WASHINGTON – The country spiraled deeper into recession to start 2009, forcing widespread cutbacks and layoffs among everyone from blue-collar workers who once churned out construction equipment to white-collar professionals like business consultants and accountants.
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot of business activity nationwide, released Wednesday, showed the economic picture darkening over the last two months and revealed little hope for a quick turnaround.
Ten of the 12 fed regions said economic activity worsened, while the Philadelphia and Chicago districts said economies "remained weak."
"National economic conditions deteriorated further," the Fed's survey concluded. "The deterioration was broadbased, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions."
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
NOT GOOD SIGN
LArgest mid market office furniture manufacturer, new LOW WOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFF less employees, less need for furniture..... This stock HAD in past led down and up year or more in advance......ominous market has yet to RESPOND to actions, 90% declines and oversold. We seem "DUE" for decent rally...so far thet et SOLD so can;'t take holdD
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
A MESSAGE OF HOPE "THE PHOENIX WILL RISE AGAIN"
*(welcome to all my new readers, my google analytics show me traffic here has hit its highest since I started 4 years ago.....)
BEAR MARKETS are major destructive forces. And they help to bring things back into order, help to correct the previous expansions excesses and helps to rat out the creeps, like MAdoff.
We are witnessing a "not your ordinary" bear market. There is still potential for additional severe losses. Using forward 12 months SPX earnings, dividend yields, PE Ratios and technical analysis I can safely surmise the BOTTOM is not IN YET, all IMHO of course.
Think of all the companies laid to waste, all the financial and insurance firms, the retail stores like Circuit City, the auto companies, home builders, shippers, Fannie Mae and housing in general. Las VEgas is suffering. PEOPLE all over the world are suffering.
But know this, from this devestation, the stage will be set for a REBIRTH. And if one can time it decent enough MAYBE the buys of a lifetime.
With lots of comeptitors knocked out there will be room for growth again. I just don't know WHEN.
I see the potential for SPX 300-400,
The key to this is....... SURVIVING it, To not be loaded down with DEBT, to have raised cash to have lived within your means.
SIMPLE TA could have helped avoid disaster. Most opinions uselss, news uselss. TV useless.
WE cannot live like each day is our last, but like each day is the beginning of the next and we have a future and all is not lost.
But the preceding excesses were so great, mighty have fallen, there is lots to be done and this has to work itself out. IT is possible GOV can make it worse and they aren't answer to everything.
This is something that cannot be fought, it needs to burn itself out. We are FAR closer to its end then from its beginning.
Good luck and best to all
DUratek
BEAR MARKETS are major destructive forces. And they help to bring things back into order, help to correct the previous expansions excesses and helps to rat out the creeps, like MAdoff.
We are witnessing a "not your ordinary" bear market. There is still potential for additional severe losses. Using forward 12 months SPX earnings, dividend yields, PE Ratios and technical analysis I can safely surmise the BOTTOM is not IN YET, all IMHO of course.
Think of all the companies laid to waste, all the financial and insurance firms, the retail stores like Circuit City, the auto companies, home builders, shippers, Fannie Mae and housing in general. Las VEgas is suffering. PEOPLE all over the world are suffering.
But know this, from this devestation, the stage will be set for a REBIRTH. And if one can time it decent enough MAYBE the buys of a lifetime.
With lots of comeptitors knocked out there will be room for growth again. I just don't know WHEN.
I see the potential for SPX 300-400,
The key to this is....... SURVIVING it, To not be loaded down with DEBT, to have raised cash to have lived within your means.
SIMPLE TA could have helped avoid disaster. Most opinions uselss, news uselss. TV useless.
WE cannot live like each day is our last, but like each day is the beginning of the next and we have a future and all is not lost.
But the preceding excesses were so great, mighty have fallen, there is lots to be done and this has to work itself out. IT is possible GOV can make it worse and they aren't answer to everything.
This is something that cannot be fought, it needs to burn itself out. We are FAR closer to its end then from its beginning.
Good luck and best to all
DUratek
Monday, March 02, 2009
USING FIB RETRACEMENTS
*click to enlarge CHARTIs why I think we see a sub 6,000 DOW before this bear is laid to rest, this is one for the history books friends!
D
Saturday, February 28, 2009
NOT YOUR MOTHERS BEAR MARKET
*(comemnts from one of my friends KJ, who is very smart and usualaly dead on his market and economic thoughts)
PS
This is the type of enviornment when the frauds are exposed, and the real deals shine. I can count on one hand those that understood what was happening and helped me to avoid D&D. Everyone I talk to in my life who is in the market is down big, 30-50% and counting, not to mention all the other wealth destruction people have to deal with in terms of business loss, job loss, house contractions etc....
Still long fighting fires , fixing cars and ducking, possibly pithforks and torches after my train ride back from FLa. Massive amounts of Yellow iron, rail cars, trailers all idle, as in huge, along with Jim's idle ship picture a few weeks back. So much for the $TRAN being a meaningless index no ???
I am also amazed at the calm complacency.....at least for now. Hint, hint.
Anyone notice the dow violated very important support this month, and I am not talking 2002, take it back to 1998, was that the 1998 low also ??? Yup, and the flag in 1997 also, 10 year support, gone on a monthly close. What happens when you take out 50% retrace levels of prior bull, like we just did ? Quite possibly .618-2/3 retrace, that is a dow 5 to 6 handle. I can hear the laughs, just like when I mentioned 3 digit spx.. we'll see.
If you look at dow as just 30 stocks, put up spx, wlsh same deal. And while you are at it take a look at some big tech, like MSFT, take it back to 1991 monthly on a chart, what do you see, I see 10 year flags being broken, along with economic clues.
Most tech looks just like msft chart, take that along with NAAD making new lows, not pretty. We are searching for a better economic outlook 6 months out with stocks right ?? And a price that can be supported by earnings right ??? I think the market is voting for a new place to watch the horizon, and it is lower. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, no one knows, but the evidence points lower for now.
**Thanks KJ for such dead on comments
Duratek
PS
This is the type of enviornment when the frauds are exposed, and the real deals shine. I can count on one hand those that understood what was happening and helped me to avoid D&D. Everyone I talk to in my life who is in the market is down big, 30-50% and counting, not to mention all the other wealth destruction people have to deal with in terms of business loss, job loss, house contractions etc....
Still long fighting fires , fixing cars and ducking, possibly pithforks and torches after my train ride back from FLa. Massive amounts of Yellow iron, rail cars, trailers all idle, as in huge, along with Jim's idle ship picture a few weeks back. So much for the $TRAN being a meaningless index no ???
I am also amazed at the calm complacency.....at least for now. Hint, hint.
Anyone notice the dow violated very important support this month, and I am not talking 2002, take it back to 1998, was that the 1998 low also ??? Yup, and the flag in 1997 also, 10 year support, gone on a monthly close. What happens when you take out 50% retrace levels of prior bull, like we just did ? Quite possibly .618-2/3 retrace, that is a dow 5 to 6 handle. I can hear the laughs, just like when I mentioned 3 digit spx.. we'll see.
If you look at dow as just 30 stocks, put up spx, wlsh same deal. And while you are at it take a look at some big tech, like MSFT, take it back to 1991 monthly on a chart, what do you see, I see 10 year flags being broken, along with economic clues.
Most tech looks just like msft chart, take that along with NAAD making new lows, not pretty. We are searching for a better economic outlook 6 months out with stocks right ?? And a price that can be supported by earnings right ??? I think the market is voting for a new place to watch the horizon, and it is lower. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, no one knows, but the evidence points lower for now.
**Thanks KJ for such dead on comments
Duratek
Friday, February 27, 2009
CREDIT MARKET DEBT
Total credit market debt had reached 260% of GDP in 1929, on the eve of the Great Depression. US total credit market debt has doubled over the past five years, alone."BEST MARKET TIMERS REMAIN BULLISH SEPT 2007 !!!
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 (yes folks...so what do we need "experts TIMERS FOR?)
Many investors still fear a bear market, but almost all top market-timing newsletters recommend a heavy weighting of stocks.
NOW WHAT?
The stock market appears to be settling down a bit from the extraordinary volatility that characterized the market in the last half of July and much of August.
This relative calm provides a good opportunity to step back and review the stock-market forecasts of those stock-market timing newsletters that have the best long-term records.
I focus, as I have in prior columns, on a select group of top stock-market timing newsletters. Specifically, my group included the 10 services with the best risk-adjusted market-timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest.
I
have focused on risk-adjusted performance because I didn't want to give undue credit to a newsletter whose raw return was caused by nothing more than a willingness to incur inordinate amounts of risk.
By the way, I went through a similar exercise just over a year ago for Barron's Online. I found at that time that there were no bears among the top market timers, and that the average recommended equity exposure among them was 84%. Since then, needless to say, the stock market has handsomely acquitted these top timers' bullishness: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20% higher today than then.
And I again went through this exercise in early May, discovering then that their average recommended equity exposure was 83%. The DJIA is today about two percentage points higher than where it stood then.
As I did last August and in May, I eliminated one of the 10 top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar.
What follows is a brief synopsis of the current stock-market forecasts of the nine remaining newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. (The newsletters are listed alphabetically.)
• Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's model portfolio is currently 91% invested in equities. Check's equity-valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be slightly undervalued. In his most recent issue (published in late August), Check wrote "the best buying opportunities arise when investors panic. When the market drops 10%, you can be assured bargains will exist."
• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early September, Editor Bob Brinker writes: "A number of market pundits claim that the correction that began in late July was the start of a bear market. We totally disagree with this view. On the contrary, we do not believe a bear market ([defined as an] S&P 500 index decline in excess of 20%) is on the radar screen anytime this year. *(was this a f'ing idiot or what?)We are forecasting the continuation of the ongoing bull market at least into next year, and we anticipate significant stock-market gains going forward." His model portfolios are fully invested.
• Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believes that there is a good possibility that the intraday lows established on Aug. 16 "represented an effective bottom" of the correction that began in July. Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 74% invested currently, and his model mutual-fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
• Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
• Medical Technology Stock Letter: Bullish. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that its track record places it in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is close to being fully invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish, with 200% invested and 100% on margin. Don't try this approach at home.
• No-Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger suspects that the stock-market correction that began in mid-July has longer to run. But, he hastens to add, "I do not expect the corrective period to result in double-digit losses for the market at large….A true bear market continues to seem unlikely for the time being. The underlying positives of strong global growth, mild inflation and interest rates, low unemployment and formidable corporate-cash cushions make a sustained double-digit percentage drop unlikely." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
• Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears. His consensus of the top 10 for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 10 bulls and no bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 91% invested in stocks, on average.
• Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris wrote in his early-September issue: "It has certainly been a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride. But history shows that sharp, short-lived corrections are buying opportunities the majority of the time. They're also among the worst times to sell." Harris continues to rate the intermediate and major trends of the stock market as positive. His model stock portfolios are fully invested.
The bottom line? None of these nine top timers are bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 92%. This is higher than where this average stood a year ago, as well as where it was in early May.
This 92% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the 10 stock-market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is 0%.
In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.
There are no guarantees. But to bet on a new bear market right now, you have to bet against the timers with the best long-term records and with those whose records have been awful.
Mark Hulbert is founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest. He is a senior columnist for MarketWatch.
*** Today.....well my loyal lurkers......we know how this turned out......and you know what I was saying in 2007..
Duratek
Many investors still fear a bear market, but almost all top market-timing newsletters recommend a heavy weighting of stocks.
NOW WHAT?
The stock market appears to be settling down a bit from the extraordinary volatility that characterized the market in the last half of July and much of August.
This relative calm provides a good opportunity to step back and review the stock-market forecasts of those stock-market timing newsletters that have the best long-term records.
I focus, as I have in prior columns, on a select group of top stock-market timing newsletters. Specifically, my group included the 10 services with the best risk-adjusted market-timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest.
I
have focused on risk-adjusted performance because I didn't want to give undue credit to a newsletter whose raw return was caused by nothing more than a willingness to incur inordinate amounts of risk.
By the way, I went through a similar exercise just over a year ago for Barron's Online. I found at that time that there were no bears among the top market timers, and that the average recommended equity exposure among them was 84%. Since then, needless to say, the stock market has handsomely acquitted these top timers' bullishness: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20% higher today than then.
And I again went through this exercise in early May, discovering then that their average recommended equity exposure was 83%. The DJIA is today about two percentage points higher than where it stood then.
As I did last August and in May, I eliminated one of the 10 top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar.
What follows is a brief synopsis of the current stock-market forecasts of the nine remaining newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. (The newsletters are listed alphabetically.)
• Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's model portfolio is currently 91% invested in equities. Check's equity-valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be slightly undervalued. In his most recent issue (published in late August), Check wrote "the best buying opportunities arise when investors panic. When the market drops 10%, you can be assured bargains will exist."
• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early September, Editor Bob Brinker writes: "A number of market pundits claim that the correction that began in late July was the start of a bear market. We totally disagree with this view. On the contrary, we do not believe a bear market ([defined as an] S&P 500 index decline in excess of 20%) is on the radar screen anytime this year. *(was this a f'ing idiot or what?)We are forecasting the continuation of the ongoing bull market at least into next year, and we anticipate significant stock-market gains going forward." His model portfolios are fully invested.
• Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believes that there is a good possibility that the intraday lows established on Aug. 16 "represented an effective bottom" of the correction that began in July. Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 74% invested currently, and his model mutual-fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
• Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
• Medical Technology Stock Letter: Bullish. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that its track record places it in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is close to being fully invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish, with 200% invested and 100% on margin. Don't try this approach at home.
• No-Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger suspects that the stock-market correction that began in mid-July has longer to run. But, he hastens to add, "I do not expect the corrective period to result in double-digit losses for the market at large….A true bear market continues to seem unlikely for the time being. The underlying positives of strong global growth, mild inflation and interest rates, low unemployment and formidable corporate-cash cushions make a sustained double-digit percentage drop unlikely." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
• Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears. His consensus of the top 10 for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 10 bulls and no bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 91% invested in stocks, on average.
• Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris wrote in his early-September issue: "It has certainly been a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride. But history shows that sharp, short-lived corrections are buying opportunities the majority of the time. They're also among the worst times to sell." Harris continues to rate the intermediate and major trends of the stock market as positive. His model stock portfolios are fully invested.
The bottom line? None of these nine top timers are bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 92%. This is higher than where this average stood a year ago, as well as where it was in early May.
This 92% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the 10 stock-market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is 0%.
In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.
There are no guarantees. But to bet on a new bear market right now, you have to bet against the timers with the best long-term records and with those whose records have been awful.
Mark Hulbert is founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest. He is a senior columnist for MarketWatch.
*** Today.....well my loyal lurkers......we know how this turned out......and you know what I was saying in 2007..
Duratek
THERE GOES THE GOOD SHIP LOLLYPOP!
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm IMAGINE GDP WORSE than expected? revised to down 6.2% !!!
I show 15M chart of dbl bottom 752 SPX, forgettaboutit....now 742 was LOWS.....futures POINT to -17 so that's gonna blow
FUGLY............where it ends nobody knows...OBAMA plan seen as tits on a boar....stim dont stim.....taxes rising OMG! entitlements GROWING.....2 sided mouth plan where we haaa CUT the deficit in half by 2012 yet SPENDING GROWS>>>???
GOV spending takes away from private sector, biz spending and investment...imagine the best bitter meds might be kerplop and consumer retrench (aren't they) cut spending, pay down debt.....increase savings.
GOV NO GOOD because my friends....is was HISTORIC EXCESSIVE DEBT that got us into this.....and it IS deflating, unwinding and it's SO BIG nothing can stop it
D
I show 15M chart of dbl bottom 752 SPX, forgettaboutit....now 742 was LOWS.....futures POINT to -17 so that's gonna blow
FUGLY............where it ends nobody knows...OBAMA plan seen as tits on a boar....stim dont stim.....taxes rising OMG! entitlements GROWING.....2 sided mouth plan where we haaa CUT the deficit in half by 2012 yet SPENDING GROWS>>>???
GOV spending takes away from private sector, biz spending and investment...imagine the best bitter meds might be kerplop and consumer retrench (aren't they) cut spending, pay down debt.....increase savings.
GOV NO GOOD because my friends....is was HISTORIC EXCESSIVE DEBT that got us into this.....and it IS deflating, unwinding and it's SO BIG nothing can stop it
D
Thursday, February 26, 2009
OBAMANATION OBAMANOMICS
full story http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/27/us/politics/27web-budget.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw
The budget plan projects the deficit falling to $1.17 trillion in 2010 and down to Mr. Obama’s goal of $533 billion in 2013, then increasing again to $712 billion by 2019. Mr. Obama takes credit for $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, three quarters of which comes from lower expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan and most of the rest from tax increases on the wealthy and revenue from a market-based cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
The forecasts are also founded on optimistic assumptions that the recession will end by next year and quickly produce stronger growth than was seen in the last decade. After the economy shrinks this year, the Obama team assumes that the gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 3.2 percent next year and then 4 percent or more the following three years, a rate nearly twice the average of the Bush years.
F!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this idiot socialist is trying to take the dow to ZERO?
what are ASS UMPTIONS??????? With McCain a loser, and no 3rd party candidate allowed...................BIZ as USUAL is what we're stuck with/
I have NEVER seen a PRES in front of cameras like this one...the campaign is over...so is the party....
MKT no LIKEY! BASSACKWARDIZATION
Duratek
The budget plan projects the deficit falling to $1.17 trillion in 2010 and down to Mr. Obama’s goal of $533 billion in 2013, then increasing again to $712 billion by 2019. Mr. Obama takes credit for $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, three quarters of which comes from lower expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan and most of the rest from tax increases on the wealthy and revenue from a market-based cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
The forecasts are also founded on optimistic assumptions that the recession will end by next year and quickly produce stronger growth than was seen in the last decade. After the economy shrinks this year, the Obama team assumes that the gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 3.2 percent next year and then 4 percent or more the following three years, a rate nearly twice the average of the Bush years.
F!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this idiot socialist is trying to take the dow to ZERO?
what are ASS UMPTIONS??????? With McCain a loser, and no 3rd party candidate allowed...................BIZ as USUAL is what we're stuck with/
I have NEVER seen a PRES in front of cameras like this one...the campaign is over...so is the party....
MKT no LIKEY! BASSACKWARDIZATION
Duratek
15 Minute SPX VIEW
@ click to enlarge752 looming as dbl bottom or last stand ME don'ts like the action, hey jbr you hangin in there?
Today in a NUTSHELL (wall street journal)
Markets continued to swing unpredictably on Thursday, ending lower as health insurers and drug makers sank sharply after the Obama administration unveiled sweeping plans for healthcare reform.
Traders also jockeyed to balance their books heading into the last trading day of the month, which has seen major averages hit fresh bear-market lows.
D
California Unempoyment 9.4%
http://odeo.com/episodes/24121458-Growing-Unemployment-is-Putting-the-Squeeze-on-CA-s-Healthcare-System
Newly unemployed across country are also losing their health care benefits which puts even more stress on our system and a fix.
2/3 of US GOV budget of $3.3Trillion goes to MEdicare and Social Security. Remaining 1/3 is left for DEFENSE and everything else!!!!
SO include INTEREST ON THE US DEBT, and now our deficit is reaching beyond $1 Trillion, all these new GOV programs are adding to the HOLE we are digging.
Can't do nothing you say? Maybe not, but the GOV is crowding OUT the PRIVATE sector for the CREDIT they need to operate and grow.
Long term rates are rising. SO we can monetize the debt too? KEEP RATES LOW?
ONce you become educated, enlightened as towhat is REALLY going on here and there is NO going back......you remain informed, aware, but this unfortunately brings the burdon of knowing....
Tuesday was a 90% UP volume day, WEd no follow thru, could suggest prices need to FALL further before we can declare an END to this BEAR MKT!!
TA will tell us months after it is over it may be safe to test the waters.....but not in real time.
GE may pop back to life, I may regret NOT buying near $9 >????!!!! But this also tells me there may be something horribly wrong here, how bad is their financial arm hurting them?
We are still at oversold readings, more upside may be possible. I do not think BEAR MKT IS OVER IMHO
D
Newly unemployed across country are also losing their health care benefits which puts even more stress on our system and a fix.
2/3 of US GOV budget of $3.3Trillion goes to MEdicare and Social Security. Remaining 1/3 is left for DEFENSE and everything else!!!!
SO include INTEREST ON THE US DEBT, and now our deficit is reaching beyond $1 Trillion, all these new GOV programs are adding to the HOLE we are digging.
Can't do nothing you say? Maybe not, but the GOV is crowding OUT the PRIVATE sector for the CREDIT they need to operate and grow.
Long term rates are rising. SO we can monetize the debt too? KEEP RATES LOW?
ONce you become educated, enlightened as towhat is REALLY going on here and there is NO going back......you remain informed, aware, but this unfortunately brings the burdon of knowing....
Tuesday was a 90% UP volume day, WEd no follow thru, could suggest prices need to FALL further before we can declare an END to this BEAR MKT!!
TA will tell us months after it is over it may be safe to test the waters.....but not in real time.
GE may pop back to life, I may regret NOT buying near $9 >????!!!! But this also tells me there may be something horribly wrong here, how bad is their financial arm hurting them?
We are still at oversold readings, more upside may be possible. I do not think BEAR MKT IS OVER IMHO
D
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS SHARED
Wait wait P….OBAMA plan is highlighting ALT energy…wait a tck! Even the OBVIOUS comes with a VIPER inside the bag
Don’t mean harm BUT Henry TO added insult to injury perhaps..hope its just his money…DYING to be right
Once in lifetime mkt calls for once in lifetime CAUTION
From: P
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
Thanks KJ. My count agrees with your concern.
TAN -8%; FSLR 136 to 110 today. So far.
From: KJ
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
You know, listen to saut comments from yesterday....He is getting hate mail from people who think he was not defensive enough, and they are correct. This market has proved many people with decades under their belt wrong. He mentions we are either days from a tradable rally/bottom, or on the verge of a crash, and I know he is not taking that too seriously. I said to myself yesterday, so far this bear has done all the low probability items on the menue, and really smoked people. I figure the crash senario is higehr probability, it would catch the most off gaurd, and then set up a rally.
Subject: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:07:53 - from D
Allstate (ALL 18.64) cut its quarterly dividend by 51%, blaming weak recent earnings for the change.
Allstate said it will reduce its quarterly dividend to $0.20 from $0.41, payable on April 1, 2009.
WILL this bear show us SPX DIV 6% PE’s at 10?
L fishing for bottom…..STI was not impressive. NO TA to show bottom HOME VALUES and SALES KEEP FALLING WORKERS KEEP GETTING AXE……what bank program will work?
Don’t mean harm BUT Henry TO added insult to injury perhaps..hope its just his money…DYING to be right
Once in lifetime mkt calls for once in lifetime CAUTION
From: P
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
Thanks KJ. My count agrees with your concern.
TAN -8%; FSLR 136 to 110 today. So far.
From: KJ
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
You know, listen to saut comments from yesterday....He is getting hate mail from people who think he was not defensive enough, and they are correct. This market has proved many people with decades under their belt wrong. He mentions we are either days from a tradable rally/bottom, or on the verge of a crash, and I know he is not taking that too seriously. I said to myself yesterday, so far this bear has done all the low probability items on the menue, and really smoked people. I figure the crash senario is higehr probability, it would catch the most off gaurd, and then set up a rally.
Subject: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:07:53 - from D
Allstate (ALL 18.64) cut its quarterly dividend by 51%, blaming weak recent earnings for the change.
Allstate said it will reduce its quarterly dividend to $0.20 from $0.41, payable on April 1, 2009.
WILL this bear show us SPX DIV 6% PE’s at 10?
L fishing for bottom…..STI was not impressive. NO TA to show bottom HOME VALUES and SALES KEEP FALLING WORKERS KEEP GETTING AXE……what bank program will work?
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
WILL CUT DEFICIT IN HALF FIRST TERM????
THIS IS GOOD START??? haa
WASHINGTON – AP
House Democrats unveiled a $410 billion spending bill on Monday to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year, setting up the second political struggle over federal funds in less than a month with Republicans.
The measure includes thousands of earmarks, the pet projects favored by lawmakers but often criticized by the public in opinion polls. There was no official total of the bill's earmarks, which accounted for at least $3.8 billion.
The legislation, which includes an increase of roughly 8 percent over spending in the last fiscal year, is expected to clear the House later in the week.
Democrats defended the spending increases, saying they were needed to make up for cuts enacted in recent years or proposed a year ago by then-President George W. Bush in health, education, energy and other programs.
Republicans countered that the spending in the bill far outpaced inflation, and amounted to much higher increases when combined with spending in the stimulus legislation that President Barack Obama signed last week. In a letter to top Democratic leaders, the GOP leadership called for a spending freeze, a step they said would point toward a "new standard of fiscal discipline."
**NYSE TICK getting close to area we might finally see a bump....but ultimate bottom probably not in yet.
D
WASHINGTON – AP
House Democrats unveiled a $410 billion spending bill on Monday to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year, setting up the second political struggle over federal funds in less than a month with Republicans.
The measure includes thousands of earmarks, the pet projects favored by lawmakers but often criticized by the public in opinion polls. There was no official total of the bill's earmarks, which accounted for at least $3.8 billion.
The legislation, which includes an increase of roughly 8 percent over spending in the last fiscal year, is expected to clear the House later in the week.
Democrats defended the spending increases, saying they were needed to make up for cuts enacted in recent years or proposed a year ago by then-President George W. Bush in health, education, energy and other programs.
Republicans countered that the spending in the bill far outpaced inflation, and amounted to much higher increases when combined with spending in the stimulus legislation that President Barack Obama signed last week. In a letter to top Democratic leaders, the GOP leadership called for a spending freeze, a step they said would point toward a "new standard of fiscal discipline."
**NYSE TICK getting close to area we might finally see a bump....but ultimate bottom probably not in yet.
D
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
Santelli RANT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiCOb49vVVM UTUBE RANT
Thomas Jefferson Quote
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."
What we have now is forced Socialism and regulating income redistribution. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, we will have some judges presiding over whether a mortgage can have its principle knocked down so the (NOT LYING) down and out home owner can SOMEHOW stay in the home they bought and couldn't afford?
Those who voted for Obama and HIlary are going to get what you asked for and the others of us will pay. NO I hated BUSH.....I am for Conservative GOV that doesn't spend us into oblivion nor tax us into oblivion, WHERE IS OUR FREE MARKET SYSTEM?
D
Thomas Jefferson Quote
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."
What we have now is forced Socialism and regulating income redistribution. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, we will have some judges presiding over whether a mortgage can have its principle knocked down so the (NOT LYING) down and out home owner can SOMEHOW stay in the home they bought and couldn't afford?
Those who voted for Obama and HIlary are going to get what you asked for and the others of us will pay. NO I hated BUSH.....I am for Conservative GOV that doesn't spend us into oblivion nor tax us into oblivion, WHERE IS OUR FREE MARKET SYSTEM?
D
Thursday, February 19, 2009
SAVE YOUR ASS Investing 101 DURATEK STYLE
*CLICK TO ENLARGE
I AM GOING TO KEEP THIS SIMPLE AND IN CAPS....DEATH CROSS 50/200 AND BOTH DESCENDING THIS IS SCREAMING A BEAR MARKET IS HERE. YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELF THE 2X THIS OCCURED.
IN EARLY 2003 YOU CAN ALSO SEE WHEN THE MA'S BEGAN TO CLIMB AND WE HAD A CROSS UP OF 50 THRU 200 and there only the stubborn will stay bearish.
You don;t hardly need to know anything more, and it doesn't matter a squat what anybody says, you can TURN OFF THE FLIPPIN' TV SET.
I use addt'l TA to fine tune my signals and get them earlier for move down and up, but this signal is one not to be ignored IMHO NEVER EVER NEVER
I may not get the bottom, nor the top, but I sure as hell amnot going to have to grab my ankles as I sit there unaware and dumbfounded by a rise or decline so significant you cannot afford to fly BLIND
YOU cannot afford to be at MERCY of Wall street shills and the CRamer's etc of the world, what helpful did even ONE SOD at CNBC say or do to leep you out of harm's way in this most destructive Bear MKT?
WTF good are they then?
OTHER SHAMONS where CHIMPS do well in BULL spout special systems and signals blah blah are losing their subscribers asses now!!!!
WHAT about a freakin stop loss on any of their calls? EVERYBODY is wrong now again....you just MUST BE ABLE TO CUT YOUR LOSSES.
NOW.....what was gained back from 2003-2007 is GONE AND THEN SOME!!!
Most will end up SELLING near the lows.....it's just the way it goes time and time again.
VIX not screaming panic here either....
TRANSPORTS BELOW LAST NOV LOWS.........misery loves company.
GOV RESPONSE is pure BS......pablum for the masses....will do little good....its pathetic!
D
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
CFO 2009 OUTLOOK
http://corp.bankofamerica.com/publicpdf/landing/cfooutlook/Final_PDF.pdf
current BAC price $4.58 = $22.98 B mkt cap down from $229 B a drop of 90% in last 52 weeks
current BAC price $4.58 = $22.98 B mkt cap down from $229 B a drop of 90% in last 52 weeks
SPX RENKO
I use this in conjuction with other usual technical data. In general in when WHITE out when RED, can also see this in daily and monthly form, I like weekly for this bear bull call.
I added trend line so when broken I could enter on 1st white bar or exit 1st red if desired.
In BULL like 90's, could wait for 2nd red renko to exit would have kept you in. NOBODY gets in at bottom or out at top.....object is to ride the tide when less risky.
ANY NUMBER of signals would have been seen as early as 2007 where you could have avoided most of this bear market.
I am less inclined to GUESS at bottom on this nasty Depression-like Bear.....prices are obviously DOWN there....could be WHILE before profits come back.
I do not see bear bottom markers as yet.
D
CLOSEUP OF RECENT S & P 500 BREAKDOWN
*Click to enlarge.
Now, do we go and see if 740 can hold? TUES was ANOTHER 90% DOWN volume day, we can conclude the DESIRE to sell has not been vanguished, but has desire to buy?
NONE of the GOV bailout prgorams address the core of the problems, we've infected the economic universe...NO easy way out!
During last "mild" Recession Consumers NEVER stopped their credit binge, so what does FED DO? LOWER rates to 1% and hold them firing up the now defacto defuncto REAL ESTATE BUBBLE.....so now we must heal and pain is multiplied.
PLEASE stop seeing the gov and FED as rescue and for what they are THE PROBLEM!
D
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
MUST READ
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123456974951086203.html from Baron's interview with Robert Albertson.....no QUICK FIX and YES we ain't going about it right!
Folks forget Recession talks.....we in a Depression like state and we can't afford ANY more mistakes... I wish those now in power would talk to just one of these guys who know!
D
Folks forget Recession talks.....we in a Depression like state and we can't afford ANY more mistakes... I wish those now in power would talk to just one of these guys who know!
D
"RED ALERT FX DISLOCATION IN PROCESS"
http://market-ticker.org/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
Man have we reached the point of NO RETURN? ZOMBIES, BALD HEADS...roving pack of idiots and liars, and Ponzi's....like the plumb from an ATomic blast rising to the heavens only to CRASH down on all of humanity....and finance.
D
Man have we reached the point of NO RETURN? ZOMBIES, BALD HEADS...roving pack of idiots and liars, and Ponzi's....like the plumb from an ATomic blast rising to the heavens only to CRASH down on all of humanity....and finance.
D
ZOMBIE BANKS
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8346.html ZOMBIES IN BANK SYSTEM – ATTRACTING LAST PUBLIC FUNDS
Why markets dissed geithner plan ANDY KESSLER
http://www.andykessler.com/
AN all out ATTACK of SPX 800 this AM according to RED futures, boy now that wouldn't be good!
Look, I don't enjoy reporting this, but it is what it is, better to try and be prepared.... BILLIONS flowing into the states might be helpful but wont save our economy.
D
Why markets dissed geithner plan ANDY KESSLER
http://www.andykessler.com/
AN all out ATTACK of SPX 800 this AM according to RED futures, boy now that wouldn't be good!
Look, I don't enjoy reporting this, but it is what it is, better to try and be prepared.... BILLIONS flowing into the states might be helpful but wont save our economy.
D
Saturday, February 14, 2009
"EARNINGS ARE CRASHING"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090213_earn.html Carl Swenlin from great Decision Pt site.
OUCH!!!
Duratek
OUCH!!!
Duratek
FALSE CLAIMS AND THE CLUELESS
As of 8:37 a.m. EST • Obama: Stimulus bill 'major milestone' Those (in charge) who think a spending bill will get us out of the mess we're in are showing they do not understand the problem. WILD claims of creating 3.5 Million jobs are made without any burdon of explaining where that number came from.
The FED shoved $1 Trillion into system in just the last several months.....to no avail,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf has that process now topped, what a STEEP weekly decline!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/12/you_want_to_see_what_deflation.html Velocity
More amazing charts and VELOCITY explanation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/the-velocity-factor/
HUMPTEY DUMPTEY END OF AN ERA OF EXCESS
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/togdp-totalcreditdebt
STEEPER DROP THEN PREVIOUS BEAR OR ON RECORD
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m1
If those in charge dont understand the problem, how can they fix it?
D
The FED shoved $1 Trillion into system in just the last several months.....to no avail,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf has that process now topped, what a STEEP weekly decline!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/12/you_want_to_see_what_deflation.html Velocity
More amazing charts and VELOCITY explanation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/the-velocity-factor/
HUMPTEY DUMPTEY END OF AN ERA OF EXCESS
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/togdp-totalcreditdebt
STEEPER DROP THEN PREVIOUS BEAR OR ON RECORD
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m1
If those in charge dont understand the problem, how can they fix it?
D
Friday, February 13, 2009
LIST OF FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/09/15/business/20080916-treemap-graphic.html
BY flooding system with TWERP money is not going to put Humptey Dumptey back on the wall. A WORLDWIDE CONTAGION won't allow one or the other to pick the other one's up. HOW will CHINA goose their economy with US consumers and pals around the world cutting back and losing jobs? How do you clear out the ENORMOUS inventory of unsold and foreclosed homes when 100,000's are losing their jobs and the remaining have NO CONFIDENCE?
D
BY flooding system with TWERP money is not going to put Humptey Dumptey back on the wall. A WORLDWIDE CONTAGION won't allow one or the other to pick the other one's up. HOW will CHINA goose their economy with US consumers and pals around the world cutting back and losing jobs? How do you clear out the ENORMOUS inventory of unsold and foreclosed homes when 100,000's are losing their jobs and the remaining have NO CONFIDENCE?
D
Thursday, February 12, 2009
"THE COMING ECONOMIC DEPRESSION" ? AND WHY
*(Nouriel Roubini says to avert worst case scenario, GOV must do EVERYTHING 100% right...)
Below please find the link to what I believe tells the most accurate story of what has happened, what will unfold and why.
I run a retail business and I can tell you, the level of business has fallen below what I would categorize a Recession. You will not find this read an easy one, but if you want answers, if want to understand the HISTORIC events now unfolding you WILL READ IT.
As much as I want to believe the STIM PLAN is our saviour, I rather doubt it. The truth is not going to be told to the American people, and probably those responsable will get a pass. Hank Paulson already gave out $350 Billion and all the promises of oversight were just lip service. SO Wells Fargo used Tarp money NOT TO LEND but to buy Wachovia Bank and on top of that got a $25B tax break....but I digress.
*OH PS Isn't our national debt near $8 Trillion and of that over $6 Trillion is INTEREST PAYMENTS? So you see how paying INterest DIVERTS otherwise productive capital AWAY from our economy.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf Armstrong Economics
Posted: Feb 10 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 10, 2009 at 12:47 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Read this and you need not read any more ever, anywhere.
Save the file linked below. Each time you need me to hold your hand read this first. You will no longer need me.
I have in chapter and verse outlined to you what is coming and why.
This article is a maximus opus in line and verse, outlined in time and form and absolutely correct in content.
I met Mr. Armstrong in the early 80s. I know his story better than most. This is a man who has been persecuted for his knowledge. He is a modern day Livermore. Armstrong is the only true genius in finance. No one can qualify to tie his shoes.
He was incarcerated because of his talent by an all but now forgotten jurist. The why is forgotten. All that is remembered is someone’s belief he cost the IRS a large chunk of money.
Duratek
Below please find the link to what I believe tells the most accurate story of what has happened, what will unfold and why.
I run a retail business and I can tell you, the level of business has fallen below what I would categorize a Recession. You will not find this read an easy one, but if you want answers, if want to understand the HISTORIC events now unfolding you WILL READ IT.
As much as I want to believe the STIM PLAN is our saviour, I rather doubt it. The truth is not going to be told to the American people, and probably those responsable will get a pass. Hank Paulson already gave out $350 Billion and all the promises of oversight were just lip service. SO Wells Fargo used Tarp money NOT TO LEND but to buy Wachovia Bank and on top of that got a $25B tax break....but I digress.
*OH PS Isn't our national debt near $8 Trillion and of that over $6 Trillion is INTEREST PAYMENTS? So you see how paying INterest DIVERTS otherwise productive capital AWAY from our economy.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf Armstrong Economics
Posted: Feb 10 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 10, 2009 at 12:47 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Read this and you need not read any more ever, anywhere.
Save the file linked below. Each time you need me to hold your hand read this first. You will no longer need me.
I have in chapter and verse outlined to you what is coming and why.
This article is a maximus opus in line and verse, outlined in time and form and absolutely correct in content.
I met Mr. Armstrong in the early 80s. I know his story better than most. This is a man who has been persecuted for his knowledge. He is a modern day Livermore. Armstrong is the only true genius in finance. No one can qualify to tie his shoes.
He was incarcerated because of his talent by an all but now forgotten jurist. The why is forgotten. All that is remembered is someone’s belief he cost the IRS a large chunk of money.
Duratek
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
VOLUME ALERT
Todays volume was ROBUST and it came with a nasty 90% down volume day making the odds of further weakness more than likely. Maybe look for some kind of snap back rally but I dont think it will have any teeth....more and more it looks like THE lows are begging to be tested
D
D
ROUBINI SAW FINANCIAL CRISIS COMING
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1027496846&play=1
Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan what should we do now?
d
Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan what should we do now?
d
JUST A SPEED BUMP
By Tim Graham (Bio Archive)January 14, 2009 - 18:07 ET
The network evening shows didn’t have much of an appetite for Democratic hypocrisy among the team they hailed as a "superstar Cabinet" on Tuesday night. Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, a man who would oversee the IRS, failed to pay $42,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes -- and waited to pay more than half of that amount – $26,000 – only after Obama decided to nominate him. On top of that, one of Geithner’s household employees failed to renew her green card.
The network evening shows didn’t have much of an appetite for Democratic hypocrisy among the team they hailed as a "superstar Cabinet" on Tuesday night. Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, a man who would oversee the IRS, failed to pay $42,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes -- and waited to pay more than half of that amount – $26,000 – only after Obama decided to nominate him. On top of that, one of Geithner’s household employees failed to renew her green card.
Only ABC mentioned Geithner in their introductions, and featured no report, just an interview with George Stephanopoulos, who said it was a mere "speed bump" and "fairly common." CBS and NBC spent little more than a minute on Geithner, and NBC’s screen featured the Obama team’s claim in quotes. Under Geithner’s picture were the words "Honest Mistakes
THE RESPONSABLE LEAD THE IRRESPONABLES
Irresponsable lending policies by the banks, and an easy money policy by the FED, no SEC safeguarding with an historic expansion of credit and debt, much of to whom was not viable for the loans and a leveraged economy built on a house of cards has gone BUST, and as crazy as it sounds, it must be allowed to deleverage and unwind and values are trying to decline to a true market value which is sustainable.
We either have a true market system where the market sets the prices or we continue with a warped manipulated version where the FED continues to f'up and the GOV decides it can fix all problems.
No matter what is said, every time a CATASTROPHE happens GOV blows it way out of proportion and uses it to further its aims AKA PATRIOT ACT, INVASION of IRAQ etc.
Now as masquerading as STIM plan we have wealth redistribution and social spending and much will be permanent.
$25B was GIVEN by the leech Paulson to WELLS FARGO, and did they use it to loan to those in need? NO they used it to BUY WACOVIA and dbl the size of the bank off our $%%@# backs!
On top of that Paulson SNUCK in a provision that also gives WELLS a $25 B tax breaK!!!!! AND HOW IN THE HECK was it allowed (FEAR FACTOR AGAIN!) that $350B was flitted away and no one can tell where it went or how it was used, in fact PAulson had SO MUCH POWER he told the banks I dont care what you do with it! GREAT POLICY
Tax evader Geithner will tell us how its going to be dif now today. Isnt he the same monkey that was a FED GOV when all this was going on?
NOW HEAR THIS, if you take out the money PULLED from homes last 5 years or so we basically would not have had an economy......so we RAPED our homes as ATM machines....all that happened in front of THEIR eyes was not only allowed but encouraged.
And out of control speculation and an EXPLOSION of DERIVATIVES was left unchecked.....and now what is on FED balance sheet? How much DEBT has and is going to be incurred by the bankrupt US GOV?
DO you know it is reported we already OVERPAID $78Billion for assets they bought which was said to be great investment? JUST LIKE IRAQUI OIL WOULD PAY FOR WAR?
Here bend over and pick up that soap please......
D
We either have a true market system where the market sets the prices or we continue with a warped manipulated version where the FED continues to f'up and the GOV decides it can fix all problems.
No matter what is said, every time a CATASTROPHE happens GOV blows it way out of proportion and uses it to further its aims AKA PATRIOT ACT, INVASION of IRAQ etc.
Now as masquerading as STIM plan we have wealth redistribution and social spending and much will be permanent.
$25B was GIVEN by the leech Paulson to WELLS FARGO, and did they use it to loan to those in need? NO they used it to BUY WACOVIA and dbl the size of the bank off our $%%@# backs!
On top of that Paulson SNUCK in a provision that also gives WELLS a $25 B tax breaK!!!!! AND HOW IN THE HECK was it allowed (FEAR FACTOR AGAIN!) that $350B was flitted away and no one can tell where it went or how it was used, in fact PAulson had SO MUCH POWER he told the banks I dont care what you do with it! GREAT POLICY
Tax evader Geithner will tell us how its going to be dif now today. Isnt he the same monkey that was a FED GOV when all this was going on?
NOW HEAR THIS, if you take out the money PULLED from homes last 5 years or so we basically would not have had an economy......so we RAPED our homes as ATM machines....all that happened in front of THEIR eyes was not only allowed but encouraged.
And out of control speculation and an EXPLOSION of DERIVATIVES was left unchecked.....and now what is on FED balance sheet? How much DEBT has and is going to be incurred by the bankrupt US GOV?
DO you know it is reported we already OVERPAID $78Billion for assets they bought which was said to be great investment? JUST LIKE IRAQUI OIL WOULD PAY FOR WAR?
Here bend over and pick up that soap please......
D
Sunday, February 08, 2009
MARKET GETTING A WEDGIE?
*As always click to enlarge http://www.baresearch.com/education/technical_analysis/chart_patterns/continuation/rising_wedge.php source of explanation
D
FORK IN THE ROAD OR STICK A FORK IN IT
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090208/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy Competing stimulus plans or game of musical chairs?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396564199658919.html ANY language teacher loves Alan Abelosn's prose....titled "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE" a look into our current predicament.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html Are we destined for something far worse than the avg Recession?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396566284858963.html Let the market DIGEST the stimulus plan.....expect a vote by next Tuesday, and it is usuallythe day after an event you get the true market reaction.
When NEW DEBTS are PROPPED UP with OLD DEBTS and not allowed to default....ALL the debts become unpayable.....NOBODY at the helm knows what to do, they won't talk to those who do.....the numbnuts at the hweel are not like the HERO pilot who saved lives flying into the Hudson......NO at the wheel is the dude on the Titanic...
D
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396564199658919.html ANY language teacher loves Alan Abelosn's prose....titled "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE" a look into our current predicament.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html Are we destined for something far worse than the avg Recession?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396566284858963.html Let the market DIGEST the stimulus plan.....expect a vote by next Tuesday, and it is usuallythe day after an event you get the true market reaction.
When NEW DEBTS are PROPPED UP with OLD DEBTS and not allowed to default....ALL the debts become unpayable.....NOBODY at the helm knows what to do, they won't talk to those who do.....the numbnuts at the hweel are not like the HERO pilot who saved lives flying into the Hudson......NO at the wheel is the dude on the Titanic...
D
Friday, February 06, 2009
CATTLE PROD STIM BEAR TRAP
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm notice how last weeks got REVISED WITH ADDT'L 50K lost jobs! what good is todays figure showing 3 decade high lost jobs?
Go ahead PASS a bill that doesn't stim, bad bank whatever.......more and more people realize something STINKS...we dont stay stupid forever. half the numb numbs dont even get past the first few pages....
D
Go ahead PASS a bill that doesn't stim, bad bank whatever.......more and more people realize something STINKS...we dont stay stupid forever. half the numb numbs dont even get past the first few pages....
D
Thursday, February 05, 2009
ANIMAL SPIRITS
If tech shows "animal spirits" CSCO rather dour news, Chambers can pump it up with the best, but when obvious he comes clean. STIM is NO STIM, DEM's not giving an inch, REPUB's not getting much say cept lip service...a failed bill that doesn't stim for an economy on last gasp needing REAL STIM...not a good cocktail
EWT seems wrong AGAIN about gold, so one mans wave rad is another mans tsunami wipe out
The credit goosing machine is dead, IPO's went sterile snip snip....there is no capex expansion but contraction of spending on all fronts cept FED and GOV....with NO vehicle to feed the animal spirit my ONLY question is from WHAT LOW do we finally recover from........and in the END how can all the US $$$$ printing of historic proportions be healthy for the ultimate destination of its value.
AM JOBLESS CLAIMS LEAP 41,000 to 626,000 and somehow the BLS gives us a larger than expected productivity # !
Duratek....a light in a sea of chaos
EWT seems wrong AGAIN about gold, so one mans wave rad is another mans tsunami wipe out
The credit goosing machine is dead, IPO's went sterile snip snip....there is no capex expansion but contraction of spending on all fronts cept FED and GOV....with NO vehicle to feed the animal spirit my ONLY question is from WHAT LOW do we finally recover from........and in the END how can all the US $$$$ printing of historic proportions be healthy for the ultimate destination of its value.
AM JOBLESS CLAIMS LEAP 41,000 to 626,000 and somehow the BLS gives us a larger than expected productivity # !
Duratek....a light in a sea of chaos
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
SCUM OF THE EARTH
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100181150 Madoff's brother?
WHAT GOOD is a GOV agency like SEC if handed to them on platter was MADOFF as early as 2000 and they ignored it?
Madoff whistle blower http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100242196
INTERESTING READ....http://www.vtcommons.org/files/Dystopians.pdf (thanks Mike P)
WHAT GOOD is a GOV agency like SEC if handed to them on platter was MADOFF as early as 2000 and they ignored it?
Madoff whistle blower http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100242196
INTERESTING READ....http://www.vtcommons.org/files/Dystopians.pdf (thanks Mike P)
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
DILUTION PARADE
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of SanDisk Corp. slid in premarket trading Tuesday after the maker of flash memory cards posted a larger-than-expected fourth-quarter loss, said it expects 2009 to be challenging and that it may sell stock to raise cash.
Motorola loses $3.6B, suspends dividend, CFO exits- There goes dividend, is buying divie paying stocks safe?
ATLANTA (AP) -- UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Tuesday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $254 million. It also said it is freezing management salaries and suspending its match for its employee 401(k) plans as sales slid 5.2 percent, and its chief warned that 2009 will be very difficult because "the consumer is not spending."
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm SLOWLY improving
My hunch is SPX 840-850 will be KEY resistance to any rally
D
Motorola loses $3.6B, suspends dividend, CFO exits- There goes dividend, is buying divie paying stocks safe?
ATLANTA (AP) -- UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Tuesday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $254 million. It also said it is freezing management salaries and suspending its match for its employee 401(k) plans as sales slid 5.2 percent, and its chief warned that 2009 will be very difficult because "the consumer is not spending."
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm SLOWLY improving
My hunch is SPX 840-850 will be KEY resistance to any rally
D
Monday, February 02, 2009
WHO IS BEHIND THE CURTAIN
February 1, 2009
Fed lends two trillion without oversight
ANP: Will Congressman Alan Grayson be able to shed a light on the Fed's secret spending?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3220 FED NOT TELLING ALL OR MUCH AS TO WHERE THE FRICKEN MONEY IS GOING OR WENT.
And do you wonder why we are all so screwed? We got another Obama guy as tax evader?
D
Fed lends two trillion without oversight
ANP: Will Congressman Alan Grayson be able to shed a light on the Fed's secret spending?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3220 FED NOT TELLING ALL OR MUCH AS TO WHERE THE FRICKEN MONEY IS GOING OR WENT.
And do you wonder why we are all so screwed? We got another Obama guy as tax evader?
D
Sunday, February 01, 2009
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS TAKING US DOWN A DARK ROAD
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10184 Scroll down to his ending summary INFLATIONISM THE BANE OF CAPITALISM. Doug Noland is one of the smartest writers on this subject and helps you to understand what is wrong with current approach. It isn't even the hair of the dog that bit you, current thinking is so wrong it is not funny. Here we go again, it is the job of the FED and GOV to reflate asset markets rather than do the things that help build HEALTHY STABLE ECONOMIES.
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm The featured wrong way gurus Noland refers to, read their newest wrong way rants here, self serving no doubt too. When will these idiots be seen for what they are?
THE OTHER GUYS 'AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS" Here is a website for thier views.
http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Here's what THEY have done to Money Base just since SEPT of 2008!!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf and to what effect?
These wrong way bungleheads, old ADM and now the NEW HOPE ADM will never get it right, will never seek Austrian advice, will never tell the truth, will never pay the bill....it's always PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT GUY ECONOMICS WE DONT WANT TO FEEL THE PAIN WE INFLICTED ON OURSELVES.
Is it ANY wonder the DOW sits here limp wristed at 8000 ? DOUG NOLAND'S will shed a light and it is up to you to spread the word and decide what to do about it.
I have warned for years about our current plight, this is what I do to try and help people avoid disaster, I am not as much so the profiteer.
If you dont OWN an opinion on your OWN financial situation one will be handed to you. It is worth your effort, and I continue to keep my mind open and increase my own knowledge and abilities through research and technical analysis. It is a matter of survival.
Duratek
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm The featured wrong way gurus Noland refers to, read their newest wrong way rants here, self serving no doubt too. When will these idiots be seen for what they are?
THE OTHER GUYS 'AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS" Here is a website for thier views.
http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Here's what THEY have done to Money Base just since SEPT of 2008!!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf and to what effect?
These wrong way bungleheads, old ADM and now the NEW HOPE ADM will never get it right, will never seek Austrian advice, will never tell the truth, will never pay the bill....it's always PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT GUY ECONOMICS WE DONT WANT TO FEEL THE PAIN WE INFLICTED ON OURSELVES.
Is it ANY wonder the DOW sits here limp wristed at 8000 ? DOUG NOLAND'S will shed a light and it is up to you to spread the word and decide what to do about it.
I have warned for years about our current plight, this is what I do to try and help people avoid disaster, I am not as much so the profiteer.
If you dont OWN an opinion on your OWN financial situation one will be handed to you. It is worth your effort, and I continue to keep my mind open and increase my own knowledge and abilities through research and technical analysis. It is a matter of survival.
Duratek
Friday, January 30, 2009
NY TIMES PIECE "CLEANER AND FASTER"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/30/opinion/30brooks.html?_r=1 MUST READ ABOUT STIM THAT DOESNT STIM AMAZING STUFF
D
D
GEE DP
Inventories Boost GDP
Last Update: 30-Jan-09 08:48 ET briefing.com
I
nventories rose slightly in the fourth quarter. That compared to a large drop in the third quarter, so the contribution to GDP from inventories was a much stronger-than-expected 1.3%.
That led to a smaller-than-expected drop in overall GDP of 3.8%, compared to an expected drop of about 5.5%.
The other components were not as upbeat.
Personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) dropped at a 3.5% annual rate and sliced 2.5% off GDP.
Nonresidential investment plunged at a 19% annual rate and residential investment (housing) dropped at a 28% annual rate.
Government spending did manage a modest increase.
A
lso a bit of a surprise, net exports added 0.1% to GDP rather than taking a bit off.
Overall, the trends in the key components -- business investment, consumer spending, and housing -- remain poor.
The inventory boost is not likely to continue into the first quarter, and net exports could well turn negative. That sets the stage for a similar decline at a rate of 3% to 4% for first quarter real GDP.
The headline on this report is not as bad as feared, but the breakdown doesn't provide much encouragement.
*** Tennesee Airport reported a 33% DROP in AIR CARGO....worst on record since 911.
Recent report shows Japan's economy shrunk by 10%.
Forget the "LITTLE PEOPLE" if OBAMA panders to gov spending and handing out condoms....and NOT GIVING SMALL to MED size biz a hand...lookout below
D
Last Update: 30-Jan-09 08:48 ET briefing.com
I
nventories rose slightly in the fourth quarter. That compared to a large drop in the third quarter, so the contribution to GDP from inventories was a much stronger-than-expected 1.3%.
That led to a smaller-than-expected drop in overall GDP of 3.8%, compared to an expected drop of about 5.5%.
The other components were not as upbeat.
Personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) dropped at a 3.5% annual rate and sliced 2.5% off GDP.
Nonresidential investment plunged at a 19% annual rate and residential investment (housing) dropped at a 28% annual rate.
Government spending did manage a modest increase.
A
lso a bit of a surprise, net exports added 0.1% to GDP rather than taking a bit off.
Overall, the trends in the key components -- business investment, consumer spending, and housing -- remain poor.
The inventory boost is not likely to continue into the first quarter, and net exports could well turn negative. That sets the stage for a similar decline at a rate of 3% to 4% for first quarter real GDP.
The headline on this report is not as bad as feared, but the breakdown doesn't provide much encouragement.
*** Tennesee Airport reported a 33% DROP in AIR CARGO....worst on record since 911.
Recent report shows Japan's economy shrunk by 10%.
Forget the "LITTLE PEOPLE" if OBAMA panders to gov spending and handing out condoms....and NOT GIVING SMALL to MED size biz a hand...lookout below
D
NO PLACE TO GO BUT DOWN
• NEC plans to eliminate 20,000 jobs from groupwide workforce (70,000 cuts announced from various companies yesterday alone)
• Obama, Congress seek compromise deal on stimulus plan (a stim that porks you instead of stims you...by the time this works we'll be toasted)
RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD as the slowdown screws even the rich people, Read where Kevin Bacon lost all his investments (less real Estate) to MAdoff scam? Wish you were LeBron James?
State budgets under water, here in MD projected shortfall is $2B with a B....gov workers face an axe.....that may be all that's left to deal with slowdown....and that makes it worse. 4.8 Million already (and then some) on work release.
Housing mkt yet to even slow down let alone reverse declining trend. BANKING SYSTEM ON LIFE SUPPORT
Even with FED talkity talk....10 yr yields are rising (lows near 2% now 2.8%)
It may be late, but the R word may be the D word. SMALL BUSINESSES NEED A BAILOUT or the shedding of workers will see a HUGE uptick.
EVEN more debt being Piled up on the NEXT GEN.
One explanation for the rising $$$$ could be sickening condition of the Euro zone in particlar Britain.....and I have one more thought.
The US $$$ is rising (for now even as gold rises) BECAUSE in my OPINION it must be that we are in a SEVERE DEFLATIONARY CLIMATE!! US $$$$$$'S are being DESTROYED making those remaining to pay off debt MORE VALUABLE
If you have better idea please leave a comment. FED statement doesn't sound positive for the rest of this year or maybe 2010.
ASSETS continue to DEFLATE IN VALUE.....even as record attempts to REFLATE/INFLATE debts away is failing.....there is little to no VELOCITY of money.
AFter seeing 50% or more whither away from mkt holdings....how much more will the little guy take before we get capitualtion? Because I dont think we did yet, yesterday was another 90% down volume day suggesting the desire to sell has NOT been extighuished.....and I DO mean this, good luck everyone. I have my OWN HELL to deal with as I continue to do my best and get the word out and share my opinion and views...my record is ALL HERE for review.
PS....my blog has now been visited from readers in 48 dif countries.....thank you for taking the time.
D
• Obama, Congress seek compromise deal on stimulus plan (a stim that porks you instead of stims you...by the time this works we'll be toasted)
RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD as the slowdown screws even the rich people, Read where Kevin Bacon lost all his investments (less real Estate) to MAdoff scam? Wish you were LeBron James?
State budgets under water, here in MD projected shortfall is $2B with a B....gov workers face an axe.....that may be all that's left to deal with slowdown....and that makes it worse. 4.8 Million already (and then some) on work release.
Housing mkt yet to even slow down let alone reverse declining trend. BANKING SYSTEM ON LIFE SUPPORT
Even with FED talkity talk....10 yr yields are rising (lows near 2% now 2.8%)
It may be late, but the R word may be the D word. SMALL BUSINESSES NEED A BAILOUT or the shedding of workers will see a HUGE uptick.
EVEN more debt being Piled up on the NEXT GEN.
One explanation for the rising $$$$ could be sickening condition of the Euro zone in particlar Britain.....and I have one more thought.
The US $$$ is rising (for now even as gold rises) BECAUSE in my OPINION it must be that we are in a SEVERE DEFLATIONARY CLIMATE!! US $$$$$$'S are being DESTROYED making those remaining to pay off debt MORE VALUABLE
If you have better idea please leave a comment. FED statement doesn't sound positive for the rest of this year or maybe 2010.
ASSETS continue to DEFLATE IN VALUE.....even as record attempts to REFLATE/INFLATE debts away is failing.....there is little to no VELOCITY of money.
AFter seeing 50% or more whither away from mkt holdings....how much more will the little guy take before we get capitualtion? Because I dont think we did yet, yesterday was another 90% down volume day suggesting the desire to sell has NOT been extighuished.....and I DO mean this, good luck everyone. I have my OWN HELL to deal with as I continue to do my best and get the word out and share my opinion and views...my record is ALL HERE for review.
PS....my blog has now been visited from readers in 48 dif countries.....thank you for taking the time.
D
Thursday, January 29, 2009
STIM AS PORK
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=6757733
http://wbal.com/shows/smith/ Conservative talk show US eastern time weekdays 3-6 PM many x's covering the REAL topics.
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/28/good-morning-suckers/print PORK REVEALED
AFter GDP report.....will the market have an accident? What to do when you see Gov flail around and suck wind, pass pork instead of real stim and give themselves a 3% pay increase? THAT'S RIGHT!!!
Under the freakin circumstances do you think they should have declined one those $$M aires?
Money the GOV is wasting.....is money taken OUT of the private sector, we need PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, not gov pork and handouts.
D
http://wbal.com/shows/smith/ Conservative talk show US eastern time weekdays 3-6 PM many x's covering the REAL topics.
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/28/good-morning-suckers/print PORK REVEALED
AFter GDP report.....will the market have an accident? What to do when you see Gov flail around and suck wind, pass pork instead of real stim and give themselves a 3% pay increase? THAT'S RIGHT!!!
Under the freakin circumstances do you think they should have declined one those $$M aires?
Money the GOV is wasting.....is money taken OUT of the private sector, we need PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, not gov pork and handouts.
D
SPX FAIR VALUE?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/spx-earnings-mu.html FAIR VALUE IS?
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090123_dec.html CArl Swenlin "decline in progress" 1/23/2009
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html MUST READ on SPX 500 valuations
D
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090123_dec.html CArl Swenlin "decline in progress" 1/23/2009
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html MUST READ on SPX 500 valuations
D
ECONOMIC DATA
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm LOOK at revision to DURABLE ORDERS # !!! what good is this data if not even CLOSE to accurate?
BUSINESSES NEED TAX CUTS......REAL MIDDLE CLASS NEED TAX CUTS.....STIM PLAN LIMP!
D
BUSINESSES NEED TAX CUTS......REAL MIDDLE CLASS NEED TAX CUTS.....STIM PLAN LIMP!
D
MONETIZING THE DEBT
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11981.htm DEC 2008
http://www.ronpaul.com/ Don't worry about the printing press.....for now?
If the FED buys long dated Treasuries to BRING DOWN interest rates......when all else fails do more harm?
D
http://www.ronpaul.com/ Don't worry about the printing press.....for now?
If the FED buys long dated Treasuries to BRING DOWN interest rates......when all else fails do more harm?
D
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
FED POLICY SATEMENT
Fed: Rates to remain low 'for some time'
Wednesday January 28, 2009, 2:21 pm EST
The following statement was posted on the Federal Reserve Web site on January 28, 2009:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.
Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly.
Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.
Subdued inflation
In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.
The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.
The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.
Wednesday January 28, 2009, 2:21 pm EST
The following statement was posted on the Federal Reserve Web site on January 28, 2009:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.
Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly.
Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.
Subdued inflation
In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.
The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.
The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.
OUCH!!!
Boeing to cut 10000 jobsCNNMoney.com - 28 minutes ago
Plane maker announces an additional 5500 job cuts as demand for new aircraft is expected to remain weak. By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer How will the economic stimulus package help your job situation?Boeing Plans to Cut 10000 Jobs as Demand Weakens BloombergBoeing reports loss for quarter and sees tough times ahead International Herald TribuneBizjournals.com - guardian.co.uk -
Seattle Timesall 603 news articles » AMS:BOEI - BA
ZDNetAT&T Profit Drops as Customers Depart Amid Recession
Bloomberg - 2 hours agoBy Amy Thomson Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- AT&T Inc., the second-largest US phone company, said fourth-quarter profit fell 23 percent as the US recession pushed home-phone customers to disconnect lines, eating into the carrier’s largest business.
Plane maker announces an additional 5500 job cuts as demand for new aircraft is expected to remain weak. By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer How will the economic stimulus package help your job situation?Boeing Plans to Cut 10000 Jobs as Demand Weakens BloombergBoeing reports loss for quarter and sees tough times ahead International Herald TribuneBizjournals.com - guardian.co.uk -
Seattle Timesall 603 news articles » AMS:BOEI - BA
ZDNetAT&T Profit Drops as Customers Depart Amid Recession
Bloomberg - 2 hours agoBy Amy Thomson Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- AT&T Inc., the second-largest US phone company, said fourth-quarter profit fell 23 percent as the US recession pushed home-phone customers to disconnect lines, eating into the carrier’s largest business.
ROUBINI COMMENTS
NYU’s Roubini: "Nowhere to Hide" from Global SlowdownJan 28, 2009 08:44am EST by Tech Ticker in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
Related: ^gspc, ^dji, bac, c, jpm, wfc, xlf
Nouriel Roubini of NYU’s Stern School of Business is making fresh headlines, as he's forecasting an even more dire outlook for the global economy. In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg News in Zurich, Roubini said:
The U.S. will lose 6 million jobs with unemployment reaching at least 9 percent.
The U.S. economy will expand 1 percent at most in 2010.
Economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent.
He reiterated his statements that the biggest U.S. banks are insolvent, and that losses could reach $3.6 trillion, far exceeding his original estiamtes.
Is Roubini -- nicknamed "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic yet accurate forecasts in recent years -- off the mark? We ask colleague and fellow NYU economist Lawrence White. One message from White is clear. Acknowledge losses swiftly or we risk a Japan-like drawn-out recession with no near-term recovery in sight. Yesterday, White and Henry Blodget also discussed:
Why the U.S. government is afraid to let banks fail amid growing chatter in Washington D.C. for an "aggregator" bank model, and
The need for corporate executive accountability as John Thain, formerly of Merrill, denied charges he failed to warn Bank of America of mounting losses.
Related: ^gspc, ^dji, bac, c, jpm, wfc, xlf
Nouriel Roubini of NYU’s Stern School of Business is making fresh headlines, as he's forecasting an even more dire outlook for the global economy. In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg News in Zurich, Roubini said:
The U.S. will lose 6 million jobs with unemployment reaching at least 9 percent.
The U.S. economy will expand 1 percent at most in 2010.
Economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent.
He reiterated his statements that the biggest U.S. banks are insolvent, and that losses could reach $3.6 trillion, far exceeding his original estiamtes.
Is Roubini -- nicknamed "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic yet accurate forecasts in recent years -- off the mark? We ask colleague and fellow NYU economist Lawrence White. One message from White is clear. Acknowledge losses swiftly or we risk a Japan-like drawn-out recession with no near-term recovery in sight. Yesterday, White and Henry Blodget also discussed:
Why the U.S. government is afraid to let banks fail amid growing chatter in Washington D.C. for an "aggregator" bank model, and
The need for corporate executive accountability as John Thain, formerly of Merrill, denied charges he failed to warn Bank of America of mounting losses.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
NO CONFIDENCE
HOW do you repair economy when jobs are being shed and consumer confidence is falling to levels not seen in DECADES?
Home values continue to decline. Stimulus won't stimulate. The weak and sickly banks are kept on life support with taxpayer money, and the ones healthier or got one good leg are hoarding the "free money".
BUsiness is near NON EXISTANT. GDP THIS FRI. TEPID RALLY APPEARS to be consolidation of previous decline. There is NO buyer enthusiasm.
Wouldn't a company like CAT benefit from supposed infrastructure stim spending? NO, obviously NO if they just announced HUGE LAYOFFS.....why there are OODLES of these cranes, earth movers etc idled all over the globe as the last BOOM caused SEVERE over building.
BDI skuds along its bottom...improving only slightly.
Even as I post THIS the DOW is near unchanged.
Decision pt, as I posted earlier has great piece on FAIR VALUE and it doesn't paint a bully picture
D
IS THIS BOTTOMING??!!!
S&P: Home Values Post 18.2 Percent Annual Drop in November- AP
A closely watched index shows home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in November. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 18.2 percent from November 2007, the largest decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.1 percent, tied with October for the biggest drop in its 21-year history.
A closely watched index shows home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in November. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 18.2 percent from November 2007, the largest decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.1 percent, tied with October for the biggest drop in its 21-year history.
Monday, January 26, 2009
40,000 GONE AND TAX EVADER IS IN
CAT etc......40,000 jobs lost today alone!
Geithner voted in as Treasury Secretary8:08pm: Senators approve President Obama's pick to oversee the government's response to financial crisis. Some Republicans object.
CAN THIS F'ER DO MY TAXES???? A F'ING JOKE this country is a joke! Glad we could get some REAL PEOPLE with CLASS, not connected in to run things....
It is SO BAD out there people, you know......no one willing to tell truth...we are so screwed.
D
Geithner voted in as Treasury Secretary8:08pm: Senators approve President Obama's pick to oversee the government's response to financial crisis. Some Republicans object.
CAN THIS F'ER DO MY TAXES???? A F'ING JOKE this country is a joke! Glad we could get some REAL PEOPLE with CLASS, not connected in to run things....
It is SO BAD out there people, you know......no one willing to tell truth...we are so screwed.
D
Saturday, January 24, 2009
MARKET BUILDING UP TO SOMETHING
WHat I see is a DESCENDING WEDGE pattern and considering this is consolidation in a bear market decline, IMHO this will break DOWN.
DOUG NOLAND TROUBLE IN THE U.K. http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10180
D
Friday, January 23, 2009
"STOCKS ARE CHEAP!!!" SAY WHAT!!
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html are they really?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf "To the moon Alice"
D
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf "To the moon Alice"
D
ROUBINI ON CHINA
The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%
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Nouriel Roubini Jan 22, 2009
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recessionSo the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati
Nouriel Roubini Jan 22, 2009
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recessionSo the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
MARKET IN DANGER OF REVISITING LOWS
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/106466/Where-You-Won Retailers in danger of extinction
*(click to enlarge chart) 60M view of JAN 09 SPX action, as Dow is only 30 stocks (S&P are 500) and many are below $5 the DOW no longer represents TRUE market action.
Transports are weak and in lock step with overall market decline and both appear ready to TEST 08 lows.
In desperate attempt to revive Chinese real estate market, some developers are lowering prices 20% which has immediately devalued those who had bought into developments ahead of this heavy discounting. Recently, though weak it seems like Chinese stock market has held up beter than lets say the Japanese now under 8,000 again, remember in the 1990's (REAL ESTATE BUBBLE STOCK BUBBLE) when their market was 40,000? Now almost 20 years later you see what forces of DEFLATION are capable of doing?
Then are you confused with recent strength of the US $$$? (YEN has plumetted). Deflation destroys dollars so those remaining increase in value.....who thinks INFLATION is winning?
WHat will even $1 Trilion of GOV spending over 2 years do to repair the destruction of over $8 Trillion?
And recently the Bond market has been selling off. Gold remains strong even in face of rising $....will this continue?
Most have seen a 30-50% loss in their stock portfolio's, add loss of house value you see power of this trend.
My readers I hope have stayed SAFE with me all during this bear market, and I hope to continue to help guide us thru this difficult period, all IMHO of course......but you can see problems with STANDING PAT NO MATTER WHAT
D
Thursday, January 22, 2009
ILL WINDS BLOWING
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm AM DATA
CONFLCTING
Microsoft to slash 5,000 jobs, misses on 2Q profit- AP
Housing starts drop to record low in December- AP
New jobless claims rise more than expected- AP
Oil hits $45 as US company news improves- AP ?????????
TEST OF LOWS MORE LIKELY INHO
D
CONFLCTING
Microsoft to slash 5,000 jobs, misses on 2Q profit- AP
Housing starts drop to record low in December- AP
New jobless claims rise more than expected- AP
Oil hits $45 as US company news improves- AP ?????????
TEST OF LOWS MORE LIKELY INHO
D
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
BEAR MARKET RESUMES!!
Ericsson cuts 5,000 jobs and posts 31 percent drop in 4Q profit. TOO MUCH OF THIS and the stock market is now reacting to the bad news, and the sellers were OUT IN FORCE TUESDAY with another 90% down volume day! The buying control program L had issued end of last year is now reversed and a fully defensive posture is now in vogue (for me when wasn't it?)
On a day where HOPS was the key topic and CHANGE is for the good, to see a market in freefall was disarming. It is typical to get a few days respite after a 90% down day, after which IF IT COMES the lows are to be challenged.
Transports Nov low of 2,988 has been broken. SPX NOV low (daily) is 752.44 and nothing between here and DOW 7552.29 low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62222868433 UYG was off near 30% from already putrid level to a NEW LOW!!! $2.73
MY call to watch VIX support near 40 called THE TOP of this fetid rally, and my propritary indicator has turned DOWN once again and made a NEW DAILY LOW, it is clear to me now I cannot can THE BOTTOM with this until its supporting MOMO cross up, not just by sheer new low readings alone.
HNI IMHO would be early benefactor of renewed economic strength appears to have renewed it's downtrend. It has in the past front run moves up and down by a year or more.
GE a new low for move, there is a HEAVY SHORT position there. INT rates and OIL spiked Tues.
GOV is buyer of last resort of almost everything.....to see UYG break down like this is to see the banking system barely on life support......we can all pray now.
D
Saturday, January 17, 2009
50K IN ONE WEEK
50,000 job losses reported FRI, major corporations paring down departments and seeing 50% whithering of orders, or no back logs.
The MAJOR Banks are on life support and death watch, more than doubling the monetary base in a few short months has not turned this around.
MAJOR BEAR MARKETS (this isn't?) have ended with SINGLE DIGIT PE'S and DIVIE YIELDS North of 6% for SPX. WHAT ARE PROJECTED SPX EARNINGS GOING FORWARD?
Some have suggested falling to maybe $50 and X 10 gives us a SPX at 500 not 850....this is certainly possible.
Historically we find MANY indicators well beyond previous bear mkt bottom extremes, trouble is extremes were hit other way too.....hard to say how much more unwinding we get.....or whether we get Obama bounce, or have we already had it?
D
The MAJOR Banks are on life support and death watch, more than doubling the monetary base in a few short months has not turned this around.
MAJOR BEAR MARKETS (this isn't?) have ended with SINGLE DIGIT PE'S and DIVIE YIELDS North of 6% for SPX. WHAT ARE PROJECTED SPX EARNINGS GOING FORWARD?
Some have suggested falling to maybe $50 and X 10 gives us a SPX at 500 not 850....this is certainly possible.
Historically we find MANY indicators well beyond previous bear mkt bottom extremes, trouble is extremes were hit other way too.....hard to say how much more unwinding we get.....or whether we get Obama bounce, or have we already had it?
D
Friday, January 16, 2009
$8 TRILLION GONE AND COUNTING
Those are the lost value of real estate and stock market portfolio's, and so with a handful of $billions...stim we fix everything? WHY do you think GROWING the FED money machine from $800 to near $2 Trillion hasnt righted the ship?
It's called DEFLATION. $$$$'s are being DESTROYED.....one's left over more valuable so for now the US grinchback has been rising....in the end it certainly may die in swarm of inflation but for now inflation talk is a JOKE. Golds alure IMHO is safety or this one day inflation comes scenario.
SPX R is 850-857 Trans is near NOV lows......a complete COLLAPSE is possible,,,,maybe some giddyup around O's innauguration.....and the HOPE PLAY.
D
It's called DEFLATION. $$$$'s are being DESTROYED.....one's left over more valuable so for now the US grinchback has been rising....in the end it certainly may die in swarm of inflation but for now inflation talk is a JOKE. Golds alure IMHO is safety or this one day inflation comes scenario.
SPX R is 850-857 Trans is near NOV lows......a complete COLLAPSE is possible,,,,maybe some giddyup around O's innauguration.....and the HOPE PLAY.
D
FOR THOSE WHO WERE WONDERING
I do more than write on my blog....I'm the DUDE on BASS! haaaa
PS I DO NOT LIKE the market action.....SDS popped from it's base at$65 to over $80, nice move........now we are red.....weak action
D
Thursday, January 15, 2009
HAMMER TIME
OPEX FRI LOOMS....time to catch greedy bears off guard? reversal today....on news more bank bailouts...oh boy "we got your back!"
D
MARKET SELLOFF ALERT
Yesterday's decline qualified as a 90% down volume day....brutal intense and took the averages below support levels.
Remember we had been watching the VIX for further weakness but it gained support near 40 and has been rising.
Oversold, again mkt not able to stem the slide, bad sign.....did anyone REALLY expect upbeat economic data?
Hope ain't enough friends....as the layoffs and cuts in spending sprial so do our recovery hopes....
D
Remember we had been watching the VIX for further weakness but it gained support near 40 and has been rising.
Oversold, again mkt not able to stem the slide, bad sign.....did anyone REALLY expect upbeat economic data?
Hope ain't enough friends....as the layoffs and cuts in spending sprial so do our recovery hopes....
D
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Friday, January 09, 2009
PANICKING FED
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf a DOUBLE OF EXISTING!!!!!!! in less than 4 months
REVISIONS to empeloyment report show how reliable it is...MUCH worse
D
REVISIONS to empeloyment report show how reliable it is...MUCH worse
D
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
REALITY BITES
Stocks set to drop as jobs in focus Jan 7: 8:25a
Markets to consider Alcoa payroll cut and two reports on December employment. (more)
Mortgage applications dip despite low rates
Announced job cuts remain high, firm says
Watch for rise of VIX back above 40 for early warning.....so far sellers have hibernated.
D
Markets to consider Alcoa payroll cut and two reports on December employment. (more)
Mortgage applications dip despite low rates
Announced job cuts remain high, firm says
Watch for rise of VIX back above 40 for early warning.....so far sellers have hibernated.
D
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Monday, January 05, 2009
WILL IT MAKE TRIP to 200 Moving Avg?
I had 9200 area as one to watch....VIX has been falling, but still elevated....almost seems like coast is clear? but I dont think it isD
Saturday, January 03, 2009
FED BEHIND THE CURTAIN
The Fed is also focused on two other areas as it seeks to stimulate the economy – financing consumer loans and potential purchases of Treasury bonds.
To fund these operations it is expanding bank reserves rapidly – creating money in a similar way to if it were printing dollar bills.
The Fed is eager to increase the size of the financing programme in which it offers low-cost loans to investors who purchase new consumer loans bundled up as asset-backed securities. But to do so it will require more risk capital from the Obama Treasury, since the Fed is not legally permitted to lend with some expected loss.
Fed officials, however, believe they legally can buy Fannie and Freddie securities without limit since these securities are backed by the US government.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ceace2c-d6ca-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html
when you look at ADJ M base…..at least I am scratching head, 75% of all money created in 2 months…..and not working yet?
To fund these operations it is expanding bank reserves rapidly – creating money in a similar way to if it were printing dollar bills.
The Fed is eager to increase the size of the financing programme in which it offers low-cost loans to investors who purchase new consumer loans bundled up as asset-backed securities. But to do so it will require more risk capital from the Obama Treasury, since the Fed is not legally permitted to lend with some expected loss.
Fed officials, however, believe they legally can buy Fannie and Freddie securities without limit since these securities are backed by the US government.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ceace2c-d6ca-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html
when you look at ADJ M base…..at least I am scratching head, 75% of all money created in 2 months…..and not working yet?
Friday, January 02, 2009
"NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/30/markets/2009_look_ahead/index.htm?postversion=2009010120
Idiots still at the wheel? Are we at "fair value?"
Earnings earnings earnings
Largest collapse in commodities in history
Record LOW yield on 30 yr bond
Record expansion of Adj monetary base
record collapse in housing
Banks still frozen.....NO BOTTOM until we see credit expanding as a trend again IMHO
Not even taking a breather http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
And these genius' will be able to control THIS if it ever gets INTO real economy?
D
Idiots still at the wheel? Are we at "fair value?"
Earnings earnings earnings
Largest collapse in commodities in history
Record LOW yield on 30 yr bond
Record expansion of Adj monetary base
record collapse in housing
Banks still frozen.....NO BOTTOM until we see credit expanding as a trend again IMHO
Not even taking a breather http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
And these genius' will be able to control THIS if it ever gets INTO real economy?
D
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