Friday, January 23, 2009

MARKET IN DANGER OF REVISITING LOWS


*(click to enlarge chart) 60M view of JAN 09 SPX action, as Dow is only 30 stocks (S&P are 500) and many are below $5 the DOW no longer represents TRUE market action.
Transports are weak and in lock step with overall market decline and both appear ready to TEST 08 lows.
In desperate attempt to revive Chinese real estate market, some developers are lowering prices 20% which has immediately devalued those who had bought into developments ahead of this heavy discounting. Recently, though weak it seems like Chinese stock market has held up beter than lets say the Japanese now under 8,000 again, remember in the 1990's (REAL ESTATE BUBBLE STOCK BUBBLE) when their market was 40,000? Now almost 20 years later you see what forces of DEFLATION are capable of doing?
Then are you confused with recent strength of the US $$$? (YEN has plumetted). Deflation destroys dollars so those remaining increase in value.....who thinks INFLATION is winning?
WHat will even $1 Trilion of GOV spending over 2 years do to repair the destruction of over $8 Trillion?
And recently the Bond market has been selling off. Gold remains strong even in face of rising $....will this continue?
Most have seen a 30-50% loss in their stock portfolio's, add loss of house value you see power of this trend.
My readers I hope have stayed SAFE with me all during this bear market, and I hope to continue to help guide us thru this difficult period, all IMHO of course......but you can see problems with STANDING PAT NO MATTER WHAT
D

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