Tuesday, November 23, 2010

TOPSY TURVEY

LONDON (AP) --" World markets fell sharply Tuesday as investors worried that Ireland's debt crisis will spread to other financially weak European countries and following news that North Korea had fired dozens of artillery rounds into South Korea's territory."

*One day they are worried, next day relieved, then worried again...isn't this all some BS? The markets are gamed for the insiders. revised GDP at 8:30.

My thoughts on what kind of market we are in. A cyclical bull mkt, not yet showing divergence in advanc decline line usually seen at market tops, but we did get a 90% DOWN volume day right after the recent spike to new reaction highs and maybe a blow off top. Reaching extremes again in investor bullishness.

AS I showed with Decision pt chart, if you followed link, we MAY be in that consolidation phase, now lasting 10 years.....but IMHO not enough has nearly been done to set stage for another ride like began in 1980's....where even I would let my stash ride for years and years.

Don't have and didnt have stock valuations nor dividend yields at 2009 or 2003 bottoms that are consistant with other MAJOR BEAR BOTTOMS. Cash on hand in mutual funds usually near 10% but now near historic lows of around 3.5% (no fire power all in! MUST SELL stocks if get large redemptions). DEBT levels are very high and in some cases still near historic levels well above what has ever been seen (total credit mkt debt as % of GDP)......Because of accounting rule change, bank profits appear healthier than they really are, and IMHO that means SPX profits are being exagerated and are not reliable.

Surely the last consolidation phase led to new secular trends, but the path followed is no guarantee this time around.

This so called RECOVERY also does not look like the avg of last 8 that came before, not by a long shot.

D

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