Housing stocks rebounded from awful plunge NOT because things are better, because as rates have fallen players came back for dead cat, this market is satiated, how could it not be? As Mish points out, it is isue of affordability, what was $200K is many HOT areas is now $400K or much higher. Rep Rich B was in Tues, he has house on Severn River (2400 sq ft, 500 ft of waterfront though, modest house!) listing? $1.9 M !! OH 3 bedrooms! LOL cant sell it.
You need ROOM for NEXT GUY you HAND OFF to ,to make a buck or the PONZI scheme COLLAPSES. We are only in warm up phase not even 1st inning and its Tampa Bay against O's !
I am AFRAID of oil because I feel the worlds economy ARE due to cool off, Nat Gas has COLLAPSED (lower again today) the fuel of choice of most major Utilities.....if I did play a few select would be TIGHT F'ing stops I would use.
Msh talks about M1 lack of growth how about ADJ monetary base, even when one understands its description, it may not be THE measurement but it is important stat, it hasnt BUDGED ALL YEAR!
Office furn companies are turning in SUPER earnings, but we lag economy up and then down. 6% across the board PRICE INCREASES are now just coming in and thru end of year.....only Chinese not raising, except within diverse US company like HON.
Quality control issue with ALL Chinese desks, #1 in defects and damages
Transports made up ground Tues, but watch to see if any NEW Dow high confirmed, divergence could last for months of course or years? Mid caps and small caps lag this rally.
Dow 30 easiest to manipulate, least effected by Bear, but NEW CLOSING HIGH seems GUARANTEED being 50 pts shy......as this occurs will there be a MASSIVE SHORT covering SPIKE ?
Commercials wrong again net index? Program trading rules, hedgies using leverage.......but positions have NO ground under feet. Can NO Longer guess when JIG is up (mine though is AFTER NOV 7th IF Repub's get booted)......even as warnings from Lowes and HD come in, horrid misses by Home builders as we have evidence of trickle down pain......talk of sOFT landing dominates, not seen in job numbers yet, are these being hidden? for now?
Folks, non confirms aside, there was NO warning in 2000 when TOP was made, there wont be this time either. AMERICA has been LONG the stock market and has not run away even after Bear, this rally only infuses the planners mantra "LTBH" works.....even now given the chance to BE BACK TO EVEN OR BETTER does not appeal to the masses.
I am still IN CASH, when they pay me near 5% and totally safe, markets made by liquidity and credit debt not investment = castles made of sand. Debt is at all time records as % of GDP, it takes EVER increasing amounts of debt to product $1 of GDP, we are near the PUKE factor.....in the face of impressive move in Dow I remain risk averse.
D
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