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Contrarian market commentary and economic postings.
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2007
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March
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- MUSHROOM CLOUD
- RUNNING OUT OF GAS
- STEPHEN ROACH
- THE HAVE NOTS
- WED FED MEETING
- KRAKATOA THEORY
- SMACK BETWEEN THE EYES
- HEDGE FUNDS TAKE A HIT
- MAESTRO SPEAKS
- CRAMER EXPOSED ON UTUBE
- 90% DOWNSIDE VOLUME DAY ALERT!!!
- YHOO FINANCE MKT UPDATE
- AM THOUGHTS
- STEPHEN ROACH WEIGHS IN
- "AN INCONVIENENT TRUTH"
- SUBPRIME WOES
- MONEY FLOW MYTH
- CHINA CARRY TRADE OVER?
- IT'S A NEW CENTURY
- THE WORM TURNS
- WE HIT BOTTOM YET?
- 90% SURE
- A REAL LOOK AT IRAQ
- 500 POINT WARNIG SHOT, MASSES ABOUT TO BE BURNED A...
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March
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About Me
- Marc R
- Baltimore, Maryland, United States
- PROFILE FOR MY 1 SOURCE BLOG: We have over 30 years of experience and the best resources available to bring you unequaled value and customer service. We look forward to helping you with your next project with our "Creative Office Solutions" #2 PROFILE FOR MY MARKET "HOBBY" BLOG I have been writing about stocks and the market since the late 90's. My record of calling the last 2 , now maybe 3 bear markets stands. There is more to investing than just avoiding bear markets, but it sure doesn't hurt. I offer NO recommendation to buy or sell equities or trade any vehicle...I just offer my opinion for what it's worth. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any actions. this financial blog is for amusement only.
1 comment:
this is an interesting comment. I think I have read other material form him before.
"In order for the S&P 500 to achieve a “normal” annual return of about 11% over the coming 5 years, we have to assume a maintenance of record margins, sustained top-of-channel earnings growth (which has never before been sustained for such a period), and an expansion of valuations to a multiple of 20 times peak earnings (the same multiple as at the 1929 and 1987 peaks, which is double the average historical multiple on top-of-channel earnings). Investors should think now about whether these assumptions are plausible, because they may find themselves wondering later why they ever did.
My impression is that the probable expectation for total returns on the S&P 500 over the coming 5-years is below 5% annually, in a likely interval that includes zero. It takes implausibly optimistic assumptions to move substantially above that range.
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