Sunday, October 19, 2008

HAS ENOUGH BEEN DONE TO STEM WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS?

Finished recent ROubini.....
We are in uncharted territory/ Mkt action/reaction as ROunbini points out to EACH ROUND OF MEASURES to stem the panic has been met with shorter and shorter rallies. I had run chart pinpointing price at EACH FED RATE CUT, showing mkt was ALWAYS LOWER after, and 2 other trends

Market FOLLOWS direction of OIL and RATE CUTS....reason? obvious oil rises as do rates (cept VOLKER!!!) when/because economy is gaining strength and demand increases, so will SPX profits especially from ENERGY SECTOR (TAKE OUT? THESE 2 FROM COMING EARINGS SEASON?) same fall in weakening environment which of course leads to LOWER and LOWER SPX PROFITS which DO NOT SUPPORT RISING EQUITY PRICES.

I am not ruling out trying to catch a few points in a rally effort, but my main acct is staying in cash right now. Is OCT crash 1929 in time frame? current environment may be unique and so will or have the market actions.....including volatility as UPTICK rule is gone when before present.....it MAY be impacting measurment of VIX compared to PAST when UPTICK rule was IN, making PAST observances not as accurate....or even valid.

MKT NEEDS CASH COMING IN TO LIQUIFY the deleveraging......without SOME LEVEL OF BUYING INTEREST (FED BACKSTOPPING BUFFET???????) picking up and SOON.......that parabolic move in OCT could continue and quickly.....as it continues to FEED ON ITSELF AS IT CANNOT FEED ON NEW MONEY

OBAMA is lesslikely to want to do RIGHT THING FOR THOSE WHO GOT US IN THIS MESS......some actions...head hunting, STRICTER oversight etc....repeal of div tax cuts could SNOWBALL this thing to its end game.... 50% retrace of ENTIRE 1980's-present bull would leave us under 7,000 so what will satisfy mkt g-ds.....retrace of 2002 or beyond?

Is action already taken ENOUGH? as ROubini also points out, we got our BUMP from G7 already...and that was MASSIVE WORLWIDE ATTACK

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