http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/30/opinion/30brooks.html?_r=1 MUST READ ABOUT STIM THAT DOESNT STIM AMAZING STUFF
D
Friday, January 30, 2009
GEE DP
Inventories Boost GDP
Last Update: 30-Jan-09 08:48 ET briefing.com
I
nventories rose slightly in the fourth quarter. That compared to a large drop in the third quarter, so the contribution to GDP from inventories was a much stronger-than-expected 1.3%.
That led to a smaller-than-expected drop in overall GDP of 3.8%, compared to an expected drop of about 5.5%.
The other components were not as upbeat.
Personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) dropped at a 3.5% annual rate and sliced 2.5% off GDP.
Nonresidential investment plunged at a 19% annual rate and residential investment (housing) dropped at a 28% annual rate.
Government spending did manage a modest increase.
A
lso a bit of a surprise, net exports added 0.1% to GDP rather than taking a bit off.
Overall, the trends in the key components -- business investment, consumer spending, and housing -- remain poor.
The inventory boost is not likely to continue into the first quarter, and net exports could well turn negative. That sets the stage for a similar decline at a rate of 3% to 4% for first quarter real GDP.
The headline on this report is not as bad as feared, but the breakdown doesn't provide much encouragement.
*** Tennesee Airport reported a 33% DROP in AIR CARGO....worst on record since 911.
Recent report shows Japan's economy shrunk by 10%.
Forget the "LITTLE PEOPLE" if OBAMA panders to gov spending and handing out condoms....and NOT GIVING SMALL to MED size biz a hand...lookout below
D
Last Update: 30-Jan-09 08:48 ET briefing.com
I
nventories rose slightly in the fourth quarter. That compared to a large drop in the third quarter, so the contribution to GDP from inventories was a much stronger-than-expected 1.3%.
That led to a smaller-than-expected drop in overall GDP of 3.8%, compared to an expected drop of about 5.5%.
The other components were not as upbeat.
Personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) dropped at a 3.5% annual rate and sliced 2.5% off GDP.
Nonresidential investment plunged at a 19% annual rate and residential investment (housing) dropped at a 28% annual rate.
Government spending did manage a modest increase.
A
lso a bit of a surprise, net exports added 0.1% to GDP rather than taking a bit off.
Overall, the trends in the key components -- business investment, consumer spending, and housing -- remain poor.
The inventory boost is not likely to continue into the first quarter, and net exports could well turn negative. That sets the stage for a similar decline at a rate of 3% to 4% for first quarter real GDP.
The headline on this report is not as bad as feared, but the breakdown doesn't provide much encouragement.
*** Tennesee Airport reported a 33% DROP in AIR CARGO....worst on record since 911.
Recent report shows Japan's economy shrunk by 10%.
Forget the "LITTLE PEOPLE" if OBAMA panders to gov spending and handing out condoms....and NOT GIVING SMALL to MED size biz a hand...lookout below
D
NO PLACE TO GO BUT DOWN
• NEC plans to eliminate 20,000 jobs from groupwide workforce (70,000 cuts announced from various companies yesterday alone)
• Obama, Congress seek compromise deal on stimulus plan (a stim that porks you instead of stims you...by the time this works we'll be toasted)
RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD as the slowdown screws even the rich people, Read where Kevin Bacon lost all his investments (less real Estate) to MAdoff scam? Wish you were LeBron James?
State budgets under water, here in MD projected shortfall is $2B with a B....gov workers face an axe.....that may be all that's left to deal with slowdown....and that makes it worse. 4.8 Million already (and then some) on work release.
Housing mkt yet to even slow down let alone reverse declining trend. BANKING SYSTEM ON LIFE SUPPORT
Even with FED talkity talk....10 yr yields are rising (lows near 2% now 2.8%)
It may be late, but the R word may be the D word. SMALL BUSINESSES NEED A BAILOUT or the shedding of workers will see a HUGE uptick.
EVEN more debt being Piled up on the NEXT GEN.
One explanation for the rising $$$$ could be sickening condition of the Euro zone in particlar Britain.....and I have one more thought.
The US $$$ is rising (for now even as gold rises) BECAUSE in my OPINION it must be that we are in a SEVERE DEFLATIONARY CLIMATE!! US $$$$$$'S are being DESTROYED making those remaining to pay off debt MORE VALUABLE
If you have better idea please leave a comment. FED statement doesn't sound positive for the rest of this year or maybe 2010.
ASSETS continue to DEFLATE IN VALUE.....even as record attempts to REFLATE/INFLATE debts away is failing.....there is little to no VELOCITY of money.
AFter seeing 50% or more whither away from mkt holdings....how much more will the little guy take before we get capitualtion? Because I dont think we did yet, yesterday was another 90% down volume day suggesting the desire to sell has NOT been extighuished.....and I DO mean this, good luck everyone. I have my OWN HELL to deal with as I continue to do my best and get the word out and share my opinion and views...my record is ALL HERE for review.
PS....my blog has now been visited from readers in 48 dif countries.....thank you for taking the time.
D
• Obama, Congress seek compromise deal on stimulus plan (a stim that porks you instead of stims you...by the time this works we'll be toasted)
RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD as the slowdown screws even the rich people, Read where Kevin Bacon lost all his investments (less real Estate) to MAdoff scam? Wish you were LeBron James?
State budgets under water, here in MD projected shortfall is $2B with a B....gov workers face an axe.....that may be all that's left to deal with slowdown....and that makes it worse. 4.8 Million already (and then some) on work release.
Housing mkt yet to even slow down let alone reverse declining trend. BANKING SYSTEM ON LIFE SUPPORT
Even with FED talkity talk....10 yr yields are rising (lows near 2% now 2.8%)
It may be late, but the R word may be the D word. SMALL BUSINESSES NEED A BAILOUT or the shedding of workers will see a HUGE uptick.
EVEN more debt being Piled up on the NEXT GEN.
One explanation for the rising $$$$ could be sickening condition of the Euro zone in particlar Britain.....and I have one more thought.
The US $$$ is rising (for now even as gold rises) BECAUSE in my OPINION it must be that we are in a SEVERE DEFLATIONARY CLIMATE!! US $$$$$$'S are being DESTROYED making those remaining to pay off debt MORE VALUABLE
If you have better idea please leave a comment. FED statement doesn't sound positive for the rest of this year or maybe 2010.
ASSETS continue to DEFLATE IN VALUE.....even as record attempts to REFLATE/INFLATE debts away is failing.....there is little to no VELOCITY of money.
AFter seeing 50% or more whither away from mkt holdings....how much more will the little guy take before we get capitualtion? Because I dont think we did yet, yesterday was another 90% down volume day suggesting the desire to sell has NOT been extighuished.....and I DO mean this, good luck everyone. I have my OWN HELL to deal with as I continue to do my best and get the word out and share my opinion and views...my record is ALL HERE for review.
PS....my blog has now been visited from readers in 48 dif countries.....thank you for taking the time.
D
Thursday, January 29, 2009
STIM AS PORK
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=6757733
http://wbal.com/shows/smith/ Conservative talk show US eastern time weekdays 3-6 PM many x's covering the REAL topics.
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/28/good-morning-suckers/print PORK REVEALED
AFter GDP report.....will the market have an accident? What to do when you see Gov flail around and suck wind, pass pork instead of real stim and give themselves a 3% pay increase? THAT'S RIGHT!!!
Under the freakin circumstances do you think they should have declined one those $$M aires?
Money the GOV is wasting.....is money taken OUT of the private sector, we need PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, not gov pork and handouts.
D
http://wbal.com/shows/smith/ Conservative talk show US eastern time weekdays 3-6 PM many x's covering the REAL topics.
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/28/good-morning-suckers/print PORK REVEALED
AFter GDP report.....will the market have an accident? What to do when you see Gov flail around and suck wind, pass pork instead of real stim and give themselves a 3% pay increase? THAT'S RIGHT!!!
Under the freakin circumstances do you think they should have declined one those $$M aires?
Money the GOV is wasting.....is money taken OUT of the private sector, we need PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, not gov pork and handouts.
D
SPX FAIR VALUE?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/spx-earnings-mu.html FAIR VALUE IS?
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090123_dec.html CArl Swenlin "decline in progress" 1/23/2009
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html MUST READ on SPX 500 valuations
D
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090123_dec.html CArl Swenlin "decline in progress" 1/23/2009
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html MUST READ on SPX 500 valuations
D
ECONOMIC DATA
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm LOOK at revision to DURABLE ORDERS # !!! what good is this data if not even CLOSE to accurate?
BUSINESSES NEED TAX CUTS......REAL MIDDLE CLASS NEED TAX CUTS.....STIM PLAN LIMP!
D
BUSINESSES NEED TAX CUTS......REAL MIDDLE CLASS NEED TAX CUTS.....STIM PLAN LIMP!
D
MONETIZING THE DEBT
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11981.htm DEC 2008
http://www.ronpaul.com/ Don't worry about the printing press.....for now?
If the FED buys long dated Treasuries to BRING DOWN interest rates......when all else fails do more harm?
D
http://www.ronpaul.com/ Don't worry about the printing press.....for now?
If the FED buys long dated Treasuries to BRING DOWN interest rates......when all else fails do more harm?
D
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
FED POLICY SATEMENT
Fed: Rates to remain low 'for some time'
Wednesday January 28, 2009, 2:21 pm EST
The following statement was posted on the Federal Reserve Web site on January 28, 2009:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.
Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly.
Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.
Subdued inflation
In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.
The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.
The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.
Wednesday January 28, 2009, 2:21 pm EST
The following statement was posted on the Federal Reserve Web site on January 28, 2009:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.
Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly.
Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.
Subdued inflation
In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.
The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.
The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.
OUCH!!!
Boeing to cut 10000 jobsCNNMoney.com - 28 minutes ago
Plane maker announces an additional 5500 job cuts as demand for new aircraft is expected to remain weak. By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer How will the economic stimulus package help your job situation?Boeing Plans to Cut 10000 Jobs as Demand Weakens BloombergBoeing reports loss for quarter and sees tough times ahead International Herald TribuneBizjournals.com - guardian.co.uk -
Seattle Timesall 603 news articles » AMS:BOEI - BA
ZDNetAT&T Profit Drops as Customers Depart Amid Recession
Bloomberg - 2 hours agoBy Amy Thomson Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- AT&T Inc., the second-largest US phone company, said fourth-quarter profit fell 23 percent as the US recession pushed home-phone customers to disconnect lines, eating into the carrier’s largest business.
Plane maker announces an additional 5500 job cuts as demand for new aircraft is expected to remain weak. By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer How will the economic stimulus package help your job situation?Boeing Plans to Cut 10000 Jobs as Demand Weakens BloombergBoeing reports loss for quarter and sees tough times ahead International Herald TribuneBizjournals.com - guardian.co.uk -
Seattle Timesall 603 news articles » AMS:BOEI - BA
ZDNetAT&T Profit Drops as Customers Depart Amid Recession
Bloomberg - 2 hours agoBy Amy Thomson Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- AT&T Inc., the second-largest US phone company, said fourth-quarter profit fell 23 percent as the US recession pushed home-phone customers to disconnect lines, eating into the carrier’s largest business.
ROUBINI COMMENTS
NYU’s Roubini: "Nowhere to Hide" from Global SlowdownJan 28, 2009 08:44am EST by Tech Ticker in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
Related: ^gspc, ^dji, bac, c, jpm, wfc, xlf
Nouriel Roubini of NYU’s Stern School of Business is making fresh headlines, as he's forecasting an even more dire outlook for the global economy. In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg News in Zurich, Roubini said:
The U.S. will lose 6 million jobs with unemployment reaching at least 9 percent.
The U.S. economy will expand 1 percent at most in 2010.
Economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent.
He reiterated his statements that the biggest U.S. banks are insolvent, and that losses could reach $3.6 trillion, far exceeding his original estiamtes.
Is Roubini -- nicknamed "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic yet accurate forecasts in recent years -- off the mark? We ask colleague and fellow NYU economist Lawrence White. One message from White is clear. Acknowledge losses swiftly or we risk a Japan-like drawn-out recession with no near-term recovery in sight. Yesterday, White and Henry Blodget also discussed:
Why the U.S. government is afraid to let banks fail amid growing chatter in Washington D.C. for an "aggregator" bank model, and
The need for corporate executive accountability as John Thain, formerly of Merrill, denied charges he failed to warn Bank of America of mounting losses.
Related: ^gspc, ^dji, bac, c, jpm, wfc, xlf
Nouriel Roubini of NYU’s Stern School of Business is making fresh headlines, as he's forecasting an even more dire outlook for the global economy. In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg News in Zurich, Roubini said:
The U.S. will lose 6 million jobs with unemployment reaching at least 9 percent.
The U.S. economy will expand 1 percent at most in 2010.
Economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent.
He reiterated his statements that the biggest U.S. banks are insolvent, and that losses could reach $3.6 trillion, far exceeding his original estiamtes.
Is Roubini -- nicknamed "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic yet accurate forecasts in recent years -- off the mark? We ask colleague and fellow NYU economist Lawrence White. One message from White is clear. Acknowledge losses swiftly or we risk a Japan-like drawn-out recession with no near-term recovery in sight. Yesterday, White and Henry Blodget also discussed:
Why the U.S. government is afraid to let banks fail amid growing chatter in Washington D.C. for an "aggregator" bank model, and
The need for corporate executive accountability as John Thain, formerly of Merrill, denied charges he failed to warn Bank of America of mounting losses.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
NO CONFIDENCE
HOW do you repair economy when jobs are being shed and consumer confidence is falling to levels not seen in DECADES?
Home values continue to decline. Stimulus won't stimulate. The weak and sickly banks are kept on life support with taxpayer money, and the ones healthier or got one good leg are hoarding the "free money".
BUsiness is near NON EXISTANT. GDP THIS FRI. TEPID RALLY APPEARS to be consolidation of previous decline. There is NO buyer enthusiasm.
Wouldn't a company like CAT benefit from supposed infrastructure stim spending? NO, obviously NO if they just announced HUGE LAYOFFS.....why there are OODLES of these cranes, earth movers etc idled all over the globe as the last BOOM caused SEVERE over building.
BDI skuds along its bottom...improving only slightly.
Even as I post THIS the DOW is near unchanged.
Decision pt, as I posted earlier has great piece on FAIR VALUE and it doesn't paint a bully picture
D
IS THIS BOTTOMING??!!!
S&P: Home Values Post 18.2 Percent Annual Drop in November- AP
A closely watched index shows home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in November. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 18.2 percent from November 2007, the largest decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.1 percent, tied with October for the biggest drop in its 21-year history.
A closely watched index shows home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in November. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 18.2 percent from November 2007, the largest decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.1 percent, tied with October for the biggest drop in its 21-year history.
Monday, January 26, 2009
40,000 GONE AND TAX EVADER IS IN
CAT etc......40,000 jobs lost today alone!
Geithner voted in as Treasury Secretary8:08pm: Senators approve President Obama's pick to oversee the government's response to financial crisis. Some Republicans object.
CAN THIS F'ER DO MY TAXES???? A F'ING JOKE this country is a joke! Glad we could get some REAL PEOPLE with CLASS, not connected in to run things....
It is SO BAD out there people, you know......no one willing to tell truth...we are so screwed.
D
Geithner voted in as Treasury Secretary8:08pm: Senators approve President Obama's pick to oversee the government's response to financial crisis. Some Republicans object.
CAN THIS F'ER DO MY TAXES???? A F'ING JOKE this country is a joke! Glad we could get some REAL PEOPLE with CLASS, not connected in to run things....
It is SO BAD out there people, you know......no one willing to tell truth...we are so screwed.
D
Saturday, January 24, 2009
MARKET BUILDING UP TO SOMETHING
WHat I see is a DESCENDING WEDGE pattern and considering this is consolidation in a bear market decline, IMHO this will break DOWN.
DOUG NOLAND TROUBLE IN THE U.K. http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10180
D
Friday, January 23, 2009
"STOCKS ARE CHEAP!!!" SAY WHAT!!
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html are they really?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf "To the moon Alice"
D
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf "To the moon Alice"
D
ROUBINI ON CHINA
The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%
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Nouriel Roubini Jan 22, 2009
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recessionSo the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati
Nouriel Roubini Jan 22, 2009
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recessionSo the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
MARKET IN DANGER OF REVISITING LOWS
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/106466/Where-You-Won Retailers in danger of extinction
*(click to enlarge chart) 60M view of JAN 09 SPX action, as Dow is only 30 stocks (S&P are 500) and many are below $5 the DOW no longer represents TRUE market action.
Transports are weak and in lock step with overall market decline and both appear ready to TEST 08 lows.
In desperate attempt to revive Chinese real estate market, some developers are lowering prices 20% which has immediately devalued those who had bought into developments ahead of this heavy discounting. Recently, though weak it seems like Chinese stock market has held up beter than lets say the Japanese now under 8,000 again, remember in the 1990's (REAL ESTATE BUBBLE STOCK BUBBLE) when their market was 40,000? Now almost 20 years later you see what forces of DEFLATION are capable of doing?
Then are you confused with recent strength of the US $$$? (YEN has plumetted). Deflation destroys dollars so those remaining increase in value.....who thinks INFLATION is winning?
WHat will even $1 Trilion of GOV spending over 2 years do to repair the destruction of over $8 Trillion?
And recently the Bond market has been selling off. Gold remains strong even in face of rising $....will this continue?
Most have seen a 30-50% loss in their stock portfolio's, add loss of house value you see power of this trend.
My readers I hope have stayed SAFE with me all during this bear market, and I hope to continue to help guide us thru this difficult period, all IMHO of course......but you can see problems with STANDING PAT NO MATTER WHAT
D
Thursday, January 22, 2009
ILL WINDS BLOWING
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm AM DATA
CONFLCTING
Microsoft to slash 5,000 jobs, misses on 2Q profit- AP
Housing starts drop to record low in December- AP
New jobless claims rise more than expected- AP
Oil hits $45 as US company news improves- AP ?????????
TEST OF LOWS MORE LIKELY INHO
D
CONFLCTING
Microsoft to slash 5,000 jobs, misses on 2Q profit- AP
Housing starts drop to record low in December- AP
New jobless claims rise more than expected- AP
Oil hits $45 as US company news improves- AP ?????????
TEST OF LOWS MORE LIKELY INHO
D
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
BEAR MARKET RESUMES!!
Ericsson cuts 5,000 jobs and posts 31 percent drop in 4Q profit. TOO MUCH OF THIS and the stock market is now reacting to the bad news, and the sellers were OUT IN FORCE TUESDAY with another 90% down volume day! The buying control program L had issued end of last year is now reversed and a fully defensive posture is now in vogue (for me when wasn't it?)
On a day where HOPS was the key topic and CHANGE is for the good, to see a market in freefall was disarming. It is typical to get a few days respite after a 90% down day, after which IF IT COMES the lows are to be challenged.
Transports Nov low of 2,988 has been broken. SPX NOV low (daily) is 752.44 and nothing between here and DOW 7552.29 low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62222868433 UYG was off near 30% from already putrid level to a NEW LOW!!! $2.73
MY call to watch VIX support near 40 called THE TOP of this fetid rally, and my propritary indicator has turned DOWN once again and made a NEW DAILY LOW, it is clear to me now I cannot can THE BOTTOM with this until its supporting MOMO cross up, not just by sheer new low readings alone.
HNI IMHO would be early benefactor of renewed economic strength appears to have renewed it's downtrend. It has in the past front run moves up and down by a year or more.
GE a new low for move, there is a HEAVY SHORT position there. INT rates and OIL spiked Tues.
GOV is buyer of last resort of almost everything.....to see UYG break down like this is to see the banking system barely on life support......we can all pray now.
D
Saturday, January 17, 2009
50K IN ONE WEEK
50,000 job losses reported FRI, major corporations paring down departments and seeing 50% whithering of orders, or no back logs.
The MAJOR Banks are on life support and death watch, more than doubling the monetary base in a few short months has not turned this around.
MAJOR BEAR MARKETS (this isn't?) have ended with SINGLE DIGIT PE'S and DIVIE YIELDS North of 6% for SPX. WHAT ARE PROJECTED SPX EARNINGS GOING FORWARD?
Some have suggested falling to maybe $50 and X 10 gives us a SPX at 500 not 850....this is certainly possible.
Historically we find MANY indicators well beyond previous bear mkt bottom extremes, trouble is extremes were hit other way too.....hard to say how much more unwinding we get.....or whether we get Obama bounce, or have we already had it?
D
The MAJOR Banks are on life support and death watch, more than doubling the monetary base in a few short months has not turned this around.
MAJOR BEAR MARKETS (this isn't?) have ended with SINGLE DIGIT PE'S and DIVIE YIELDS North of 6% for SPX. WHAT ARE PROJECTED SPX EARNINGS GOING FORWARD?
Some have suggested falling to maybe $50 and X 10 gives us a SPX at 500 not 850....this is certainly possible.
Historically we find MANY indicators well beyond previous bear mkt bottom extremes, trouble is extremes were hit other way too.....hard to say how much more unwinding we get.....or whether we get Obama bounce, or have we already had it?
D
Friday, January 16, 2009
$8 TRILLION GONE AND COUNTING
Those are the lost value of real estate and stock market portfolio's, and so with a handful of $billions...stim we fix everything? WHY do you think GROWING the FED money machine from $800 to near $2 Trillion hasnt righted the ship?
It's called DEFLATION. $$$$'s are being DESTROYED.....one's left over more valuable so for now the US grinchback has been rising....in the end it certainly may die in swarm of inflation but for now inflation talk is a JOKE. Golds alure IMHO is safety or this one day inflation comes scenario.
SPX R is 850-857 Trans is near NOV lows......a complete COLLAPSE is possible,,,,maybe some giddyup around O's innauguration.....and the HOPE PLAY.
D
It's called DEFLATION. $$$$'s are being DESTROYED.....one's left over more valuable so for now the US grinchback has been rising....in the end it certainly may die in swarm of inflation but for now inflation talk is a JOKE. Golds alure IMHO is safety or this one day inflation comes scenario.
SPX R is 850-857 Trans is near NOV lows......a complete COLLAPSE is possible,,,,maybe some giddyup around O's innauguration.....and the HOPE PLAY.
D
FOR THOSE WHO WERE WONDERING
I do more than write on my blog....I'm the DUDE on BASS! haaaa
PS I DO NOT LIKE the market action.....SDS popped from it's base at$65 to over $80, nice move........now we are red.....weak action
D
Thursday, January 15, 2009
HAMMER TIME
OPEX FRI LOOMS....time to catch greedy bears off guard? reversal today....on news more bank bailouts...oh boy "we got your back!"
D
MARKET SELLOFF ALERT
Yesterday's decline qualified as a 90% down volume day....brutal intense and took the averages below support levels.
Remember we had been watching the VIX for further weakness but it gained support near 40 and has been rising.
Oversold, again mkt not able to stem the slide, bad sign.....did anyone REALLY expect upbeat economic data?
Hope ain't enough friends....as the layoffs and cuts in spending sprial so do our recovery hopes....
D
Remember we had been watching the VIX for further weakness but it gained support near 40 and has been rising.
Oversold, again mkt not able to stem the slide, bad sign.....did anyone REALLY expect upbeat economic data?
Hope ain't enough friends....as the layoffs and cuts in spending sprial so do our recovery hopes....
D
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Friday, January 09, 2009
PANICKING FED
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf a DOUBLE OF EXISTING!!!!!!! in less than 4 months
REVISIONS to empeloyment report show how reliable it is...MUCH worse
D
REVISIONS to empeloyment report show how reliable it is...MUCH worse
D
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
REALITY BITES
Stocks set to drop as jobs in focus Jan 7: 8:25a
Markets to consider Alcoa payroll cut and two reports on December employment. (more)
Mortgage applications dip despite low rates
Announced job cuts remain high, firm says
Watch for rise of VIX back above 40 for early warning.....so far sellers have hibernated.
D
Markets to consider Alcoa payroll cut and two reports on December employment. (more)
Mortgage applications dip despite low rates
Announced job cuts remain high, firm says
Watch for rise of VIX back above 40 for early warning.....so far sellers have hibernated.
D
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Monday, January 05, 2009
WILL IT MAKE TRIP to 200 Moving Avg?
I had 9200 area as one to watch....VIX has been falling, but still elevated....almost seems like coast is clear? but I dont think it isD
Saturday, January 03, 2009
FED BEHIND THE CURTAIN
The Fed is also focused on two other areas as it seeks to stimulate the economy – financing consumer loans and potential purchases of Treasury bonds.
To fund these operations it is expanding bank reserves rapidly – creating money in a similar way to if it were printing dollar bills.
The Fed is eager to increase the size of the financing programme in which it offers low-cost loans to investors who purchase new consumer loans bundled up as asset-backed securities. But to do so it will require more risk capital from the Obama Treasury, since the Fed is not legally permitted to lend with some expected loss.
Fed officials, however, believe they legally can buy Fannie and Freddie securities without limit since these securities are backed by the US government.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ceace2c-d6ca-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html
when you look at ADJ M base…..at least I am scratching head, 75% of all money created in 2 months…..and not working yet?
To fund these operations it is expanding bank reserves rapidly – creating money in a similar way to if it were printing dollar bills.
The Fed is eager to increase the size of the financing programme in which it offers low-cost loans to investors who purchase new consumer loans bundled up as asset-backed securities. But to do so it will require more risk capital from the Obama Treasury, since the Fed is not legally permitted to lend with some expected loss.
Fed officials, however, believe they legally can buy Fannie and Freddie securities without limit since these securities are backed by the US government.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ceace2c-d6ca-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html
when you look at ADJ M base…..at least I am scratching head, 75% of all money created in 2 months…..and not working yet?
Friday, January 02, 2009
"NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/30/markets/2009_look_ahead/index.htm?postversion=2009010120
Idiots still at the wheel? Are we at "fair value?"
Earnings earnings earnings
Largest collapse in commodities in history
Record LOW yield on 30 yr bond
Record expansion of Adj monetary base
record collapse in housing
Banks still frozen.....NO BOTTOM until we see credit expanding as a trend again IMHO
Not even taking a breather http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
And these genius' will be able to control THIS if it ever gets INTO real economy?
D
Idiots still at the wheel? Are we at "fair value?"
Earnings earnings earnings
Largest collapse in commodities in history
Record LOW yield on 30 yr bond
Record expansion of Adj monetary base
record collapse in housing
Banks still frozen.....NO BOTTOM until we see credit expanding as a trend again IMHO
Not even taking a breather http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
And these genius' will be able to control THIS if it ever gets INTO real economy?
D
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