Tuesday, December 26, 2006

XMAS CHEER?

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/297204_holiday26.html Holiday retail sales fall short of estimates, deeper discounts coming equal weaker profits from retailers.

SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING TOP

Transports very weak, sensitive to economic conditions. Have not confirmed new highs in the Dow.

Several FED indiactors showing contraction of economy.

DOA residential housing.

Democratic control of both houses means stagnation and less possibility of keeping or adding tax incentives.

Bull market long in tooth in cycle.

Peter Eliades points out MANY cycles predicting top between Jan0March period.

NAZ underperforming. Strength becoming more selective. Energy weak.

This may be a period where one would weed out weaker performers in portfolio, I may not be short just yet, but I am on defensive and not long. JMHO

D

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