Friday, April 04, 2008

BEAR CASE OR 6 PACK?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53661529646&a=135134819
Many ways to look at TA, this is just my view.

SNDK nice pop off lows, was telling friends last week has been in PAST good buy near $20, some decided to buy the 22.50 calls....RIMM ect good longs off lows....always a trade to be found, just like to know where I am in trend and cycle while doing it.
Gold and OIL I am not sure to be honest, think some beaten down good, and bull not show killed....

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf Largest growth in ADJ M in some time
.... Each of the past 2 easing cycles started from HIGHER RATES (more ammo) and ended at LOWER Rates (LESS AMMO) IN last 20 years I could not find another time of a faster cutting environment, and only found ONE other 75 BP cut (as far as Gov data I could find) That period incl longest runing bull mkt. LOWS were made when CUTTING cycle had ended (was a good time to buy.....) With MY TA telling me Bear is YOUNG (or NO bull signal yet)

I am keeping powder DRY and feel GOOD CHANCE we SEE 1% or LOWER rates ahead......

ALL and I MEAN ALL the biz people I talk to see NO LIGHT YET, ALL said environment is getting "WORSE" BUT WDIK....I hope this changes soon..... you tell me WHAT are the signs of improving LIQUIDITY? YOU tell me if a BUBBLE (CREDIT?DEBT ETC) can be reinflated as it is trying to deflate and UNWIND?

Duratek

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good analysis. Hope you will publish more of this in the near future.

Thanks,
MT

Marc R said...

Thanks MT, I am being yanked n a lot of different directions lately,but try to post several x's a week.

I also plan to add more technical analaysis (not everyone's interest) and some of my stock interests...

thanks for letting me know...you're out there....take carew

Duratek