to pay any penalties or incur any financial losses as a result of this decision.
MIXED Durable goods report
U.S. April Durable Goods Orders Rise 1.9%, More Than Forecast
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods rose 1.9 percent last month, more than forecast and the most since November, suggesting the economy is undergoing a rebound in business investment.
Bookings for expensive items made to last at least three years increased to $200.3 billion, driven by demand for machinery, computers and aircraft, after falling a revised 1.6 percent in March, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.2 percent last month after a 0.2 percent increase that was previously reported as a 0.5 percent decline
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods rose 1.9 percent last month, more than forecast and the most since November, suggesting the economy is undergoing a rebound in business investment.
Bookings for expensive items made to last at least three years increased to $200.3 billion, driven by demand for machinery, computers and aircraft, after falling a revised 1.6 percent in March, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.2 percent last month after a 0.2 percent increase that was previously reported as a 0.5 percent decline
INTC
WEEKLy OVERBOUGHT
1st time in over 3 years price outside of upper BB? DECLINE IMMINENT IMHO
HYPE over AAPL deal overblown IMHO
Duratek
1st time in over 3 years price outside of upper BB? DECLINE IMMINENT IMHO
HYPE over AAPL deal overblown IMHO
Duratek
STAGFLATION
Defined as the things we could live without (most Walmart products) going DOWN in price.
The things we MUST have (health care, food, oil, tuition, housing) going UP in price!
SO, my friends, what do you think of FED's claims of TAME INFLATION?
D
The things we MUST have (health care, food, oil, tuition, housing) going UP in price!
SO, my friends, what do you think of FED's claims of TAME INFLATION?
D
NAZ READY TO DECLINE?
NDX CHART MOMO is slowing, (RSI at OVERBOUGHT) but we have HOLIDAY WEEK TRADING.
MKT still in year plus trading range.
ALT Energy stocks now getting played FCEL BLDP PLUG, folks IMHO all you are seeing is rotation of TRADERS.
ALL we are seeing is the COMPLEX art of TOP building.
BUT TA has turned bullish EXCEPT that the 50 SMA has crossed below 200 SMA,
D
MKT still in year plus trading range.
ALT Energy stocks now getting played FCEL BLDP PLUG, folks IMHO all you are seeing is rotation of TRADERS.
ALL we are seeing is the COMPLEX art of TOP building.
BUT TA has turned bullish EXCEPT that the 50 SMA has crossed below 200 SMA,
D
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
BUy INTC after a 30% rise from recent lows?
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Reports that Apple Computer is in talks to start using Intel chips in Macintosh computers sent tech stocks surging on Monday.
Apple stock was up $2.21, or more than 5 percent. The reason: Apple's computers are widely considered first-rate but expensive. A deal to use Intel's low-cost chips might help reduce the price of Apple's machines, allowing Macs to pick up market share.
The news should also be bullish for Intel. Whether the deal comes to fruition or not, Apple's interest confirms that Intel is not only the world's largest chipmaker, but also the industry's benchmark producer.
In fact, investor interest in Intel has been growing since the beginning of the year. Eight brokerages have raised their ratings or issued an initial buy on Intel over the past six months. And many value investors consider the stock moderately underpriced.
Among the positives they point to: first-quarter earnings were up an impressive 25 percent from a year earlier, helped by laptop sales that were running above expectations. Since then, several computer makers have confirmed positive trends in personal computer sales.
Intel (Research) also expects to launch a chip that uses paired microprocessors early next year. Analysts say the new chip will put Intel ahead of its rivals technologically.
In addition, the company is developing so-called platforms for desktop machines that will include more than just a microprocessor. The platform currently in development would include system-management features as well as enhanced security. Machines using the platform would also save power.
This technology is favored by Intel's new CEO Paul Otellini, who took over from Craig Barrett last week (Barrett has moved up to the chairmanship). Otellini's strategy is to move Intel away from being simply a chip supplier and tailor products more for specific markets. Such a strategy could help the tech giant maintain a double-digit growth rate.
Earnings are expected to increase at least 10 percent next year. Longer term projections are for earnings to rise at a compound annual rate of as much as 15 percent over the next five years.
At a current price of 26.50 a share, the stock trades at less than 18 times next year's projected results, a reasonable price for a tech leader at the beginning of an upswing.
Apple stock was up $2.21, or more than 5 percent. The reason: Apple's computers are widely considered first-rate but expensive. A deal to use Intel's low-cost chips might help reduce the price of Apple's machines, allowing Macs to pick up market share.
The news should also be bullish for Intel. Whether the deal comes to fruition or not, Apple's interest confirms that Intel is not only the world's largest chipmaker, but also the industry's benchmark producer.
In fact, investor interest in Intel has been growing since the beginning of the year. Eight brokerages have raised their ratings or issued an initial buy on Intel over the past six months. And many value investors consider the stock moderately underpriced.
Among the positives they point to: first-quarter earnings were up an impressive 25 percent from a year earlier, helped by laptop sales that were running above expectations. Since then, several computer makers have confirmed positive trends in personal computer sales.
Intel (Research) also expects to launch a chip that uses paired microprocessors early next year. Analysts say the new chip will put Intel ahead of its rivals technologically.
In addition, the company is developing so-called platforms for desktop machines that will include more than just a microprocessor. The platform currently in development would include system-management features as well as enhanced security. Machines using the platform would also save power.
This technology is favored by Intel's new CEO Paul Otellini, who took over from Craig Barrett last week (Barrett has moved up to the chairmanship). Otellini's strategy is to move Intel away from being simply a chip supplier and tailor products more for specific markets. Such a strategy could help the tech giant maintain a double-digit growth rate.
Earnings are expected to increase at least 10 percent next year. Longer term projections are for earnings to rise at a compound annual rate of as much as 15 percent over the next five years.
At a current price of 26.50 a share, the stock trades at less than 18 times next year's projected results, a reasonable price for a tech leader at the beginning of an upswing.
BULL VS BEAR
I sometime contemplate the unknown, and the unknown for me is "am I right about market? do I have the right strategy?" and to this I can only surmise, "with the knowledge I have gained and my filtering of the data and stock market activity, I can only follow what I believe to be true and logical outcome and I won't know for sure if I am right until some place in the future!"
When you consider the market is lower than it was 5 years ago, even with a 2.5 yr cyclical bull, where the last 7 years the 3 month Treasury Bill outperformed market returns, I would say yes.
DOW selling for 18.5 X and SPX 19.5 X. Dividend yields near 2%. EVERY MAJOR BEAR MARKET HAS ENDED WITH STOCKS SELLING BELOW KNOWN VALUES, PE'S IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
We also know that we are witnessing the topping of the greatest credit expansion/ debt expansion in the history fo the economy.
Longest running bullsih % of over 50% bulls.
Lowest savings rate in history. Highest spending as % of household income. Highest level of total credit market debt as % of GDP. Highest level of PROGRAM TRADING.
8,000 plus Hedge Funds. $Trillions of derivitives to hedge. 45 year lows in interest rates achieved a Real Estate BOOM. BUBBLING in many States.
PAST TENSE we had Record Fiscal Stimulus in Tax cuts and rebates from the BUsh ADM.
We has record Cash Out REFI'S stimulate spending, the importance to COnsumer Spending is that it barely SLOWED during the OFFICIAL 2001 Recession, instead of healing, adding to savings from WHICH Investment could have been drawn adding to earnings from depreciation. of capital equipment.
Instead we saw a historic WEAKENING of our manufacturing Sector and a horrendous loss of jobs which to this day has not reversed. INSTEAD we saw money flow to Asian countries building them into MAnufacturing powerhouses.
I have read where the Banking, FInancial situation in China is at crisis levels, inflation is brewing.....as the Gov subsidizes the economy.
We get stern talk from the Treasury over China to get off $$$ peg, this is LIP service, it would not accomplish much, shift would go to oTHER impoverished countries....Malaysia Viet Nam etc, or just make ALL our goods very expensive setting Inflation in this country on fire as prices rise......if costs cannot be passed thru, profits would PLUMMET.
MZM, AGGREGATE Money supply has leveled off. It gets harder as we along, to get a bang for the buck printed! As the BLACK HOLE of deflation sucks in these dollars.
While you may be able to afford a more expensive home because of rates, you STILL OWE MORE MONEY, and paying less towards or nothing to principle.
Energy costs, health care, tuition, many other expenses, incl State Property asessments MUCH HIGHER making it more difficult to pay off debt or the need for more credit.
SPECULATION in Real Estate has replaced the NAZ as everyone thinks that's the place to be....making prices rise even faster, more imbalanced.
GOV mistates the CPI data showing inflation is TAME. RISING cost of housing not even counted.
BIG Investment HOuses buying SPX futures at PIVOTAL moments of the stock market, this manipulation will not change the future, just delay it.
SO this is a market to trade if you are nimble, one to watch if you are not, IMHO.
Commodity prices have shown a slowing, Bond prices (lower yields) are showing a slowing.......as I think the general public is oblvious of the basic facts, the challenges and the potential danger which may lie somehwere dead ahead.
You can't avoid repeating history if you don;t KNOW what IT is.
Duratek
When you consider the market is lower than it was 5 years ago, even with a 2.5 yr cyclical bull, where the last 7 years the 3 month Treasury Bill outperformed market returns, I would say yes.
DOW selling for 18.5 X and SPX 19.5 X. Dividend yields near 2%. EVERY MAJOR BEAR MARKET HAS ENDED WITH STOCKS SELLING BELOW KNOWN VALUES, PE'S IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
We also know that we are witnessing the topping of the greatest credit expansion/ debt expansion in the history fo the economy.
Longest running bullsih % of over 50% bulls.
Lowest savings rate in history. Highest spending as % of household income. Highest level of total credit market debt as % of GDP. Highest level of PROGRAM TRADING.
8,000 plus Hedge Funds. $Trillions of derivitives to hedge. 45 year lows in interest rates achieved a Real Estate BOOM. BUBBLING in many States.
PAST TENSE we had Record Fiscal Stimulus in Tax cuts and rebates from the BUsh ADM.
We has record Cash Out REFI'S stimulate spending, the importance to COnsumer Spending is that it barely SLOWED during the OFFICIAL 2001 Recession, instead of healing, adding to savings from WHICH Investment could have been drawn adding to earnings from depreciation. of capital equipment.
Instead we saw a historic WEAKENING of our manufacturing Sector and a horrendous loss of jobs which to this day has not reversed. INSTEAD we saw money flow to Asian countries building them into MAnufacturing powerhouses.
I have read where the Banking, FInancial situation in China is at crisis levels, inflation is brewing.....as the Gov subsidizes the economy.
We get stern talk from the Treasury over China to get off $$$ peg, this is LIP service, it would not accomplish much, shift would go to oTHER impoverished countries....Malaysia Viet Nam etc, or just make ALL our goods very expensive setting Inflation in this country on fire as prices rise......if costs cannot be passed thru, profits would PLUMMET.
MZM, AGGREGATE Money supply has leveled off. It gets harder as we along, to get a bang for the buck printed! As the BLACK HOLE of deflation sucks in these dollars.
While you may be able to afford a more expensive home because of rates, you STILL OWE MORE MONEY, and paying less towards or nothing to principle.
Energy costs, health care, tuition, many other expenses, incl State Property asessments MUCH HIGHER making it more difficult to pay off debt or the need for more credit.
SPECULATION in Real Estate has replaced the NAZ as everyone thinks that's the place to be....making prices rise even faster, more imbalanced.
GOV mistates the CPI data showing inflation is TAME. RISING cost of housing not even counted.
BIG Investment HOuses buying SPX futures at PIVOTAL moments of the stock market, this manipulation will not change the future, just delay it.
SO this is a market to trade if you are nimble, one to watch if you are not, IMHO.
Commodity prices have shown a slowing, Bond prices (lower yields) are showing a slowing.......as I think the general public is oblvious of the basic facts, the challenges and the potential danger which may lie somehwere dead ahead.
You can't avoid repeating history if you don;t KNOW what IT is.
Duratek
Monday, May 23, 2005
BOND YIELDS
When does the STOCK MARKET pay attention to the BOND MARKET?
10 YR yields now down to 4.08% ! Gold , commodities and Bonds surely are not signalling INFLATION!
A strong economy and stockmarket should NOT have Bonds forcasting weakness, and a LOT of money has come out of HIGH RISK HIGH YIELD Corporate JUNK to treasuries.
D
10 YR yields now down to 4.08% ! Gold , commodities and Bonds surely are not signalling INFLATION!
A strong economy and stockmarket should NOT have Bonds forcasting weakness, and a LOT of money has come out of HIGH RISK HIGH YIELD Corporate JUNK to treasuries.
D
Sunday, May 22, 2005
Bert Dohmen
THE MESSAGE OF THE MARKETS
From Bert Dohmen (excerpt from website) April 2005
The following is from a STRATEGY ADVISORY to our subscribers, issued on April 14, 2005. Market action has confirmed the validity of this analysis. The remarks are as relevant today as they were at that time.
The major indices are breaking down, much as our indicators warned us over one month ago. Wall Street analysts are apparently puzzled, and continue to grind out their ruinous “buy” recommendations. In the meantime, our PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS subscribers are sitting safely on the sidelines, 100% in cash equivalents.
In our ACTION ALERTS one month ago we wrote: “It’s not the higher oil prices that are bothering the market. Consumers aren’t concerned, as is seen in the strong retail and housing sales, as well as restaurant results. The market may be looking at what I consider to be the most serious problem this year, namely the results of a credit squeeze in China. Investors will finally read that many of the beautiful skyscrapers over there are empty, that more than 50% of car loans are in default, that the banking system is insolvent, etc.”
Market commentators every day tell the investing public that the markets are concerned about inflation, higher interest rates, the trade deficit, current account deficit, and the budget deficit.
Believe me, that’s all irrelevant.
If the smart money were really serious concerned about inflation, the traditional inflation hedges, such as gold and silver, would be soaring. Real estate companies would be making new highs, and commodities would not be breaking down. Currently, commodity producers, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. have broken major support levels. The transportation indices have plunged severely, indicating that the economy is slowing sharply.
If the smart money were really fearing significantly higher interest rates, and I am referring to the long-term rates, those rates would not be declining. People who do not
look at charts don’t realize that the yields on 10-year and 30-year T-Bonds are now lower than in July and August of last year.
The triple-deficits have nothing to do with the markets. The biggest stock market crash in a century, namely the 2000-2002 NASDAQ crash in which over $9 trillion of wealth was wiped out, took place while these deficits were shrinking or in surplus.
That leaves us with two important explanations for the significant market decline this year:
A looming problem in the huge, world-wide derivative market, which could implode, and/or
The China boom turning to bust, which would take most of the world’s markets down with it.
Either of these is very serious by themselves. If these two negatives occur at the same time, which is a definite possibility, we're looking at an eventual crash sometime this year.
The vast majority of analysts you see in the media are not seriously considering these eventualities. But it’s a fact that the serious problems are always surprises. That’s why they result in crashes: because they are unexpected. If the majority knew it was coming, preparations could be made, and it would not occur.
The message of the markets: the big profits this year will be made by short selling. We have not taken positions in the bear funds lately because we thought the seasonal April rally would occur. But once again, just as in January, so far seasonal strength has been a “no-show,” which is a very negative indication by itself. If we get a late-April rally, it would give us a great short selling opportunity.
Greetings,
Bert Dohmen
From Bert Dohmen (excerpt from website) April 2005
The following is from a STRATEGY ADVISORY to our subscribers, issued on April 14, 2005. Market action has confirmed the validity of this analysis. The remarks are as relevant today as they were at that time.
The major indices are breaking down, much as our indicators warned us over one month ago. Wall Street analysts are apparently puzzled, and continue to grind out their ruinous “buy” recommendations. In the meantime, our PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS subscribers are sitting safely on the sidelines, 100% in cash equivalents.
In our ACTION ALERTS one month ago we wrote: “It’s not the higher oil prices that are bothering the market. Consumers aren’t concerned, as is seen in the strong retail and housing sales, as well as restaurant results. The market may be looking at what I consider to be the most serious problem this year, namely the results of a credit squeeze in China. Investors will finally read that many of the beautiful skyscrapers over there are empty, that more than 50% of car loans are in default, that the banking system is insolvent, etc.”
Market commentators every day tell the investing public that the markets are concerned about inflation, higher interest rates, the trade deficit, current account deficit, and the budget deficit.
Believe me, that’s all irrelevant.
If the smart money were really serious concerned about inflation, the traditional inflation hedges, such as gold and silver, would be soaring. Real estate companies would be making new highs, and commodities would not be breaking down. Currently, commodity producers, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. have broken major support levels. The transportation indices have plunged severely, indicating that the economy is slowing sharply.
If the smart money were really fearing significantly higher interest rates, and I am referring to the long-term rates, those rates would not be declining. People who do not
look at charts don’t realize that the yields on 10-year and 30-year T-Bonds are now lower than in July and August of last year.
The triple-deficits have nothing to do with the markets. The biggest stock market crash in a century, namely the 2000-2002 NASDAQ crash in which over $9 trillion of wealth was wiped out, took place while these deficits were shrinking or in surplus.
That leaves us with two important explanations for the significant market decline this year:
A looming problem in the huge, world-wide derivative market, which could implode, and/or
The China boom turning to bust, which would take most of the world’s markets down with it.
Either of these is very serious by themselves. If these two negatives occur at the same time, which is a definite possibility, we're looking at an eventual crash sometime this year.
The vast majority of analysts you see in the media are not seriously considering these eventualities. But it’s a fact that the serious problems are always surprises. That’s why they result in crashes: because they are unexpected. If the majority knew it was coming, preparations could be made, and it would not occur.
The message of the markets: the big profits this year will be made by short selling. We have not taken positions in the bear funds lately because we thought the seasonal April rally would occur. But once again, just as in January, so far seasonal strength has been a “no-show,” which is a very negative indication by itself. If we get a late-April rally, it would give us a great short selling opportunity.
Greetings,
Bert Dohmen
Saturday, May 21, 2005
Friday, May 20, 2005
SEPT 2000
ZEAL ON CPI DECEPTION that was THEN imagine NOW! with $50 oil! and housing THROUGH the roof NOT reflected in DATA!
WHat GOOD is even manipulated data if ONLY CORE matters to investors? TAKING out 2 main key components OIL and food! LOL ^%$$**
D
WHat GOOD is even manipulated data if ONLY CORE matters to investors? TAKING out 2 main key components OIL and food! LOL ^%$$**
D
RUSSIAN INFLATION
UP 40% And that's from an OIL producing nation! And perhaps from one who isn't use to hiding, manipulating distorting the data?
D
D
TRIPLE WITCH
Bears watching NOT confirming this move in market IMHO
VOLUME ANEMIC for an OPEX day! But doesn't mean rally is over, my gut feeling is volume is telling and momo is ebbing, easy money already made.
No NEWS today.....little stock movement.
D
VOLUME ANEMIC for an OPEX day! But doesn't mean rally is over, my gut feeling is volume is telling and momo is ebbing, easy money already made.
No NEWS today.....little stock movement.
D
FUEL CELL BREAKTHROUGH
UK firm claims breakthrough in fuel cell technology
By Stuart PensonThu May 19, 2:14 PM ET
A small British technology company on Thursday claimed to be on the verge of unlocking the vast potential of fuel cells as a commercially viable source of green energy.
Cambridge-based CMR Fuel Cells said it had made a breakthrough with a new design of fuel cell which is a tenth of the size of existing models and small enough to replace conventional batteries in laptop computers.
"We firmly believe CMR technology is the equivalent of the jump from transistors to integrated circuits," said John Halfpenny, the firm's chief executive.
Fuel cells have for years been touted as the next big green power source. They produce electricity via a chemical reaction and emit only tiny amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the main greenhouse gas blamed by many scientists for global warming.
Coal and gas-fired power stations produce far more CO2.
But high costs and doubts about widespread availability of fuel -- usually hydrogen -- have held back the technology's transition to the mainstream despite years of research by energy firms and the automotive industry.
CMR said the new design would run for four times longer than conventional batteries in a laptop or other devices like power tools.
"It's also instantly rechargable," said Michael Priestnall, chief technology officer at CMR. Priestnall and chief engineer Michael Evans came up with the design while working at Cambridge-based consultancy Generics Group.
Evans said the design, which would run initially on methanol, was based on new type of fuel stack which mixed air and fuel. Up to now fuel stacks have relied on complete separation of the two.
Halfpenny said CMR was in talks about possible demonstrations for the Defense Department.
CMR is backed by venture capitalists including Conduit Ventures, a specialist fund backed by Shell Hydrogen (SHEL.L), Johnson Matthey (JMAT.L), Mitsubishi (8058.T), Danfoss and Solvay
By Stuart PensonThu May 19, 2:14 PM ET
A small British technology company on Thursday claimed to be on the verge of unlocking the vast potential of fuel cells as a commercially viable source of green energy.
Cambridge-based CMR Fuel Cells said it had made a breakthrough with a new design of fuel cell which is a tenth of the size of existing models and small enough to replace conventional batteries in laptop computers.
"We firmly believe CMR technology is the equivalent of the jump from transistors to integrated circuits," said John Halfpenny, the firm's chief executive.
Fuel cells have for years been touted as the next big green power source. They produce electricity via a chemical reaction and emit only tiny amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the main greenhouse gas blamed by many scientists for global warming.
Coal and gas-fired power stations produce far more CO2.
But high costs and doubts about widespread availability of fuel -- usually hydrogen -- have held back the technology's transition to the mainstream despite years of research by energy firms and the automotive industry.
CMR said the new design would run for four times longer than conventional batteries in a laptop or other devices like power tools.
"It's also instantly rechargable," said Michael Priestnall, chief technology officer at CMR. Priestnall and chief engineer Michael Evans came up with the design while working at Cambridge-based consultancy Generics Group.
Evans said the design, which would run initially on methanol, was based on new type of fuel stack which mixed air and fuel. Up to now fuel stacks have relied on complete separation of the two.
Halfpenny said CMR was in talks about possible demonstrations for the Defense Department.
CMR is backed by venture capitalists including Conduit Ventures, a specialist fund backed by Shell Hydrogen (SHEL.L), Johnson Matthey (JMAT.L), Mitsubishi (8058.T), Danfoss and Solvay
Thursday, May 19, 2005
BS RALLY ON BS DATA! DESTINED To SLIP in OWN BS
BLS OWN MOUTH CPI info as you can see Owner's Equiv Rent !!?? is almost 1/3 of the fraudalent CPI.
As we ALL know housing is going THROUGH the ROOF yet last report shows a scant 0.1% increase in OER.
I haven't lost faith in the stock market to reflect the future, but in the short term, it CAN be manipulated. Was it MEANINGLESS that the indexes broke down several weeks ago? Below their 50 and 200 SMA's? MAYBE SO.....if that meant NOTHING their recent rise also does.
BLACK boxes like a set watch just wait for these to appear, the stock movements are exaggerated and manipulated, but eventually wat WILL be will be.
We have sector rotation again, and prices are rising because prices are rising because performance is chased.
SO with manipulation and bastradizing of any REAL DATA, which HEDONIC measures and seasonal adjustments and outright lies and misrepresentations.....any STRENGTH derived from such will be fleeting.
The buying of large blocks by the "houses" at KEY levels.........is not a myth.
ADditionally they don't even consider TAXES!!! in the OER computation.
Look how they ran after NFLX today and how it closed, some will never learn
ARGHHHH!
Last thought, is profits from housing speculation....coming into stock market? Could this fuel a final bull rush but at same time kill housing market?
D
As we ALL know housing is going THROUGH the ROOF yet last report shows a scant 0.1% increase in OER.
I haven't lost faith in the stock market to reflect the future, but in the short term, it CAN be manipulated. Was it MEANINGLESS that the indexes broke down several weeks ago? Below their 50 and 200 SMA's? MAYBE SO.....if that meant NOTHING their recent rise also does.
BLACK boxes like a set watch just wait for these to appear, the stock movements are exaggerated and manipulated, but eventually wat WILL be will be.
We have sector rotation again, and prices are rising because prices are rising because performance is chased.
SO with manipulation and bastradizing of any REAL DATA, which HEDONIC measures and seasonal adjustments and outright lies and misrepresentations.....any STRENGTH derived from such will be fleeting.
The buying of large blocks by the "houses" at KEY levels.........is not a myth.
ADditionally they don't even consider TAXES!!! in the OER computation.
Look how they ran after NFLX today and how it closed, some will never learn
ARGHHHH!
Last thought, is profits from housing speculation....coming into stock market? Could this fuel a final bull rush but at same time kill housing market?
D
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
CHina SHouts BAck
http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/18/news/international/china.reut/index.htm
SO if yesterday's RALLY was over STRONG buSH words over YUAN, then this?
D
SO if yesterday's RALLY was over STRONG buSH words over YUAN, then this?
D
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
TRADERS BOY TOY
tasr
It kills people, no it's safe...less filling.
20 EMA of NAZ up, maybe more upside, key resistance ahead.
D
It kills people, no it's safe...less filling.
20 EMA of NAZ up, maybe more upside, key resistance ahead.
D
IDIOTS AT WORK
OHHH CHINA is WARNED!
Let's see. China revalues its currency. Our economy runs on CHinese imports.
WE pay MORE for Chinese goods. WE reduce trade deficit. We REDUCE consumer spending. WE go into receesion, we have RAMPANT inflation. WE can't compete anyway.
We threaten Chinese with trade embargo. We destroy world economy. STOCK market collapses.
D
Let's see. China revalues its currency. Our economy runs on CHinese imports.
WE pay MORE for Chinese goods. WE reduce trade deficit. We REDUCE consumer spending. WE go into receesion, we have RAMPANT inflation. WE can't compete anyway.
We threaten Chinese with trade embargo. We destroy world economy. STOCK market collapses.
D
RIDDLE ME THIS!
BRIEFING.COM ECONOMIC DATA
Inflationary pressures creeping into the PPI. (notice bonds are doing NOTHING based on this )
Industrial production declines.
Factory capacity rates decline.
LET CNBC and Wall Street hype the economy. WAs 30% of jobs from manufacturing now only 11% !
We are not prepared for NEW ECONOMY, men less than woman as far as education, as men dominated manufacturing jobs.
BULK of earnings came from energy companies in SPX, now with falling OIL and I showed you XOM chart, I think expectations are TOO high for earnings going forward.
The market HOWEVER does NOT look backward, only forward and discounts the future.
Watch closely the action of commodities and bonds. and see also if 10K on the Dow gets challenged again, a FALL thru that level (why PPT is protecting it with manipualtion) should bring intensive selling.
As did WEAK WEAK volume yesterday, the rallies look contrived and shallow.
You with me?
Duratek
Inflationary pressures creeping into the PPI. (notice bonds are doing NOTHING based on this )
Industrial production declines.
Factory capacity rates decline.
LET CNBC and Wall Street hype the economy. WAs 30% of jobs from manufacturing now only 11% !
We are not prepared for NEW ECONOMY, men less than woman as far as education, as men dominated manufacturing jobs.
BULK of earnings came from energy companies in SPX, now with falling OIL and I showed you XOM chart, I think expectations are TOO high for earnings going forward.
The market HOWEVER does NOT look backward, only forward and discounts the future.
Watch closely the action of commodities and bonds. and see also if 10K on the Dow gets challenged again, a FALL thru that level (why PPT is protecting it with manipualtion) should bring intensive selling.
As did WEAK WEAK volume yesterday, the rallies look contrived and shallow.
You with me?
Duratek
Monday, May 16, 2005
FUNNY?
How a CONTRACTING NY STATE MANUF UNDEX reading of NEG 11 today and recently GREAT NEWS? of a falling TRADE deficit are taken by traders?
A HUGE decline in the trade deficit, did that NOT mean CONSUMERS were retrenching?
If ANY of this data was really GOOD news, WOULD interest rates have fallen? instead of going up?
D
A HUGE decline in the trade deficit, did that NOT mean CONSUMERS were retrenching?
If ANY of this data was really GOOD news, WOULD interest rates have fallen? instead of going up?
D
Comittment Of Traders
By Definition there are 3 classes of traders. Here's a free site shown COT for 10 yr notes
Commercials - Producers and end users of the commodity or futures market they participate in are referred to as commercials. This group is the reason the commodity and futures markets exist, to allow "commercials" an opportunity to defer or hedge the risk of doing business. (This smart money group will often get aggressively net long or short prior to major trends)
Large Speculators - Defined as those traders who hold a specified number of contracts or greater in a given market, but are not commercial traders. The CFTC sets the minimum number of contracts that can be held before the speculator is required to report that position. Any speculator participating in a market that is required to report to the CFTC is known as a non-commercial or large trader. (This group follows trends and usually mimics the markets price movement)
Small Speculators - Any market participant who is neither a commercial nor non-commercial is a small speculator. This group is not required to report to the CFTC but can determined by the contracts left over after the commercials and non-commercials have been accounted for. . (This over-leveraged group is usually wrong at major turning points)
**POINT taken? follow the SMART money....
D
Commercials - Producers and end users of the commodity or futures market they participate in are referred to as commercials. This group is the reason the commodity and futures markets exist, to allow "commercials" an opportunity to defer or hedge the risk of doing business. (This smart money group will often get aggressively net long or short prior to major trends)
Large Speculators - Defined as those traders who hold a specified number of contracts or greater in a given market, but are not commercial traders. The CFTC sets the minimum number of contracts that can be held before the speculator is required to report that position. Any speculator participating in a market that is required to report to the CFTC is known as a non-commercial or large trader. (This group follows trends and usually mimics the markets price movement)
Small Speculators - Any market participant who is neither a commercial nor non-commercial is a small speculator. This group is not required to report to the CFTC but can determined by the contracts left over after the commercials and non-commercials have been accounted for. . (This over-leveraged group is usually wrong at major turning points)
**POINT taken? follow the SMART money....
D
Using the 80 Day moving avg
SImon Says significant or coincidence? Bernie Schaeffer likes using the 80 day, an overlooked tool according to him.
Free 30 day trial at his site.
D
Free 30 day trial at his site.
D
From best of Bill Buckler
INSIDE THE UNITED STATES
OBLIVIOUS TO THE CLIMBING DEBTS
Nothing better describes the situation inside (and outside) the United States these days than the total nearly mindless attitude toward debt. Today, when debt is called "credit", it is as if it is not debt at all but simply another way to get or find more money to spend. Try as one might, look through all sectors of the US economy, and with few exceptions, that is the attitude in place. In one respect, doing such research is hair raising, but in any another respect, it makes the task simple in principle. The attitude is all pervasive, one can take any US economic sector as an example. In the US corporate sector, the engine room of the US economy, to take one example, debts are over $US 9 TRILLION, representing 84 percent of GDP.
Then keep in mind the US Treasury debt which is closing in on $US 8 TRILLION and all the State debt, the mortgage debts, and the private and personal debts. One is looking at a debt monster. It is right here where higher commercial bank interest rates are going to start hitting like torpedoes striking below the waterline. Debts, as a minimum, have to be serviced with regular payments of interest if nothing else. With US corporate debts over $US 9 TRILLION, either higher interest rates or lower earnings are going to kill a lot of US corporations. The entire situation is now fragile in the extreme.
Ó 2005 – The Privateer
http://www.the-privateer.com
capt@the-privateer.com
OBLIVIOUS TO THE CLIMBING DEBTS
Nothing better describes the situation inside (and outside) the United States these days than the total nearly mindless attitude toward debt. Today, when debt is called "credit", it is as if it is not debt at all but simply another way to get or find more money to spend. Try as one might, look through all sectors of the US economy, and with few exceptions, that is the attitude in place. In one respect, doing such research is hair raising, but in any another respect, it makes the task simple in principle. The attitude is all pervasive, one can take any US economic sector as an example. In the US corporate sector, the engine room of the US economy, to take one example, debts are over $US 9 TRILLION, representing 84 percent of GDP.
Then keep in mind the US Treasury debt which is closing in on $US 8 TRILLION and all the State debt, the mortgage debts, and the private and personal debts. One is looking at a debt monster. It is right here where higher commercial bank interest rates are going to start hitting like torpedoes striking below the waterline. Debts, as a minimum, have to be serviced with regular payments of interest if nothing else. With US corporate debts over $US 9 TRILLION, either higher interest rates or lower earnings are going to kill a lot of US corporations. The entire situation is now fragile in the extreme.
Ó 2005 – The Privateer
http://www.the-privateer.com
capt@the-privateer.com
SOUR DIP?
Market Pulse: Chip equipment orders fell 21% in Q1Tuesday May 10, 6:31 pm ET By Matt Andrejczak
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Worldwide chip equipment bookings in the first quarter fell 21% to $7.25 billion compared to the year-ago period, according to SEMI, an industry trade group that collects data from 150 companies. The figure is 12% below the total for the preceding quarter. Billings -- orders that have been shipped -- were $9.35 billion in the first quarter, up 2.3% from the year-ago period.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Worldwide chip equipment bookings in the first quarter fell 21% to $7.25 billion compared to the year-ago period, according to SEMI, an industry trade group that collects data from 150 companies. The figure is 12% below the total for the preceding quarter. Billings -- orders that have been shipped -- were $9.35 billion in the first quarter, up 2.3% from the year-ago period.
NOT SUPPORTING WORLD ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
Baltic Dry Update
This is OPEX week, and is generally a bullish week, as is happy Monday's.
Has a shift into tech by the hedgies already begun? will the 200 SMA hold back this rally?
LOW LOW VOLUME today, you like to see HIGH volume at critical junctures. UPS buyout of Overnight ignited the Dow.
D
This is OPEX week, and is generally a bullish week, as is happy Monday's.
Has a shift into tech by the hedgies already begun? will the 200 SMA hold back this rally?
LOW LOW VOLUME today, you like to see HIGH volume at critical junctures. UPS buyout of Overnight ignited the Dow.
D
Saturday, May 14, 2005
MARKET ON THE VERGE?
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf Here is a link to Richard Russell's website, for $250 a year is a BARGAIN IMHO, and he writes every day the market is open.
NEM Does this look like INFLATIOn?
Is housing warning us of a slowdown? Lower highs, repelled by 50 SMA
DOWNWARD DOW 50 SMA is about to cross down bearishly thru 200 SMA, and lower indicator MACD is about to go thru its 9 day (thin line) moving avg, bearish. Blue histograms ABOUT to cross down below ZERO LINE. ALL the indexes looking similar.
Bearish action on the UTES GAPPING down below a year long support trend line.
NAZ? PLEASE 50 SMA HALTED advance, 50 SMA has already pierced the 200 SMA which is flat and 50 SMA has downward trajectory.
VIX in a FIX the 50 SMA has jutted thru the 200 SMA and is staying above its 200 SMA....a RECENT development
NONE of this do we find in an ongoing BULL MKT IMHO....caution is word of the day
Duratek
NEM Does this look like INFLATIOn?
Is housing warning us of a slowdown? Lower highs, repelled by 50 SMA
DOWNWARD DOW 50 SMA is about to cross down bearishly thru 200 SMA, and lower indicator MACD is about to go thru its 9 day (thin line) moving avg, bearish. Blue histograms ABOUT to cross down below ZERO LINE. ALL the indexes looking similar.
Bearish action on the UTES GAPPING down below a year long support trend line.
NAZ? PLEASE 50 SMA HALTED advance, 50 SMA has already pierced the 200 SMA which is flat and 50 SMA has downward trajectory.
VIX in a FIX the 50 SMA has jutted thru the 200 SMA and is staying above its 200 SMA....a RECENT development
NONE of this do we find in an ongoing BULL MKT IMHO....caution is word of the day
Duratek
RIGHT SAID FED
ALL the major currencies are going to correct against the dollar because of our postion of rising rates and the rest of the world is on standby and below our rates.
And is another sign of DEFLATION VS INFLATION.
IMHO, that would mean the FED has failed in its attempts to INFLATE the debt away, instead we got heaps on top of heaps of it.
There will be a clamour for $$$ to pay off debts. GOLD is at same place it was almost 10 years ago, certainly, golds decscending tops are not screaming inflation, but the FED sees different.
The US Dollar has broken OUT of its downtrend line back from early 2001.
Is risk being avoided? JUNK BOND index has collapsed as Bonds gain strength.....the SPREAD widening.
NAZ coming up to its 200 SMA to test, the NAZ is out pacing the DOW and TRANS, but if weakness continues they will be dragged down with rest.
Hedge funds (large specualtors) have embraced this rally and turned quickly away from their short, these guys are usually on WRONG side of market.
EWT points out that 10,400 (old support) was near .382 FIB of decline, it turned back rally, is now resistance.
WE have divergence between DOW and NAZ, this should be cleared uo next week.
Is part of this ANOTHER ROUND of rotation< out of weaker groups into stronger ones? given HYPE over CSCO and DELL? IBM not joining party?
ALL this "GOOD NEWS", and the market is volatile and staring closer to 10K than recent 2005 highs.
Bond yield near 4% is telling me reflation efforts have stalled. a Flight to "quality"? away from JUNK to Treasuries.
A market controlled by the playa's, and make NO mistake about it, I smell a bear out there.
D
And is another sign of DEFLATION VS INFLATION.
IMHO, that would mean the FED has failed in its attempts to INFLATE the debt away, instead we got heaps on top of heaps of it.
There will be a clamour for $$$ to pay off debts. GOLD is at same place it was almost 10 years ago, certainly, golds decscending tops are not screaming inflation, but the FED sees different.
The US Dollar has broken OUT of its downtrend line back from early 2001.
Is risk being avoided? JUNK BOND index has collapsed as Bonds gain strength.....the SPREAD widening.
NAZ coming up to its 200 SMA to test, the NAZ is out pacing the DOW and TRANS, but if weakness continues they will be dragged down with rest.
Hedge funds (large specualtors) have embraced this rally and turned quickly away from their short, these guys are usually on WRONG side of market.
EWT points out that 10,400 (old support) was near .382 FIB of decline, it turned back rally, is now resistance.
WE have divergence between DOW and NAZ, this should be cleared uo next week.
Is part of this ANOTHER ROUND of rotation< out of weaker groups into stronger ones? given HYPE over CSCO and DELL? IBM not joining party?
ALL this "GOOD NEWS", and the market is volatile and staring closer to 10K than recent 2005 highs.
Bond yield near 4% is telling me reflation efforts have stalled. a Flight to "quality"? away from JUNK to Treasuries.
A market controlled by the playa's, and make NO mistake about it, I smell a bear out there.
D
Friday, May 13, 2005
BIG REVERSAL GOING ON! ALERT
WAs I the ONLY one screaming about the DELL HYPE today? However, the reversal has surprised even me.
With SO MANY SO SURE RATES were going higher, in the face of a determined FED to raise rates, LONG BONDS have not cooperated.
LONG BONDS DO NOT fall in yield if they see a strong economy, we have an EVER flattening yield curve, which senses WEAKNESS somewhere dead ahead! IMHO
Rates have fallen from 4.69%, TOO many were SO sure much higher, sentiment is SO powerful in helping determine future action.
Now, we wait until so many are sure rates will KEEP dropping.
COuld we see a 3% 10 yr?? WELL the uptrend in yields seems over
D
With SO MANY SO SURE RATES were going higher, in the face of a determined FED to raise rates, LONG BONDS have not cooperated.
LONG BONDS DO NOT fall in yield if they see a strong economy, we have an EVER flattening yield curve, which senses WEAKNESS somewhere dead ahead! IMHO
Rates have fallen from 4.69%, TOO many were SO sure much higher, sentiment is SO powerful in helping determine future action.
Now, we wait until so many are sure rates will KEEP dropping.
COuld we see a 3% 10 yr?? WELL the uptrend in yields seems over
D
Haven't seen the worst of it yet
Talking Heads
Once in a Lifetime (1984)Take Me To The River
I don't know why I love her like I do
All the changes you put me through
Take my money, my cigarettes
I haven't seen the worst of it yet
I wanna know that you'll tell meI love to stay
Take me to the river, drop me in the water
Take me to the river, dip me in the water
Washing me down, washing me down
I don't know why you treat me so bad
Think of all the things we could have had
Love is an ocean that I can't forget
My sweet sixteen I would never regret
I wanna know that you'll tell meI love to stay
Take me to the river, drop me in the water
Push me in the river, dip me in the water
Washing me down, washing me
Hug me, squeeze me, love me, tease me
Till I can't, till I can't, till I can't take no more of it
Take me to the water, drop me in the river
Push me in the water, drop me in the river
Washing me down, washing me down
I don't know why I love you like I do
All the troubles you put me through
Sixteen candles there on my wallAnd here am I the biggest fool of them all
I wanna know that you'll tell me
I love to stay
Take me to the river and drop me in the water
Dip me in the river, drop me in the water
Washing me down, washing me down.
Once in a Lifetime (1984)Take Me To The River
I don't know why I love her like I do
All the changes you put me through
Take my money, my cigarettes
I haven't seen the worst of it yet
I wanna know that you'll tell meI love to stay
Take me to the river, drop me in the water
Take me to the river, dip me in the water
Washing me down, washing me down
I don't know why you treat me so bad
Think of all the things we could have had
Love is an ocean that I can't forget
My sweet sixteen I would never regret
I wanna know that you'll tell meI love to stay
Take me to the river, drop me in the water
Push me in the river, dip me in the water
Washing me down, washing me
Hug me, squeeze me, love me, tease me
Till I can't, till I can't, till I can't take no more of it
Take me to the water, drop me in the river
Push me in the water, drop me in the river
Washing me down, washing me down
I don't know why I love you like I do
All the troubles you put me through
Sixteen candles there on my wallAnd here am I the biggest fool of them all
I wanna know that you'll tell me
I love to stay
Take me to the river and drop me in the water
Dip me in the river, drop me in the water
Washing me down, washing me down.
Home is where the HEART IS
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4238D21A%2D26E3%2D481A%2DB7AA%2D1AA9580B9FD9%7D
And the FINANCIAL stocks are one of the main reasons the SPX earnings have done so well.
SO, party on DELL numbers, a great company, but again, DELL is NOT the economy.
A strong economy I think doesn't have roaring bond market, usually they sell bonds to scoop up cheap stocks.....me think more distribution taking place.
D
And the FINANCIAL stocks are one of the main reasons the SPX earnings have done so well.
SO, party on DELL numbers, a great company, but again, DELL is NOT the economy.
A strong economy I think doesn't have roaring bond market, usually they sell bonds to scoop up cheap stocks.....me think more distribution taking place.
D
DELL NOT the economy
http://www.naftemporiki.gr/markets/quote.asp?id=.BADI Baltic Dry declining again
BON yields plummeting...REcession around corner?
I see DELL as a NON event, lemmings rushing in.
Aggregate Money supply lower with lower peak
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
BON yields plummeting...REcession around corner?
I see DELL as a NON event, lemmings rushing in.
Aggregate Money supply lower with lower peak
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
WHO is WATCHING HERE
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050513/earns_delphi.html?.v=4
DELL is NOT the world's economy.....the engine is sick
D
DELL is NOT the world's economy.....the engine is sick
D
Thursday, May 12, 2005
GLASS EYE
Consumer weak watch to see if declines past 1.19 past low.
STEEP DROP in OIL, RETAIL SALE STRONG....market declining.
D
STEEP DROP in OIL, RETAIL SALE STRONG....market declining.
D
Wednesday, May 11, 2005
THOSE STUPID HEADLINES THOSE DAMN LEMMINGS!
Oil saves the day CNN HEADLINES *(do you like my sense of humor?)
6:19p
Market manages modest gains after choppy morning as oil slumps, DC security threat is resolved.
OH MY....little Cesna 3 miles from white house.....RUN RUN for the hills...scramble the jets....sell your stocks...for g-ds sake HIDE DICK CHENNY!!
NO wait it turning turning....BUY BUY BUY.....plug those black boxes back in...wait wait.....oil is rising sell sell run for the hills.....Jackson's nose falls off in court sell sell..
No just a rumor...wait OIL is falling near $50 again...all is well BUY BUY call alan pump pump...
WAIT this just in
"White House wants $25 a barrel oil"http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/11/news/economy/whitehouse_oil.reut/index.htm
WHY DID they wait so long to ask for that?
DAMN! CERTAINLY do NOT PAS ANY bills requiring better gas mailage or conservation...we JUST need to freakin PUMP more!
LAME DUCK is the ONLY nice thing that comes to mind....limp is the other BEAR MKT is going to be back in viscious form before years over or early 2006....
NOT MANY WILL SEE IT COMING
6:19p
Market manages modest gains after choppy morning as oil slumps, DC security threat is resolved.
OH MY....little Cesna 3 miles from white house.....RUN RUN for the hills...scramble the jets....sell your stocks...for g-ds sake HIDE DICK CHENNY!!
NO wait it turning turning....BUY BUY BUY.....plug those black boxes back in...wait wait.....oil is rising sell sell run for the hills.....Jackson's nose falls off in court sell sell..
No just a rumor...wait OIL is falling near $50 again...all is well BUY BUY call alan pump pump...
WAIT this just in
"White House wants $25 a barrel oil"http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/11/news/economy/whitehouse_oil.reut/index.htm
WHY DID they wait so long to ask for that?
DAMN! CERTAINLY do NOT PAS ANY bills requiring better gas mailage or conservation...we JUST need to freakin PUMP more!
LAME DUCK is the ONLY nice thing that comes to mind....limp is the other BEAR MKT is going to be back in viscious form before years over or early 2006....
NOT MANY WILL SEE IT COMING
Duratek
DEFICIT FELL
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/budget.htm
Tax receipts up, interesting development.
D
Tax receipts up, interesting development.
D
Bonds revisited
TNX CHART
Bonds surprise me again, SO as long as 20 EMA is declining and price below, yields could go lower.
A FLIGHT to quality as Wall Street hypes economy and valuations?
D
Bonds surprise me again, SO as long as 20 EMA is declining and price below, yields could go lower.
A FLIGHT to quality as Wall Street hypes economy and valuations?
D
The BELL TOLLS for thee
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B754B2126%2D91D8%2D463B%2D8114%2DC811AF909EA3%7D
WHAT housing bubble?
Volatile day today huh? Market running on rumurs...and fumes.
D
WHAT housing bubble?
Volatile day today huh? Market running on rumurs...and fumes.
D
Schaeffer on CSCO
12:02 PM
Cisco Systems Reverses Course Mid-MorningTechnology titan Cisco Systems (CSCO: sentiment, chart, options) reported better-than-expected earnings last night after the market close, earning 23 cents per share versus the consensus estimate of 22 cents per share. What's more, CSCO reported quarterly revenues of $6.19 billion versus the consensus estimate of $6.15 billion. Adding to the positive news for the stock, Raymond James upgraded shares of CSCO from "market perform" to "strong buy" on the positive earnings surprise.
The stock opened modestly higher this morning, rallied through mid-morning and has since reversed course and was trading just a nickel above break-even at last check. One reason for the abrupt change in direction could be the lack of buying power, as measured by the abundance of optimism in CSCO's sentiment backdrop. Before this morning's upgrade, there were 21 "buy" ratings, nine "hold" ratings, and no "sell" ratings on CSCO. Short sellers have not made large wagers against CSCO either. Short interest declined by nearly 16 percent over the most recent reporting period and the short-interest ratio now stands at a sparse 0.87 days. The fact that the sentiment is so skewed to the optimistic side likely indicates most market players have already allocated their available investment capital to CSCO. Therefore, the most likely direction for the shares in the future is lower, as some investors liquidate their positions and there are not many buyers to step in and purchase the shares.
-Posted by Kristin DePlatchett
Cisco Systems Reverses Course Mid-MorningTechnology titan Cisco Systems (CSCO: sentiment, chart, options) reported better-than-expected earnings last night after the market close, earning 23 cents per share versus the consensus estimate of 22 cents per share. What's more, CSCO reported quarterly revenues of $6.19 billion versus the consensus estimate of $6.15 billion. Adding to the positive news for the stock, Raymond James upgraded shares of CSCO from "market perform" to "strong buy" on the positive earnings surprise.
The stock opened modestly higher this morning, rallied through mid-morning and has since reversed course and was trading just a nickel above break-even at last check. One reason for the abrupt change in direction could be the lack of buying power, as measured by the abundance of optimism in CSCO's sentiment backdrop. Before this morning's upgrade, there were 21 "buy" ratings, nine "hold" ratings, and no "sell" ratings on CSCO. Short sellers have not made large wagers against CSCO either. Short interest declined by nearly 16 percent over the most recent reporting period and the short-interest ratio now stands at a sparse 0.87 days. The fact that the sentiment is so skewed to the optimistic side likely indicates most market players have already allocated their available investment capital to CSCO. Therefore, the most likely direction for the shares in the future is lower, as some investors liquidate their positions and there are not many buyers to step in and purchase the shares.
-Posted by Kristin DePlatchett
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Richebacher Brief May 9th
BEST OF KURT RICHEBACHER
May 9, 2005
It can no longer be doubted that the world economy is heading into a new downturn following a recovery that has been unusually short and weak among the industrial countries. The loss of momentum during the second half of last year was especially pronounced in Japan and several Far Eastern countries. In Europe, the major eurozone economies have been making headlines for some time with very unpleasant growth and employment numbers.
There seemed to be two great exceptions to this unfolding general economic slowdown: the United States and China. That, at least, has been the overwhelming perception. A strengthening dollar largely reflected the consensus view that the growth spread between the United States and the eurozone would considerably widen again, as the U.S. economy maintained its strong growth.
At a conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on April 14, Fed Governor Donald L. Kohn presented a cheerful picture of the U.S. economy, starting his speech: "The economy has been performing well of late. Economic activity has shown a good bit of forward momentum as businesses have stepped up their purchases of capital equipment and households have continued to increase their spending on consumer goods and services and on houses."
Further fuel for the new dollar bullishness arose from the expectation that gradually accelerating inflation would induce the Fed to step up its rate hikes further. In its earlier comments, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee has done its best to confirm these high-riding expectations about the economy.
As we have explained in detail many times, we radically disagree with this general unconcern about the U.S. economy. Its stellar aggregate growth rates, particularly since 2000, have masked a dramatic deterioration in the four key fundamental determinants of long-term economic growth: national and personal savings, productive capital investment, profits and the current account of the balance of payments. All four are in shambles.
In essence, recessions are the phase in the business cycle in which consumers and businesses unwind the borrowing and spending excesses of the prior boom. In the U.S. case, the ugly reality is that the excesses and imbalances of the boom years in the late 1990s have grown in the past few years to extremes unprecedented in history.
The big question now is whether the rosy assessment of the U.S. economy is right or wrong. In our view, it is dead wrong, for two main reasons: First, contrary to perception, the flow of economic data since the beginning of the year suggests the exact opposite; and second, and more important, the U.S. economy’s recovery from its recession in 2001 has a precarious foundation in the unsustainable housing bubble and exploding consumer debts, while employment and income growth are calamitously lagging.
While scrutinizing the economic data, we first noted a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. Inflation adjusted, it declined slightly in January, by 0.1%. An increase of 0.3% followed in February. Meanwhile, sluggish retail trade figures for March suggest little more than stagnation. With these weak numbers before our eyes, we have been following the public discussion and the Fed’s statements about the strong economy with amazement.
May 9, 2005
It can no longer be doubted that the world economy is heading into a new downturn following a recovery that has been unusually short and weak among the industrial countries. The loss of momentum during the second half of last year was especially pronounced in Japan and several Far Eastern countries. In Europe, the major eurozone economies have been making headlines for some time with very unpleasant growth and employment numbers.
There seemed to be two great exceptions to this unfolding general economic slowdown: the United States and China. That, at least, has been the overwhelming perception. A strengthening dollar largely reflected the consensus view that the growth spread between the United States and the eurozone would considerably widen again, as the U.S. economy maintained its strong growth.
At a conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on April 14, Fed Governor Donald L. Kohn presented a cheerful picture of the U.S. economy, starting his speech: "The economy has been performing well of late. Economic activity has shown a good bit of forward momentum as businesses have stepped up their purchases of capital equipment and households have continued to increase their spending on consumer goods and services and on houses."
Further fuel for the new dollar bullishness arose from the expectation that gradually accelerating inflation would induce the Fed to step up its rate hikes further. In its earlier comments, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee has done its best to confirm these high-riding expectations about the economy.
As we have explained in detail many times, we radically disagree with this general unconcern about the U.S. economy. Its stellar aggregate growth rates, particularly since 2000, have masked a dramatic deterioration in the four key fundamental determinants of long-term economic growth: national and personal savings, productive capital investment, profits and the current account of the balance of payments. All four are in shambles.
In essence, recessions are the phase in the business cycle in which consumers and businesses unwind the borrowing and spending excesses of the prior boom. In the U.S. case, the ugly reality is that the excesses and imbalances of the boom years in the late 1990s have grown in the past few years to extremes unprecedented in history.
The big question now is whether the rosy assessment of the U.S. economy is right or wrong. In our view, it is dead wrong, for two main reasons: First, contrary to perception, the flow of economic data since the beginning of the year suggests the exact opposite; and second, and more important, the U.S. economy’s recovery from its recession in 2001 has a precarious foundation in the unsustainable housing bubble and exploding consumer debts, while employment and income growth are calamitously lagging.
While scrutinizing the economic data, we first noted a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. Inflation adjusted, it declined slightly in January, by 0.1%. An increase of 0.3% followed in February. Meanwhile, sluggish retail trade figures for March suggest little more than stagnation. With these weak numbers before our eyes, we have been following the public discussion and the Fed’s statements about the strong economy with amazement.
New LOOK
I went back to this format to repair the BLEEDING I was getting, I couldn't repair problem.
D
D
SLICK EXCUSE
OIL is again being used as the reason du jour for a weak market...balderdash....we have had HIGH oil for months now it is INGRAINED in market....they just NEED a catchy phrase to explain the day.
MAY dept stores sales and earnings plummet....but housing stays hot?
HOW MUCH have we BORROWED from FUTURE DEMAND?
With NO SAVINGS we lack ability to invest in our own enconomy.....using the worlds savings to consume instead we have put ourselves behind the EIGHT BALL.
There is a limit to the crdit expansion, there is a limit to every cycle.
Now , that doesn't mean the world implodes, but there will be challenges ahead,and as always there will be winners and there will be losers.
MAY dept stores sales and earnings plummet....but housing stays hot?
HOW MUCH have we BORROWED from FUTURE DEMAND?
With NO SAVINGS we lack ability to invest in our own enconomy.....using the worlds savings to consume instead we have put ourselves behind the EIGHT BALL.
There is a limit to the crdit expansion, there is a limit to every cycle.
Now , that doesn't mean the world implodes, but there will be challenges ahead,and as always there will be winners and there will be losers.
Monday, May 09, 2005
It's DIFFERENT THIS TIME VXO REDUX
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vxo,uu[w,a]wallyiay[pb50!b10!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G
It has been OVER 2 years since the 50 crossed up thru the 200 SMA of the VIX, that was increased volatility seen as markets were getting washed out for a bottom
It spiked up once in 1998 (crisis) and then several times leading to mkt top in 1999- 2000.
In conclusion, even during GREATEST bull mkt we never saw a period where the volatility stayed so SUBDUED below the moving averages, in contrast, they spent MOST of their ABOVE.
Further leading me to see this rally a cyclical in nature in process of topping.
It has been OVER 2 years since the 50 crossed up thru the 200 SMA of the VIX, that was increased volatility seen as markets were getting washed out for a bottom
It spiked up once in 1998 (crisis) and then several times leading to mkt top in 1999- 2000.
In conclusion, even during GREATEST bull mkt we never saw a period where the volatility stayed so SUBDUED below the moving averages, in contrast, they spent MOST of their ABOVE.
Further leading me to see this rally a cyclical in nature in process of topping.
WMT
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wmt,uu[w,a]daclyiay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lb14]&pref=G
WILL it FAIL near the 50 SMA?
D
WILL it FAIL near the 50 SMA?
D
Sunday, May 08, 2005
TECH SAVIOR?
http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/05/technology/techinvestor/lamonica/index.htm
If other high profile tech bastions have not been able to GEAR the NAZ up, NOW,late in this bull cycle ALL eyes, the fate of techland rests with 2 compnaies?
If other high profile tech bastions have not been able to GEAR the NAZ up, NOW,late in this bull cycle ALL eyes, the fate of techland rests with 2 compnaies?
Saturday, May 07, 2005
Friday, May 06, 2005
The ART of BS
Stocks Are Mixed on Employment ReportFri 1:18PM ET - APWall Street surrendered its early gains Friday, leaving stocks mixed as investors worried that a surprisingly strong employment report, while good for the economy, could result in increased consumer demand and spark inflation.
*When "good" news is bad......stocks are suspect. GM and Ford downgraded to JUNK status......when you look at the stocks of the major companies don't you wonder why they aren't hitting new highs.
D
*When "good" news is bad......stocks are suspect. GM and Ford downgraded to JUNK status......when you look at the stocks of the major companies don't you wonder why they aren't hitting new highs.
D
247,000 jobs The MIRACLE of BS
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm 257,000 jobs added which may or may NOT be real. How can anyone tell when these figures cannot be verified. Help wanted index fell 2 points last reading.April is statistically the highest month for job additions.I suppose the markets reaction will be all that matters, incl bond market.
ANything les than a full tilt giddyup a failure
D
ANything les than a full tilt giddyup a failure
D
Thursday, May 05, 2005
JOB SIDS?
FRI we get employment data, I am expecting a LARGE number, because from my research, the net birth death model adds the most jobs in this period.
Knowing that, any WEAK number in reality would be even weaker. And you wonder WHY isn;t the data just reported as it is?
There is a lot going for the bulls, for now I think the rally could continue, phase 2 of the bear market isn't in play until 10K falls at the least.
I do NOT forsee new highs in 2005, large cap and defensive issues could fair much better here. Rates are lower than this time LAST year, and the FED will continue to raise.
D
Knowing that, any WEAK number in reality would be even weaker. And you wonder WHY isn;t the data just reported as it is?
There is a lot going for the bulls, for now I think the rally could continue, phase 2 of the bear market isn't in play until 10K falls at the least.
I do NOT forsee new highs in 2005, large cap and defensive issues could fair much better here. Rates are lower than this time LAST year, and the FED will continue to raise.
D
DEBT BOMB
Greenspan warns on FRE and FNM again
NDX right to underside resistance. DOW broken thru....could the NDX not confirm this move? I am reluctant to say so because of volume and breadth of the move.
We might be looking into summer for a final top....wouldn't surprise me.
Defensive stocks should outperform, but a traders market it is.IMHO
D
NDX right to underside resistance. DOW broken thru....could the NDX not confirm this move? I am reluctant to say so because of volume and breadth of the move.
We might be looking into summer for a final top....wouldn't surprise me.
Defensive stocks should outperform, but a traders market it is.IMHO
D
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
ISM
April non-manufacturing ISM index 61.7 (-1.4 pts).
Key Factors
Index is volatile and independent of its components. Can cause confusion in interpretation.
Modest decline still leaves index in the 60s -- strong level with momentum.
New orders fell off to 58.8 -- weakest since June 2003. Demand provides the forward read on economy.
Employment fell off to 53.3 after reaching a record (8 yr) high -- 59.6 --in Feb. Non-mfg employment provides all the nonfarm payroll growth.
Key Factors
Index is volatile and independent of its components. Can cause confusion in interpretation.
Modest decline still leaves index in the 60s -- strong level with momentum.
New orders fell off to 58.8 -- weakest since June 2003. Demand provides the forward read on economy.
Employment fell off to 53.3 after reaching a record (8 yr) high -- 59.6 --in Feb. Non-mfg employment provides all the nonfarm payroll growth.
RIGHT Said FED
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw&aid=1664&time=pm
Nothing up my sleeve, presto chango......do as I say not as I double speak
Nothing up my sleeve, presto chango......do as I say not as I double speak
SHOW ME SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CRB,uu[w,a]dallyiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9]&pref=G STILL in uptrend, but recent weakness might hold at 200 SMA, a break here has significance to greater economy.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dallyiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9]&pref=G Same here with OIL, recent weakening might get support at 200 SMA, but is the GLOBAL REFLATIONARY EFFORT now cooling off?
As the FED continues to RAISE RATES in the face of a slowing economy. MUCH of the SPX profits have come from ENERGY and FINANCIALS.
Just a correction in XOM? and in JPM?
And HOW is the CONSUMER holding up, especially those on hourly pay? WMT chart
FLAT TREASURY CURVE usually spells out Recession ahead. FED FUNDS 3% 10 YR 4.19% !
And the FED is daft to explain why? REFLATION HAS TOPPED! IMHO
D
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dallyiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9]&pref=G Same here with OIL, recent weakening might get support at 200 SMA, but is the GLOBAL REFLATIONARY EFFORT now cooling off?
As the FED continues to RAISE RATES in the face of a slowing economy. MUCH of the SPX profits have come from ENERGY and FINANCIALS.
Just a correction in XOM? and in JPM?
And HOW is the CONSUMER holding up, especially those on hourly pay? WMT chart
FLAT TREASURY CURVE usually spells out Recession ahead. FED FUNDS 3% 10 YR 4.19% !
And the FED is daft to explain why? REFLATION HAS TOPPED! IMHO
D
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
FED SPEAK
...."As tends to be the case, the market was extremely volatile after the Fed announcement, see-sawing back and forth across the unchanged line all afternoon.
But stocks and bonds both rallied in the last five minutes of the session, amid reports that a key sentence had accidently been deleted from the statement.
The sentence, "longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained," did not drastically change the basic message -- that rates will keep rising, that inflation pressures are growing and that the recent slowdown in the economy is not going to change the pace of rate hikes."
http://www.stockmarketplanet.com//directory/Stock-Market-Crash-Chart.html COOL SITE
But stocks and bonds both rallied in the last five minutes of the session, amid reports that a key sentence had accidently been deleted from the statement.
The sentence, "longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained," did not drastically change the basic message -- that rates will keep rising, that inflation pressures are growing and that the recent slowdown in the economy is not going to change the pace of rate hikes."
http://www.stockmarketplanet.com//directory/Stock-Market-Crash-Chart.html COOL SITE
DEFLATIOn IN THE CARDS?
May 04, 2005
Get Ready for Deflation
By Steve Moyer
"If Americans ever allow banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." ~ Thomas Jefferson
I know. I know. Home prices are skyrocketing. Gas costs $2.79 a gallon. Health care costs are getting out of hand. College tuition is rising to infinity...and beyond! Even interest rates are trying to edge up. According to Elliott Wave International, Proquest's database revealed that the six leading U.S. metropolitan newspapers featured 139 articles about inflation during March; just two having anything to do with deflation. Concerns about deflation - somewhat evident in the media in mid-2003 - have pretty much gone away, wouldn't you agree?
True, deflation is not creating headlines right now but that monster is quietly lurking in the background as existing pockets of inflation ironically add fuel to the deflationary fire. There is really no way around it, money supply pumping or no money supply pumping. Safehaven readers should take heed and, in some cases, take action - the relentless drag of deflation is coming soon to a theater near you. I hope you'll ready yourself for it.
Understand, deflation does not just mean "falling prices." Automobile, computer and home electronics price-cutting is symptomatic of early deflationary pressure, but in the context of this thesis, I am referring to the coming Big Kahuna - a contraction in credit that, once its psychology takes hold, will change the rules of the asset game for at least a decade.
History has shown that post-bubble economies face overwhelming deflationary pressure as it is, but the Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve's "Let's Get This Party Re-Started By Throwing Gun Powder, Kerosene and Nitroglycerin On The Post Mania Fire" approach to monetary policy all but assured it.
When the tech bubble initially burst, the loss of capital, U.S. jobs and personal income created an immediate demand for cheaper goods, and in very short order the manufacturing sector of our economy moved lock, stock and barrel to China, which was better set up to facilitate that type of demand. American corporations, suddenly in full cost-cutting mode, quickly bought into the new paradigm and the U.S. lost more than 2,000,000 manufacturing jobs by the end of 2002.
The Fed, in an all-out attempt to soften a post-bubble free-fall (and blithely ignoring everything modern financial history had taught them), aggressively lowered interest rates (to 40 year lows), which essentially encouraged Americans to incur debt in order to spend money as a way to give the economy a badly needed boost. We needed a shot in the arm, and given the stock market's free-fall and what can only be described as a preposterously low (just above 0%) national savings rate and miserable job and income numbers, Greenspan & Co. decided there was only one avenue left to travel. The Fed lowered interest rates (to a Federal Funds rate of 1%), furiously pumped the money supply and wittingly enticed people to use their homes as ATM's in a band-aid style, stunningly misguided attempt to get us over the post-bubble economic hump. "Reflation," the experts called it.
Whereupon, intoxicated by low interest rates, Americans went on a borrowing and spending binge the likes of which this planet has never seen.
Perhaps you've grown accustomed to the dozen or so credit card solicitations in your mailbox each week ("2.9% APR for the first 6 months!!"), or one year, no-payments-no- interest at Circuit City (and The Good Guys and Home Depot and Best Buy and Orchard Supply Hardware and Sears and pretty much every other big box retailer in town), or no fee home equity loans up to 100% equity on your house. Perhaps you've purchased a car with zero down and 1.9% GMAC financing, or better still, 0% financing for five years. Consumer credit has become the name of the economic game. So be sure to sit down when I tell you that revolving credit card debt in the United States has increased exactly 58,868% since 1968 (that's right, not 580%, not 5,800%, but 58,868%. Whoa, momma!).
Esteemed market guru Robert Prechter, Jr. writes, "Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which is why they lend freely to weak borrowers. Few borrowers expect their fortunes to change, which is why they borrow freely. Deflation involves a substantial amount of involuntary debt liquidation because almost no one expects deflation before it starts."
The problem is, folks used the equity in their homes to back it all up. Refi became the name of the game. Up to your eyeballs in debt? Consolidate it into your home loan! Need cash? Refi, baby! Looking to buy a house? "Hey, buddy, how about a quick 100% (or 110% or 120%) of value loan!" Mailers offering "$1,000,000 loans for $3300 a month, EZ qualifying!" flood my office desk. "100% CASH OUT REFIS!" scream others. Go ahead and read that Prechter quote one more time. Enticingly low interest rates allowed folks to rationalize an entire pot full of financial decisions.
So what if everyone borrows their way to "prosperity?" Is there a problem, officer? Unfortunately, history says yes - credit bubbles don't have happy endings. Eventually, folks decide they have borrowed enough and they cut back. The credit-driven economy falls of its own weight. Even low interest rates no longer entice people to borrow. The short-term fix ends up adding to the post-bubble, long-term problem, as the increasing burden leads to a braking economy, a credit contraction, falling asset values and not enough liquidity left in the marketplace to prop everything back up. The result is a full-blown liquidity crisis, affecting all asset values - stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, collectibles - at least for a time.
"The psychological aspect of deflation...cannot be overstated," Prechter continues. "When the social mood trend changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending. As debtors and potential debtors become more conservative, they borrow less or not at all. As producers become more conservative, they reduce expansion plans. As consumers become more conservative, they save more and spend less. These behaviors reduce the "velocity" of money, i.e., the speed with which it circulates to make purchases, thus putting downside pressure on prices. These forces reverse the former trend."
Market technician Phillip Erlanger refers to the current phenomenon as "inflation in all the wrong places and deflation in all the wrong places." Yes, there are pockets of inflation evident within the global economic framework but those will prove to be gnats on the back of the slow-moving deflationary elephant. Mostly, those rising costs put the squeeze on producers, who lack the pricing power necessary to pass those cost increases along (go ahead and ask now just-above-junk-bond rated General Motors about that). In fact, while rising crude oil and fuel prices seem to skew the numbers towards inflation now, the squeeze it imposes upon consumers and others will actually be deflationary, as people curtail purchases and start looking for ways to dig their way out of debt (the good news is, deflationary history suggests that oil and gas prices will fall, as well).
Forget the mainstream financial media; the reversal has begun. The again-declining stock market - particularly at this point in the post-bubble wave pattern - is a telling and leading indicator, as is the drop in the money supply and in the velocity of money. Commodity prices are falling. The "flattening" of the bond yield curve (short term interest rates rise; longer term rates don't), a precursor to economic recession, looms large. And given the fact that Americans have spent the last three years using the equity in their homes to "buy stuff," there is really no way around it at this point. Consumers are quietly putting their clothes back on after their three year borrowing/spending orgy. The irresponsible, Fed-encouraged post-bubble borrow-fest is winding down and there simply is not enough savings nor fundamental (read: manufacturing) strength in the U.S. economy to support any investment market - at least for a while. Up to their eyeballs in debt, the rules of the consumer game are about to change and debt reduction is sure to be the coming rage. Deflation is upon us.
Because the credit contraction will be taking place in a post-bubble framework, the result will be a slow, grinding, painful decade-long decline for most, if not all asset classes. As the money supply necessarily contracts (and without a national savings rate to back things up), today's asset values will become downright nostalgic.
Most significantly, when the post-bubble shakeout is winding down, the vast majority of Americans will be unable to play the investment game, and cash will be king.
Those who prepared themselves by holding cash will be able to cherry-pick assets in many cases for literally pennies on the dollar. I sincerely hope you'll be one of them.
Steve Moyer,Ponder-This.net
Get Ready for Deflation
By Steve Moyer
"If Americans ever allow banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." ~ Thomas Jefferson
I know. I know. Home prices are skyrocketing. Gas costs $2.79 a gallon. Health care costs are getting out of hand. College tuition is rising to infinity...and beyond! Even interest rates are trying to edge up. According to Elliott Wave International, Proquest's database revealed that the six leading U.S. metropolitan newspapers featured 139 articles about inflation during March; just two having anything to do with deflation. Concerns about deflation - somewhat evident in the media in mid-2003 - have pretty much gone away, wouldn't you agree?
True, deflation is not creating headlines right now but that monster is quietly lurking in the background as existing pockets of inflation ironically add fuel to the deflationary fire. There is really no way around it, money supply pumping or no money supply pumping. Safehaven readers should take heed and, in some cases, take action - the relentless drag of deflation is coming soon to a theater near you. I hope you'll ready yourself for it.
Understand, deflation does not just mean "falling prices." Automobile, computer and home electronics price-cutting is symptomatic of early deflationary pressure, but in the context of this thesis, I am referring to the coming Big Kahuna - a contraction in credit that, once its psychology takes hold, will change the rules of the asset game for at least a decade.
History has shown that post-bubble economies face overwhelming deflationary pressure as it is, but the Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve's "Let's Get This Party Re-Started By Throwing Gun Powder, Kerosene and Nitroglycerin On The Post Mania Fire" approach to monetary policy all but assured it.
When the tech bubble initially burst, the loss of capital, U.S. jobs and personal income created an immediate demand for cheaper goods, and in very short order the manufacturing sector of our economy moved lock, stock and barrel to China, which was better set up to facilitate that type of demand. American corporations, suddenly in full cost-cutting mode, quickly bought into the new paradigm and the U.S. lost more than 2,000,000 manufacturing jobs by the end of 2002.
The Fed, in an all-out attempt to soften a post-bubble free-fall (and blithely ignoring everything modern financial history had taught them), aggressively lowered interest rates (to 40 year lows), which essentially encouraged Americans to incur debt in order to spend money as a way to give the economy a badly needed boost. We needed a shot in the arm, and given the stock market's free-fall and what can only be described as a preposterously low (just above 0%) national savings rate and miserable job and income numbers, Greenspan & Co. decided there was only one avenue left to travel. The Fed lowered interest rates (to a Federal Funds rate of 1%), furiously pumped the money supply and wittingly enticed people to use their homes as ATM's in a band-aid style, stunningly misguided attempt to get us over the post-bubble economic hump. "Reflation," the experts called it.
Whereupon, intoxicated by low interest rates, Americans went on a borrowing and spending binge the likes of which this planet has never seen.
Perhaps you've grown accustomed to the dozen or so credit card solicitations in your mailbox each week ("2.9% APR for the first 6 months!!"), or one year, no-payments-no- interest at Circuit City (and The Good Guys and Home Depot and Best Buy and Orchard Supply Hardware and Sears and pretty much every other big box retailer in town), or no fee home equity loans up to 100% equity on your house. Perhaps you've purchased a car with zero down and 1.9% GMAC financing, or better still, 0% financing for five years. Consumer credit has become the name of the economic game. So be sure to sit down when I tell you that revolving credit card debt in the United States has increased exactly 58,868% since 1968 (that's right, not 580%, not 5,800%, but 58,868%. Whoa, momma!).
Esteemed market guru Robert Prechter, Jr. writes, "Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which is why they lend freely to weak borrowers. Few borrowers expect their fortunes to change, which is why they borrow freely. Deflation involves a substantial amount of involuntary debt liquidation because almost no one expects deflation before it starts."
The problem is, folks used the equity in their homes to back it all up. Refi became the name of the game. Up to your eyeballs in debt? Consolidate it into your home loan! Need cash? Refi, baby! Looking to buy a house? "Hey, buddy, how about a quick 100% (or 110% or 120%) of value loan!" Mailers offering "$1,000,000 loans for $3300 a month, EZ qualifying!" flood my office desk. "100% CASH OUT REFIS!" scream others. Go ahead and read that Prechter quote one more time. Enticingly low interest rates allowed folks to rationalize an entire pot full of financial decisions.
So what if everyone borrows their way to "prosperity?" Is there a problem, officer? Unfortunately, history says yes - credit bubbles don't have happy endings. Eventually, folks decide they have borrowed enough and they cut back. The credit-driven economy falls of its own weight. Even low interest rates no longer entice people to borrow. The short-term fix ends up adding to the post-bubble, long-term problem, as the increasing burden leads to a braking economy, a credit contraction, falling asset values and not enough liquidity left in the marketplace to prop everything back up. The result is a full-blown liquidity crisis, affecting all asset values - stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, collectibles - at least for a time.
"The psychological aspect of deflation...cannot be overstated," Prechter continues. "When the social mood trend changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending. As debtors and potential debtors become more conservative, they borrow less or not at all. As producers become more conservative, they reduce expansion plans. As consumers become more conservative, they save more and spend less. These behaviors reduce the "velocity" of money, i.e., the speed with which it circulates to make purchases, thus putting downside pressure on prices. These forces reverse the former trend."
Market technician Phillip Erlanger refers to the current phenomenon as "inflation in all the wrong places and deflation in all the wrong places." Yes, there are pockets of inflation evident within the global economic framework but those will prove to be gnats on the back of the slow-moving deflationary elephant. Mostly, those rising costs put the squeeze on producers, who lack the pricing power necessary to pass those cost increases along (go ahead and ask now just-above-junk-bond rated General Motors about that). In fact, while rising crude oil and fuel prices seem to skew the numbers towards inflation now, the squeeze it imposes upon consumers and others will actually be deflationary, as people curtail purchases and start looking for ways to dig their way out of debt (the good news is, deflationary history suggests that oil and gas prices will fall, as well).
Forget the mainstream financial media; the reversal has begun. The again-declining stock market - particularly at this point in the post-bubble wave pattern - is a telling and leading indicator, as is the drop in the money supply and in the velocity of money. Commodity prices are falling. The "flattening" of the bond yield curve (short term interest rates rise; longer term rates don't), a precursor to economic recession, looms large. And given the fact that Americans have spent the last three years using the equity in their homes to "buy stuff," there is really no way around it at this point. Consumers are quietly putting their clothes back on after their three year borrowing/spending orgy. The irresponsible, Fed-encouraged post-bubble borrow-fest is winding down and there simply is not enough savings nor fundamental (read: manufacturing) strength in the U.S. economy to support any investment market - at least for a while. Up to their eyeballs in debt, the rules of the consumer game are about to change and debt reduction is sure to be the coming rage. Deflation is upon us.
Because the credit contraction will be taking place in a post-bubble framework, the result will be a slow, grinding, painful decade-long decline for most, if not all asset classes. As the money supply necessarily contracts (and without a national savings rate to back things up), today's asset values will become downright nostalgic.
Most significantly, when the post-bubble shakeout is winding down, the vast majority of Americans will be unable to play the investment game, and cash will be king.
Those who prepared themselves by holding cash will be able to cherry-pick assets in many cases for literally pennies on the dollar. I sincerely hope you'll be one of them.
Steve Moyer,Ponder-This.net
Monday, May 02, 2005
NET BIRTH MAGIC
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
April of 2004 added 225,000 jobs, the MOST that year. 10 yr 4.19% !!! turned right at the .786 FIB retrace.
D
April of 2004 added 225,000 jobs, the MOST that year. 10 yr 4.19% !!! turned right at the .786 FIB retrace.
D
FED ACTION MARKET REACTION?
Market leading up to FED meeting has a nack of reversing AFTER the announcement, so my guess is the market will be up slightly to tread water ahead of that.
And maybe ahead of labor report this FRI we might just move net sideways. I am going to dig up what the AVG NET BIRH DEATH MOdel migth be adding to the number
And maybe ahead of labor report this FRI we might just move net sideways. I am going to dig up what the AVG NET BIRH DEATH MOdel migth be adding to the number
DIVIDENDS DON'T LIE
http://safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=2998&pv=1
6 to 7% SPX DIV yield at prior Bear BOTTOMS. We are at 1.7% !
D
6 to 7% SPX DIV yield at prior Bear BOTTOMS. We are at 1.7% !
D
Sunday, May 01, 2005
KUDLOW 101
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1114968203.php
At least I am not the only one who thinks this guy is oFF!!
At least I am not the only one who thinks this guy is oFF!!
SOFT PATCH?
GAS PRICES TAKING THEIR TOLL?
N.Korea fired a missle test this weekend, see if ANOTHER news story matters to markets,as we go from STORY to STORY....and then there was the FED, I think NO accident $53 B CRISIS liquidity added last reporting week.
D
N.Korea fired a missle test this weekend, see if ANOTHER news story matters to markets,as we go from STORY to STORY....and then there was the FED, I think NO accident $53 B CRISIS liquidity added last reporting week.
D
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
