Monday, May 30, 2005

STACKED DECK? PROBLEMS MOUNTING UP

  1. MARGIN DEBT NEW HIGHS
  2. FALLING OFF OF SHORT INTEREST
  3. FLATTENING YIELD CURVE, FALLING BOND YIELDS
  4. DECLINING Y/Y M2 MONEY SUPPLY (AS SHOWN NORTHERN POST)
  5. HISTORIC HIGHS TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT
  6. DECLINING CONSUMER SENTIMENT
  7. PARABOLIC MOVE IN HOME SALES AND PRICES
  8. WEAKENING JOB PICTURE
  9. DESTRUCTION OF MANUFACTURING
  10. PENSION CRISIS
  11. 8,000 HEDGE FUNDS AND TRILLIONS OF DERIVITIVES
  12. END OF FANNIE AND FREDDIE AS KEY LENDERS
  13. CONTINUED THUGGERY AS WITH AIG
  14. STOCK OPTIONS STILL NOT EXPENSED, OVERSTATES TECH EARNINGS GROSSLY
  15. LAND GRAB, BUILDERS FIGHTING, BIDDING WARS OVER UNDEVELOPED LAND (SEE LAST TOLL BROS POST, THEY HAVE 6-8 YR SUPPLY)
  16. SIGNS OF TOP IN CREDIT EXPANSION
  17. EARNINGS WARNING FROM FINANCIALS, ENERGY STOCKS WEAK
  18. END OF EOCNOMIC STIMULUS
  19. POTENTIAL TRADE WARS
  20. NEW STRICTER BANKRUPTCY LAWS
  21. NEAR ZERO SAVINGS RATE
  22. STOCK PRICES STILL AT OVEVRALUED EXTREMES AND THIN MISERLY DIVIDENDS YIELDS (NEAR 2% !!)
  23. BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS END WITH SINGLE DIGIT PE RATIO AND NEAR 6% DIVIDEND YIELDS, WE HAVE NEITHER NOR DID WE AT OCT LOWS (WAS 30 PE 1.7% YIELDS) HAVE ALSO NOT HAD PLETHORA OF 90% DOWN DAYS DURING BEAR MARKET.
  24. LEI HAS BEEN SHOWING WEAKNESS
  25. HOUSING AND AUTO'S ARE MAIN GROWTH ENGINES OF ECONOMY, BOTH WE HAVE BORROWED FROM FUTURE DEMAND
  26. HIGH ENERGY COSTS ACT LIKE A TAX ON CONSUMERS
  27. CYCLICAL BULL MARKET BEGAN IN OCT 2002 IS NOW NEARING 3 YEARS OLD, LONG IN THE TOOTH, NET NOWHERE LAST 12 MONTHS.
  28. LESS TALK OF HOUSING BUBBLE, MORE TALK OF HOW THE EXPANSION WILL NOT END.
  29. 200% MOVE IN FED FUNDS RATE, A TIGHTENING FED FIGHTING INFLATION WHERE THERE IS LITTLE SIGN OF IT EXCEPT IN BUBBLE LIKE MOVE IN HOUSING VALUES, THEIR ACTION HAS DONE NOTHING TO STEM THE SPECULATION IN HOUSING, 1/3 OF HOMES OR MORE BOUGHT AS INVESTMENT. FALLING LONG TERM RATES A SIGN THEY HAVE NO CONTROL.
  30. CAUTION IS WARRANTED, A SWIFT CHANGE WILL COME SUDDENLY AND WILL NOT BE EXPECTED. MARKET MOVING ON FALSE MANIPULATED ADJUSTED GOV DATA, THINK TROJAN HORSE.
  31. G-D BLESS OUR FIGHTING MEN AND WOMAN THIS MEMORIAL DAY.

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