Monday, November 01, 2010

RARE EARTH

NO! not this rare earth!
"The United States imports its rare earths-- just $84 million worth in 2009, according to the United States Geological Survey -- even though several industries at home depend on them. Leaders in Japan and Germany have spoken out against China's export slowdown, and US officials are going to investigate if Chinese rare earth trading practices violate international trade rules. "
"imports just $84 MILLION in 2009"??? a fairly miniscule amount surely demand can grow, but as I showed in REE chart......is there justification for a company with NO revenues, minerals still in the ground, no acceptable asessment....to be worth $350M current mkt cap?
Back to "EARTH". GOV wants to keep spending, FED wants to do more QE, and keep interest rates LOW......stock market likes the FED's back stopping, but the real economy could care less.
AT BEST GOV spending can spin its wheels, what is needed for jobs is business investment....and keep being told how business is sitting on its hands (and cash).
Medicare is basically an unfunded liability and promise, one that cannot be paid for nor cut as NO POLITICIAN will broach the subject.
ABout ONE MILLION citizens will be coming to the end of their 99 WEEKS of benefits....than another 3-4 million by next APril, it is estimated that adds about $80 B to economy.....already REAL FINAL SALES can barely show a 1% YR/YR gains...lots of negatives going forward to GDP...now falling from 5% to 2% in just one year....as the stock market plods higher....even as AVG AMERICAN keeps pulling money OUT.....HOT money has to find a home.....you think FED knows that?
WHAT if the FED goes ahead with hairbrain QE2 anyway as QE 1 was shown only effective in hiding bank misery?
I already feel the arrows are out of the quiver.....and what could happen is pitchforks and torches surround FED.....people ARE waking up.....people are FED up........even if there are NO easy answers.
We are trying to recover from a DEBT overload, and financial fraud......0% FED FUNDS rate.....is mostly just hurting savers and retirees who take a back seat to political motives......and are being FORCED OUT of their safe havens to somethng MUCH MORE RISKY......should they not be able to live on .3% returns on short term interest......WHO forgot SAVERS SPEND TOO?
Such an imbalanced approach is surely doomed to fail. Perhaps the BOND market can continue being a safe haven....one of scant returns......but after several decades of bull action, I grow wary of that space.
if you just HOLD $'s, like in a treasury MM, as the $ gets beaten up, you lose too in falling buying power.....current policies seem to me to be a big dose of LOSE LOSE.
Market is set up to SELL THE NEWS....over head resistance is 1285 and then prior April highs near 1215....there is AMPLE evidence of CHURNING HERE......volatile around the FED announcement could turn into short term top.....IMHO
Duratek

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