Customized 1970 cuda' One of the most amazing jobs I've ever seen...this is a beast!
Monday, February 28, 2011
US $ ALREADY LOSING SAFE HAVEN STATUS?
Bottom of chart circled is EURO INDEX . Today was not all it seemed to be with weaker upside volume than Fridays market, today just 63% up volume of total NYSE up and down volume....unless we see better internals I don't think correction has run its courseD
SELECTED COMPANY CHART
ONLY THE PLAYERS getting IN and OUT are having much fun. The market is RIGGED, and I wonder if finally the little guy gets it?
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WHAT'S WRONG WITH NEM?
I can't answer that, but what's right with CDE? CEO was upbeat about 2011 and had an earnings beat. NEM appears to be in or headed for a bear mkt....all not created equal
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Jesse's Café Américain: A Microcosm of the Market Manipulation in the US a...
Jesse's Café Américain: A Microcosm of the Market Manipulation in the US a...: "I am seeing this same sort of 'gaming the markets' across many markets and stocks that the author notes below, especially in those markets ..."
CHICAGO PMI HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1980'S !!
Can't make this stuff, well can they?Pending home sales continue to drop, and prior months data shown at PLUS 2% was revised ? DOWN -3.2% !!! guess it rallied on the positive # huh?
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
a HUGE gain in the "basket" of commodities.
But unlike last "recovery" prices are falling towards ZERO CORE INFLATION!!! UNLIKE ANY PRIOR RECOVERY!!!
COme on BEN, you can't have it both ways.....do we have a canary for inflation or are we allowed to TAKE OUT FOOD AND ENERGY (how crazy is that?) to show a picture not seen in decades.....fear of DEFLATION?
Are we in the doggone SWEET SPOT....or more like the wet spot?
Duratek
US $ BREAKS BELOW 2011 LOWS
TReasuries catching a bid, Arms set ro RESET in coming months, expect FED to do all it can to hold rates down even as Chinese have been net SELLERS of US TREASURIES.
GOLD holds above $1,400 and along with other commodities are making fresh highs also calling out inflation.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
GOLD AND THE US $
Gold was $680 in 2009, then the new resident genius Bernanke, goes the Greenspan route and raises him by lowering to 0%....gold has doubled from there...way to go Big Ben Bag Of Hot Air.
I coined phrase PONZINOMICS, that's what we have going here. Let's make it impossible to make any money on savings, so those poor bastards have to put their money in risky assets to make any gains......folks we are in return of principal times, not let's run to risky asset times.
Let's run up the FED balance sheet and let's pile on more historic govt debt and that's the way we get to prosperity times....excuse me...piling more debt on top of the already putrid debt....can you actually spend your way to prosperity?
I have many smart friends, they have all turned bullish. I don't mind that, you make money going up and maybe coming down, but I mean they REALLY turned bullish and think this is start of something wonderful like it really reflects what is happening in the real world.
I am castigated and disparaged for thinking this is all a mirage, that it is a house of cards, a glass house....a smoke screen...what us wrong with me.
Duratek
"I'm Gonna PUMP YOU UP"
The avg guy and his wife might be spending $100- $150 a week 0n gas....or more...hopefully they don't smoke too!
Simon Johnson "Geithner's Gamble" excerpt
LOS ANGELES –" In a recent interview, United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner laid out his view of the nature of world economic growth and the role of the US financial sector. It is a deeply disturbing vision, one that amounts to a huge, uninformed gamble with the future of the American economy – and that suggests that Geithner remains the senior public official worldwide who is most in thrall to the self-serving ideology of big banks."
Martin Feldstein sees a day where China no longer has a trade surplus and that could be trouble."
Doug's "Monetray Disorder"
"But the makings for a serious inflation problem seem to become more cohesive by the week. Global central bankers are determined to bring new meaning to the term “behind the curve,” which connotes eventual “hard landings.”
Friday, February 25, 2011
THIEF IN THE NIGHT
WHy should I care what the Federal Reserve is doing or how gov't policies affect me? IT's me and it's also US, how it affects us.
I think if a person has saved up some HARD EARNED cash, hoping this will do for retirement, that they won't find it worth a LOT LESS than anticipated because it got ravaged by inflation caused by the excessive debt and deficits of our government, and the printing and low 0% rates of the Federal Reserve....the foisting of the $TRILLIONS in bad bets from Financial Institutions onto the balance sheets of the people.
I mean I could buy gold, could have bought gold, but most people do not understand it, and it isn't very liquid. Most don't know how to buy gold, and you can't buy anything directly with it.
It has risen from $300 to about $1,400 in last 10 years. IT has NO DEBTS against it.....for thousands of years it has been real money.....what we use now PAPER FIAT currency ONLY has value because the Gov't says it does, because other accept it as payment for debts....
But the main reason you don't see inflation running so hot it turns you into vapor trail, is because most of that HOT MONEY is sitting with the banks, it is not being loaned out...
ADJ M BASE is now at its highest level in history in what looks to me a PARABOLIC VAULT....take a look for yourself with link I provided.
The WHOLE idea behind the policies were to revive the housing market, it hasn't done that at all....SO WTF are they continuing with ZIRP? It is KILLING savers, when people deposit money with banks, get interest in return that interest gets spent into economy....that is good....and banks have REAL SAVINGS TO LOAN FOR INVESTMENT...which is good.
What we got in place of sound policy is a bloated BS stock market rally which is the birth of yet another bubble...and it can't stand on its own 2 feet or the FED would STOP PUMPING THE SHIT UP......and is why I KNOW they will have to stop sometime and more than likely we get at least a 50% haircut from THE TOP....if it's SPX 1,400, well see you at 700....and when that happens...won't people AGAIN be looking around, asking wondering what the hell happened.....meanwhile no one will have answers and no one will take blame......the ones who DO KNOW what happened will be off in the night...bedding down with their fortunes....stolen from the people.
Duratek
I think if a person has saved up some HARD EARNED cash, hoping this will do for retirement, that they won't find it worth a LOT LESS than anticipated because it got ravaged by inflation caused by the excessive debt and deficits of our government, and the printing and low 0% rates of the Federal Reserve....the foisting of the $TRILLIONS in bad bets from Financial Institutions onto the balance sheets of the people.
I mean I could buy gold, could have bought gold, but most people do not understand it, and it isn't very liquid. Most don't know how to buy gold, and you can't buy anything directly with it.
It has risen from $300 to about $1,400 in last 10 years. IT has NO DEBTS against it.....for thousands of years it has been real money.....what we use now PAPER FIAT currency ONLY has value because the Gov't says it does, because other accept it as payment for debts....
But the main reason you don't see inflation running so hot it turns you into vapor trail, is because most of that HOT MONEY is sitting with the banks, it is not being loaned out...
ADJ M BASE is now at its highest level in history in what looks to me a PARABOLIC VAULT....take a look for yourself with link I provided.
The WHOLE idea behind the policies were to revive the housing market, it hasn't done that at all....SO WTF are they continuing with ZIRP? It is KILLING savers, when people deposit money with banks, get interest in return that interest gets spent into economy....that is good....and banks have REAL SAVINGS TO LOAN FOR INVESTMENT...which is good.
What we got in place of sound policy is a bloated BS stock market rally which is the birth of yet another bubble...and it can't stand on its own 2 feet or the FED would STOP PUMPING THE SHIT UP......and is why I KNOW they will have to stop sometime and more than likely we get at least a 50% haircut from THE TOP....if it's SPX 1,400, well see you at 700....and when that happens...won't people AGAIN be looking around, asking wondering what the hell happened.....meanwhile no one will have answers and no one will take blame......the ones who DO KNOW what happened will be off in the night...bedding down with their fortunes....stolen from the people.
Duratek
PROTRACTED DECLINE UNDERWAY
SUMMATION index peaked in 2009 ! and as you can see has been making lower highs.
"Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator derived the McClellan Oscillator, which is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values"
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"Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator derived the McClellan Oscillator, which is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values"
% stocks above 50 DMA peaked in OCT, since then the market keeps chugging higher, but the NYAD 50R makes lower highs. I see LAX short term demand, low volume on rallys, high volume on the declines, IMHO the bullishness didn't even get dented by this weeks events and decline.....and IMHO the decline that started this week is just getting going.....
D
CONTRACTION OF TOTAL BANK LOANS
After some recovery the path is back to contraction. NOT in the history of this data was there a VISABLE contraction
Thursday, February 24, 2011
THE COST OF IGNORANCE
WASHINGTON –" Government-controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac managed a narrower loss of $1.7 billion for the October-December quarter of last year. But it has asked for an additional $500 million in federal aid — up from the $100 million it sought in the previous quarter.
Freddie Mac also posted a $19.8 billion loss for all of 2010.
The government rescued Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae in September 2008 to cover their losses on soured mortgage loans. It estimates the bailouts will cost taxpayers as much as $259 billion.
Freddie Mac's October-December loss attributable to common stockholders works out to 53 cents a share. It takes into account $1.6 billion in dividend payments to the government. It compares with a loss of $7.8 billion, or $2.39 a share, in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The company said the recovery of the housing market is still fragile. (what recovery?)
"As we begin 2011, the housing recovering remains vulnerable to high levels of unemployment, delinquencies and foreclosures," Chief Executive Charles Haldeman said in a statement. "We expect national home prices to decline this year as housing will continue to take some time to recover."
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee about half of all mortgages in the U.S., or nearly 31 million home loans worth more than $5 trillion. Along with other federal agencies, they played some part in almost 90 percent of new mortgages over the past year."
Freddie Mac also posted a $19.8 billion loss for all of 2010.
The government rescued Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae in September 2008 to cover their losses on soured mortgage loans. It estimates the bailouts will cost taxpayers as much as $259 billion.
Freddie Mac's October-December loss attributable to common stockholders works out to 53 cents a share. It takes into account $1.6 billion in dividend payments to the government. It compares with a loss of $7.8 billion, or $2.39 a share, in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The company said the recovery of the housing market is still fragile. (what recovery?)
"As we begin 2011, the housing recovering remains vulnerable to high levels of unemployment, delinquencies and foreclosures," Chief Executive Charles Haldeman said in a statement. "We expect national home prices to decline this year as housing will continue to take some time to recover."
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee about half of all mortgages in the U.S., or nearly 31 million home loans worth more than $5 trillion. Along with other federal agencies, they played some part in almost 90 percent of new mortgages over the past year."
SECRETS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Friend clued me onto this reference and I searched and found this recounting of FED action right before the Crash of 1929
"The New York World" said on that occasion:
"Criticism of Federal Reserve Board policy by many investors is not based on its attempt to deflate the stock market, but on the charge that the Board itself, by last year's policy, is completely responsible for such stock market inflation as exists."
Currently the FEDERAL RESERVE policies are doing the same thing as what preceded the last great depression. It is directly responsable for the market speculation and has made sure nary a hole exists for reasonable return on your money other than risky speculation.
There easy money, low rate policy led to the very financial crisis we find our selves in, not many seem to understand this
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"The New York World" said on that occasion:
"Criticism of Federal Reserve Board policy by many investors is not based on its attempt to deflate the stock market, but on the charge that the Board itself, by last year's policy, is completely responsible for such stock market inflation as exists."
Currently the FEDERAL RESERVE policies are doing the same thing as what preceded the last great depression. It is directly responsable for the market speculation and has made sure nary a hole exists for reasonable return on your money other than risky speculation.
There easy money, low rate policy led to the very financial crisis we find our selves in, not many seem to understand this
D
CLOSEUP OF TODAYS ACTION
Market never got fully oversold and todays buying was 39% of overall volume, chances remain high that at MINIMUM a test of 1294 lows is in the cards.
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BOTTOM LINE
Trouble is, you cannot TRUST BLS/GOVT data, adjusted for this or that, revised each time to a distorted level. It comes down to the basics....mkt action. That is and will be the voting mechanism of millions even when manipulated.
See the action in context of historic price action.....something is not right, but why should that STOP you from riding this WRONG action for huge gains since March 2009 bottom?
Just as NOW, there are rumblings to take some off table.......but TA hasn't confirmed a turn and trend change...except ST. Saying we have $100 oil, Mid East strife, Euro contagion, world inflation.....slow job growth here, etc etc one could argue there is your wall of worry? USA has DYNAMIC economy but it is still hampered, hindered by excessive debt, govt deficits, and a banking system that has tightened std's where even 800 scores dont get money without fight, where HUGE portion of HOME SOLD are to speculators buying foreclosures.
To say the least there is much to be concerned about, and one might be sweet spot on this ride is turning sour and more picky picks and caution is order of day.
Duratek
See the action in context of historic price action.....something is not right, but why should that STOP you from riding this WRONG action for huge gains since March 2009 bottom?
Just as NOW, there are rumblings to take some off table.......but TA hasn't confirmed a turn and trend change...except ST. Saying we have $100 oil, Mid East strife, Euro contagion, world inflation.....slow job growth here, etc etc one could argue there is your wall of worry? USA has DYNAMIC economy but it is still hampered, hindered by excessive debt, govt deficits, and a banking system that has tightened std's where even 800 scores dont get money without fight, where HUGE portion of HOME SOLD are to speculators buying foreclosures.
To say the least there is much to be concerned about, and one might be sweet spot on this ride is turning sour and more picky picks and caution is order of day.
Duratek
US $ SAFE HAVEN?
WHy has it weakened since Mid East strife beagn and mainly Euro, Swiss Franc and GOLD/SILVER catching bid?
My blog recieving much greater visits when turmoil exists.....why not stick around and see what I have to say BEFORE such trouble erupts?
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My blog recieving much greater visits when turmoil exists.....why not stick around and see what I have to say BEFORE such trouble erupts?
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WAS MY CALL ON ALU CORRECT?
If we get cross of MA's and they are both desecending, I think that GAP gets filled....MIGHT be worth a look after that
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GOOD NEW< BAD NEWS
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) --" Home prices are down but sales are up, somewhat contradictory trends.
Home prices fell nearly 6% during the six months ended Dec. 31, sending values to their lowest levels in the post-bubble period, S&P/Case-Shiller reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing Foreclosures are falling - but it's a fake out 30% of mortgages are underwater
"At least it's not a double whammy where both sales and prices are dropping," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group. "Deals are getting done."
That's because 26% of all homes sold last year were foreclosures and short sales, according to a RealtyTrac report released on Thursday. That's down slightly from 2009, but a jump compared to 2010."
OIL TOPS $100........this decline has farther to go IMHO. This may be the ONE we have been looking for and warning about.
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Home prices fell nearly 6% during the six months ended Dec. 31, sending values to their lowest levels in the post-bubble period, S&P/Case-Shiller reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing Foreclosures are falling - but it's a fake out 30% of mortgages are underwater
"At least it's not a double whammy where both sales and prices are dropping," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group. "Deals are getting done."
That's because 26% of all homes sold last year were foreclosures and short sales, according to a RealtyTrac report released on Thursday. That's down slightly from 2009, but a jump compared to 2010."
OIL TOPS $100........this decline has farther to go IMHO. This may be the ONE we have been looking for and warning about.
D
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
TROUBLED BANKS RISE TO 18 YEAR HIGH
WASHINGTON (AP) --" The number of banks at risk of failing made up nearly 12 percent of all federally insured banks in the final three months of 2010, the highest level in 18 years.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Wednesday that the number of banks on its confidential "problem" list rose to 884 in the October-December quarter, up from 860 in the previous quarter. Those are banks rated by examiners as having very low capital cushions against risk.
Twenty-two banks have failed so far this year. And more banks are at risk, even as the FDIC reported the industry's highest earnings as a group since the financial crisis hit three years ago. "
Follow through selling today shows sellers are getting more itchy. Any lessening in Middle Easttension could soothe markets for the ST
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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Wednesday that the number of banks on its confidential "problem" list rose to 884 in the October-December quarter, up from 860 in the previous quarter. Those are banks rated by examiners as having very low capital cushions against risk.
Twenty-two banks have failed so far this year. And more banks are at risk, even as the FDIC reported the industry's highest earnings as a group since the financial crisis hit three years ago. "
Follow through selling today shows sellers are getting more itchy. Any lessening in Middle Easttension could soothe markets for the ST
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"HORSHAM, Pa. (AP) -- Toll Brothers Inc. posted a surprise profit for its fiscal first quarter, helped by a larger tax benefit and a higher average price for its homes.
The nation's largest builder of luxury homes said that while the market "is still tough," it sees improvements "in many places."
Toll Brothers had net income of $3.4 million, or 2 cents per share, for the quarter ended Jan. 31. That compares with a loss of $40.8 million, or 25 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast a loss of 8 cents per share.
The quarter included a $20.4 million tax benefit compared with a $16 million tax benefit a year ago.
*Without EXTRA $4.4 MILLION "tax benefit" compared to prior year they lose money
Revenue climbed 2 percent to $334."
The nation's largest builder of luxury homes said that while the market "is still tough," it sees improvements "in many places."
Toll Brothers had net income of $3.4 million, or 2 cents per share, for the quarter ended Jan. 31. That compares with a loss of $40.8 million, or 25 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast a loss of 8 cents per share.
The quarter included a $20.4 million tax benefit compared with a $16 million tax benefit a year ago.
*Without EXTRA $4.4 MILLION "tax benefit" compared to prior year they lose money
Revenue climbed 2 percent to $334."
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
LATE UPDATE
Today was confirmed as a 90% down volume day, where down volume was 93% of total up and down volume.
More importantly to us, total volume on the NYSE rose by a whopping 38% over Fridays.
IMHO, the market will try and shrug this off, we will see the normal 2-7 days rally, but it won't go anywhere and dont expect to see new highs.....then the decline will resume.
Lots of fluff and pomp has been priced into this bloated market....
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More importantly to us, total volume on the NYSE rose by a whopping 38% over Fridays.
IMHO, the market will try and shrug this off, we will see the normal 2-7 days rally, but it won't go anywhere and dont expect to see new highs.....then the decline will resume.
Lots of fluff and pomp has been priced into this bloated market....
D
VIEW OF TODAYS ACTION
Selling was STEADY all day long, transports were off 3% plus as well. You can see when VIX rallies, stocks do not. ONE DAY WONDER? I don't think so, but if today was 90% down volume, some 2-7 day snap attempt may ensue
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WHAT IS FALLING FROM THE SKIES?
It's that same idiot running around with an open bag of potato chips on the beach while we lay there just trying to get some sun, peace and quiet and every damn seagull from a mile away comes calling.....and we don't have a darn umbrella....
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"midnight shopping on the brInk of poverty"
WALMART PHENOM STORY AT NPR
You know what you know, what you want to know, what they want you to know, but do you know what you need to know?
I have been trying to lay the framework so my readers at least know who is behind them....
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You know what you know, what you want to know, what they want you to know, but do you know what you need to know?
I have been trying to lay the framework so my readers at least know who is behind them....
D
Home prices near 2009 lows -- and may fall more
Home prices near 2009 lows -- and may fall more
ALL these policies, stimulus, FED intervention were SUPPOSED to prop up financial system and help housing recover. What we got was a bailout of the system foisted onto the public and a housing market NOT recovering.
When someone asks what my problem is, I wonder if they see the world I see. The stock market SHOULD have recovered from the selling that ended in arch of 2009, but not to these levels, and not stocks nor housing can stand on own 2 feet ONLY difference is housing is back to 2009 lows…..
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ALL these policies, stimulus, FED intervention were SUPPOSED to prop up financial system and help housing recover. What we got was a bailout of the system foisted onto the public and a housing market NOT recovering.
When someone asks what my problem is, I wonder if they see the world I see. The stock market SHOULD have recovered from the selling that ended in arch of 2009, but not to these levels, and not stocks nor housing can stand on own 2 feet ONLY difference is housing is back to 2009 lows…..
D
WMT PUNISHED
So is TARGET....targeted for selling....2 HUGE retailers and BOTH NOT UPSCALE.....hmmmm
General stocks selling off, VIX pops above 20 and is just under 200 MA. TOO early to say if this decline is one day wonder or kick off to someting more invloved
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HOW SMART EVERYONE SEEMS TO THINK THEY ARE
"5:35AM Delcath receives refusal to file letter from FDA (DCTH) 11.30 : Co announces that it received a "refusal to file" letter from the FDA for the New Drug Application for its proprietary chemosaturation system used in the treatment of patients with metastatic melanoma in the liver through the percutaneous intra-arterial administration of melphalan hydrochloride."
Just this THursday at Seeking aplha
2/17
"I believe Delcath Systems will have their NDA accepted sometime the last week of February of 2011 with the request for priority review. This will cast DCTH into the spotlight as opinions and rumors will circulate at a feverish pace pertaining to buyout, FDA approval and company worth."
"Both stocks are up over 100% since our initial coverage on them and we believe pending news out of both of these companies will further dictate positive price action in 2011. "
Made Motley FOOLS stock watch needless to say Delcath is getting a HAIRCUT this morning.....cancer cures are one of most popular ways speculators like to GAMBLE their dough.
"Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, posted a seventh straight quarterly sales decline at its U.S. stores, falling short of its own projections for the holiday period.
Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year fell 1.8 percent in the quarter ended Jan. 28, Wal-Mart said in a statement today. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke said in October that U.S. comparable sales would be “positive.” Analysts projected a 0.2 percent drop, on average, according to a Bloomberg survey."
WalMart same store sales open more than year fell MORE than expected.....on your favorite brainless TV MSM show they atribute it to something WMT did wrong....not any problem with Consumer....of course WMT'S fav consumers are those who may not give 2 hoots about stocks advances and maybe more on the value of their homes and can they get a job.
Todays futures weakness points to a red open, only thing matters to me is what kind of selling we get, stay tuned. Blame it on a NZ earthquake, Mid East unrest or rise in oil prices.....take your pick.....will zombie investors get a glimpse of what happens when one mindlessly follows the herd?
LASTLY
CASE SHILLER FALLS MORE THAN EXPECTED....darn how those "experts" get fooled and confused. HOW strong can the US economy BE without HOUSING coming along?????????? WMT same store sales fall for 7th straight month.....g-d bless the LITTLE PEOPLE forgotten......G-D BLESS FED and govt policies aimed ONLY at inflation of shit and assets.....say a prayer for the 70% who sit on the beach while the idiot with potato chips attracts every seagull in a miles stretch of beach to fly over their heads....
Duratek
Just this THursday at Seeking aplha
2/17
"I believe Delcath Systems will have their NDA accepted sometime the last week of February of 2011 with the request for priority review. This will cast DCTH into the spotlight as opinions and rumors will circulate at a feverish pace pertaining to buyout, FDA approval and company worth."
"Both stocks are up over 100% since our initial coverage on them and we believe pending news out of both of these companies will further dictate positive price action in 2011. "
Made Motley FOOLS stock watch needless to say Delcath is getting a HAIRCUT this morning.....cancer cures are one of most popular ways speculators like to GAMBLE their dough.
"Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, posted a seventh straight quarterly sales decline at its U.S. stores, falling short of its own projections for the holiday period.
Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year fell 1.8 percent in the quarter ended Jan. 28, Wal-Mart said in a statement today. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke said in October that U.S. comparable sales would be “positive.” Analysts projected a 0.2 percent drop, on average, according to a Bloomberg survey."
WalMart same store sales open more than year fell MORE than expected.....on your favorite brainless TV MSM show they atribute it to something WMT did wrong....not any problem with Consumer....of course WMT'S fav consumers are those who may not give 2 hoots about stocks advances and maybe more on the value of their homes and can they get a job.
Todays futures weakness points to a red open, only thing matters to me is what kind of selling we get, stay tuned. Blame it on a NZ earthquake, Mid East unrest or rise in oil prices.....take your pick.....will zombie investors get a glimpse of what happens when one mindlessly follows the herd?
LASTLY
CASE SHILLER FALLS MORE THAN EXPECTED....darn how those "experts" get fooled and confused. HOW strong can the US economy BE without HOUSING coming along?????????? WMT same store sales fall for 7th straight month.....g-d bless the LITTLE PEOPLE forgotten......G-D BLESS FED and govt policies aimed ONLY at inflation of shit and assets.....say a prayer for the 70% who sit on the beach while the idiot with potato chips attracts every seagull in a miles stretch of beach to fly over their heads....
Duratek
Monday, February 21, 2011
GANN TIME CYCLES
He wrote that "the first year of a decade, year one, is the year to look for a bear campaign to end and a bull market to begin." the chartist
I am expecting the market to again peak in the March-April time frame. We can only asess ANY selling after the fact to see if anything has changed with THE TREND
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I am expecting the market to again peak in the March-April time frame. We can only asess ANY selling after the fact to see if anything has changed with THE TREND
D
Sunday, February 20, 2011
WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET.....BUT
demand for mortgages have sagged to a 27 month low, worse than at 2009 bottom. we have hit NEW RECORD of those needing government assistance, 30% owe more on their home than it's worth, inflation is heating up yet policies of ZERO rates by FED have not helped housing and yet they persist.... still got some work to do. I am BULLISH Stk mkt, BEARISH economy....I won't make mountain out of cremation remains.
If 7 of the last 8 recoveries were led by housing, and for good reason, what leads this one?
All anecdotes of people shopping, blah blah, are always there, but what DRIVES this "recovery".
If you cannot answer anything other than fiscal and historic FED intervention, don't bother. history tells us how that ends up.
BULL mkt in stocks, I'm not blind or dumb, enough to still ask why.
Duratek
If 7 of the last 8 recoveries were led by housing, and for good reason, what leads this one?
All anecdotes of people shopping, blah blah, are always there, but what DRIVES this "recovery".
If you cannot answer anything other than fiscal and historic FED intervention, don't bother. history tells us how that ends up.
BULL mkt in stocks, I'm not blind or dumb, enough to still ask why.
Duratek
Saturday, February 19, 2011
WORLD UNREST BUT
My opinions and worries are valid, but if you put RECORD FED stimulus, never seen before into mkt, you SHOULD get some wild shit..... as long as rates are held at 0%, Money mkts and safe havens are toast, people are FORCED to play the game.
It is the forced and RECORD intervention part that tell me most likely this is not a 20 year bull, but interlude.....fact SPX 400 and others at NEW Highs, not sure how to work that into long term bear scenario......except THEY have turned everything on its head. THIS, what we are witnessing did not happen on its own, so my guess is some even more unsavory imbalances are building only to top and pop down the road.
And the VERY Thing needing assistance and resuscitation, HOUSING....stands at bottom of the worst it was, with little upside movement noticeable.
D
It is the forced and RECORD intervention part that tell me most likely this is not a 20 year bull, but interlude.....fact SPX 400 and others at NEW Highs, not sure how to work that into long term bear scenario......except THEY have turned everything on its head. THIS, what we are witnessing did not happen on its own, so my guess is some even more unsavory imbalances are building only to top and pop down the road.
And the VERY Thing needing assistance and resuscitation, HOUSING....stands at bottom of the worst it was, with little upside movement noticeable.
D
Friday, February 18, 2011
NEW BULL MARKET OR BEAR MARKET RALLY?
"Housing led the U.S. out of seven of the last eight recessions. This time, it may kill the recovery.
Home sales collapsed after a federal tax credit for buyers expired in April. Since then, the manufacturing-led expansion, which began in the second half of 2009, has been waning, with jobless claims rising and factory orders falling."
"The new adjusted monetary base, adjusted total reserves and adjusted nonborrowed reserves time series are chain indexes created in segments. Major changes in the structure of reserve requirements demarcate the beginning and end of segments, and are the reason why these are calculated as chain indexes. The reserve adjustment magnitude, or RAM, "adjusts" the monetary base for changes in the demand for base money due to changes in statutory reserve requirement ratios within a given structure of reserve requirements (where the structure defines the types of deposits that are reservable, perhaps by class or type of depository institution), conditional on an assumed model of depository institutions' demand for base money; see Burger and Rasche (1977) and Anderson and Rasche (1996a). When there is a major change in the structure of reserve requirements - such as the extension of reserve requirements to nonmember banks and thrifts under the Monetary Control Act - carrying the same RAM across the break is inappropriate. Rather, the old RAM should end and a new RAM start. During periods both before and after the break, for example, the AMB equals the sum of the monetary source base and a RAM - but not the same RAM before and after the break.
Adjusted Monetary Base
The adjusted monetary base equals the sum of the monetary source base and an appropriate RAM adjustment."
I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG THEY CAN KEEP THEM MIRAGE AND LIE OF RECOVERY FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, BUT IMHO I AM ISSUING A VERY CRITICAL AND STERN WARNING THAT WHEN THIS DOES END, A SECULAR BEAR WILL RETURN WITH DEVESTATING RESULTS IF ONE IS NOT PREPARED.
D
Home sales collapsed after a federal tax credit for buyers expired in April. Since then, the manufacturing-led expansion, which began in the second half of 2009, has been waning, with jobless claims rising and factory orders falling."
The purple line shows Consumer's "PRESENT SITUATION", do YOU see a flippin rally there? Each prior RISE you see led to BULL MKT TOPS....but rise it did aggresively...Consumers felt good...they spent.
BULLS ALMOST DOUBLE BEARS IN AAII POLL.
Consumer Metrics Institute Index does not line up with thebullish stock market sentiment
You've got to see this ADJ Monetary Base RAMP JOB!
BY definition
"The new adjusted monetary base, adjusted total reserves and adjusted nonborrowed reserves time series are chain indexes created in segments. Major changes in the structure of reserve requirements demarcate the beginning and end of segments, and are the reason why these are calculated as chain indexes. The reserve adjustment magnitude, or RAM, "adjusts" the monetary base for changes in the demand for base money due to changes in statutory reserve requirement ratios within a given structure of reserve requirements (where the structure defines the types of deposits that are reservable, perhaps by class or type of depository institution), conditional on an assumed model of depository institutions' demand for base money; see Burger and Rasche (1977) and Anderson and Rasche (1996a). When there is a major change in the structure of reserve requirements - such as the extension of reserve requirements to nonmember banks and thrifts under the Monetary Control Act - carrying the same RAM across the break is inappropriate. Rather, the old RAM should end and a new RAM start. During periods both before and after the break, for example, the AMB equals the sum of the monetary source base and a RAM - but not the same RAM before and after the break.
Adjusted Monetary Base
The adjusted monetary base equals the sum of the monetary source base and an appropriate RAM adjustment."
I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG THEY CAN KEEP THEM MIRAGE AND LIE OF RECOVERY FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, BUT IMHO I AM ISSUING A VERY CRITICAL AND STERN WARNING THAT WHEN THIS DOES END, A SECULAR BEAR WILL RETURN WITH DEVESTATING RESULTS IF ONE IS NOT PREPARED.
D
SHUT UP FOOL
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that unbalanced flows of money between nations is again posing a risk to the global economy and financial stability.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 YEARS MAKE
Of course from 2002-2007 we have a once in lifetime BUILDING BOOM BUBBLE, then burst.......WHERE IS THE BOOM/BUBBLE THIS TIME?....GOV'T AND FED DEBT......all boom/BUBBLES BURST
Duratek
NFLX
That is one over bought mutha.....man if sellers ever got control that's a LONG WAY DOWN without much support IMHO....just keep buying cause they're going up?D
COPPER AT NEW HIGHS
With hosuing industry DORMANT, how can copper be making fresh highs? and calls from FED inflation is low?
D
BEARISH...BUT
Thinking on a breakout it could run to $17...back of mind STILL expect general pullback, but more eyes on this.....recent action all above 40 week encouraging.
Also stalking ALU on break above $4.95 and hold........and lots of other stuff, didn't want you to think I am only way way Wayne......always something popping and I trust my TA.....
D
IS THERE INFLATION?
Ask yourself, China is going to compute their differently now that inflation is kicking up, so it appears in their data reports that inflation is UNDER CONTROL, their model will be MORE like the BLS in the US of A, giving MUCH less importance to food and energy....what a novel idea.
Claims jump to 410,000......some EW'ers see a WAVE 5 top in place....not so sure about that...
D
Claims jump to 410,000......some EW'ers see a WAVE 5 top in place....not so sure about that...
D
AM NEWS
Eurozone Construction Output Continues To Drop In December
ino.com
Eurozone construction output fall quickened in December, as bad weather conditions derailed activities in all reported member nations except Slovenia. Germany saw the fastest monthly decline of 24.1% in the final month of 2010 and output fell 4.1% in France
ino.com
Eurozone construction output fall quickened in December, as bad weather conditions derailed activities in all reported member nations except Slovenia. Germany saw the fastest monthly decline of 24.1% in the final month of 2010 and output fell 4.1% in France
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
MIRACLES OF THE NEW NORMAL
I’ve given it some thought and here’s what I come up with. We are IN the NEW NORMAL, in the NEW NORMAL job creation will not go as planned or look like the old normal, which wasn’t like the other normal from 2003-2007 known as “The Jobless recovery”. If THAT 2003-2007 period was called the jobless recovery, what is this one called? “The Disappearing Job Recovery?”
Off shored and shipped out and globalized, many lost jobs are not coming back, and for the new IT and Globalization jobs, we got plenty of competition for those. There is a hungry 3rd world and Asian population thirsty and starving for the good life.
Maybe the stock market is telling us we have “A” Recovery, but it’s job is not to tell us what kind of Recovery it is, that is for us to figure out, because if it ever decides, it wasn’t as great as it seemed, there is plenty of downside to cover and bullishness to be corrected.
Rising costs due to commodities is causing all kinds off FOOD CHAIN price increases, and it’s really in the CPI and PPI no matter what the figures actually show. Back to back near 1% monthly gains in PPI point to near 12% yr/yr Producer inflation, no one is talking, no one is asking the right questions.
Its stupid to argue there is NO inflation. When the stuff that goes into making EVERYTHING is at or near record highs…..if producers cannot pass along the costs it will affect profits.
Healthcare reform? Health Care costs are THROUGH THE ROOF, will policies begin to come down in price? NO
Did we need to extend the Bush tax cuts? NO! Is it important that we shave $100 B a year from government budgets? When we increase them by 15%? When budget deficits are soaring to $1.5 TRILLION and no end in sight. ALL this money has to be borrowed. WILL THE FED continue to be borrower of first and last resort? Isn’t there some limit to this game?
ZIRP policy DISTORTS and DEFILES a free market system and does major damage to allowing money and investment to flow where it is needed the most.
A rising stock market makes us feel better, but it pales to what was lost in value for homeowners. But this is the strategy of the Federal Reserve, they have made it there policy and aim to RAISE ASSET PRICES…..sorry, bull markets are great when they are not MAN MADE. When they are not made from the free market system that spanks bad investment and rewards good investment…..putting magnates on the roulette wheel is not a true fix.
Companies will not hire like before, and with the majority of who lost their jobs still without jobs, a full 2 years plus into recovery, and after a 90% historic stock V shaped rally, all of a sudden companies will splurge on hiring?
What do all those unemployed use for Consumer spending? We have this wonderful recovery but at the same time we now have RECORD amount of Americans NEEDING and getting government assistance. ADD to that anywhere above $75B to maybe $90B added to economy from those deciding to NOT PAY their mortgages (strategic defaults).
At the same time the AVG American has most of their wealth tied up in their homes, the avg price of a home is still falling and sales and construction are VERY NEAR The worst it ever was…..not even the most WILD EYED BULLISH enthusiast could look at housing charts and tell me different. So we printed our way and added debt to an already unmanageable pile and that is how we reach prosperity?
We have a recovery, but you must be one who has a job to appreciate that.
What should be of some importance is have we built something sustainable? If your BEDROCK is a banking system hiding losses or a debt that JUST got shifted from the Banks to the PEOPLE……when accounting standards have changed in such a way as Today’s financial reporting of profits is not anything like previous to the GAO change and suspension of Mark To Market (which then OVER STATES PROFITS)…….when the too big to fail banks are now bigger than ever before……and government just keeps getting BIGGER and SPENDS MORE and MORE we don’t have…..I say we got some work to do.
It has and always has been about NOT PAYING THE PIPER……there’s always another election to push off important topics or real needed change…..or telling it like it is to the American Public, that there are NO FREE LUNCHES….someone has to pay…I guess let the insiders and lobbyists figure it out.
In the meantime, I am marketing a cream that eases the discomfort from those rub marks on your ankles caused by continuous grabbing…..I don’t give a shoot, I’m going to be rich!
The policy of LOW BOTTOM 1% interest rates fueled the last crisis and proved the FED hasn’t MUCH of a clue, and that led to the worst financial crisis since THE GREAT DEPRESSION. Instead of healing from that, instead of letting the market sort things out…..the FED stepped in again with some NEW FINANCIAL ENGINEERING, lowered rates to 0% this time and have held them there for a historic period of time…….adding new never before tested tools like TARP and QE I and 2 and who knows what else. Countless $trillions of stimulus, and gobs of gov’t debt….and all I got was this crummy T-SHIRT!....”CASTLES MADE OF SAND…. SLIP INTO THE SEA……EVENTAULLY”
Off shored and shipped out and globalized, many lost jobs are not coming back, and for the new IT and Globalization jobs, we got plenty of competition for those. There is a hungry 3rd world and Asian population thirsty and starving for the good life.
Maybe the stock market is telling us we have “A” Recovery, but it’s job is not to tell us what kind of Recovery it is, that is for us to figure out, because if it ever decides, it wasn’t as great as it seemed, there is plenty of downside to cover and bullishness to be corrected.
Rising costs due to commodities is causing all kinds off FOOD CHAIN price increases, and it’s really in the CPI and PPI no matter what the figures actually show. Back to back near 1% monthly gains in PPI point to near 12% yr/yr Producer inflation, no one is talking, no one is asking the right questions.
Its stupid to argue there is NO inflation. When the stuff that goes into making EVERYTHING is at or near record highs…..if producers cannot pass along the costs it will affect profits.
Healthcare reform? Health Care costs are THROUGH THE ROOF, will policies begin to come down in price? NO
Did we need to extend the Bush tax cuts? NO! Is it important that we shave $100 B a year from government budgets? When we increase them by 15%? When budget deficits are soaring to $1.5 TRILLION and no end in sight. ALL this money has to be borrowed. WILL THE FED continue to be borrower of first and last resort? Isn’t there some limit to this game?
ZIRP policy DISTORTS and DEFILES a free market system and does major damage to allowing money and investment to flow where it is needed the most.
A rising stock market makes us feel better, but it pales to what was lost in value for homeowners. But this is the strategy of the Federal Reserve, they have made it there policy and aim to RAISE ASSET PRICES…..sorry, bull markets are great when they are not MAN MADE. When they are not made from the free market system that spanks bad investment and rewards good investment…..putting magnates on the roulette wheel is not a true fix.
Companies will not hire like before, and with the majority of who lost their jobs still without jobs, a full 2 years plus into recovery, and after a 90% historic stock V shaped rally, all of a sudden companies will splurge on hiring?
What do all those unemployed use for Consumer spending? We have this wonderful recovery but at the same time we now have RECORD amount of Americans NEEDING and getting government assistance. ADD to that anywhere above $75B to maybe $90B added to economy from those deciding to NOT PAY their mortgages (strategic defaults).
At the same time the AVG American has most of their wealth tied up in their homes, the avg price of a home is still falling and sales and construction are VERY NEAR The worst it ever was…..not even the most WILD EYED BULLISH enthusiast could look at housing charts and tell me different. So we printed our way and added debt to an already unmanageable pile and that is how we reach prosperity?
We have a recovery, but you must be one who has a job to appreciate that.
What should be of some importance is have we built something sustainable? If your BEDROCK is a banking system hiding losses or a debt that JUST got shifted from the Banks to the PEOPLE……when accounting standards have changed in such a way as Today’s financial reporting of profits is not anything like previous to the GAO change and suspension of Mark To Market (which then OVER STATES PROFITS)…….when the too big to fail banks are now bigger than ever before……and government just keeps getting BIGGER and SPENDS MORE and MORE we don’t have…..I say we got some work to do.
It has and always has been about NOT PAYING THE PIPER……there’s always another election to push off important topics or real needed change…..or telling it like it is to the American Public, that there are NO FREE LUNCHES….someone has to pay…I guess let the insiders and lobbyists figure it out.
In the meantime, I am marketing a cream that eases the discomfort from those rub marks on your ankles caused by continuous grabbing…..I don’t give a shoot, I’m going to be rich!
The policy of LOW BOTTOM 1% interest rates fueled the last crisis and proved the FED hasn’t MUCH of a clue, and that led to the worst financial crisis since THE GREAT DEPRESSION. Instead of healing from that, instead of letting the market sort things out…..the FED stepped in again with some NEW FINANCIAL ENGINEERING, lowered rates to 0% this time and have held them there for a historic period of time…….adding new never before tested tools like TARP and QE I and 2 and who knows what else. Countless $trillions of stimulus, and gobs of gov’t debt….and all I got was this crummy T-SHIRT!....”CASTLES MADE OF SAND…. SLIP INTO THE SEA……EVENTAULLY”
Duratek
GUESS THEY DIDNT ASK THIS CLOWN?
"STOCK MARKET RALLIES ON SURGE IN HOME BUILDING" can'tmake this stuff up
WHERE DOES THE RUBBER MEET THE ROAD?
CAPACITY UTE BARELY AT PRIOR BEAR MARKET RECESSION LOWS
(why is stock market rally one of 2 best in history?)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PEAKS? is now contracting.
(why is stock market rally one of 2 best in history?)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PEAKS? is now contracting.
"Apartments push home construction up in January"
PPI flew .8% after rising .9% prior month....but of course BERNANKE says not to worry about inflation....remember Ben we're DUMB not STUPID
D
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
YIELD CURVE FLATTENS
Eduardo askswill rate go up?
Rates ARE going up, but it all depends on the time frame you look. The monthly trend intact for almost 30 years is falling rates.
Currently, there are NOT TOO MANY BOND BULLS to be found, some polls in single digits....that usually gets corrected.
Rates are above a rising 200 DMA which is bullish for higher yields.
If stocks ever do sell off rates usually fall as safe haven......but HOW SAFE are bonds at current levels?
LOOK atthe MOVE on the 2 year bond! in 3 months from.33% to .84% !! that's huge....andmay be warning of inflation even as BLS GVT data may suggest otherwise or what Bernanke may say.....
D
"THE COGNITIVE DISSONANCE OF IT ALL"
link to Kyle Bass at HAyman Capital FEB investor letter. Scribd site
I love this " Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen they they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
Til my voice goes, we are not witnessing the beginning of a new age of growth and prosperity.....I wish we were, but an upsurge from a beaten down bottom that anything would look better.
Where did all that DEBT go? from THEM to US!!
D
I love this " Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen they they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
Til my voice goes, we are not witnessing the beginning of a new age of growth and prosperity.....I wish we were, but an upsurge from a beaten down bottom that anything would look better.
Where did all that DEBT go? from THEM to US!!
D
BRAZIL FOR REFLATION PROXY
EWC did find suspport at the 200 day as I sugessted, but to me this chart looks "toppy" and will remain on high alert monitoring.
D
Monday, February 14, 2011
VIX AS A TOOL TO DETERMINE BULL OR BEAR MARKETS
We are currently in a BULL MKT, the VIX can lay dormant along a very low level for some time before it signals a change of trend. There is no need for guesswork. I use weekly charts for this and feel it more reliable.
In a sterile manipulated environment, I am not sure what will work and what won't. Will we just keep going up no matter what? Will the market fall ahrd without warning?
IMHO, that will be hard to do, fear will turn its tail UP, and hopefully give investors who listen TIME as it did here in 2007. The BUY signal shown here wasn't half bad either
D
HON INDUSTRIES SALES RECOVERY....OR IS IT?
Headlines (HNI sells office furniture and harth products)
2010 results
HNI SALES CLIMB 19.9% in 4th qtr 2010 (sounds good right?)
sales were $466.1 MILLION 4th qtr
Fiscal 2010 sales $1.7 Billion (wow!)
Now reality
2007 Sales results
4th QTR $668 MILLION
Fiscal 2007 sales were $2.6 Billion
There’s your recovery
2010 results
HNI SALES CLIMB 19.9% in 4th qtr 2010 (sounds good right?)
sales were $466.1 MILLION 4th qtr
Fiscal 2010 sales $1.7 Billion (wow!)
Now reality
2007 Sales results
4th QTR $668 MILLION
Fiscal 2007 sales were $2.6 Billion
There’s your recovery
"REPUTATION RISK"
From the Editors of American Banker (free 2 week trial available)
"Reputation Risk from Foreclosures Jolts MBS Trustee Banks to Act
Bad: When a newspaper ridicules your CEO for wrongful foreclosures.
Worse: When the foreclosure was initiated by another company.
Maddening: When even top executives at the bank don't realize that — and blame your department.
That's the situation Lee Mitau, U.S. Bancorp's general counsel and an executive vice president, found himself in last month. "
"Reputation Risk from Foreclosures Jolts MBS Trustee Banks to Act
Bad: When a newspaper ridicules your CEO for wrongful foreclosures.
Worse: When the foreclosure was initiated by another company.
Maddening: When even top executives at the bank don't realize that — and blame your department.
That's the situation Lee Mitau, U.S. Bancorp's general counsel and an executive vice president, found himself in last month. "
A POP AND A DROP
HAWK and BORDERS FILING BANKRUPTCY (hawk getting major haircut) BUT HERO POPS
Seahawk's Pain is Hercules' Gain
"There's also some boom and bust news in the off-shore oil sector today: Seahawk Drilling will seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and sell 20 rigs to Hercules Offshore for $100 million. HAWK plunges 62 percent in the premarket on the move, but HERO is up 19 percent following positive comments from analysts at Weeden and Jefferies. "
In 2007 BGP was over $23 a share.
D
Seahawk's Pain is Hercules' Gain
"There's also some boom and bust news in the off-shore oil sector today: Seahawk Drilling will seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and sell 20 rigs to Hercules Offshore for $100 million. HAWK plunges 62 percent in the premarket on the move, but HERO is up 19 percent following positive comments from analysts at Weeden and Jefferies. "
In 2007 BGP was over $23 a share.
D
COST AN "ARM AND A LEG!"
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- "Adjustable rate mortgages are back!
After accounting for nearly 70% of all mortgages issued during the boom, ARMs vanished during the bust, totaling just 3% of the market in 2009. Now they make up 5% of all mortgages issued, and Freddie Mac predicts 10% by December.
Other stories at link
Foreclosure Fiasco
ARMs helped sink the economy - now they're back!
Foreclosures are falling - but it's a fake out
30% of mortgages are underwater
Whose house is being saved by Obama?
Las Vegas: Still the foreclosure king
Behind the comeback is a simple fact: ARMs are a great bargain right now. The most common ARM loan currently has a rate of 3.5% compared to 5% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
"For anyone with a high likelihood of moving soon, the 5/1 is a great product," said Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association. "It's a well understood product too; there's not a lot of danger with it."
I'm so glad that the GSE'S see adj rate mortgages rising to 10% of their new products in the near future....do these idiots ever learn?
Do you wonder why the FED is targeting the stock market for appreciation? because they are incapable of doing much more, 30% of mortgages held are underwater? that is staggering figure...FED policy or Obama promises helping them out?
Let's see, the most basic rule that markets follow is SUPPLY AND DEMAND. We have record need to issue debt, we have dwindling interest from abroad in our debt. FED BALANCE SHEETS ARE BLOATED and are buyers of first and last resort.
You know what really ticks me off? Is the constant bullish banter, even from my inner circle group of market pros. Now, maybe it's just me, but the current situation and backdrop disgusts me, and I don't see the same thing the stock market portrays....what I see is a system run amok, savers getting raped, and the average American is bent over holding their ankles....and I'll continue to speak out, and tell it like it is (or at least how I see it) til I cannot anymore.
Duratek
After accounting for nearly 70% of all mortgages issued during the boom, ARMs vanished during the bust, totaling just 3% of the market in 2009. Now they make up 5% of all mortgages issued, and Freddie Mac predicts 10% by December.
Other stories at link
Foreclosure Fiasco
ARMs helped sink the economy - now they're back!
Foreclosures are falling - but it's a fake out
30% of mortgages are underwater
Whose house is being saved by Obama?
Las Vegas: Still the foreclosure king
Behind the comeback is a simple fact: ARMs are a great bargain right now. The most common ARM loan currently has a rate of 3.5% compared to 5% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
"For anyone with a high likelihood of moving soon, the 5/1 is a great product," said Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association. "It's a well understood product too; there's not a lot of danger with it."
I'm so glad that the GSE'S see adj rate mortgages rising to 10% of their new products in the near future....do these idiots ever learn?
Do you wonder why the FED is targeting the stock market for appreciation? because they are incapable of doing much more, 30% of mortgages held are underwater? that is staggering figure...FED policy or Obama promises helping them out?
Let's see, the most basic rule that markets follow is SUPPLY AND DEMAND. We have record need to issue debt, we have dwindling interest from abroad in our debt. FED BALANCE SHEETS ARE BLOATED and are buyers of first and last resort.
You know what really ticks me off? Is the constant bullish banter, even from my inner circle group of market pros. Now, maybe it's just me, but the current situation and backdrop disgusts me, and I don't see the same thing the stock market portrays....what I see is a system run amok, savers getting raped, and the average American is bent over holding their ankles....and I'll continue to speak out, and tell it like it is (or at least how I see it) til I cannot anymore.
Duratek
FREE LUNCH IS OVER
"Clothing prices to rise 10 pct starting in spring "
"The era of falling clothing prices is ending. But as the world economy recovers and demand for goods rises, a surge in labor and raw materials costs is squeezing retailers and manufacturers who have run out of ways to pare costs."
NOPE, NO INFLATION BEN! Highest prices for fuel in Winter ever....NOPE NO INFLATION must be roaring economy!
Unemployment falls to 9% a drop of .8% in 2 months, one of the fastest decline in history....MUST BE STOKED ECONOMY? NOPE record amounts giving up and falling off the rolls or SNOWED IN.
DEMAND for our bonds keeps falling, FED balance sheet has bulged to $2.5 TRILLION! BUT bullish % for US Treasuries is in single digits.....some kind of rally is imminent.....and if yields catch a bid, that should coincide with a stock market decline.
Duratek
"The era of falling clothing prices is ending. But as the world economy recovers and demand for goods rises, a surge in labor and raw materials costs is squeezing retailers and manufacturers who have run out of ways to pare costs."
NOPE, NO INFLATION BEN! Highest prices for fuel in Winter ever....NOPE NO INFLATION must be roaring economy!
Unemployment falls to 9% a drop of .8% in 2 months, one of the fastest decline in history....MUST BE STOKED ECONOMY? NOPE record amounts giving up and falling off the rolls or SNOWED IN.
DEMAND for our bonds keeps falling, FED balance sheet has bulged to $2.5 TRILLION! BUT bullish % for US Treasuries is in single digits.....some kind of rally is imminent.....and if yields catch a bid, that should coincide with a stock market decline.
Duratek
Sunday, February 13, 2011
TRANSITIONING PERIOD?
AS investors or traders we must navigate these waters like we did or better than 2003-2007 period. I took myself out in 2000, and did not lose any long position during 2 Bear periods, but as we see, sometimes you must take what FED gives you, and if a good company gets cheap you buy it....that doesn't mean you won't sell it later....we have to make money in good times and bad, that is the difference between us and lets say strictly LTBH vlaue investors which someone churped to me about how good they are, BILL MILLER(Legg Mason Value Trust) was G-D too until the BEar markets showed he could get killed too.
There's nothing wrong with being bullish or bearish, just some periods you have to step aside if nothing less.
http://lowryresearch.com/ This has been my most trusted, respected sub for market data, I have recently let my sub lapse as it is very expensive.....but if we break down nuts and bolts of JUST MARKET ACTION, then we want to see accurate picture of supply and demand.
Here's what I can say, The market exhibits the stats of a bull market, and the early phases of buying has extended maybe twice as long as avg bull....there you can buy almost anything and make money.
But in phase 2 of 3, investors get much more picky and we have seen market breadth deteriorate over the last 30 days as it appears people are less willing to chase, and maybe more willing to sell....this could very well be just a short term phenom as we both know tops are usually made as all those on sidelines watching can;t resist anymore.....the very time the incrowd picks up their selling....AKA bagholders.
MANY argue rising, near historic SPX profits, they would be correct, however this is tainted with GAO END TO MARK TO MARKET replaced with fantasy earnings....
Bullishness at 2007 peak. VIX below 16, but until it changes to rising trend it is signalling complacency, not bear mkt.....the GROUNDWORK IS SET FOR A SERIOUS CORRECTION of at least 3-5% IMHO
RIGGED MKT.....rises almost every MOnday.....Business is still being done, but jobs are not plentiful, has their been a secular shift in hiring?
The INternet creates opportunity, but it also hurts local merchants and costs jobs, when will FREE RISE of NO TAX ON PURCHASES BE OVER?....how much revenue has gov't just given away?
BIG holes in what govt takes in and what goes out...TAXES WILL RISE.
Highest FUEL costs in history for FEB....this is another tax and eats up tax cut.
Strategic defaults by one measure add $90B a year in consmer spending.
SPX 400 MID CAPS AT ALL TIME NEW HIGHS....many not far behind.....when will FED TAKE FOOT OFF GAS? CPI manipulated here, so they do as they want.
SAVERS RAPED! A MILLION $'s gets you $100 of MM interest, who forgot SAVERS SPEND interest payments, they cannot do so now....RISK IS ONLY GAME....and that tells me RISK IS NOW IN EVERYTHING YOU CAN BUY....when the music ends in this PONZI MUSICAL CHAIR GAME....that could later than sooner, but it will come.....the rally isn't consistant with real life on the main street data I see and hear.
In conclusion the market is close to transitioning into the next phase of this bull market, and I suspect it will get narrower foucs and many will find it harder to make gains......
D
There's nothing wrong with being bullish or bearish, just some periods you have to step aside if nothing less.
http://lowryresearch.com/ This has been my most trusted, respected sub for market data, I have recently let my sub lapse as it is very expensive.....but if we break down nuts and bolts of JUST MARKET ACTION, then we want to see accurate picture of supply and demand.
Here's what I can say, The market exhibits the stats of a bull market, and the early phases of buying has extended maybe twice as long as avg bull....there you can buy almost anything and make money.
But in phase 2 of 3, investors get much more picky and we have seen market breadth deteriorate over the last 30 days as it appears people are less willing to chase, and maybe more willing to sell....this could very well be just a short term phenom as we both know tops are usually made as all those on sidelines watching can;t resist anymore.....the very time the incrowd picks up their selling....AKA bagholders.
MANY argue rising, near historic SPX profits, they would be correct, however this is tainted with GAO END TO MARK TO MARKET replaced with fantasy earnings....
Bullishness at 2007 peak. VIX below 16, but until it changes to rising trend it is signalling complacency, not bear mkt.....the GROUNDWORK IS SET FOR A SERIOUS CORRECTION of at least 3-5% IMHO
RIGGED MKT.....rises almost every MOnday.....Business is still being done, but jobs are not plentiful, has their been a secular shift in hiring?
The INternet creates opportunity, but it also hurts local merchants and costs jobs, when will FREE RISE of NO TAX ON PURCHASES BE OVER?....how much revenue has gov't just given away?
BIG holes in what govt takes in and what goes out...TAXES WILL RISE.
Highest FUEL costs in history for FEB....this is another tax and eats up tax cut.
Strategic defaults by one measure add $90B a year in consmer spending.
SPX 400 MID CAPS AT ALL TIME NEW HIGHS....many not far behind.....when will FED TAKE FOOT OFF GAS? CPI manipulated here, so they do as they want.
SAVERS RAPED! A MILLION $'s gets you $100 of MM interest, who forgot SAVERS SPEND interest payments, they cannot do so now....RISK IS ONLY GAME....and that tells me RISK IS NOW IN EVERYTHING YOU CAN BUY....when the music ends in this PONZI MUSICAL CHAIR GAME....that could later than sooner, but it will come.....the rally isn't consistant with real life on the main street data I see and hear.
In conclusion the market is close to transitioning into the next phase of this bull market, and I suspect it will get narrower foucs and many will find it harder to make gains......
D
BULLISH MOMENTUM
BOSTON (AP) --" There's another sign that investors' confidence is returning: Last month they added money to U.S. stock mutual funds at the fastest clip in seven years. The year-opening surge also marked the first time in nine months that investors added more than they withdrew.
All told, investors deposited a net $21.3 billion to U.S. stock funds in January, the biggest monthly increase since a net inflow of $23 billion in February 2004, industry consultant Strategic Insight said Friday."
All told, investors deposited a net $21.3 billion to U.S. stock funds in January, the biggest monthly increase since a net inflow of $23 billion in February 2004, industry consultant Strategic Insight said Friday."
Saturday, February 12, 2011
OBAMA LOSING GRASS ROOTS SUPPORT
"After the fall elections, McConnell was criticized for saying his No. 1 goal was to make Obama a one-term president. But he later worked with the president to push through an extension of Bush administration tax cuts, including for top-earners."
I have talked to some of the MOST ARDENT OBAMA supporters, the word "sellout" comes to mind and they once singed his praises, he could do all andno wrong, now he is utter dissapointment....yeah a sellout to his core supporters.
I am a Republican, I did not want extension of all of the Bush tax cuts, we couldn't afford them nor will they help economy......who among you ar shit happy you will keep more of your dividend payouts?.....you must not be insider
D
I have talked to some of the MOST ARDENT OBAMA supporters, the word "sellout" comes to mind and they once singed his praises, he could do all andno wrong, now he is utter dissapointment....yeah a sellout to his core supporters.
I am a Republican, I did not want extension of all of the Bush tax cuts, we couldn't afford them nor will they help economy......who among you ar shit happy you will keep more of your dividend payouts?.....you must not be insider
D
MY MOST BULLISH AND BEARISH FORECAST EVER
I am going to do a lot of homework over this weekend. I am readying my tactical plans, but first I see a 3-5% correction imminent that should give a much better entry point....stocks above their 50DMA continues to diverge from the new highs. Egyptian "euphoria" is out of the way, now back to reality.....normal is rallies that get way ahead of themselves, as this one has IMHO.
Then......it is my focus to be on emerging mkts, especially China....and especially if the 2009 highs are bettered. In 2003 bull it wasnt until LATE 2005 that China exploded in a parabolic fashion....with rising int rates IMHO the sentiment has been dampened enough to lay the groundwork for a bullish outcome.
Some things never change. Parallel MA'S (especially weekly of the 10/40 kind) that move together are a CLEAR signal of the market voting mechanism, when rising one above the other it is unmistakingly BULLISH. PERIOD. Calling a top or bottom, requires much more attention and TA, but for purpose of a trend, there is NOTHING better.
ONLY when these MA'S reverse course CROSS, then begin to diverge Parallel downward do we have confirmation that the voting machine has cast its vote for a bear market. PERIOD You cannot have bull without the rising MA's, you cannot have BEAR without falling MA's....not the 5/ 20 day kind.
Now this will not tell you that a top is here.....not trying to do that......and depending on the amount of buying and selling, like in 2009, the cross will come way too late to be helpful, everything has exceptions, but ONCE TREND GETS ESTABLISHED s it has been.....the MA'S will confirm every single time....each share bought or sold is a vote.
NOW, in our current situation, we are getting NO HELP from interest rates, and this is one of my reasons for seeing this s cyclical bull. Long term rates YES rising, but because of HUGE DEBT requirements.....wouldn't you think supply and demand would take hold, I do. BUT THE FED FUNDS RATE HELD AT 0% for 2 PLUS YEARS, that is ANYTHNG but BULLISH......that is the essence of BEARISH...WHY? because FED FUNDS RISE WHEN ECONOMY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO HANDLE THEM......RISING RATES ARE BULLISH!!! (even if initial reaction may cause selling).
FED FUNDS FALLING IS BEARISH, WHY? because economy is WEAK and cannot stand on its own.....sell into falling rates.....BUT AT SOME POINT, THIS WILL ALMOST ALWAYS OCCUR when rates have reached the bottom of move (1% in 2003, 0% in 2009)..........the don't fight the FED scenario will finally play out, as those BOTTOM CATFISH RATES begin to work their magic, by then FEAR has swarmed over would be bargain hunter, and only the in crowd begins to buy. AS the FED finally began raising rate
in 2003 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5333876/.....THAT WAS signal bull was oN!!!!
NOTICE falling rates in 2000 (BEAR) rising rates (2003) BULL.!!!
BUT what's different this time friends? RATES ARE STAYING at 0% for a historic period of time.....I CANNOT interpret this as BULLISH BY ANY SCENARIO!!!! not by any historic measure or experience.
FED ACTION is then fostering probably the greatest, most dangerous BUBBLE of our lifetimes and this bull maybe only chance to prepare for its arrival.
FROM "NO EXITS" CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
"Indeed, I would argue strongly that not until the government finance Bubble bursts will it be possible to comprehend the true costs of the ongoing mortgage crisis. The scope of this problem won’t really be appreciated until today’s extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus has run its course; not until market yields are left to adjust to less government intrusion and intervention; not until inflated U.S. income levels are weaned from massive government expenditures; not until the requisite restructuring of the U.S. economy is on course; and not until private Credit is able to make inroads into market-based home lending.
The Administration and congress are content to delay a timely exit from massive fiscal stimulus, fearing the economy might fall right back into recession. The Fed is also content, worried of what an exit from quantitative easing would mean for a marketplace that must muster the necessary liquidity to fund intractable federal deficits at low interest rates. And I believe all of Washington is content to defer any meaningful mortgage finance reform until they perceive that housing markets have recovered. Yet it will take years – and a huge increase in government-backed mortgage Credit – to revitalize our nation’s housing markets. And this is why I refer to – and worry greatly about - the unfolding government (Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the GSEs) finance Bubble.
Returning to Mr. Dimon’s comments from above, my guess is that the head of JPMorgan and many other persons of influence have similar thoughts about rapidly expanding Federal obligations as they did previously with the GSEs. As we witnessed with Fannie and Freddie, the powers that be will not intervene to repress a Bubble, especially when it is viewed as providing near-term benefits and rather nebulous longer-term risks. I have no doubt that there will be more crisis committees, inquests, and reports. There will be additional questions about Fannie, Freddie, and new issues with the FHA and unmanageable federal debt. I expect similar answers: “We all knew about it, we all worried about it, no one did anything about it.”
HOW can the GSE's be cut loose? there is NO private lending for mortgages!!!! the heroine addict is hopelessly addicted to guarantees.
NOW TO VIX......a falling VIX is BULLISH, RISING VIX BEARISH....very simple if you get trend correctly. even at 15 the VIX is signalling BULL MKT. Not until it hit SINGLE DIGITS last bull did it reach a level, that one would HAVE to consider exit strategy.....and not confirmed until it began bearish rising pattern.
That's my story and Im sticking to it, NO matter where you say it started, in 1974 or 1982, stocks hits all time highs in 2007, NOW just 2 years after bear ended, some indexes are at NEW ALL TIME HIGHS....and the favs are close behind....did the greatest bull mkt in history never end?
Then......it is my focus to be on emerging mkts, especially China....and especially if the 2009 highs are bettered. In 2003 bull it wasnt until LATE 2005 that China exploded in a parabolic fashion....with rising int rates IMHO the sentiment has been dampened enough to lay the groundwork for a bullish outcome.
Some things never change. Parallel MA'S (especially weekly of the 10/40 kind) that move together are a CLEAR signal of the market voting mechanism, when rising one above the other it is unmistakingly BULLISH. PERIOD. Calling a top or bottom, requires much more attention and TA, but for purpose of a trend, there is NOTHING better.
ONLY when these MA'S reverse course CROSS, then begin to diverge Parallel downward do we have confirmation that the voting machine has cast its vote for a bear market. PERIOD You cannot have bull without the rising MA's, you cannot have BEAR without falling MA's....not the 5/ 20 day kind.
Now this will not tell you that a top is here.....not trying to do that......and depending on the amount of buying and selling, like in 2009, the cross will come way too late to be helpful, everything has exceptions, but ONCE TREND GETS ESTABLISHED s it has been.....the MA'S will confirm every single time....each share bought or sold is a vote.
NOW, in our current situation, we are getting NO HELP from interest rates, and this is one of my reasons for seeing this s cyclical bull. Long term rates YES rising, but because of HUGE DEBT requirements.....wouldn't you think supply and demand would take hold, I do. BUT THE FED FUNDS RATE HELD AT 0% for 2 PLUS YEARS, that is ANYTHNG but BULLISH......that is the essence of BEARISH...WHY? because FED FUNDS RISE WHEN ECONOMY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO HANDLE THEM......RISING RATES ARE BULLISH!!! (even if initial reaction may cause selling).
FED FUNDS FALLING IS BEARISH, WHY? because economy is WEAK and cannot stand on its own.....sell into falling rates.....BUT AT SOME POINT, THIS WILL ALMOST ALWAYS OCCUR when rates have reached the bottom of move (1% in 2003, 0% in 2009)..........the don't fight the FED scenario will finally play out, as those BOTTOM CATFISH RATES begin to work their magic, by then FEAR has swarmed over would be bargain hunter, and only the in crowd begins to buy. AS the FED finally began raising rate
in 2003 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5333876/.....THAT WAS signal bull was oN!!!!
NOTICE falling rates in 2000 (BEAR) rising rates (2003) BULL.!!!
BUT what's different this time friends? RATES ARE STAYING at 0% for a historic period of time.....I CANNOT interpret this as BULLISH BY ANY SCENARIO!!!! not by any historic measure or experience.
FED ACTION is then fostering probably the greatest, most dangerous BUBBLE of our lifetimes and this bull maybe only chance to prepare for its arrival.
FROM "NO EXITS" CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
"Indeed, I would argue strongly that not until the government finance Bubble bursts will it be possible to comprehend the true costs of the ongoing mortgage crisis. The scope of this problem won’t really be appreciated until today’s extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus has run its course; not until market yields are left to adjust to less government intrusion and intervention; not until inflated U.S. income levels are weaned from massive government expenditures; not until the requisite restructuring of the U.S. economy is on course; and not until private Credit is able to make inroads into market-based home lending.
The Administration and congress are content to delay a timely exit from massive fiscal stimulus, fearing the economy might fall right back into recession. The Fed is also content, worried of what an exit from quantitative easing would mean for a marketplace that must muster the necessary liquidity to fund intractable federal deficits at low interest rates. And I believe all of Washington is content to defer any meaningful mortgage finance reform until they perceive that housing markets have recovered. Yet it will take years – and a huge increase in government-backed mortgage Credit – to revitalize our nation’s housing markets. And this is why I refer to – and worry greatly about - the unfolding government (Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the GSEs) finance Bubble.
Returning to Mr. Dimon’s comments from above, my guess is that the head of JPMorgan and many other persons of influence have similar thoughts about rapidly expanding Federal obligations as they did previously with the GSEs. As we witnessed with Fannie and Freddie, the powers that be will not intervene to repress a Bubble, especially when it is viewed as providing near-term benefits and rather nebulous longer-term risks. I have no doubt that there will be more crisis committees, inquests, and reports. There will be additional questions about Fannie, Freddie, and new issues with the FHA and unmanageable federal debt. I expect similar answers: “We all knew about it, we all worried about it, no one did anything about it.”
HOW can the GSE's be cut loose? there is NO private lending for mortgages!!!! the heroine addict is hopelessly addicted to guarantees.
NOW TO VIX......a falling VIX is BULLISH, RISING VIX BEARISH....very simple if you get trend correctly. even at 15 the VIX is signalling BULL MKT. Not until it hit SINGLE DIGITS last bull did it reach a level, that one would HAVE to consider exit strategy.....and not confirmed until it began bearish rising pattern.
That's my story and Im sticking to it, NO matter where you say it started, in 1974 or 1982, stocks hits all time highs in 2007, NOW just 2 years after bear ended, some indexes are at NEW ALL TIME HIGHS....and the favs are close behind....did the greatest bull mkt in history never end?
*(Let me add this, we don't find stats like this in an enduring new economic expansion, certainly one wouldn't think......new highs in people needing govt assistance, 9% unemployment but where it fell in 2 months from 9.8%, a record move, and both Obama and Bernanke tell us that's "VERY OPTMISTIC", but if we look deeper we find the DROP was caused by those "leaving the rolls...dropping off". And inside the calls on LOW INFLATION, we find soaring prices for food and energy across the world......so any wage gains, meager as they might be are eaten alive)
IT IS UNLIKELY that in such a short period, we corrected 30 PLUS years of bullish extremes....NO FED Intervention now 2nd and most historic in nature has interrupted nature from taking its course......each time a STRONG cyclical bull erupted maybe INSIDE a secular bull, who knows....but the malinvestments and adjustments have not been made....and FED policy is fostering maybe the biggest bubble of them all, and we know historically it will end in horror and abject pain, count on it. YOU DONT fix a debt bubble....with exceedingly more debt
Friday, February 11, 2011
BULL AND BEAR
As long as the 10 and 40 WEEK MA'S are both rising....and they are....no bear sighting....the VOTES are for higher prices.....until they aren't
D
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