So here we are, now well into 2014 and the S&P500, Dow, and Transports are at new all time record highs. Only the Utility Index has been lagging behind, diverging can we say. Not much to worry about , right?
It's not my place to recommend stocks , or if you should be long or not. All I can doesn't lay out the landscape I see and ponder what might be next. I can see a SPX at 2200 by years end, or I can also see a top to market InThe Sept/ Oct timeframe. But even at new highs, the market is a beneficiary of the FEDS money printing schemes. And those who keep bidding the market higher feel invincible to any serious decline. The FEAR,or the wall of worry to climb don't exist.
The moves have been beyond historic, in 2009 the Transports were at 2100, now near 8,000. ThereHas never been another 5 year period like this.
All good things do finally come to an end, and I still believe that a large part of this bull mkt will be retraced.
On this weekend, my last thoughts go out to all those who have friends or family in the military and to those who have lost someone in battle . Thank you to all those who fight for our freedom and who have the ultimate sacrifice.
D
Sunday, May 25, 2014
Saturday, May 03, 2014
Musical Chairs Continue
"I see ample ongoing confirmation of the “Granddaddy of all Bubbles” thesis. The stock market is reminiscent of 1999 – except today’s excesses are more broadly based (and the risks much greater!)
But with central banks still pumping and speculators still leveraging, the mirage of unending cheap liquidity (and central bank backstops!) ensures everyone buoyantly dances the night away. I’m convinced that the ’08/‘09 crisis would have been less damaging had markets begun discounting the changing environment back when subprime first faltered in early-2007. Instead, Fed accommodation spurred another year of “terminal phase” excess and attendant distortions.
These days, “accommodation” doesn’t do justice to ongoing unprecedented monetary stimulus, which ensures that manic equities and Credit markets completely disregard major fundamental changes in the global landscape. China doesn’t matter. Ukraine and Russia don’t matter. A conspicuously underperforming U.S. economy doesn’t matter. The approaching end to QE doesn’t matter. An alarmingly deteriorating geopolitical environment doesn’t matter. As they say, “It doesn’t matter until it does.” Yet, through it all, don’t lose track of an important fact: They all matter – and together they will matter a great deal. "
But with central banks still pumping and speculators still leveraging, the mirage of unending cheap liquidity (and central bank backstops!) ensures everyone buoyantly dances the night away. I’m convinced that the ’08/‘09 crisis would have been less damaging had markets begun discounting the changing environment back when subprime first faltered in early-2007. Instead, Fed accommodation spurred another year of “terminal phase” excess and attendant distortions.
These days, “accommodation” doesn’t do justice to ongoing unprecedented monetary stimulus, which ensures that manic equities and Credit markets completely disregard major fundamental changes in the global landscape. China doesn’t matter. Ukraine and Russia don’t matter. A conspicuously underperforming U.S. economy doesn’t matter. The approaching end to QE doesn’t matter. An alarmingly deteriorating geopolitical environment doesn’t matter. As they say, “It doesn’t matter until it does.” Yet, through it all, don’t lose track of an important fact: They all matter – and together they will matter a great deal. "
http://www.prudentbear.com/2014/05/serial-booms-and-busts.html#.U2Tn5dq9KSM
As Doug writes, nothing matters until it does. There is no fear in the market and no options for investors.
D
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
