Monday, November 15, 2010

CAT OUT OF BAG?


It's hard to argue that yields are doing what few have expected considering the FED'S pronouncements of its buying intentions QE2 and desire to keep YIELDS LOW.....I still think the market expereinced some type of blowoff top last week and to this point selling interest has not perked up appreciably.....that can change. Bullish polls lopsided bullish a contrary data point.
D

SAFE HAVEN?


Beware Municpal debt funds what good is yield if principal melts away?

D

QE2 Sends Interest Rates Up. Yes, Up!

QE2 Sends Interest Rates Up. Yes, Up!

BEWARE THE "CLIFF"

A John Hussman read son-of-a-gun that QE2 video I made is near 8,000 views now..how cool is that.

D

Sunday, November 14, 2010

"HAS QE2 TURNED COUNTER PRODUCTIVE?"

PrudentBear.com Credit Bubble Report 10 and 30 yr yields, and in general yields have turned higher....NOT what was intended

Duratek

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Friday, November 12, 2010

GNARLS BARKLEY - WHO'S GONNA SAVE MY SOUL LIVE ON ABBEY ROAD

BE AMAZED AT THE POWER OF MUSIC! Damn this is hot!

MARKET SPITS A HAIRBALL


Current sell off channel with (red) top R. I think this correction could have further to go, but there was NO sign of panic today
D

(OT for STEVE)Dire Straits - Once Upon A Time In The West + lyrics

WHY IS THIS MAN SMILING?



??????? US out on an island and LOSING world dominance and influence

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- "Leaders of 20 major economies on Friday refused to back a U.S. push to make China boost its currency's value, keeping alive a dispute that raises fears of a global trade war amid criticism that cheap Chinese exports are costing American jobs."

ADJUSTED MONEY BASE YR/YR CHANGE. FRIDAY AM MARKET TALK

EuroZONE growth slows to a crawl
Quite dramatic right? So many are chasing the INFLATION trade, the money in the banking system is not being lent, it is being HORDED, and until it gets into the economic system, until REAL DEMAND and CONSUMPTION increases and loan demand rises......this chart argues for the definition of inflation. We aren't in a period as 70's (NO Chinese manufacturing power) of TOO MANY DOLLARS CHASING TOO FEW GOODS...we have tons of SLACK in manufacturing.
YES, in theory the FED has increased the amount of money grossly but it mostly sits idle as excess reserves, certainly should it get into economy as hoped for inflation could occur. *(they are trying to pay off yesterdays DEBTS with todays OUT OF THIN AIR NEW $'S)
The FED policies and gamble have failed, and have diverted precious resources away from where it is most needed, almost all efforts guided to financial sector and GOV debt.
Are we healing? are we past a period like 1930? or are we topping like 1930 and the worst of stock market decline is ahead of us?
Instead of Tariffs and restraint of trade as was case in 1930, we now have currency wars and Chinese currency valuations have allowed China to dominate world manufacturing.....
In this open "FREE" forum I cannot TELL you what to do, and in any case I am just expressing my OPINION on all matters and I could be dead wrong....even the best prognosticators can turn from Nostradomus to (not orig) Nostradumbass. (mostly that would be Bernanke)
Bottom Line? I am in a VERY DEFENSIVE POSTURE, I AM TAKING NO CHANCES HERE. I AM NOT CHASING YIELD NOR THE MARKET....I SEE BUBBLES EVERYWHERE, I SEE TROUBLE.
Calling a TOP especially THE TOP is difficult, I was able to do it in 2000 and again in 2007 because of the sideways movement of SPX while other things deteriorated enough to give me a signal technically and logically (real estate and banking stress).....I can smell a bubble....current situation is a SNIFFARAMA.
CHINA MKT (OUT OF BLUE?) fell 5% overnight! Worries about inflation and further measures that might be taken to stem inflation....slowdown in the Chinese economy would have ripple effects around the globe.....COULD impact commodity prices.....we will be watching carefully.
A lot of important calls cannot be made ON THE FLY and may come early, or after the fact.....better to make call in 2008 just before worst drop then wait for 2009? MY call in 2007 was as good as anyone who was warning.....and its on my site where all posts are available for inspection....YES I believe I can do it again.
FOR ME PERSONALLY......I am not LTBH in this environment of manipulation and failed policies.....stocks in general are not for me here, but that wouldn't stop me from trading for profits....day to day on a variety of areas including direction of yields. The introduction of ETF'S allow lots of options on playing either side of almost anything.
I DO NOT see VALUATIONS as ATTRACTIVE, too much emphasis is made on relation to stocks and bond yields especially when rates are forcibly held LOW. This is causing all kinds of distortions.....I have shown previous how BANK LOANS OUTSTANDING continue to DECLINE....and IMHO the Kondratief WAVE is in WINTER MODE and you must be very careful how you play this.
I think the most recent move by the FED and its assertion PUBLICALLY they are "targeting asset price reflation" is being seen as reason to buy, to be hopeful....crazy me I see it as DESPERATION and find it very troubling indeed. WHat do you get when you mix the most intervention of any Recession by FED and GOV with the weakest recovery in history? TROUBLE
Duratek

Thursday, November 11, 2010

NEED A CLUE?


"THE GREAT BANK ROBBERY"

ANother good find at zerohedge.com all this makes your stomach turn....we just sit here and take it

D

NOT ALWAYS GOOD IDEA TO RUN AFTER YIELD

KD site link not too many places to hide....

D

John Taylor: "The Collapse Of Europe Has Begun, The Euro Will Trade Like The Lira In A Few Months"

John Taylor: "The Collapse Of Europe Has Begun, The Euro Will Trade Like The Lira In A Few Months"

CSCO AIR POCKET

“We have a couple of pockets that we have to fly through,” Mr. Chambers said.

Orders from state governments fell 25 percent compared with a year ago and were 48 percent lower than the previous quarter. Orders from cable operators fell 35 percent from a year ago.

Cisco’s financial performance is considered an important bellwether of corporate technology spending because the company has a broad base of customers. Cisco’s main business is making equipment for telecommunications networks and for routing Internet traffic, though in recent years it has pushed into consumer electronics."

60 Minute CHART CLOSE UP OF MARKET ACTION


*click to enlarge

BLOW OFF TOP OR REST?

$trillions have been spent, money created out of thin air, dropped from helicopters......where has it landed and what has it done?

The GOV stimulus efforts were weak and not focused well and not targeted to have maximum effect. Instead of projects or tax cuts to get into economy immediately and into pockets of workers, the money went into Roosevelt style shovel projects, too spread out over time to have even limited results....and the amount vs a $14T economy were miniscule.

How about the FED? $2 TRILLION effort, with another $600B coming or more.....going into buying US GOV DEBT! to manipulate rates lower.....so far the 10 and 30 and rates in general have not fallen further and some have broken OUT to UPSIDE especially 30 yr. (buying opp?)

Money has gone DIRECTLY TO THE BANKS, FINANCIALS....and from there directly into stocks....commodities and foreign markets have been stimulated. We keep hearing about "we have STRONG DOLLAR POLICY"...but we know they are trying to pay OLD debt with NEW DOLLARS.

It seems to me the FED has DIVERTED money AWAY from the economy to the financials......LARGE COMPANIES appear to be doing well, reporting profits.....mostly from head chopping and cost cutting.

SMALL BIZ confidence and Consumer confidence remain fragail and display the weakest improvement from Recession readings ever on record......some jobs but not enough even to take care of new entrants into job market...what about the 8 million? the 99'ers? some data looks better ONLY because so many more have DROPPED OUT LOOKING and are not counted....those in power can make the data appear any way they need to....trying to hide the ugly reality....that their efforts and policies have mostly only helped those who had a large hand in creating this crisis.

AS gold rises to the sun, will the newly minted paper be burned to ashes? Not only do problems and imbalances remain, and maybe only time heals, but thanks to ill concieved policies new ones are being birthed.

Duratek

DOES BDI CORRELATE WELL WITH TRANSPORT INDEX?

It has until recently

ANOTHER LOOK AT BALTIC DRY INDEX vs DOW


Wednesday, November 10, 2010

LIP SEVRVICE

Both short term and long term yields have jumped higher after QE2 officially was announced. Today FED officials talking down the INFLATIONARY effects of the new programs.
(AP STORY)

"The Treasury Department said Wednesday that last month's deficit totaled $140.4 billion" *we're headed fro another $trillion plus deficit.

"the Fed announced it planned to pump an additional $600 billion into the financial system over the next eight months in an effort to boost a sluggish economic recovery"

My argument has been HOW DOES this " boost economy"? asnwer it doesn't.

Can you believe this? one FED governor " Fisher, speaking on Fox Business Network, also said Fed officials want to make sure the dollar retains its purchasing power. He votes on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year."

SUckers rally?


"In the worst-case scenario, investors could find themselves in what David Rosenberg, strategist and economist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, calls a "sucker's rally."

"[A]ll we know is that these Fed-led asset cycles end in tears, and few manage to get out early enough because greed is an emotion that may go comatose in a brutal bear market but it never fully expires," Rosenberg wrote in a note to investors. "In other words, quantitative easings are no antidote for structural economic problems, even if they manage to give investors a short-term sugar high."

There already were signs that the rally is sputtering, with the market negative on consecutive days for the first time since September and uncertainty prevailing over European sovereign debt.


HOW DID THIS "GUY" GET ANOTHER TERM FROM OBAMA!!??

Ron Paul: End the Fed, Legalize Competing Currencies!

Bernanke Lies Under Oath re: Monetizing Debt

But indeed.....they are...they will, and they have been manipulating the stock market.....helping everything but the avg Joe and economy.

D

A PATH TO FOLLOW

I've met a lot of "new" people recently, so I want to again quickly summarize with a few key links for MUST READ material. If you read the commentary at the links I provide, you WILL understand more what is being done to us.

Daniel Amerman "Difference between QE1 and QE2"

John Mauldin "Thoughts on Liquidty Trap"

Doug Noland "QE2" SUmmary at end of commentary.

IRELAND'S CRISIS

INvestors DUMPING BONDS when they lose faith........

D

SPX DIVIDEND YIELD NEAR 2% !

Link to DIVIDEND YIELD ANALYSIS The TOP in 2000 has yield near 3% ! bottoms made whn yield closer to 6% as in 1980's

In case you missed (can happen when I post a BLIZZARD of comments and charts....)

John Mauldin piece includes commentary from John Hussman thoughts on "liqudty trap"

IN a nutshell, if you observe my most recent chart of Bank Loans, you can clearly see they have been on steady decline, lowering rates or attempting to do so by the FED in an environment of already historic low rates and continued SLACK DEMAND is a FOOLS GAME.

Hussman " The FED has now placed itself in a position where small changes in its announced policy could have disastrous effects on a whole range of financial markets. THIS IS NOT SOUND ECONOMIC THINKING BUT MISGUIDED TINKERING WITH THE STABILITY OF THE ECONOMY."

And as John goes on to explain, REAL MONEY (gold and silver) rally mightily when 3 month treasuries dive below the CPI.......

I ask you, what good is LOW interest rates if demand is not there for the loans, companies do not see investment opportunities and we have much SLACK in manufacturing?

You get a LOPSIDED investment landscape where there is barely any safe YIELD to be found. Now remember MOST avg people are trying to A) SAVE and B) pay down debt........but the FED is saying NO....you will not be paid for savings, and we will fight you and drag you from under your savings rock and FORCE you into RISKY assets.

Excuse me, if me this unknown writer disagrees with all these connected, smart people.....that somethng is horribly wrong and imbalanced AGAIN!

Hiding banking losses with an accounting change (right near the March 2009 lows!) doesn't seem like it's made a real difference in the economy except for those who get great joy of recieving BONUSES based on earnings that may not be there.

Duratek

SELLING RETURNS

81% DOwn volume TUES was hint selling came back into the market, this increases the potential for more short term losses, the US $ inexplicably has rallied in the ST.

Rates on the 10 and 30 yr bonds have been rising, this is not what the FED's end game is about, makret forces in the ST are exerting themselves......housing has been senistive to even miniscule increases in mortgage rates, this development is a net negative.

D

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

EFFECTS OF FED AND GOV POLICIES


that good huh? The FED is going to lose its credability, well it's certainly on the line....it's all in...with the bluff
D

VELOCITY OF MONEY IN THE U.S. IS NOT HEALTHY


SO WE SHOULD THROW MORE GS ON THE FIRE?


What happened last time debt topped out? this recent top is MAGNATUDES higher.......Bernanke was "student of 1930's"

Ziggy Marley: True to Myself

ALERT: Mystery Missile Launch Seen off Calif. Coast 11/09/2010

WEDGE PATTERN BREAKOUT

and TEST.....buy signal given at dashed line and new uptrend support line in play....just an ob.

SCRATCH HEAD


Announcement of addt'l FED bond purchases not holding down yields...30 yr at 4.2%. EVEN SLIGHT upticks in yields have had nasty effects on the patient.
I'm getting feeling we are already back into contraction mode.
D

G 20 MEETING NEXT WED

Not ALL are happy with what the FED and ADM are doing....or not doing.

Everybody wants an EASY fix, like the junky.....more junk ain't gonna help in the long run...SO many regular people are getting screwed......and I'm going to continue to YELL from the rooftops what I think....no matter how high they can push this manipulated mass we use to call a stock market. If jobs were the stock market.....we'd have full employment.

D

THE CROWDING OUT OF THE PRIVATE ECONOMY

If you try to ever read something, and want to understand what THE FED AND DUPLICATE US GOV are doing to YOU, avg American, then you will read this MUST READ commentary.

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN QE1 and QE2 by Daniel Amerman

" The "2" in "QE2" implies that this is something that has been done before. This implication is dead wrong.

"QE2" is radically different – and radically more dangerous – than the risky games that were played with earlier "quantitative easings". The Fed's current actions are all too likely to go down into financial infamy, and this brief article is intended to warn readers about some of the key differences this time around. "

And the scenario for us is devestating! Our hard earned and SAVEd $'s and being REPLACED by $TRILLIONS of these NEW DOLLARS......in an attempt to FORCE YOU out of any "SAFE HAVEN" and INTO "RISKY ASSET CLASSES" like stocks.....OR the FED will DESTROY the VALUE of your savings and those of your parents and retired populace who so depend on interest income.

I can't say this strongly enough, this has gotten well beyond out of control, Congress is either duplicate with PRES and FED or this is too complicated and they havent a clue except maybe Ron or Rand Paul.

Above is best read so far, and I read TONS in explaining.....your OUTRAGE should be limit up

Duratek

Fed Liquidity trap. Morning Talk.

"Thoughts on Liquidity Trap" by John Mauldin must read.

A pick up in selling and volume needed to represent potential for maybe some kind of blow off move last week and a short term top.

D

Monday, November 08, 2010

2007-2009 CRISIS as SEEN BY LIBOR


Driscoll Middle School Trick Play

DALLAS FED RICHARD FISHER

DALLAS FED CHIEF SPEAKS OUT AGAINST QE2

INSULT TO INVESTORS?

WSJ on "Dumb money returns"

"TO HELL THROUGH QE"

CHina expert ANDY XIE

"China knocks US plan to pump money into system"

BEIJING (AP) -- "The U.S. Federal Reserve's move to pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system will bring greater volatility to markets worldwide, a Chinese official said Monday.

The step will create new waves of cash sloshing in and out of countries in search of short-term profits, vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao told reporters at a news conference to discuss the Group of 20 meeting of major advanced and developing nations in Seoul, South Korea later this week.

The U.S. decision "does not recognize, as a country that issues one of the world's major reserve currencies, its obligation to stabilize capital markets," Zhu said, referring to the global use of the dollar as the currency in which nations store the bulk of their foreign reserves.

"Nor does it take into consideration the impact of this excessive fluidity on the financial markets of emerging countries," he said."

JOSEPH STIGLITZ ON FED POLICY

STiglitz talks, you should listen bloomberg TV

Sunday, November 07, 2010

More Distortions

"We created 150,000 jobs, FED and GOV policies are working, economy is growing...."

WOnder how this was accomplished in face of avg claims STILL ABOVE 450K? HOusehold sector claims of 300K LOST?? how so 150,000 gained?

BLS "SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS", ever heard of them? It's the magic of pencil pushers......the BLS lowered the BAR for jobs by 100,000 2010 OCT MUCH lower or that much lower than prior 2 years with NO explanation why......so presto chango THEY gave us a 100,000 UPSIDE SURPRISE!

And just like bank profits, then so SPX earnings.....just a mirage if not outright fraud and lie

D

Saturday, November 06, 2010

We are in a Depression, David Rosenberg, 08/24/10, CNBC's Fast Money

Market was weakening into end of AUG....that's when FED stepped in with POMO actions and got SEPT to be best in last 70 years.

One point made here....."housing has led the US OUT of Recession 7 of the last 8 TIMES......" think about that.....housing fell off a cliff, laying somewhere near bottom.

It shows rally is artificially stimulated....sugar high....
D

Quantitative Easing, FED has our Back "BUY MORE STOCKS"

VIGILANT ON THE $

"Given a sluggish economy and huge amount of debts, driving the value of the dollar down is in line with America’s interests, both in short term and in long term. The international community ought to stay vigilant about the strong motive for active devaluation under the guise of a market-based move. "

By Li Xiangyang, translated by People's Daily Online

RAND PAUL RANT

"QE 2" The Always Amazing Doug Noland

"The Bernanke Fed is playing with fire here. QE1 was implemented in an environment of deleveraging, impaired global financial systems and acute economic contraction. And, importantly, the dollar was enjoying strong performance in the marketplace as global risk markets suffered from de-risking and general outflows. QE1 had a stabilizing influence, as it worked to accommodate financial sector de-leveraging.

The QE2 backdrop is altogether different. "

complete writing pudentbear.com link

WEAKEST RECOVERY FROM RECESSION IN HISTORY

"Tempered spending by Americans of most income levels means the economic recovery is having a harder time gaining steam. Rosenberg says that at this point of the economic cycle -- two years and 11 months since the recession began -- things should be much better.

Retail sales are off by 2.6 percent since the recession began in December 2007. That's a stark contrast to the last 60 years. At this stage in an economic recovery, retail sales on average were up 25 percent, according to Gluskin Sheff. Retail sales include food, autos, clothing, furniture and electronics."

There are lies and damned lies

When using the "household" employment survey,, it shows not a gain of 151,000 jobs but an October loss of 330,000. That would 1.1 million in the last 5 months alone!

Remember MSM hyping the FRi jobs data, how did we create these 150,000 when the weekly claims number is STILL above 450K? 400k is consistant with low job growth.

Noone will ask the questions, no changes will be made,leadership goes ahead with debasement $ theme and FED QE.....GD help us if it doesnt work , well I mean it isn't working...

D

USING DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES


Previous post shows better pattern for trading on the daily chart, this weekly shows more shoppy action as drawn, sometimes we have to use different time frames to get clearer picture.
D

TREND FOLLOWING


MORE SAT CHARTS


Bank stocks led way to abyss, are lagging now (warning). Consumer cyclicals called a nice bottom in 2009, are in downward wedge and also lagging (warning).....possibly they reverse, or warning decline of stocks may be near....should I say "correction"

D

HOW TO BE A LONG TERM INVESTOR

*click to enlarge
Only way to make this look better is if we used technical analysis to exit market during 2 Bears and re-enter during period of 2000-2010. Even missing half of the drop would have been helpful.....but you have to come back in.

Using TREND TRADING methods we can do this, and with my Lowry's Service, who measures ultimate supply and demand trends, signals strong sectors and the stocks within the groups, Lowry's stands above almost any service out there.

I have spent a lot of times discussing fundamental issues which are important, but it may take long periods of time before they result in a trend change. Being and open service, I hadn't felt appropriate to nor can I in so many words make direct reccomendations....but I am going to spend more time on the other things going forward......and try to show you how to follow the trend....we NEVER want to FIGHT THE TREND.

AS I bring up negatives, there are always positives too....so we will keep our eyes peeled for them. And if in SECULAR BEAR like I think, I will do my best to ALERT you to when I think the tide has turned.

To MAKE MONEY, we MUST DETACH OURSELVES from the TV, especially CNBC (IMHO)....and news in general.....and pay CLOSE attention to THE TREND.....and sorry for cliche', "THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND"

D

Friday, November 05, 2010

SPX FIB 1228


One potential retrace target, though the market "feels" like its got gas left.

The key Fibonacci ratio of 61.8% - also referred to as "the golden ratio" or "the golden mean" - is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example: 8/13 = 0.6153, and 55/89 = 0.6179.

Duratek

HOW EFFECTIVE 0% FED FUNDS RATE AND ASSET PURCHASES?

SO why not do another round of QE , who cares what the first round did, we got nothing else we can do but talk.
"Four Key Takeaways From the Oct. Jobs Report- Daniel Gross, YahooFinance.com

The trend of the private sector increasing employment is continuing — and strengthening. In October, the private sector created 159,000 jobs. That was stronger than expected, although it's still not enough to make a meaningful dent in the number of unemployed.

*(that's your perverbial mountain out of mole hill)


Pending home sales drop 1.8% in September- AP

2 BEARS in 10 YEARS...and LOWER LOWS




And is why I am holding to my Secular Bear call...interrupted now with cyclical bull,
D

BDI AS ECONOMIC INDICATOR?


MANY now argue its worthless.....I think they aren't very well informed.
IT bottomed in 2002 early 2003 and rose into 2007-2008, bottom early 2009... if you went long this trend when it rose and exited when it topped.....couldn't complain.
We don't have to use it, never ONE thing for timing, but currently what is troubling is it falling wedge pattern in the face of the ongoing RALLY. Higher low and LOWEr highs.....this will break and will give us good clue to economy and markets I think.

D

SECULAR AND CYCLICAL TRENDS

"There have been 34 cyclical bull markets since 1900, not including the current bull. The median gain has been 69.1 percent over 614 days equating to an annualized gain of 36.8 percent." (from seeking alpha) average duration could be as much as 3 years.....so for what its worth....we aren't dealing with anything ordinary here.....but anything is posisble.....I would await TA to conclude the Secular downtrend has returned....far from doing that at this point.....but a few things a including Tobin's Q ratio are moving into that column. EVERY LONG TERM (Secular) Bear ended with single digit PE ratios and 6% avg dividend yields....the bottom in 2002/3 or 2009 wasnt even close. This rally is fueled by cost cutting, inventory rebuild and a FED policy gone wild.

Good research here

WE are currently (approximately) 575 days since March 2009 and gains off the lows of around 80%.

SECULAR BEARS can last from 8 to 20 years in length.

IS a bottom in of March of 2009? good chance of that, but since the public is sitting this one out.....jury is out. IMHO that bottom never got tested....I will post a long term chart soon.

D

BLS LABOR DATA RELEASE

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2010

**SOME TIDBITS FIRST
"In the October breakdown, most jobs were gained in mining and a number of service-producing industries. Health care continued to add jobs, with employment rising by 24,000 last month. But the manufacturing sector, which had been the big creator of jobs at the start of the recovery, shed 7,000 jobs.

A broader measure of the unemployment rate, which includes people who stopped looking for work and those settling for part-time jobs, remained high at 17% in October compared to 17.1% in September.

In a sign of the labor market's continued weakness, Friday's report showed that 42% of unemployed Americans, or 6.2 million people, were out of work for more than six months in October. The longer someone is without a job, the harder it is to find work."


Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October, and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Since December 2009, nonfarm payroll
employment has risen by 874,000.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.8 million, was little changed
in October. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6 percent and has
been essentially unchanged since May. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men
(9.7 percent), adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.1 percent),
whites (8.8 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (12.6 per-
cent) showed little change in October. The jobless rate for Asians was
7.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and
over) was about unchanged over the month at 6.2 million. In October,
41.8 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or
more. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.5 percent, and
the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, edged down over the
month. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (some-
times referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 318,000
over the month to 9.2 million, partially offsetting large increases in
the prior 2 months. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a
full-time job. (See table A-8.)

About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force
in October, up from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, want-
ed and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in
the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
(See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged
workers in October, an increase of 411,000 from a year earlier. (The
data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not
currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to
the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
(See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October, re-
flecting job gains in mining and a number of service-providing indus-
tries. Private-sector payroll employment rose by 159,000 over the
month; since December 2009, employment in the private sector has risen
by 1.1 million. (See table B-1.)

Within professional and business services, employment in temporary
help services continued to increase in October, with a gain of 35,000.
Temporary help services has added 451,000 jobs since a recent low in
September 2009. Employment in computer systems design and related ser-
vices increased by 8,000 in October and has risen by 53,000 since a
recent low in June 2009.

Health care continued to add jobs in October (+24,000). The gain was
in line with the average increase over the prior 12 months (+20,000).

Retail trade employment rose by 28,000 in October, including increases
in automobile dealers (+6,000) and in electronics and appliance stores
(+5,000). After reaching a trough in December 2009, employment in re-
tail trade has expanded by 128,000.

Within leisure and hospitality, a job loss in arts, entertainment, and
recreation (-26,000) in October offset a gain in food services and
drinking places employment (+24,000). The food services industry has
added 143,000 jobs since a recent low in December 2009.

Mining employment continued to trend up (+8,000) over the month. Since
a recent low in October 2009, mining has added 88,000 jobs.

Employment in manufacturing changed little in October (-7,000) and, on
net, has essentially been flat since May. The industry had added
134,000 jobs during the first 5 months of this year.

Elsewhere in the private sector, employment in construction, wholesale
trade, transportation, information, and financial activities showed
little change in October.

Government employment overall was little changed in October. Employ-
ment in local government, excluding education, decreased by 14,000
over the month and has fallen by 123,000 over the past 12 months. The
number of temporary decennial census workers fell by 5,000 in October.
After peaking at 564,000 in May, there were only about 1,000 temporary
decennial census workers remaining on Federal payrolls in October.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
increased by 0.1 hour in October to 34.3 hours. The manufacturing
workweek for all employees also increased by 0.1 hour, to 40.3 hours,
while factory overtime was unchanged at 3.0 hours. The average work-
week for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm
payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours in October.
(See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In October, average hourly earnings of all employees on private non-
farm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $22.73. Over the past 12 months,
average hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. Average hourly
earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees
rose by 7 cents to $19.17. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised
from -57,000 to -1,000, and the change for September was revised from
-95,000 to -41,000.

LIARS POKER

ATLANTA (AP) -- Beazer Homes USA Inc. said Friday it moved to a fiscal fourth-quarter loss on inventory charges as new orders and home closings declined.

Home sales are near the lowest levels in decades ever since federal homebuyer tax credits expired in April.

FED SAYS....."want to stimulate assets........" but any ignoramous knows jobs are needed, then maybe those.....after awhile.....saving some will buy a home......FED QE 1 was proven ineffective in creating jobs nor stimulating housing as soon as false stimulus pulled away.....now EVERYONE knew QE2 was coming and REP victory....stocks had already rallied to that point, yet more rally on the news everyone already knew. Individuals we have proven have pulled out of domestic equity funds on the net consecutive 26 weeks.....so....the volume and buying is coming from where? FED HAS TARGETED THE STOCK MARKET.....this is a dangerous game of asset manipulation.

Yes we want growth and asset appreciation, when THEY do it we end up with 2007 scenario....agencies and watchdogs were on the job, in place and saw everything and did nothing.....now THE FED and friends are puzzeled at the outcome? have the answers we seek?

How can that be......when we aren't just getting more that didn't work, we're getting GOBS MORE.....notice how the 4% plane has been broken by the 30 yr treasury as its yield has moved up.

Another genius on CNBC Zandi....big deal economist for Moody's (didnt they fail to protect mortgage investors?) sees the FED's plans as just what we need..... the 2 HAIRS and BECKY can't even ask him above the stats BEFORE and 1 yr AFTER QE1 and prove that worked on anything but pushing stock prices up. (follow that story up with the 2 HAIRS sharing a $175 HAmburger with GOLD FLAKES!!!! how posh)

When an asset class in a FREE MARKET moves higher from demand supply perspective.....and no outside influences are added...such as over reaction by FED to last crisis and holding rates to 1% TOO LONG even as EVIDENCE was available that the condo/housing market had gone speculative.....then they fail to react, then BERNANKE goes live and says...."nothing to worry, housing prices have never gone down yr/yr.....this will pass, wont effect greater economy".....gee he sure was wrong and got awarded by Obvama to ANOTHER TERM AS FED CHAIRMAN!!???

Now we have had 2 PLUS years of 0% FED rate, $TRILLIONS of funny money and $Trillions of GOV STIM.....OFFICIAL end of Recession (more genuises) was SUmmer of 2009???!!!! yet we sit with "official" (we can trust!) unemployment of 9.6% ~!!!

As the geniuses had said we would be at 7% with all they had done. WELL it didn't work, so why not double down? OMG!!!!!! REP HOuse wont help.....MOST AMERICANS credit scores and HOME VALUATIONS have fallen so low they CANNOT ACCESS LOW LOW LOW INT RATES TO REFINANCE....like chaining a man left for week in desert to a tree just out of reach of running water!

99% of them are clueless.....if not outright LIARS....insiders getting dealt nice hand....the avg american has crapped out.......IDIOTS...why not make SURE loans get to small business so they STOP REDUCING PAYROLLS... CUT BIX TAXES NOW.....PUT MORE MONEY IN HANDS OF WORKERS STILL ON FEET by lowering payroll taxes NOW......STOP FUELING FALSE STOCK RALLY WITH OUR MONEY......STOP propping up the banks that WONT LEND to those with declining loan demand.....great plan to fix our economy shipping more $'s and jobs overseas!! A HUGE JUMP IN OIL ($86 !!) AND FOOD STUFFS.....on verge of deflation or is inflation already here?

Duratek

QE FAILS TO ADDRESS REAL PROBLEMS

Bernanke soft-pedals QE2 risks
Posted by Colin Barr
November 4, 2010 12:12 pm


"Is Ben Bernanke trying to export our problems to the rest of the world?

Bernanke says in a piece in Thursday's Washington Post that the Fed decided to buy $600 billion worth of Treasury bonds over the next eight months in order to bring domestic interest rates down even further and boost asset prices. He hopes to start a "virtuous circle" of more spending, higher incomes and expanding profits, he says, that will support U.S. economic growth."


Or do you agree with Pimco heavyweight

"Mohammed El-Erian, a top executive at giant bond investor Pimco, contends in a piece published in the Financial Times that quantitative easing will fail to restart domestic growth because it fails to address the real problems that are holding down U.S. employment and output"

"Liquidity injections and financial engineering are insufficient to deal with the challenges that the U.S. faces," El-Erian writes. "Without meaningful structural reforms, part of the Fed's liquidity injection will leak right out of the U.S. and result in yet another surge of capital flows to other countries."

Headlines cheered "stocks rally as FED injects....blah blah..." but what is needed is JOBS....not phoney service sector jobs in the food industry....like openings at Red LObster.

JOBS REPORTS GIVE MIXED SIGNALS almost as many LAYOFSS announced as jobs.

Jimi said it best "castles made of sand, slip into the sea....eventually"

And just as the American people decide to pay down debt and save more....the FED decides to screw them by not paying anything on savings.....a $million of savings you would get about $2,000 of income from.....if that isn't messed up what is?

And I'll say this again.....we would NEVER have economic slowdowns or could deal with ANY crisis if all you had to do is create money out of thin air....."targeting stock prices....".....this is crazy manipulation.....and cannot end well.....pitchfork sales will go off the charts

Duratek

Thursday, November 04, 2010

NOT WHAT YOU'D THINK YOU WOULD SEE?


"WALL STREET GETS ITS GROOVE BACK"

By SUSANNE CRAIG

"These are not boom times for financial firms. Trading is down and new regulations threaten to take a bite out of future profits. Some firms have been handing out pink slips. Morgan Stanley even posted a loss in its last quarter.

Yet Wall Street pay seems to defy gravity: Bonuses will be up this year, according to a study to be released on Thursday by a Wall Street compensation expert, Alan Johnson. The survey shows that overall compensation in financial services will rise 5 percent this year, with employees in some businesses like asset management getting increases of 15 percent.

"I did not expect compensation would come back the way it has,"
Mr. Johnson said. "I underestimated the industry's resiliency."

One does not have to look far to see that Wall Street has found its stride again."


YOU see my friends QE is working....

PLEASE, WAKE UP AMERICA



THE RALLY IS For show....it has NO GO. Why should anyone care? Because the A brains are taking care of those who least need it....the banks have all the money they could possibly need in execss reserves.....with the lowest rates in history SMALL BUSINESS LOANS are declining....small business creates most of the jobs, has least access to all this liquidity, all this FED BS hooplah.

Yes I am angry.....all I can do is wirte about my feelings and such on my blog, try to inform....make your own mind up

Enjoy the rally....it only makes me sick to my stomach!

D

RALLY EXPRESSED IN REAL MONEY


....."FORCED into risky assets....doesn't make them less risky..."

RELATIONSHIPS

*click to enlarge charts

ENEMY IS LOW INFLATION?

Gold up $39....so are almost all commodities........raw materials skyrocketing....if end users don't see rapid price inflation manufacturers will see profits dive.

The TITANIC is disembarking, all aboard....

D

DAMNED STATISTICS

JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP BACK UP


from a trader on the floor " it's everybody in the pool, just because you FORCE people into RISKY ASSETS doesn't make them LESS RISKY.....(on QE) I'm not a fan..."

QE1 didn't create jobs in this country, QE 2 won't either, and the #1 problem listed is jobs.....we already have LOW LOW borrowing costs, companies sitting on huge cash horde....so only objective of the Federal Reserve is to prop up and raise asset prices....that's all they got, in for a PENNY ($2T) in for a pound (another $1T)

This folks is the ultimate ponzi musical chairs scheme, and it will RISE on a pyramid of FED money out of thin air.....and this cannot go on forever, how do ponzi schemes end?

D

"THE DAY THE MUSIC DIED" BYE BYE MISS AMERICAN PIE"

AN INSULT TO BALD MEN EVERYWHERE!
KD on the BS*&&(! FED actions, there are lies and damn lies.
OIL rise to $85.82 !!! other commodities have risen to highs like wheat and corn the basic foundation for food stuffs around the world.
EVEN though QE1 did nothing for job formation, even as the YR/YR change in GDP from 5% to 2% is more proof nothing structural has been aided.....as things we need get grossly inflated......direct aim at asset prices by the hand of the FED go another round.
Now maybe we should play this game instead of complain about it, the smart money has.....but already in 2000 and again in 2007 we saw how that ended.....and IMHO when assets can no longer be influenced by FED manipulation, they will crash......the day the music stops....is a day you don't want to be long.
from my raging bull post

Shorts cannot fight $100B a month tsunami. But just like 2000 and 2007 the house that the FED built(made of sand) will slip into the sea....eventually.

Put down the paper, turn off CNBCBS and look at your charts.....as Big Ben gone wild pulls up his shirt, the camera is rolling....at some point the market will no longer buy his ponzi scheme.

But the imbalances will grow....the manipulation will no longer be hidden by the smoke screen of promises.....and the music will stop.

There is no sense on guessing a top....TA will confirm.....ride the Ben Tiger, follow the money or get out of the way.

Many of us long time bears are longing to take off our fur coats in a 1980's style bottom....and take them to the furier for storage.....but we know you cannot gain prosperity mearly by printing and announcing "we are trageting the stock market for manipulation" so YOU can feel better...as you get ousted from your home....have no work....and go back to living with your mama......too bad you had to SELL all your stocks to survive...... the aim is to help the already wealthy in an attempt to get them to stimulate.....what a sick sick way of thinking.

I hope you realize that with each uptick in stock market you get a DOWNTICK in our currency.....some rally!
D

DOLLAR CRUSHED

AS THEY WANTED, US $ falls sharply, stock futures up....don't fight the FED. So printing and expandng an already bloated FED balance sheet is our path to recovery,,,,ponzinomics

D

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

ECONOMIC IMBALANCES WILL GROW

THE HAIL MARY

"The wrong choice is for the Fed to continue quantitative easing as planned, allowing the government to grow at the expense of the economy. This will widen the economic imbalances that lie at the root of our problems. As a side effect, the U.S. dollar will continue spiraling downward as it becomes clear to foreign creditors that the Fed has no interest in protecting their investments. A weaker dollar will lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, which will make the Fed's task that much more difficult. "

OIL is now above $85. Surprise the $ weakened today.....

In todays FED speach they indicated it WAS their ambition to influence stock prices, as best I can tell this is outside their mandate.

Maybe stock prices go higher.....the data underneathe it will defy any recovery from recession on record.

WHY NOT put $100B a month directly into the economy?

D

QE2 DOOMED TO FAIL

market watch commentary link

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

ANOTHER DIVERGENCE


Republicans take back control of House, Senate probably not.....what's ahead for the next 2 years legislatively?
The FED stands ready to recklessly plow ahead with QE2...a SCAM of printing 2 yr bonds and buying 10 year bonds, artificially keeping rates LOW....even if the QE1 was a failure to stimulate OUR economy or create jobs HERE..what's worse than NO plan? a bad plan...I think stocks could be close to a dry heave.
D

CAN THIS HAPPEN HERE?


9 YEARS OF HOUSING BACKLOG

MISH'S BLOG link

Obama says he has "stabilized housing, jobs, economy and financials......" it may SEEM like things are stabilized, but they printed $3 trillion just to do that, $3T pLUS that hadn't existed before the crisis......I could solve lots more problems if I could print $1T....or more.

GOV has proven whenever they do something VS the private sector it costs a LOT more, very inefficient use of our resources.

SBA loans are beginning to get out there.....for struggling companies....more of that please.If you have been playing the game YES be invested since March of 2009 (don't overstay welcome!), but most people never get in LOW SELL HIGH or just STAY IN whole time....so in 10 NET YEARS we have gone nowhere on PAPER< actually the US $ index has fallen some 35% since 2001....hardly spinning our wheels.

When will someone/s of real vision, fairness and ability come along and set things straight?

A FREE MARKET system setting market rates to things would have SNIFFED out the housing BUBBLE way before it got to where it did....DEMAND for loans would have pushed rates high enough to squash excessive speculation......THE FED is supposed to be the gate keeper....not CRASHER......savoir? my goodness they helped create the disaster.

NO surprise the markets rallied and US $ fell.....Let's weaken our currency and manufacturing base further....or maybe if our $ falls another 50% we can compete with China....The STD of living in this country is falling and at huge risk.
D

DOWN THE HOME STRETCH

Years highs still in place for the SPX, but that can change.....it's still about HOT money finding a home....bullish polls at very high end, not too much fear like the FED actions are a written guarantee.

It is WELL documented what actions are likely, so its not so much going to be a surpirse. The excat language and amount of QE will be disected like the frog in biology in 9th grade....ad nauseum.

QE failed the people, sustained the big banks. QE 2 risks FED credability and other consequences besides it not working. US $ awaits, commodities await, Bonds await.......do you believe we can print our way to prosperity?

D

Home Ownership Levels Stay Near Record Lows

LINK TO STORY

TOBIN'S Q RATIO SHOWS MARKET 48-60% OVERVALUED


Interpreting the Ratio @ businessinsider.com

"The data since 1945 is a simple calculation using data from the Federal Reserve Z.1 Statistical Release, section B.102., Balance Sheet and Reconciliation Tables for Nonfinancial Corporate Business. Specifically it is the ratio of Line 35 (Market Value) divided by Line 32 (Replacement Cost). It might seem logical that fair value would be a 1:1 ratio. But that has not historically been the case. The explanation, according to Smithers & Co. (more about them later) is that "the replacement cost of company assets is overstated. This is because the long-term real return on corporate equity, according to the published data, is only 4.8%, while the long-term real return to investors is around 6.0%. Over the long-term and in equilibrium, the two must be the same."

As you can see some of the BEST buying periods of a lifetime were when the Q ratio was at or near a bottom of UNDER VALUATION, and some of the WORST times to buy were at periods of over valuation extremes as shown above....come to your own conclusions.
WHO is to say at what level the over valuation can go? late 90's to 2000 you can how that was maybe biggest stock bubble of our lifetimes. But the avg over valuation and what preceded MAJOR MARKET TOPS were Q ratios over valued in the 60% range.....certainly worth considering, and when you look at the past history going back to early 1900's.....the data is one I will take very seriously.
The President on John Stewart Show said the cost to American people of crisis (gov cost) was only "1% of GDP" but that would be inaccurate as a $14T economy 10% would be $1 Trillion....and it has cost much much more than that. ADD into the FED balance sheet growth and you see a more correct picture. (now I may not agree with Obama ADM, but he also said he ran on a platform and he tried to deliver what he ran on....I could hardly disagree with that)
I only wish the way to fix every balance sheet problem was to print more money. Because nothing substantial has changed in the banking and financial sector, and the huge losses are kept off the books and papered over by the GAO accounting policy change that allowed Banks to come up with their own value of their assets vs MARKET VALUATIONS......I love a good magic trick illusion......
D

Monday, November 01, 2010

ABOLISH THE FED

Ron paul tried, but back bones crumbled as many Congressman BACKED OUT of the vote.....
....here is a site that lays out many FACTS out for you.

my commentary (taken from my facebook page)


It's time to wake up, and see the world as it is, and make it what it should be. Inside the daily struggles and people bustling are some really wonderful and kind people.

But the bigger picture of fraud and mismanaged resources to sad losing policies that steal from the people, like the exact opposite of Robin Hood.....it goes on without abate. And I think the FED is at the center of it along with the money financial centers....many of which have gotten bigger, stronger and eaten or see... competitors get put down as they stand to gain in every way.

And many making important decisions are SO connnected to very group they oversea. Our way of life is slipping into a 3rd world sea, much of which again is a direct result from these failed policies aggravated by the mostly illiterate and asleep Congress who nary ever reads a bill they vote on.....this all has to stop.....

All we can do together is continue to wake up from the SLEEP, and talk to each other and so on.....make this a better world for all, and make those in POWER do the right thing....what is the right thing may vary from group to group......when the economy is well balanced and we are on fair playing field....low taxes and focus on small business....we can go at it with anyone....and opportunities will abound.

A politician will do and say ANYTHING to get elected, mostly never the truth.

Duratek

Indigenous - Things We Do

News worthy

JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM - News) fell 0.6 percent to $37.42 after ProPublica, an investigative journalism website, said the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether the bank adequately disclosed that a hedge fund helped select assets for a $1.1 billion package of subprime mortgages while also betting against portions of the deal.

UPS is raising fees 4% come January.

D

BANKING SECTOR DIVERGENCE WARNING


100 point plus Dow rally whithers into close......all eyes on election and FED
D

10 YEAR YIELDS


EARS TO THE GROUND


*remember CLICK on charts to enlarge

MCP

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MCP+Key+Statistics MolyCorp, another rare earth high flyer.....stats? $2.75 BILLION mkt cap less than $9 Million in revenues. Cash listed $5.23 M
Price to sales ratio 326
30 X book value

That's plum insane. stock off 6% today REE off 10%....REE has sold off near 30% since its highs when I put up their chart.

BULLISH POSITION

"Here's the key to understanding QE2's impact: Don't think of it as a stock movement. Instead, think of it as a risk movement with a seal of approval from the Federal Reserve." fromstreet.com FED PUTS BULLISH APPROVAL

I'm presenting the other side here, not my opinion.

I personally think near term top is in, and that after WED FED meeting, stocks will be weak.....unless shock and awe is used.

D

MONTHLY BULLISH CHART


Cyclical bull may STILL lie within SECULAR BEAR, double top with a lower low in place. A break of 200 month would be strong warning of next bear downleg.....MACD not crossed and bullish...making sense to you or not.....higher prices are possible until the TA says tide has turned.....using monthly is BIGGER PICTURE......short erm trends can and may experience selling fits.
Notice higher lows on the VIX (volatility index). LOOKS similar to rise in 2000 and 2007
D

THIS NO LONGER MATTERS?


MARKET NEWS ALERT

INcome and spending fall @ briefing.com nothing here supports market advance, mainly HOPE of FED QE vs Chinese manufacturing data that spikes their punch bowl.

WE have helped to push our people into servatude while advancing China and others to world power......was it worth it? we have credit bubble to show for it and wrecked financials.

My intent is not to be overly glum, I am an advocate for the American people, my intent is to do my best to illuminate and to help, to get people to think about what is going on not to just accept MSM and GOV responses. Many times certain policies and actions stand in the way of the natural order and cycles of things and can extend and add to the misery factor.

Just like you cannot stand in front of a burst dam, nor stop the flood with more cement.....sometime you have to move to higher ground.....or be aware a dam could burst and move out of the way.

You get inside my mind and how I think, I share my resources as trusted as they can be, links to articles should be read......you must come to your OWN conclusions. I will continue to post stock charts and hopefully I can open a window into how useful technical analysis can be.....not an exact science so much for me as one of observation.

I welcome all new bloggers and existing readers to cvomment when you feel like it, doesn't have to be one way conversation. I wish I could move this to a more user friendly format....that's someday down the road.

SO we will track ANY potential correction, with one already occuring this summer of 16%, Lowry's points out there has been no record of a bull market having 2 or more 10% plus corrections.....and even if we dont think fundamentals called for it, Lowrys continues to prove their data of supply and demand is a VERY useful predcitive tool....worth checking out.

D

RARE EARTH

NO! not this rare earth!
"The United States imports its rare earths-- just $84 million worth in 2009, according to the United States Geological Survey -- even though several industries at home depend on them. Leaders in Japan and Germany have spoken out against China's export slowdown, and US officials are going to investigate if Chinese rare earth trading practices violate international trade rules. "
"imports just $84 MILLION in 2009"??? a fairly miniscule amount surely demand can grow, but as I showed in REE chart......is there justification for a company with NO revenues, minerals still in the ground, no acceptable asessment....to be worth $350M current mkt cap?
Back to "EARTH". GOV wants to keep spending, FED wants to do more QE, and keep interest rates LOW......stock market likes the FED's back stopping, but the real economy could care less.
AT BEST GOV spending can spin its wheels, what is needed for jobs is business investment....and keep being told how business is sitting on its hands (and cash).
Medicare is basically an unfunded liability and promise, one that cannot be paid for nor cut as NO POLITICIAN will broach the subject.
ABout ONE MILLION citizens will be coming to the end of their 99 WEEKS of benefits....than another 3-4 million by next APril, it is estimated that adds about $80 B to economy.....already REAL FINAL SALES can barely show a 1% YR/YR gains...lots of negatives going forward to GDP...now falling from 5% to 2% in just one year....as the stock market plods higher....even as AVG AMERICAN keeps pulling money OUT.....HOT money has to find a home.....you think FED knows that?
WHAT if the FED goes ahead with hairbrain QE2 anyway as QE 1 was shown only effective in hiding bank misery?
I already feel the arrows are out of the quiver.....and what could happen is pitchforks and torches surround FED.....people ARE waking up.....people are FED up........even if there are NO easy answers.
We are trying to recover from a DEBT overload, and financial fraud......0% FED FUNDS rate.....is mostly just hurting savers and retirees who take a back seat to political motives......and are being FORCED OUT of their safe havens to somethng MUCH MORE RISKY......should they not be able to live on .3% returns on short term interest......WHO forgot SAVERS SPEND TOO?
Such an imbalanced approach is surely doomed to fail. Perhaps the BOND market can continue being a safe haven....one of scant returns......but after several decades of bull action, I grow wary of that space.
if you just HOLD $'s, like in a treasury MM, as the $ gets beaten up, you lose too in falling buying power.....current policies seem to me to be a big dose of LOSE LOSE.
Market is set up to SELL THE NEWS....over head resistance is 1285 and then prior April highs near 1215....there is AMPLE evidence of CHURNING HERE......volatile around the FED announcement could turn into short term top.....IMHO
Duratek