WHAT RECESSION?

BLACK FRIDAY was a comment on the recovery or how cautious shoppers remain?

With most of the people who have lost their jobs in the last 2 years still unemployed or underemployed excuse me if I am skeptical of "we're back to the good ole days". AN increase of shoppers paying in cash not credit was observed, also an increase in shoppers 15-25.

We are at a record for government assistance with more people getting food stamps than any other time in history. Between now and next April almost 4 million jobless will run out of their jobless benefits, if something isn't done $BILLIONS will come out of the economy.

Lots of talk about how we have record company profits, an excuse to buy stocks considering this trend will continue? Think about this, LARGE corporations are benefitting where small businesses are not. Large companies do not need BANK LENDING, they can issue BONDS for their borrowing needs, and have dramatically cut back INVESTMENT, this huge cutback in investment spending means more $'s to count as profit....so when does cautiousness and reduced investment = reasons to cheer corp profits? this combo = little job production.

Small businesses on the other hand cannot access bank credit.....we end up with another jobless recovery....add insult to injury:

Insult to injury is that FED policy of ultra low interest rates and outright asset manipulation send productive $'s overseas where they build productive capacity (but also are stimulating inflation) but here all that got created by the DESTRUCTIVE policies of the Federal Reserve was a housing bubble....a transitory wealth effect that has since blown up and now it takes an ever increasing amount of FED Liquidity to keep the entire US SHIP from sinking...and it ain't working so well.

ULTRA LOW rates have NOT re-stimulated the US housing market which sits at the low end of the worse it ever was.....and the FED has been direct in saying it is "influencing stock market pricing to create wealth effect which will help to create jobs...." but this is pure folly and will end badly and is why I suspect the Bear Market which began in 2000 or maybe even 2007 has much further to run.

AND THE GOV AND FED BLAME CHINA CURRENCY POLICIES? really......easy scapegoat.

If the FED can fool enough people thinking we have a vibrant economy unfolding a bi product might be an instant jolt upward to interest rates.....none of that would be good...the very policy in place right now was to drive long term rates LOWER but instead since QE2 announcement those very rates have risen.

FORCE banks to lend, FORCE savers who get nothing for saving into risky assets like stocks? These are the idiots where our fate is resting, g-d help us all

Duratek