SHORT SQUEEZE Into opex Fri....... new bull mkt? you think so?
D
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
TUESDAY PM MARKET WRAP
HEY, must be new bull market......why stop at 200 let's jump right to the 50 EMA because all of a sudden life is great again......
TUESDAY AM CHART OF DAY
WHere's the Chinese export miracle? IF EUROPE is really going to get "hot" by ZIMBABWE measures to prosperity.....wouldn't China be PRIME beneficiary?
D
Monday, June 14, 2010
REASON FOR RALLY IN STOCKS
FLOW OF FUNDS.......WEAKNESS IN THE US $........
Stocks rise yet equity funds has net OUTFLOWS last week....Bonds still favored.
Without Gov stimulus what is demand? May home purchase apps nose dived to an ugly 13 year low.
American public can't handle truth? WHY did Obama misrepresent the jobs data.......using temp gov hires to prove economy was growing stronger "MINUTE BY MINUTE"?
Maybe he could have enlightened us WHY FOOD STAMP USAGE HAS SOARED TO A NEW ALL TIME HIGH OF 40 MILLION PEOPLE?
Folks for now we appear to be in a trading ZONE, let's see where they can take this thing up and then we can asess if it has legs and a bottom of some kind is in.
D
Stocks rise yet equity funds has net OUTFLOWS last week....Bonds still favored.Without Gov stimulus what is demand? May home purchase apps nose dived to an ugly 13 year low.
American public can't handle truth? WHY did Obama misrepresent the jobs data.......using temp gov hires to prove economy was growing stronger "MINUTE BY MINUTE"?
Maybe he could have enlightened us WHY FOOD STAMP USAGE HAS SOARED TO A NEW ALL TIME HIGH OF 40 MILLION PEOPLE?
Folks for now we appear to be in a trading ZONE, let's see where they can take this thing up and then we can asess if it has legs and a bottom of some kind is in.
D
LONG TERM DOW CHART
LOng term Secular BULL moves are followed by SECULAR BEAR themes that can last 10-16 years. Last time the BULL extended beyond the channel in an exagerated bubble move was 1929 and what followed was a trip to the bottom of that channel....chances are that is what the future holds.....it certainly is worth considering.
If the job of the bear market is to restore order, remove the excesses, and show values well below known values.....has this bear finished its job?
When the leaders like Obama and Bernanke do not speak the truth, most tools taken out of the shed...why not use deception?
FUTURES pointing to BIG OPEN.......charade continues..
D
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Saturday, June 12, 2010
MARKETS WITHOUT GUARDRAILS
I THINK THIS ARTICLE NAILS IT.....read it here
"Prices in the stock market, for instance, flap around as computers decide whether the institution should be a buyer or seller at a certain level. This has led us into the unknown, as explained by the Financial Times: “An explosion in trading propelled by computers is raising fears that trading platforms could be knocked out by rogue trades triggered by systems running out of control.”
12 90% volume days in 2 months, this is outright craziness and a symptom of our corrupt and controlled markets, there is nothing free about them.
I am worried old tried and true analysis may prove futile in helping to predict future price action as human emotion is not the only thing we are guaging with computer program high frequency trading dominating the overall volumes.
Let them put in all kinds of circuit breakers, computers have no emotions.
D
"Prices in the stock market, for instance, flap around as computers decide whether the institution should be a buyer or seller at a certain level. This has led us into the unknown, as explained by the Financial Times: “An explosion in trading propelled by computers is raising fears that trading platforms could be knocked out by rogue trades triggered by systems running out of control.”
12 90% volume days in 2 months, this is outright craziness and a symptom of our corrupt and controlled markets, there is nothing free about them.
I am worried old tried and true analysis may prove futile in helping to predict future price action as human emotion is not the only thing we are guaging with computer program high frequency trading dominating the overall volumes.
Let them put in all kinds of circuit breakers, computers have no emotions.
D
IS DEFLATION LIKELY?
Perenial BEAR PRECHTER sheds some light on that possibility.
In my mind, employment is the key indicator. A BROAD Pickup in hiring would signal strengthening economy. BUT with 4 week moving average of claims recently RISING to 463,000 a week, it is hard to find ANY proof the trend is improving to any certain degree.
4 week average smooths out any anomalies, we need to see it below 400,000 consistantly. Trend is to pay down debt, save vs take on expanding debt. A tightening of credit and contraction not on par with sustainable recovery.
Yelnick post "BIG TEASE IS BACK" some EWT counts
D
In my mind, employment is the key indicator. A BROAD Pickup in hiring would signal strengthening economy. BUT with 4 week moving average of claims recently RISING to 463,000 a week, it is hard to find ANY proof the trend is improving to any certain degree.
4 week average smooths out any anomalies, we need to see it below 400,000 consistantly. Trend is to pay down debt, save vs take on expanding debt. A tightening of credit and contraction not on par with sustainable recovery.
Yelnick post "BIG TEASE IS BACK" some EWT counts
D
BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN?
We're BACK!!! Stocks have momo? Rally again comes with volume receding. Rumors of big players coming in buying SPX futures just when it looked like the market would fall apart...fact or fiction?
Next week will be telling. The 200 EMA is right there.
The 50 is crashing down towards it, that also usually offers resistance. MOST trading not done by humans....what will the boxes do?
As Noland quantified:
"A semblance of stabilization returned to European debt markets this week, supporting a bounce in global equities. "
Cheer the hire of temp census workers, cheer the loss of benefits(drop in continuing claims) as proof the economy is expanding....what a crazy world we live in!
JUST since April we have had 12 90% VOLUME DAYS!!! 8 downers, 4 uppers. This is unprecedented action.
There is some indication, a bottom of some kind is in place, at least we have our parameters set. IT doesn't matter whether I like the economic backdrop or not. BUT there are also techical warning signs that the decline will resume shortly. I mean if a bottom is in, if this is BULLMKT WHY constsantly do we have MORE and expanding volume on the declines and LES decreasing volume on the rallies?
Hallmark of the market is to keep the majority guesssing.
D
Friday, June 11, 2010
WHAT IS MONEY? Duratek Style
Paper? FIAT? OK what backs it up? "In gd we trust? Federal Reserve note...I bet you and try it, ask 100 people and see if they know what a federal reserve note is.
It is our currency and add "this note is legal tender for ALL debts, public and private"
WHY? because we say so. GOLD? well we know the Inca Indians, Romans....and before all cherrished it....all that glittered......we know we had that STAMPEDE out West, and strip mined the rain forests of Brazil....the Congo......is that REAL MONEY?
GOLD, SILVER have NO DEBTS against them, they flucuate in value, but they NEVER have any debt against them....paper and electronic money is what passes for money....light a match to it, or get hacked and what ya got?
KNow what happens when you lose control? one can spend more than they actually have, CREDIT and BANK LOANS were to help our econmy grow.... how banks made money.....on the interest.
To be able to lend, banks lured in deposits by offering a fair rate of interest.....NOT ANYMORE?
BIG BANKS go to the "Federal Reserve" to get money to loan at a reduced price...a guarantee profit margin UNLESS one defaults.
You can make "funny money" too easy to get, loan it to anyone and set a cycle of defaults that crash down on the speculative cycle of excess......
We have 2 cycles, EXPANSION and CONTRACTION......it is the latter right now, not condusive to growing economies. IT WONT CANT change overnight.
Attempts to stimulate economy have BACKFIRED! AS it has in Japan for 20 years after their debt bubble popped.
DID bailing out the banks help? Are we creating jobs? Housing revived? OUCH
Now not just banks, or companies need bailing out but entire countries!!! Back to MONEY, what do the others use to finance these bailouts?
It is an illusion that we accpet paper instead of rocks or donuts for trade, when real money is glittering. REAL money is not very liquid, hard to transport, not practical for commerce, but many agree and use it to STORE WEALTH.
I am not TOO optimistic about what is going on, problems not addressed, changes not in the works, same guard...at the door...
Its an INSIDERS GAME.....and if it is PAPER we trade and value the more of anything around the less valuable it is.
And when something can just be printed w/o any restrictions, that is worrisome. The difference between Greece and the US is we print our own money.
Little guy isn't sniffing much! OLD joke.....we are the MOLES in the HOLE....and when the papa mole and momma mole go to the opening and look out, what do the baby moles smell?
MOLEASSES
STocks made NEW ALL TIME HIGHS In 2007......1980-2007 is 27 years.....how long will this SECULAR BEAR RUN? 10-16 years IMHO....gd help us
Duratek
It is our currency and add "this note is legal tender for ALL debts, public and private"
WHY? because we say so. GOLD? well we know the Inca Indians, Romans....and before all cherrished it....all that glittered......we know we had that STAMPEDE out West, and strip mined the rain forests of Brazil....the Congo......is that REAL MONEY?
GOLD, SILVER have NO DEBTS against them, they flucuate in value, but they NEVER have any debt against them....paper and electronic money is what passes for money....light a match to it, or get hacked and what ya got?
KNow what happens when you lose control? one can spend more than they actually have, CREDIT and BANK LOANS were to help our econmy grow.... how banks made money.....on the interest.
To be able to lend, banks lured in deposits by offering a fair rate of interest.....NOT ANYMORE?
BIG BANKS go to the "Federal Reserve" to get money to loan at a reduced price...a guarantee profit margin UNLESS one defaults.
You can make "funny money" too easy to get, loan it to anyone and set a cycle of defaults that crash down on the speculative cycle of excess......
We have 2 cycles, EXPANSION and CONTRACTION......it is the latter right now, not condusive to growing economies. IT WONT CANT change overnight.
Attempts to stimulate economy have BACKFIRED! AS it has in Japan for 20 years after their debt bubble popped.
DID bailing out the banks help? Are we creating jobs? Housing revived? OUCH
Now not just banks, or companies need bailing out but entire countries!!! Back to MONEY, what do the others use to finance these bailouts?
It is an illusion that we accpet paper instead of rocks or donuts for trade, when real money is glittering. REAL money is not very liquid, hard to transport, not practical for commerce, but many agree and use it to STORE WEALTH.
I am not TOO optimistic about what is going on, problems not addressed, changes not in the works, same guard...at the door...
Its an INSIDERS GAME.....and if it is PAPER we trade and value the more of anything around the less valuable it is.
And when something can just be printed w/o any restrictions, that is worrisome. The difference between Greece and the US is we print our own money.
Little guy isn't sniffing much! OLD joke.....we are the MOLES in the HOLE....and when the papa mole and momma mole go to the opening and look out, what do the baby moles smell?
MOLEASSES
STocks made NEW ALL TIME HIGHS In 2007......1980-2007 is 27 years.....how long will this SECULAR BEAR RUN? 10-16 years IMHO....gd help us
Duratek
CONFIDENCE SOARS (just kidding)
How does MSM play this up? We're not even back to the worst it was after 911 !!
DOW DAILY VIEW UPDATED CLOSEUP
There's our setup.....no change of trend BACK to resumption of rally that began in MArch of 2009 IMHO.....not yet
D
CHINESE CONUNDRUM
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE DEFLATING, FORMING POSSIBLE HEAD AND SHOULDERS
"Market jumps on huge burst in CHinese manufacturing...48%?????...." REALLY??
"Market jumps on huge burst in CHinese manufacturing...48%?????...." REALLY??
from 2009 daily reckoning
"Chinese officials have a funny way of counting. When products are shipped from the factory, for example, they are counted as ‘sales’ even though no one may actually buy them."
"Chinese officials have a funny way of counting. When products are shipped from the factory, for example, they are counted as ‘sales’ even though no one may actually buy them."
Sorry if I don't buy this "remarkable" growth story. Let's get this straight, most of the world is mired in a Recession, 8 M added to unemployed here since 2007 or MORE. European economies near bankrupt, bailouts.....contraction of bank lending.........but Chinese exports grew 48% last month?????? get that BLEEP'g fish hook out of my mouth.....what is it and where's it going???
EXCUSE ME FOR BEING SKEPTICAL LOOK at above SSEC stock index action......if there was a Chinese miracle wouldn't Chinese stocks catch FIRE??????? do YOU see a parabolic reaction? didn't think so, what I see if a CHinese market deflating, in a BEAR MKT since last AUGUST
LIBOR is LOW when comparing to historical higher rates back to 2000, BUT it rose when European crisis began and rates are exactly where they were at those highs, unmoved by all the crisis is over hype BS.
I am wary of that ARMS INDEX SPIKE chart I posted. I am wary of the deflating ADJ M BASE CHART I just posted link.
The OTHER reason given for 270 PT rally!!! almost 98% up volume...WAS???? "drop in continuing claims by 250,000" AYKM?????? AYKD??????? ONE MILLION will drop off in the coming months because? they found jobs? NO....99 weeks of benefits have exhausted....now maybe they were sucking the gov teet here.....and now forced to actually look....I have my doubts.
Technically....here we come, the weekend......FRIDAY follow up rally day, near the underside of 200 Exponential Moving Average....been here before......all this boo hoo noise sometimes don't matter.....do as I DO, not as I am polled.
Duratek
Thursday, June 10, 2010
THURSDAY MARKET WRAP
Late update* Todays action was very strong, and confirmed 90% upside volume, with follow thru FRI....ST bottom at least might be in....it never really matters why....just ahead lies the 200 EMA, we'll find out more very shortly.
Strong rally moved prices up substantially, especially in the Transports which were up over 4%.
WHat does this all mean? Is the correction over? Are we on our way to new highs?
I would need to take off my fundamental hat, and put on my technical hat, the one that doesn't ask questions.
We're doing one of 2 things, test of lows complete, OR consolidating the decline. For now as all of the actcion has been taking place UNDER the 200 EMA......until it breaks and holds above, I don't think decline is over.
I did say one of my tools (but not ALL) signalled a bear market is here. It reads today 35.55, it would take a break of prior high 66.48 for me to change my view.....based on this one methodology. I could of course be wrong, or the indicator could stop being predictive....but it has as I said been pretty good, better than good.
SO we're back to the 200 EMA, black boxes watching, don't care what the stories say, just care about the action.....none of this seems real to life on the streets.
D
Strong rally moved prices up substantially, especially in the Transports which were up over 4%.WHat does this all mean? Is the correction over? Are we on our way to new highs?
I would need to take off my fundamental hat, and put on my technical hat, the one that doesn't ask questions.
We're doing one of 2 things, test of lows complete, OR consolidating the decline. For now as all of the actcion has been taking place UNDER the 200 EMA......until it breaks and holds above, I don't think decline is over.
I did say one of my tools (but not ALL) signalled a bear market is here. It reads today 35.55, it would take a break of prior high 66.48 for me to change my view.....based on this one methodology. I could of course be wrong, or the indicator could stop being predictive....but it has as I said been pretty good, better than good.
SO we're back to the 200 EMA, black boxes watching, don't care what the stories say, just care about the action.....none of this seems real to life on the streets.
D
PROSPERITY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER
Henry Blodgett digs up some interesting comparisons and wisdom. I will follow in a bit with chart that includes todays action.
D
D
REASON FOR RALLY GIVEN
"The Labor Department said new claims for unemployment fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 456,000. While that figure fell short of economists' forecast, investors were heartened by figures showing total claims last week dropped by the largest amount in almost a year. Total unemployment benefit rolls fell by 255,000 to 4.5 million.
On its face the drop is good news but there it could also indicate that people have run out of their state benefits and are moving to longer-term federal benefits. "
GOOD HEAVENS, these bastards will grasp at anything!!! people are plum giving uP!!!
ONE MILLION are coming off 99 weeks of bennies.......say no more....."castles built of sand slip into the sea eventually"
D
On its face the drop is good news but there it could also indicate that people have run out of their state benefits and are moving to longer-term federal benefits. "
GOOD HEAVENS, these bastards will grasp at anything!!! people are plum giving uP!!!
ONE MILLION are coming off 99 weeks of bennies.......say no more....."castles built of sand slip into the sea eventually"
D
'DEBT SPREADING LIKE A CANCER
BLACK SWAN AUTHOR
Off she goes.....many "experts" now calling for SPX 1250......and reasons? JOB DATA??? WTF??
D
Off she goes.....many "experts" now calling for SPX 1250......and reasons? JOB DATA??? WTF??
D
NOT SO MOVING AM DATA
AM DATA
4 week moving average of jobless claims RISE 2,500 to 463,000 !!!!!!!! What have I been saying? 14 months into supposed recovery I still see 4 wk MA rising? at 463,000???
I ask you, how is THIS supportive to economic growth? HEY, let the market rally for whatever the reason, who knows I am growing fur for NO good reason....I DO NOT LIKE THE DATA,
I DO NOT LIKE THE BACKDROP, I DO NOT LIKE THE TECHNICAL PICTURE
D
4 week moving average of jobless claims RISE 2,500 to 463,000 !!!!!!!! What have I been saying? 14 months into supposed recovery I still see 4 wk MA rising? at 463,000???
I ask you, how is THIS supportive to economic growth? HEY, let the market rally for whatever the reason, who knows I am growing fur for NO good reason....I DO NOT LIKE THE DATA,
I DO NOT LIKE THE BACKDROP, I DO NOT LIKE THE TECHNICAL PICTURE
D
WHAT'S WRONG WITH INDUSTRIAL GIANT ALCOA?
Is a 40% DROP from rally high a BULLISH or BEARISH PHENOM?
Adtt'L thoughts. LIBOR RATE again remains elevated and unchanged, EURO remains weak at 1.20 signs of improvement here would be encouraging.
Reported today "BANK REPOSESSIONS REACH RECORD" how do we get to V haped recovery with the elements that got us here reaching records?
D
IS THE TRIN SIGNALLING DANGER DANGER AHEAD?
From PLANET YELNICK'S TYPEPAD (most excellent resource)
You are encouraged to follow the links I provide and study the material. You MUST make effort to educate yourself, maybe that's why you are here, in ever growing numbers of that I appreciate it. 6 years of sticking with it, posting on regular basis and word of mouth have paid off. (I obviously don't advertise my blog). ABout a year ago I also switched to early morning and after market postings as a regular feature and a weekend wrap too. AS I can all during day I throw stuff up on the blog.
I will go from using charts (which some have told me they don't understand) to using articles and my writing about fundamentals and other things. IT all works together to paint the picture and I try to appeal to all different types of people/investors......the effort is worth it....just stick with it.
Just as in politics, we can NO LONGER just vote party lines, or vote for someone because they promise to do stuff, they all do that. I think it's great this country elected a BLACK PRES. but that in of itself doesn't guarantee he will be great.....not a reason to vote for someone....we need to know more before we press the button if we can. To get elected maybe you cant really say much....
Market futures are green and point to triple digit open...whoopieeeeee
Duratek
You are encouraged to follow the links I provide and study the material. You MUST make effort to educate yourself, maybe that's why you are here, in ever growing numbers of that I appreciate it. 6 years of sticking with it, posting on regular basis and word of mouth have paid off. (I obviously don't advertise my blog). ABout a year ago I also switched to early morning and after market postings as a regular feature and a weekend wrap too. AS I can all during day I throw stuff up on the blog.I will go from using charts (which some have told me they don't understand) to using articles and my writing about fundamentals and other things. IT all works together to paint the picture and I try to appeal to all different types of people/investors......the effort is worth it....just stick with it.
Just as in politics, we can NO LONGER just vote party lines, or vote for someone because they promise to do stuff, they all do that. I think it's great this country elected a BLACK PRES. but that in of itself doesn't guarantee he will be great.....not a reason to vote for someone....we need to know more before we press the button if we can. To get elected maybe you cant really say much....
Market futures are green and point to triple digit open...whoopieeeeee
Duratek
NO PLACE TO HIDE
ROCK AND A HARD PLACE HAVE ARRIVED
Overnight the NIKK added some but there was no follow through in the CHinese market.
Certainly the market is TRYING to put in a bottom, as it always does during a correction, so far demand has not been able to sustain a rebound past resistance.
We will revisit these areas in my next chart. IMHO there is NO reason to guess, there have been a few initial bear sightings, not everything has clicked over.....but enough to warrant caution.
Government austerity does not lead to economic expansion when you consider almost 100% of current rebound has been direct result of FED and GOV stimulus efforts, of which almost all is behind us.
We have also seen with the employment reports, the private sector in those views is not contributing much in job growth. HOW can we move ahead until enough jobs begin to be created? WTHOUT STATISTICAL evidence even leaning in that direction, to support this 80% rally..based on not only recovery but a MONSTER ONE a V SHAPED ONE.....do you see or feel a V SHAPED RECOVERY? Let me know will you?
The stock market can give us that heads up......and wouldn't we all welcome that? Would it upset you if I got bullish? I can you know.......just to warn you. Who knows maybe even Manute will return or maybe he never left? (inside joke)
Duratek
Overnight the NIKK added some but there was no follow through in the CHinese market.
Certainly the market is TRYING to put in a bottom, as it always does during a correction, so far demand has not been able to sustain a rebound past resistance.
We will revisit these areas in my next chart. IMHO there is NO reason to guess, there have been a few initial bear sightings, not everything has clicked over.....but enough to warrant caution.
Government austerity does not lead to economic expansion when you consider almost 100% of current rebound has been direct result of FED and GOV stimulus efforts, of which almost all is behind us.
We have also seen with the employment reports, the private sector in those views is not contributing much in job growth. HOW can we move ahead until enough jobs begin to be created? WTHOUT STATISTICAL evidence even leaning in that direction, to support this 80% rally..based on not only recovery but a MONSTER ONE a V SHAPED ONE.....do you see or feel a V SHAPED RECOVERY? Let me know will you?
The stock market can give us that heads up......and wouldn't we all welcome that? Would it upset you if I got bullish? I can you know.......just to warn you. Who knows maybe even Manute will return or maybe he never left? (inside joke)
Duratek
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
BULLY in 2003-2007
Cuurent action please contrast with below (2003-2007 real BULL!) . 50 could of course bounce and off we go again, currently it doesn't appear to me that is what will happen....stay tuned.
Notic ehow 50 EMA stays above the rising 200 EMA.....when it crossed in 2003 BULL IS ON!
NEWEST EXCUSE
Top Stories (FROM YHOO FINANCE.COM)
Stocks Climb After Bernanke Remarks; Dow Clears 10,000- AP
The Dow Jones industrials climbed back above 10,000 Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said debt problems in Europe might only amount to a "modest" drag on the U.S. economy if the financial markets can halt their slide.
Bernanke says recovery on track despite headwinds- AP
See below youtube video for what Bernanke said before and during financial crisis......who would listen to this dope? none of 'em have any cred!
D
Stocks Climb After Bernanke Remarks; Dow Clears 10,000- AP
The Dow Jones industrials climbed back above 10,000 Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said debt problems in Europe might only amount to a "modest" drag on the U.S. economy if the financial markets can halt their slide.
Bernanke says recovery on track despite headwinds- AP
See below youtube video for what Bernanke said before and during financial crisis......who would listen to this dope? none of 'em have any cred!
D
CLOSE UP SPX ACTION
Isn't the diving 50 EMA going to slice into the 200 EMA? if trend changes so be it, long way from proving uptrend ready to resume. IMHO
D
MY PROPRIETARY TREND INDICATOR IS FLASHING BEAR MARKET ALERT
I sent my chart out to a few colleagues, I am sorry I cannot post here as it is my baby....here is my findings though in my conversations this AM: again JUST MHO.
I wanted to post this on my blog, but IMHO this is a chart NOONE else is using. WHat perfect, simplicity.
When I originally thought of this I wanted to see if there was a connection(I would use levels of investor sentiment, guage price and reaction to levels of stress over a certain time frame), but could it give me a level...a # I could quantify with a bottom( or top).... I tried to back test with history as far back as I could go.....this chart I cleaned up this AM and IMHO it is really definitive....another very useful TOOL in shed.
You see unique dbl bottom at 16 in early 2009? YES I saw it....why didn't I use it!!!!??? especially after MACD cross a tad later.....would have scored huge.....well my BIZ (still) horrible....my emotions were not in check.....I didn't feel appropriate to risk....couldn't come up with ease in program...maybe also wasn't sure this chart was real......and lastly the level I thought we were headed was single digits....that never came monthly.....and I let it pass
(hindsight is great, real time never so easy)
NOW...and certainly IF MACD crosses....being LONG would be foolish. IMHO would signal BEAR MKT has returned. MACD CHOPPED between 2004-2007 but that was during bull so we could argue until it crossed down definitively in 2007 then it signalled bear alert.
Don't pick this apart, just look at the timing at the arrows...IMHO for me this speaks for itself. (called every top and bottom since 1990) this is MY observation.
SHARP turndown from 66 as was case in 2002 tells me this WAS a bear mkt rally. Volume "has been problem entire primary trend" ....it is warning and volume IS a problem. You cannot dismiss what doesn't fit your theory. Expanding volumes on declines and receding on rallies, the HIGH VOLATILITY are all earmarks of a BEAR MKT. MACD and other MOMO's DID register divergences at April highs....some did not, but definately some did.
A market controlled by hedge funds and HFT.....90% days like water have lost most predictive abilities.....things are different.....some things the same.
I would like to be proven wrong, I am just dude on a blog using my abilities of observation and market knowledge of past 15 years......but isn't the market an ODDS game?
ODDS favor you, then be long my friend, if odds swing to the house....protect yourself, be cautious.
Ask yourself, is this a time to be GREEDY or FEARFUL? DO we have a true bottom at hand? IT IS very hard to STAY LONG during a BULL MKT.....with long term DIVIDEND YIELDS and PE RATIOS never hitting prior SECULAR BEAR LOWS.....as pointed out by Richard R many times per Dow Theory.....yeah my SPidey senses are tingling.
I'm not asking you to do anything, I am trying to help you think for yourself, and survival is what i'm after.....greed has left the house for now. SHOW ME A TEST OF MARCH 2009 LOWS.....different story....then you maybe take a LONG TERM horrizon view, many GOOD companies will be selling at never seen values and yields will be high enough to compensate for risk.....and if wrong.....well you never bet the house,,,,I personally would EASE In....and add as TREND TURNS......we miss the tops, the bottoms....and hope to ride the SWEET SPOTS with less risk
Savers, risk averse are getting HOSED by GOV and FED.....trying to FORCE those into risky investments.....as the SHILLS parade across MSM and even the PRESIDENT makes mountains out of molehills.....if our President REALLY believes that the government creatng almost ALL the jobs in MAY report, temp at that!!!!...is a sign that "economy is gaining strength minute by minute,,,," be very afraid.....dude is either LYING or is delusional, or is controlled as PUPPET and reads whatever is on prompter without proofing it.....or all above.
PS....being wrong and on sidelines missing some rally if miracle bull exists,,,,is better than being IN the market fully exposed and being wrong (about BULL that is)
ALL THIS JMHO....FWIW
Duratek
I wanted to post this on my blog, but IMHO this is a chart NOONE else is using. WHat perfect, simplicity.
When I originally thought of this I wanted to see if there was a connection(I would use levels of investor sentiment, guage price and reaction to levels of stress over a certain time frame), but could it give me a level...a # I could quantify with a bottom( or top).... I tried to back test with history as far back as I could go.....this chart I cleaned up this AM and IMHO it is really definitive....another very useful TOOL in shed.
You see unique dbl bottom at 16 in early 2009? YES I saw it....why didn't I use it!!!!??? especially after MACD cross a tad later.....would have scored huge.....well my BIZ (still) horrible....my emotions were not in check.....I didn't feel appropriate to risk....couldn't come up with ease in program...maybe also wasn't sure this chart was real......and lastly the level I thought we were headed was single digits....that never came monthly.....and I let it pass
(hindsight is great, real time never so easy)
NOW...and certainly IF MACD crosses....being LONG would be foolish. IMHO would signal BEAR MKT has returned. MACD CHOPPED between 2004-2007 but that was during bull so we could argue until it crossed down definitively in 2007 then it signalled bear alert.
Don't pick this apart, just look at the timing at the arrows...IMHO for me this speaks for itself. (called every top and bottom since 1990) this is MY observation.
SHARP turndown from 66 as was case in 2002 tells me this WAS a bear mkt rally. Volume "has been problem entire primary trend" ....it is warning and volume IS a problem. You cannot dismiss what doesn't fit your theory. Expanding volumes on declines and receding on rallies, the HIGH VOLATILITY are all earmarks of a BEAR MKT. MACD and other MOMO's DID register divergences at April highs....some did not, but definately some did.
A market controlled by hedge funds and HFT.....90% days like water have lost most predictive abilities.....things are different.....some things the same.
I would like to be proven wrong, I am just dude on a blog using my abilities of observation and market knowledge of past 15 years......but isn't the market an ODDS game?
ODDS favor you, then be long my friend, if odds swing to the house....protect yourself, be cautious.
Ask yourself, is this a time to be GREEDY or FEARFUL? DO we have a true bottom at hand? IT IS very hard to STAY LONG during a BULL MKT.....with long term DIVIDEND YIELDS and PE RATIOS never hitting prior SECULAR BEAR LOWS.....as pointed out by Richard R many times per Dow Theory.....yeah my SPidey senses are tingling.
I'm not asking you to do anything, I am trying to help you think for yourself, and survival is what i'm after.....greed has left the house for now. SHOW ME A TEST OF MARCH 2009 LOWS.....different story....then you maybe take a LONG TERM horrizon view, many GOOD companies will be selling at never seen values and yields will be high enough to compensate for risk.....and if wrong.....well you never bet the house,,,,I personally would EASE In....and add as TREND TURNS......we miss the tops, the bottoms....and hope to ride the SWEET SPOTS with less risk
Savers, risk averse are getting HOSED by GOV and FED.....trying to FORCE those into risky investments.....as the SHILLS parade across MSM and even the PRESIDENT makes mountains out of molehills.....if our President REALLY believes that the government creatng almost ALL the jobs in MAY report, temp at that!!!!...is a sign that "economy is gaining strength minute by minute,,,," be very afraid.....dude is either LYING or is delusional, or is controlled as PUPPET and reads whatever is on prompter without proofing it.....or all above.
PS....being wrong and on sidelines missing some rally if miracle bull exists,,,,is better than being IN the market fully exposed and being wrong (about BULL that is)
ALL THIS JMHO....FWIW
Duratek
4 WEAK AVERAGE
No misprint
This is consistant with a loss of 80,000 jobs a week. Claims 4 week moving average needs to fall below 400,000 to see any improvement. This far into V-SHAPED recovery......this is not consistant with ANY prior recovery pattern.
If people are not getting jobs, decent paying jobs, that is why with record low mortgage rates you can get almost no interest in buying a home....a 13 year LOW.
I pray for recovery, we need it NOW, but all we have done is BUY what we currently call recovery, and further indebted the government....TAXES WILL RISE further hindering recovery efforts.
MANY PENSION FUNDS are DEEP in the red, here is just CALIFORNIA. Problem is they PROJECT 8% anual returns and when they stuck heavily to bonds, during the BULL all was well.
Last 10 years stocks have gone NOWHERE, but most pension funds stuck to a heavily stock market exposed protfolio.....almost no one is talking about this. And it has hit MOST State pension funds.....IMHO a CRISIS
Duratek
This is consistant with a loss of 80,000 jobs a week. Claims 4 week moving average needs to fall below 400,000 to see any improvement. This far into V-SHAPED recovery......this is not consistant with ANY prior recovery pattern.If people are not getting jobs, decent paying jobs, that is why with record low mortgage rates you can get almost no interest in buying a home....a 13 year LOW.
I pray for recovery, we need it NOW, but all we have done is BUY what we currently call recovery, and further indebted the government....TAXES WILL RISE further hindering recovery efforts.
MANY PENSION FUNDS are DEEP in the red, here is just CALIFORNIA. Problem is they PROJECT 8% anual returns and when they stuck heavily to bonds, during the BULL all was well.
Last 10 years stocks have gone NOWHERE, but most pension funds stuck to a heavily stock market exposed protfolio.....almost no one is talking about this. And it has hit MOST State pension funds.....IMHO a CRISIS
Duratek
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
COPPER TARNISHES
Broke that support line I drew, so NO dbl bottom......I can't see this as bullish for industry
D
FINALLY A SHAMAN
BULLISH CASE FOR STOCKS I don't need to comment here do I? just trying to present the other side....this once.
But DO READ THIS from HUSSMAN posted a few days ago
AT zero hedge....."we reccomend go to cash"
But DO READ THIS from HUSSMAN posted a few days ago
AT zero hedge....."we reccomend go to cash"
HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN!
IMHO another FLY in the ointment of primary bull market uptrend callers....
Duratek
UP MY ALLEY. HON INC FALTERS
I think the stock rose to heights not supported by the fundamentals of its sales of largest component, office furniture. Of all things, in this envrionment, July brigs a price hike! Hmmm when companies hire maybe they need new desks, chairs, files....but they left behind 8 MILLION people worth of the stuff didn't they since 2007?
Sitting on critical support at current price
D
ECRI INDEX FADING
ECRI Leading Economic Index at 42-week Low; Recovery is already fading
Read more: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/ecri-leading-economic-index
But wait here, just in from the prophet djini
Bernanke: Recovery 'won't feel terrific'
4:36am: Federal Reserve chairman won't say if he fears double-dip recession in interview at Washington forum. More
Romer: We are adding jobs
Monday, June 07, 2010
CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN
**New closing low for the DOW for the move, we didnt get snap back rally today as promised. ALL the action taking place under the 200 EMA....technical picture not so hot.
Todays down volume was actually a heft 86% of total volume *(revised 5:43 pm)
Certainly stocks can rise, and will fight the newly established decline...but that day wasn't today.
HUSSMAN FUNDS DIALOGUE "BANDAIDES"
"A few observations. First, I remain convinced that the other shoe to drop is not Greece or Spain or Hungary, but rather a second wave of major credit strains here in the U.S. related to fresh delinquencies from exotic adjustable rate mortgages."
Sales of umbrella's going through the roof.
Just as mortgage rates fall to near historic lows......sales of homes drop to 13 year lows....V SHAPED IS IT?
D
Todays down volume was actually a heft 86% of total volume *(revised 5:43 pm)
Certainly stocks can rise, and will fight the newly established decline...but that day wasn't today.
HUSSMAN FUNDS DIALOGUE "BANDAIDES"
"A few observations. First, I remain convinced that the other shoe to drop is not Greece or Spain or Hungary, but rather a second wave of major credit strains here in the U.S. related to fresh delinquencies from exotic adjustable rate mortgages."
Sales of umbrella's going through the roof.
Just as mortgage rates fall to near historic lows......sales of homes drop to 13 year lows....V SHAPED IS IT?
D
WEAKNESS IN SEMIS
200 day moving average being tested, if blue support line broken in a close, wont be good for overall market.....lots of trades moving into gold.
If market weakens, gold positions that have done well could be sold to raise cash....is there a safe haven?
LIBOR rates remain at elevated levels. So far, not a good response to FRI drubbing. Just a technical market folks, traders see price staying UNDER 200 EMA.....they may begin to layer in shorts.
D
WHAT'S WRONG WITH SOLAR?
Many are suggesting alternative energy sources (especially now with oil catastrophy) ever since Obama got elected would lead to the next great bull market and economic explosion. I ask what happened? This chart and the other ETF of clean energy companies tell a different story.
Maybe this chart will bottom and turn up, but it hasn't yet. Wouldn't we want to be in these ETF'S if this was the next great thing? Let's not lose sight of these companies in the weeks, months ahead.
Futures were deep red overnight, Japan lost 3.8% but futures are flirting green here now....it is normal to see a 2-7 day bounce back after a deep 90% down volume day (Fri).
How do we get out of our economic lethargy without creating stable jobs? DID FRIDAY REPORT dispell the notion of a V-SHAPED recovery?
We will look at the day by day, but as far as making money and protecting assets, I will mainly focus on the intermediate to long term trends.
Corrections in ongoing BULL MKTS are normal, rallies in ongoing bear markets are normal......distinguishing which are which is critical.
Bull markets try to trick you and shake you off, a bull doesn't want everyone riding for free. A BEAR tries to instill hope, lure in more, than crush your skull....and have you panic sell right or near the bottom.....the bull panic you out right before huge run up......surely the LONG TERM (20 years or more?) direction of last 100 years of stock market is UP....but there have been HUGE periods of weak action (SECULAR BEARS) that devour investors for 15 - 20 years.....those we try to avoid or at least allocate more in bonds.
I am concerned bonds WILL become a death trap at some point, people are so desperate for some kind of safe return.
Companies do offer guaranteed accounts, even offer as much as 10% premium on the amount you put in, but you cannot take it out.....it becomes an annuity and is paid out over your lifetime. Recently advertised at 8% a year! AS LONG as company issuing it is around....TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? 8% returns, a 10% bonus guaranteed......
Duratek
Sunday, June 06, 2010
WORRISOME
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Jobs may be coming back, but they aren't the same ones workers were used to.
Many of the jobs employers are adding are temporary or contract positions, rather than traditional full-time jobs with benefits. With unemployment remaining near 10%, employers have their pick of workers willing to accept less secure positions.
How it works in DC you can BUY INFLUENCE
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- Even before the April 20 explosion on its rig off the Louisiana coast, BP spent millions of dollars lobbying Washington's power players. BP will now tap that power and influence as it tries to repair its image.
In 2009, BP (BP) spent $16 million on lobbying, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. This year, it has spent $3.5 million through the end of March.
Many of the jobs employers are adding are temporary or contract positions, rather than traditional full-time jobs with benefits. With unemployment remaining near 10%, employers have their pick of workers willing to accept less secure positions.
How it works in DC you can BUY INFLUENCE
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- Even before the April 20 explosion on its rig off the Louisiana coast, BP spent millions of dollars lobbying Washington's power players. BP will now tap that power and influence as it tries to repair its image.
In 2009, BP (BP) spent $16 million on lobbying, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. This year, it has spent $3.5 million through the end of March.
RALLY MARCH 2009-PRESENT
Strike 1 breaks uptrend line from MArch lows 2009
Strike 2 Falls below 200 EMA and is consolidating there.
Strike 3 IMHO would be 50 Cross of 200
Irrefutable bear sighting IMHO? when 200 joins 50 in marked decline trajectory
Duratek
ALTERNATIVE NOTES, Weekened scribble
What is WRONG with alternative energy?
Friday was a 99% down volume day, rather one sided and nasty and continuing pattern of increasing volume on down days.
Maybe from historical perspective, tops are not made when certain indications also meet with top values, usually breadth etc weakens months in advance of the top.
I did spot other momentum indicators that did signal divergence, so to many this is not a done deal.
I think fundamentally jobs report tough one to get past or excuse away.
ACTION in the stock markets will let us know if its different this time. I hope it is meaning economy can resurrect itself, one has to wonder when GOV is providing most of the spending and job growth.
Under the cloak of mouth pieces chortling the minute by minute growth of economy and prosperity lies a decaying morass of Americans, multiple families living together....losing all hope
Duratek
Saturday, June 05, 2010
OBAMA "ECONOMY IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY"
WHat is this dude sniffing? How does this differ from "there are weapons of mass destruction" ?
WHAT I SAID March 2007
"My conclusion is not that the stock market will collapse next week or even next month, and maybe not this year, but it is clear to me, that the SWEET SPOT is gone, comparisons will be tough, we have seen the best and any additional gains from here will be sporadic, and in this man's opinion not worth the risk."
entire post running out of gas
You can't make this stuff up. I have a knack, I am onto the right technical analysis, I read the right people, I have the best subs.....I let it swirl around my brain, add in what I SEE day to day week to week......and take my BEST GUESS.
I see it as managing RISK. Most people never have too much cash they raise, they just let it ride no matter what.......the insiders don't want you to leave early, they don't want you in early either. With near 60% or more of volume coming from those smokey rooms.....who's best interest is going to be served?
NOT ON MY FING WATCH!
Duratek ( I told you I have dirty mouth, sorry)
entire post running out of gas
You can't make this stuff up. I have a knack, I am onto the right technical analysis, I read the right people, I have the best subs.....I let it swirl around my brain, add in what I SEE day to day week to week......and take my BEST GUESS.
I see it as managing RISK. Most people never have too much cash they raise, they just let it ride no matter what.......the insiders don't want you to leave early, they don't want you in early either. With near 60% or more of volume coming from those smokey rooms.....who's best interest is going to be served?
NOT ON MY FING WATCH!
Duratek ( I told you I have dirty mouth, sorry)
DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
"One can say that reflations fueled by marketable-based finance are prone to be dynamic and powerful. Unfortunately, once unleashed, these forces are just as powerful on the downside as during expansionary periods. Payback time comes when greed turns to fear and bull falls victim to bear. Finance proves fickle and unreliable. I fear U.S. financial and economic recoveries were built upon inflated expectations and unjustified confidence. Fleeting confidence now creates myriad risks associated with unmet expectations, disappointment and disillusionment"
Prudentbear.com Please follow link and read Doug's column, one of the best of the net
Duratek
Prudentbear.com Please follow link and read Doug's column, one of the best of the net
Duratek
Friday, June 04, 2010
QUICK MARKET WRAP
I will have something more extensive up tomorrow. Of course you already big downer today...heavy volume...Dow closes under 10K SPX 1040 level is one to watch.
WED 90% downer, Thursday 90% upside....Friday? (dont have stats yet) who woulda thought an ugly Friday? As I said 90% days losing their significance.
This is a low close for the year I believe. 9931.97 Fool some of the people most of the time? not fooling the man on the street....he's living this.
Maybe the GOV should hire all the unemployed....line them all up around the Mexican border....
F....the private sector......FED governers were talking about raising rates? 0% haven't help create jobs....doing MORE harm than good.....Bear is awakening...
Duratek
WED 90% downer, Thursday 90% upside....Friday? (dont have stats yet) who woulda thought an ugly Friday? As I said 90% days losing their significance.
This is a low close for the year I believe. 9931.97 Fool some of the people most of the time? not fooling the man on the street....he's living this.
Maybe the GOV should hire all the unemployed....line them all up around the Mexican border....
F....the private sector......FED governers were talking about raising rates? 0% haven't help create jobs....doing MORE harm than good.....Bear is awakening...
Duratek
The Contrary GUY
I am 55 years old and I am obsessed with the stock market and economy. I am thinking about it night and day...among other things. This is one of my passions, no other way to approach it IMHO.
The market is complex, many times confusing, and hard to figure out. I have spent countless hours educating myself the past 15 years. Learning and understanding charting (technical analysis), trend following, read countless books and endless stream of articles written by some of the best and brightest.
I am intuitive and have keen tools of observation, spotting trends, patterns......signals.
I Have called the last 2 Bear Markets, 2007 posts in the archive here can atetst to what I was saying then, 2000 call was on raging bull......I've learned to take the fur coat off and be open to positive change of trends.....argruably harder for me ! haa
I don't need to sugar coat squat, I mostly try to inform, give you the data and along with my humble 2 cents, try and help you figure out what is here, what may be coming.
I subscribe to multiple services costing $thousands of $$$'s, most of which you cannot get anywhere else. I cannot say directly what they say for the most part, in respect to those subs, but it does come out and influence my commentary.
I don't just go along either, I am in direct conflict with one of my favorite subs, but one must learn to think for themselves, track record is important, so we try to keep an open mind, and do the things that reduce risk when appropriate.
I am firm believer in using MA'S to help spot trend, lots of votes being cast there. You can read until blue in the face, but that may not indicate stock market direction.
I look at commodities (bull mkt) and foreign indexes to help with market calls as well...as we are global economy.
I enjoy writing, I do this for myself, I do this for you.....and do it for NO COST. I cannot give nor will direct reccomendations.....and of course always consult your finacial advisor........I am hopeful you find what I post helpful as the steady influx of readers continues to remain strong and grow.
I have further to go, one day I may have a service where I can provide even more, and specifics......I'm not ready for that yet, and enjoying this very much.
I hope you continue to find value here....
Duratek
The market is complex, many times confusing, and hard to figure out. I have spent countless hours educating myself the past 15 years. Learning and understanding charting (technical analysis), trend following, read countless books and endless stream of articles written by some of the best and brightest.
I am intuitive and have keen tools of observation, spotting trends, patterns......signals.
I Have called the last 2 Bear Markets, 2007 posts in the archive here can atetst to what I was saying then, 2000 call was on raging bull......I've learned to take the fur coat off and be open to positive change of trends.....argruably harder for me ! haa
I don't need to sugar coat squat, I mostly try to inform, give you the data and along with my humble 2 cents, try and help you figure out what is here, what may be coming.
I subscribe to multiple services costing $thousands of $$$'s, most of which you cannot get anywhere else. I cannot say directly what they say for the most part, in respect to those subs, but it does come out and influence my commentary.
I don't just go along either, I am in direct conflict with one of my favorite subs, but one must learn to think for themselves, track record is important, so we try to keep an open mind, and do the things that reduce risk when appropriate.
I am firm believer in using MA'S to help spot trend, lots of votes being cast there. You can read until blue in the face, but that may not indicate stock market direction.
I look at commodities (bull mkt) and foreign indexes to help with market calls as well...as we are global economy.
I enjoy writing, I do this for myself, I do this for you.....and do it for NO COST. I cannot give nor will direct reccomendations.....and of course always consult your finacial advisor........I am hopeful you find what I post helpful as the steady influx of readers continues to remain strong and grow.
I have further to go, one day I may have a service where I can provide even more, and specifics......I'm not ready for that yet, and enjoying this very much.
I hope you continue to find value here....
Duratek
BREAKING NEWS!
PAyrolls increased ONLY 431,000, concensus estimates were for 500,000 and GS upped theirs to 600,000 (partly responsable for big up day? are they that STUPID or fox smart?)
IMPORTANT TIDBIT.....411,000 of the 431,000 were part time CENSUS WORKERS!!!!!!!!!!!
BLLEP ME, I don't want to hear another asshole tell me this is a primary uptrend and we see recovery expanding, everything is rosey.....dont lie to me unemployment rate FELL to 9.7% whoopie de fricken doo....more people just up and left and gave the heck up!
We also watch LIBOR rates, inter bank lending rates remain ELEVATED. Do as I do not as I say?
If I could crawl inside my box and tackle some of those MSM nitiwts I would do it. It's like poking yourself in the eye, why do I do it........hoorah unemployment rate fell.....bad news.....another million gave up!
SO let's get this straight, all the idiot POOHBAH'S go around telling America we're on the right track, things are looking up.....and almost 2 years into historic LOW rates, TRILLIONS of stimulus and bailouts....and the gov is still producing most of the jobs? GET OUT OF MY POCKET!!!!
Throw a brick at CNBLIESMAN.....return to ALice In Wonderland
D
IMPORTANT TIDBIT.....411,000 of the 431,000 were part time CENSUS WORKERS!!!!!!!!!!!
BLLEP ME, I don't want to hear another asshole tell me this is a primary uptrend and we see recovery expanding, everything is rosey.....dont lie to me unemployment rate FELL to 9.7% whoopie de fricken doo....more people just up and left and gave the heck up!
We also watch LIBOR rates, inter bank lending rates remain ELEVATED. Do as I do not as I say?
If I could crawl inside my box and tackle some of those MSM nitiwts I would do it. It's like poking yourself in the eye, why do I do it........hoorah unemployment rate fell.....bad news.....another million gave up!
SO let's get this straight, all the idiot POOHBAH'S go around telling America we're on the right track, things are looking up.....and almost 2 years into historic LOW rates, TRILLIONS of stimulus and bailouts....and the gov is still producing most of the jobs? GET OUT OF MY POCKET!!!!
Throw a brick at CNBLIESMAN.....return to ALice In Wonderland
D
INDUSTRIAL METALS TURN BEARISH
In another troubling sign (TO MOI) copper has tumbled and appears to be enterring a bear market, copper is one of our largest use industrial metals, think new construction.Looks to me like the MA'S are headed for a bear cross. It would take a rise above 200 EMA to rethink this, IMHO.
I touched on this AM data due out at 8:30 this am, how to me I could care less. I know what I see, what people tell me from all across the country, they don't see much of a recovery.
ADJ monetary base continues its contraction.
Yesterday provided the market with a 90% upside day, but since "uptick" rule was abolished and the PROS run the rigged market, I no longer give them much importance....like dime a dozen now.....before they were RARE and very meaningful.
Richard Russel coined the phrase "In a bear market, we ALL lose, those who lose the least win"
PROTECT what you have, think less about risking.
Duratek
Thursday, June 03, 2010
MARKET WRAP
Right there at the 200 EMA, Friday action may be telling.
I am expecting a RAMP attempt from the boxes. GS has been saying they expect a print of 600,000 jobs now not the 500,000 they had estimated.
Can I point out they also say 450,000 of those are "census" hires !!! SO in the real working world 150,000 is the private sector contribution......doesn't that just light your fire?
VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP AWAY DURING THE RALLIES AND surge DURING THE DECLINES, SORRY THAT AIN'T BULL MKT ACTION.
It wouldn't shock me to see the Dow rise to 10,750 area where I had showed a left should had formed, this would complete head and shoulders, just one potential.
They could tell me 1 Million jobs were created......I don't see the economy as the bulls do.....and I ask around.
*That said, today masked buying in the broader indexes, we will be watching the VIX to measure volatility and breadth of any add on advance......they will run with any upbeat employment data, manipulated lying through their teeth or not
D
I am expecting a RAMP attempt from the boxes. GS has been saying they expect a print of 600,000 jobs now not the 500,000 they had estimated.Can I point out they also say 450,000 of those are "census" hires !!! SO in the real working world 150,000 is the private sector contribution......doesn't that just light your fire?
VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP AWAY DURING THE RALLIES AND surge DURING THE DECLINES, SORRY THAT AIN'T BULL MKT ACTION.
It wouldn't shock me to see the Dow rise to 10,750 area where I had showed a left should had formed, this would complete head and shoulders, just one potential.
They could tell me 1 Million jobs were created......I don't see the economy as the bulls do.....and I ask around.
*That said, today masked buying in the broader indexes, we will be watching the VIX to measure volatility and breadth of any add on advance......they will run with any upbeat employment data, manipulated lying through their teeth or not
D
Claims on tap 8:30
Briefing.com data ADP report already out. 55,000 jobs gains in MAY. most "service sector" 41,000 LOST from CONSTRUCTION IN MAY......boy that's encouraging.
We've lost over 8 MILLION JOBS........many of whom been on the dole for 99 WEEKS! this is my jobs hiring uptrend 14 months into the new bull mkt?
Jackass on CNB WHO calls it "robust". "lots of people fired starting new businesses....not captured here" sure they are.....why decline in bank lending?
HOW are they counting ONE MILLION CENSUS HIRES?
D
We've lost over 8 MILLION JOBS........many of whom been on the dole for 99 WEEKS! this is my jobs hiring uptrend 14 months into the new bull mkt?
Jackass on CNB WHO calls it "robust". "lots of people fired starting new businesses....not captured here" sure they are.....why decline in bank lending?
HOW are they counting ONE MILLION CENSUS HIRES?
D
DOW ACTION UPDATED
Price halted at 200 EMA (exponential moving average....more importance put on recent action)
Prices could rise to the 50 EMA....will we form the right shoulder of a would be head and shoulders formation? neckline is in place....stay tuned
Prices could rise to the 50 EMA....will we form the right shoulder of a would be head and shoulders formation? neckline is in place....stay tunedUSING POINT AND FINGER CHARTING
Shows the 1040 level as important support, that's gotta hold. Also shows we're in a bearish count here until upside rows of o's are broken. each box 10 spx points
I have a hard time dignifying this rally from MArch lows as a "primary uptrend" or a NEW BULL MKT. Not with the drop back of fundamentals, not with the volume of HFT, not with contracting bank loans and credit outstanding. Not with new bubble of governement debt issuance.
Not with rates near to levels only seen few times in history, not with the TRILLIONS thrown at this mess, are you happy with the results? Small business, the lifeblood of economy cannot get loans to help survive.
I think the people are waking up to the insiders games, we must get them OUT.
CHINA #3 and maybe most important economy for signs the REFLATION has taken hold.....is not rallying, not buying into THIS.
Velocity money changes hands is not reigniting through the economy......until I see REAL signs.....I can only approach the rally as a counter move in an ongoing SECULAR BEAR MKT.
Income, caution, return of money more important than return on your money.....the very paper tinder we call money that relies on GOVERNMENTS ability to repay debts....how's that going?
WHY DID these idiots lose sight that SAVERS spend their savings.....those who near or at retirement, those not wanting risk.....have little avenue to take.....if setting rates at ZERO doesn't help banks loan, or the people......why leave them there? If we have such a VIBRANT recovery.......as the stock market is saying.....is it? why leave them at ZERO?
Yesterdays traffic to my blog set another record, I will continue to do my best to make this site worth coming back to. 70% of my traffic is returning traffic of that I am pleased!
Duratek
I have a hard time dignifying this rally from MArch lows as a "primary uptrend" or a NEW BULL MKT. Not with the drop back of fundamentals, not with the volume of HFT, not with contracting bank loans and credit outstanding. Not with new bubble of governement debt issuance.Not with rates near to levels only seen few times in history, not with the TRILLIONS thrown at this mess, are you happy with the results? Small business, the lifeblood of economy cannot get loans to help survive.
I think the people are waking up to the insiders games, we must get them OUT.
CHINA #3 and maybe most important economy for signs the REFLATION has taken hold.....is not rallying, not buying into THIS.
Velocity money changes hands is not reigniting through the economy......until I see REAL signs.....I can only approach the rally as a counter move in an ongoing SECULAR BEAR MKT.
Income, caution, return of money more important than return on your money.....the very paper tinder we call money that relies on GOVERNMENTS ability to repay debts....how's that going?
WHY DID these idiots lose sight that SAVERS spend their savings.....those who near or at retirement, those not wanting risk.....have little avenue to take.....if setting rates at ZERO doesn't help banks loan, or the people......why leave them there? If we have such a VIBRANT recovery.......as the stock market is saying.....is it? why leave them at ZERO?
Yesterdays traffic to my blog set another record, I will continue to do my best to make this site worth coming back to. 70% of my traffic is returning traffic of that I am pleased!
Duratek
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
THE MARKET RALLIED BLAH BLAH BLAH
Annalyn Censky, staff reporter, On Wednesday June 2, 2010, 2:09 pm EDT
"The corporate bond market is in the middle of a slump as the appetite for riskier assets has once again dwindled.
No companies issued corporate debt on Friday -- the day before Memorial Day weekend -- and only five sold bonds the day after the long weekend, according to Dealogic, a financial analytics firm. The last time that happened on a trading day was Sept. 4, 2009 -- the Friday before Labor Day weekend.
While this could be partially attributed to the Memorial Day holiday, the slump in corporate bond sales, coupled with rising prices to insure those bonds against default, could be signs that credit markets are tightening again. "
*Folks, prices go up, prices go down, they go up. EVERY rally is buoyed by faltering volume. Until I see technical data to the otherwise, this is all in reaction to the Tuesday 90% down volume day which is usally followed by 2-7 days of rally.
WHO knows maybe good jobs report Friday, BFD Apple is selling their glorified book-mobiles, people will buy anything if you advertise it enough even Taco Bell.
"Geico will save you 15% or more...." maybe they do but I saved near 50% giving ALL STATE my car and home insurance business. The IDIOTS I was with for 20 years never even called to fight......and I was nice enough to let them bid even though they were hosing me.
YOu can't get SHIT (I got dirty mouth) for yield, this is REDICULOUS!!!!!! OLD folks getting HOSED! We're ALL getting hosed.
LOW LOW LOW yield is a deflation theme, its a worried theme.
ALL this rally? and LIBOR rates have NOT come back down.....I find that worrisome.
What is LIBOR?
"The London InterBank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, is the average interest rate charged when banks in the London interbank market borrow unsecured funds from each other."
Duratek
"The corporate bond market is in the middle of a slump as the appetite for riskier assets has once again dwindled.
No companies issued corporate debt on Friday -- the day before Memorial Day weekend -- and only five sold bonds the day after the long weekend, according to Dealogic, a financial analytics firm. The last time that happened on a trading day was Sept. 4, 2009 -- the Friday before Labor Day weekend.
While this could be partially attributed to the Memorial Day holiday, the slump in corporate bond sales, coupled with rising prices to insure those bonds against default, could be signs that credit markets are tightening again. "
*Folks, prices go up, prices go down, they go up. EVERY rally is buoyed by faltering volume. Until I see technical data to the otherwise, this is all in reaction to the Tuesday 90% down volume day which is usally followed by 2-7 days of rally.
WHO knows maybe good jobs report Friday, BFD Apple is selling their glorified book-mobiles, people will buy anything if you advertise it enough even Taco Bell.
"Geico will save you 15% or more...." maybe they do but I saved near 50% giving ALL STATE my car and home insurance business. The IDIOTS I was with for 20 years never even called to fight......and I was nice enough to let them bid even though they were hosing me.
YOu can't get SHIT (I got dirty mouth) for yield, this is REDICULOUS!!!!!! OLD folks getting HOSED! We're ALL getting hosed.
LOW LOW LOW yield is a deflation theme, its a worried theme.
ALL this rally? and LIBOR rates have NOT come back down.....I find that worrisome.
What is LIBOR?
"The London InterBank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, is the average interest rate charged when banks in the London interbank market borrow unsecured funds from each other."
And things are so stinking rosey, why the hell is the FED sitting with ZERO INT RATES STILL? More like LIFE SUPPORT!
Duratek
I FIND THIS TROUBLING
Almost $1T has ran from money funds (sidelines?) into stock funds since rally began, lots of fuel used IMHO. YOU really think housing market is fixed, especially w/o stimulus?
WORLD MARKETS SPIRAL TOWARDS BEAR
**3 PM update Volume is roughly HALF of what it has been on the down days.....don't be fooled.....IMHO this is ALL BS
2nd largest economy seems headed for ANOTHER BEAR MKT! I remember reading report after report at THE HIGHS that things were different in Japan, and YOU HAD to be invested there.....I had thought otherwise.
Japan has never cleaned up their banking system, the orig ZOMBIE Banks, weak , wounded after historic real estate bubble burst in early 90's, GOV has responded with infinite number of stimulus moves, and the market 20 years later is only 25% of what it was....that's DEFLATION.
We are following on the SAME PATH HERE. Inept government made worse with the Obama adm, change only brought MORE INSIDERS into government roles. LOOK at how adm has responded to oil spill crisis......look at how instead of bringing troops home we have expanded the war......taxes are rising, health care costs are still rising.....bank loans still contracting......jobs hard to come by....
Office furniture industry just DOWNGRADED their forecast, economic expansion and sustainable recovery about as much a hoax as the phoney bank profits without mark to market accounting.
Primary uptrend? It may be, but I refuse to call it that, a bear market rally...seems to ft better.
90% down volume days usually tend to try to rally for a few days....the intensity of selling shows me prices are not yet LOW enough to draw in sustained demand....why the hell would ANYONE want to guess a bottom here? GOLD remains in strong uptrend.
D
2nd largest economy seems headed for ANOTHER BEAR MKT! I remember reading report after report at THE HIGHS that things were different in Japan, and YOU HAD to be invested there.....I had thought otherwise.Japan has never cleaned up their banking system, the orig ZOMBIE Banks, weak , wounded after historic real estate bubble burst in early 90's, GOV has responded with infinite number of stimulus moves, and the market 20 years later is only 25% of what it was....that's DEFLATION.
We are following on the SAME PATH HERE. Inept government made worse with the Obama adm, change only brought MORE INSIDERS into government roles. LOOK at how adm has responded to oil spill crisis......look at how instead of bringing troops home we have expanded the war......taxes are rising, health care costs are still rising.....bank loans still contracting......jobs hard to come by....
Office furniture industry just DOWNGRADED their forecast, economic expansion and sustainable recovery about as much a hoax as the phoney bank profits without mark to market accounting.
Primary uptrend? It may be, but I refuse to call it that, a bear market rally...seems to ft better.
90% down volume days usually tend to try to rally for a few days....the intensity of selling shows me prices are not yet LOW enough to draw in sustained demand....why the hell would ANYONE want to guess a bottom here? GOLD remains in strong uptrend.
D
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
CHINA SNEAZES
Late additional update, Today registered as a 90% down volume day
US markets weaken at close......slipped on oil slick?
D
HEADLINES AND HARSH REALITY CLASH
Stocks Claw Way Back After Construction, Manufacturing Reports- AP
"Stocks are erasing early losses after reports on construction spending and manufacturing signal that the economy is continuing its recovery. "
Maybe my description of "recovery" is not the same as theirs
D
JUNE 1st CHART. LINE IN SAND
Support line drawn is where I expect prices to test, May did put in an intra day new low. Action now BELOW important support of the 200 EMA. Volatility more akin to bear mkt than bull. We are watching to see if we get a 50/200 bear cross, observe 50 day is now in downward slope....chances increasing. 2 year note yields a miserable bear fear laden .75%
Deflationary trends continue, even in the face of historic intervention. Price per production unit has fallen to levels not seen since 1950. PCE deflator in downtrend. Job gains have ground to a halt. Taking $'s out of pockets, some consumer related prices have been on upswing, not supportive to consumer spending.ANything Housing related in nosedive, including rents!
Last qtr GDP keeps coming down, now below yield on 10 yr note at 3%.
The REAL FINAL SALES component came in at anemic 1.4%, normal recovery it would be closer to 3-4%.
These are among and other topics I have touched upon reasons to be cautious on the market, especially after such an historic rise. Even in normal times a giveback was overdue.
Will a normal retrace of a bull rally morph into something else? The charts will tell us
D
FEARS PERSIST
SPX futures currently -15.60 so we will get a rocky opening, Chinese stocks continue their weakness. "Fears Persist" over the European debt crisis......I guess on the up days fears don't persist.
Solvency and liquidity crisis, not easily solved like the horrible environmental disaster of the oil rig leak, hard to equate these with a bull market,
Insistance from many this is a primary up move, has ways to go......well it will be historical for those should that turn out to be incorrect. There are times it pays to be cautious.
D
Solvency and liquidity crisis, not easily solved like the horrible environmental disaster of the oil rig leak, hard to equate these with a bull market,
Insistance from many this is a primary up move, has ways to go......well it will be historical for those should that turn out to be incorrect. There are times it pays to be cautious.
D
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