Perenial BEAR PRECHTER sheds some light on that possibility.
In my mind, employment is the key indicator. A BROAD Pickup in hiring would signal strengthening economy. BUT with 4 week moving average of claims recently RISING to 463,000 a week, it is hard to find ANY proof the trend is improving to any certain degree.
4 week average smooths out any anomalies, we need to see it below 400,000 consistantly. Trend is to pay down debt, save vs take on expanding debt. A tightening of credit and contraction not on par with sustainable recovery.
Yelnick post "BIG TEASE IS BACK" some EWT counts
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