"Schoenberg, who now teaches a business class at Columbia University, said his income is usually "north of half a million a year." But 2009 was a bad year for investments, so his income dropped to a little over $200,000. His federal income tax bill was a little more than $2,000.
"I simply point out to people, `Do you think this is reasonable, that somebody in my circumstances should only be paying 1 percent of their income in tax?'" Schoenberg said."
Over the weekend, a friend suggested we fix SS by removing level of pay where you stop getting taxed......
D
Monday, April 18, 2011
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Saturday, April 16, 2011
WHAT DOES GAS COST IN YOUR STATE?
http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/MDavg.asp It's up about a $1 from one year ago, this is a real shock to most consumers.
The stock market is stuck in a trading range of about 1300-1339. It's a stalemate, but the longs feel NO pressure.
The fear index, the VIX fell below 16 Friday signalling traders are not worried enough to buy puts for protection.
The US $ is in full scale death watch mode and is in danger of collapsing. Sometimes that just when it may surprise and get happy feet.
Just ate at Jack's Deli, awesome! IMHO it KILLS Panara by a mile, BETTER FOOD, BETTER ATMOSPHERE, they bring your food to you, many HEALTHY selections.
Its TAX TIME.....Monday is due date.
From Doug Nolands Credit Bubble Report
"At the same time, expectations for ongoing near-zero Fed funds place a low ceiling on Treasury (and related) yields. I would argue that a heavily distorted “Bubble” market for determining U.S. Treasury yields disregards risks associated with U.S. structural debt issues and a rapidly deteriorating inflation backdrop. One of these days, China and fellow Brics nations may arrive at the conclusion that the best hope they have for reining in “hot money,” surging commodities prices, and increasingly unwieldy inflation is to back away from supporting our debt markets."
BY DAVID BENOIT AND MATT JARZEMSKY
"Bank of America Corp. closed the first quarter with revenue down sharply across the majority of its businesses, sending profit falling 36%.
The nation's largest bank by assets is struggling to right the ship, saying Friday that it changed its chief financial officer, Chuck Noski, after less than a year on the job, as well as naming a new legal chief. Chief Risk Officer Bruce Thompson will succeed Mr. Noski by the end of the second quarter." full story for members at WSJ.COM
The stock market is stuck in a trading range of about 1300-1339. It's a stalemate, but the longs feel NO pressure.
The fear index, the VIX fell below 16 Friday signalling traders are not worried enough to buy puts for protection.
The US $ is in full scale death watch mode and is in danger of collapsing. Sometimes that just when it may surprise and get happy feet.
Just ate at Jack's Deli, awesome! IMHO it KILLS Panara by a mile, BETTER FOOD, BETTER ATMOSPHERE, they bring your food to you, many HEALTHY selections.
Its TAX TIME.....Monday is due date.
From Doug Nolands Credit Bubble Report
"At the same time, expectations for ongoing near-zero Fed funds place a low ceiling on Treasury (and related) yields. I would argue that a heavily distorted “Bubble” market for determining U.S. Treasury yields disregards risks associated with U.S. structural debt issues and a rapidly deteriorating inflation backdrop. One of these days, China and fellow Brics nations may arrive at the conclusion that the best hope they have for reining in “hot money,” surging commodities prices, and increasingly unwieldy inflation is to back away from supporting our debt markets."
BY DAVID BENOIT AND MATT JARZEMSKY
"Bank of America Corp. closed the first quarter with revenue down sharply across the majority of its businesses, sending profit falling 36%.
The nation's largest bank by assets is struggling to right the ship, saying Friday that it changed its chief financial officer, Chuck Noski, after less than a year on the job, as well as naming a new legal chief. Chief Risk Officer Bruce Thompson will succeed Mr. Noski by the end of the second quarter." full story for members at WSJ.COM
Friday, April 15, 2011
SOMETIMES YOUR THE BUG, SOMETIMES YOUR THE WINDSHIELD
D
3 MONTH SPX ACTION
66% of white males can find jobs, lowest on record. Americans needing govt assistance...highest on record.....love this recovery...and let the games continue over the budget cutting.....believe what you want.
Duratek
US $ 19th NERVOUS BREAKDOWN
D
CRACK Down
Gov't is warining tax evaders, who hide money in SWISS BANK ACCTS and avoide US taxes, come clean, pay 25% penalty or risk going to jail.
How about all those CAYMAN ISLAND ACCTS? Like the supposed 2 wives of GS incorporated to avoid taxes?
OH...never mind, this doesn't apply to the connected. These pikers are hiding in plain sight, why not they were set up by the FED and given the money per Taibii account.
AM data shows little CORE inflation...just thought you should know.
D
How about all those CAYMAN ISLAND ACCTS? Like the supposed 2 wives of GS incorporated to avoid taxes?
OH...never mind, this doesn't apply to the connected. These pikers are hiding in plain sight, why not they were set up by the FED and given the money per Taibii account.
AM data shows little CORE inflation...just thought you should know.
D
Thursday, April 14, 2011
SOME HEADLINES
Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise - Reuters
New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, bouncing back above the key 400,000 level, a government report showed on Thursday.
• China FX reserves soar past $3 trillion- Reuters
• In financial crisis, no prosecutions of top figures- NYTimes
From NPR
American families need to earn at least $68,000 a year to achieve basic economic security, a new report says. That's more than three times higher than the national poverty level. Child care can top rent as the biggest household expense.
New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, bouncing back above the key 400,000 level, a government report showed on Thursday.
• China FX reserves soar past $3 trillion- Reuters
• In financial crisis, no prosecutions of top figures- NYTimes
From NPR
American families need to earn at least $68,000 a year to achieve basic economic security, a new report says. That's more than three times higher than the national poverty level. Child care can top rent as the biggest household expense.
412,000 IN AM CLAIMS
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm 4 week moving averaged hopped to 395,000.....friends....this is unprecedented in modern times recovery stats....so is this continued recovery talk with RECORD numbers getting some form of government assistance....at the same time the inflation data is coming in HOT.
Did anone read the Matt Taiibi report on how the 2 GS wives got over $220 MILLION from the TALF fund? DID you not want to rip your screen in 2? I did not get one single comment from anyone concerning that and I am worried I am not reaching my readers, that all my time and effort is for shit....IMHO if you can remain MUTE after reading that, and it didn't get you hot under the collar and piss you off...nothing will. This forum can be used to express yourself..otherwise it sometimes feels like I'm in a vacuum and I have other things I could be doing.
Rally on? on this news? good luck to that...we are in trading range until we aren't
D
Did anone read the Matt Taiibi report on how the 2 GS wives got over $220 MILLION from the TALF fund? DID you not want to rip your screen in 2? I did not get one single comment from anyone concerning that and I am worried I am not reaching my readers, that all my time and effort is for shit....IMHO if you can remain MUTE after reading that, and it didn't get you hot under the collar and piss you off...nothing will. This forum can be used to express yourself..otherwise it sometimes feels like I'm in a vacuum and I have other things I could be doing.
Rally on? on this news? good luck to that...we are in trading range until we aren't
D
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
NEWS FLASH AND BULLISH RANT
“The Labor Department reported that there were 3.1 million job openings in February, up 352,000 from January and 570,000 from year-earlier levels. It was the largest number of available positions since September 2008.”
OK Bears try to spin this, you hairy bastards….you curdle my milk…..you rain on my parade, your breath stinks and you’re ugly too. You’re so damn pathetic you would spit on a HAND OUT because it wasn’t a HAND JOB……come on….wipe that sour puss frown off your lousy faces….I’M drinking your damn lemonaide and I like it!
Yes.....I was kidding and trying to be funny...some people think I'm real funny...for starters my wife....
Duratek
OK Bears try to spin this, you hairy bastards….you curdle my milk…..you rain on my parade, your breath stinks and you’re ugly too. You’re so damn pathetic you would spit on a HAND OUT because it wasn’t a HAND JOB……come on….wipe that sour puss frown off your lousy faces….I’M drinking your damn lemonaide and I like it!
Yes.....I was kidding and trying to be funny...some people think I'm real funny...for starters my wife....
Duratek
WORDS ROLL OFF THEIR TONGUES LIKE A SOUR T SHIRT
Obama debt plan would cut $4 trillion over 12 years
# 1 f liar
#2 go screw yourself
#3 Record number of Americans helped by government safety net CNNMoney.com
#4 Local EAST COAST Iron Workers Union leader has 5,000 members…..SC to Western MD……he told me just now he has had 50-70% of his members (STRUCTURAL STEEL) out of work for at least 2 years!!!!!!!!
“there is no new commercial construction….” “In DC some govt work…some coming at BETH STEEL for maybe 50….” “NO BRIDGE WORK”
WHAT???????? NO bridge work? What happened to stimulus money? “ WENT TO FILL POTHOLES AND unemployment….”
“I drink Guiness with Martin O’malley…and he’s done…” jesture of hand under chin…..
I think we ALL got the jesture under the chin....
D
# 1 f liar
#2 go screw yourself
#3 Record number of Americans helped by government safety net CNNMoney.com
#4 Local EAST COAST Iron Workers Union leader has 5,000 members…..SC to Western MD……he told me just now he has had 50-70% of his members (STRUCTURAL STEEL) out of work for at least 2 years!!!!!!!!
“there is no new commercial construction….” “In DC some govt work…some coming at BETH STEEL for maybe 50….” “NO BRIDGE WORK”
WHAT???????? NO bridge work? What happened to stimulus money? “ WENT TO FILL POTHOLES AND unemployment….”
“I drink Guiness with Martin O’malley…and he’s done…” jesture of hand under chin…..
I think we ALL got the jesture under the chin....
D
DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE?
NEW YORK (Reuters) – "JPMorgan Chase & Co posted a 67 percent increase in first-quarter earnings, topping Wall Street expectations, as it set aside less money to cover bad loans.
But the news was not all positive for the second-largest U.S. bank. It said it was still suffering from high mortgage losses. The bank's book of consumer loans shrank by 10 percent in the quarter, and loans to companies did not rise enough to offset that. *(DID this wonderful QTR come on TRADING PROFITS? HOUSING VALUES GO DOWN BUT THEY ALLOW LESS FOR LOAN LOSSES???????????) Don't dispair it looks like the incrowd EXECS will be pocketing some HEFTY bonuses!!
JP MORGAN PROFIT UP 67% (I'm so happy I could %&*&^#$)
"But the results were good enough to lift JPMorgan shares 1.2 percent in premarket trading. JPMorgan is the first of the big banks to post quarterly results, and its earnings often give investors a hint of what to expect from other financial companies.
These were good numbers. They beat estimates, but not massively. I think the financial sector generally is holding up but is not performing quite as well as we would like to see," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank in London."
AM NEWS MBA HOUSING INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP LIKE A STONE
MBAA.ORG
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 13, 2011) ” Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associationân Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 8, 2011.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7.7 percent to its lowest level since February 11, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 11.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 3.3 percent. The four week moving average is up 0.7 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 5.3 percent for the Refinance Index."
Friends, what more can I say? It's Spring Time and hope "springs" eternal, but we are truely trapped in a GROUND HOG DAY WORLD.
As THE FED continues to inflate, and DENY existance of inflation, or suggest they could UNWIND their actions since 2009 with no worries mate.....this is truely a dream world scenario.
Ever since the FED (who else?) has begun their rate policy manipulation scheme, there has been boom and bust cycles and they are occuring more frequently then in any past cycle history...and they can DENY DENY DENY all they want, we now sit for 3 YEARS!!!??? at FED FUNDS 0% !!! this and the QE BS has helped the DOOR hit the $ in the ass.
YOU POOR BASTARDS (oh me too) who want NOTHING to do with the PONZI SCHEME we call the US STOCK MARKET, the LAND of the LILI PUTIANS where each avg AMerican is made a bitch and a BAGHOLDER, a SLAVE.....the sole intent of the current policies are to make you POORER and the JPM'S of the world richer is all going to plan as the ploy to KILL THE US $ is on schedule and leaving US with little else to do but RUN don't walk to RISKY ASSET CLASSES for want of some return....as MONEY SITTING around in general is PUNK TRASH.
....and THEY aren't even trying to conceal the scheme...they are doing it and talking about it in BROAD DAYLIGHT....these DOGGONE VAMPIRES are sucking us dry in broad daylight, not even waiting for the dead of night!!!
BABY BOOMERS are now approaching and into the twilight years, the GOLDEN YEARS (gold?) and most expect to collect.....the joke is do you really think there is a STASH sitting there in a LOCK FRICKIN BOX for SS and any liabilities the GOVT would be on the hook for? HIGHER TAXES A LOCK?
The joke to all the HOOPLAH and FANFARE regarding the recent TAX CUT NEWS PROPAGANDA is milk curtling....because some of the programs listed either really don't exist or mean anything, these IDIOTS are playing with us, EVEN now cannot tell the truth or act in our best interest.
If YOU continue to rely on MSM and believe what is spewing from their pieholes, ignorance and a BAG is what awaits you.
I don't know that we can do anything, the game is complicated, and is set up to confuse you. Obama is just another clown with a suit they parade as a leader...another populist sellout.
ALL we can do, and its what I do is enlighten myself to THE TURTH, and maybe that's all I can do, talk about it...try to spread the word...I do this everyday here and wherever I go.....and I will as long as I can.
OH, the stats from yesterdays "SELLOFF" were as I suggested not impressive, and thats the reason for todays BRIGHT GREEN OPENING FUTES, no surprise there....still NO TEETH in the selling....every dip a BULLISH DREAM OPP...go for it!
Did you catch that Japanese joker, the official eating the tomato so the people would not be afraid of the RADIATION? bet those tomatoes didn't come from anywhere near that atomic plant.....
Duratek
But the news was not all positive for the second-largest U.S. bank. It said it was still suffering from high mortgage losses. The bank's book of consumer loans shrank by 10 percent in the quarter, and loans to companies did not rise enough to offset that. *(DID this wonderful QTR come on TRADING PROFITS? HOUSING VALUES GO DOWN BUT THEY ALLOW LESS FOR LOAN LOSSES???????????) Don't dispair it looks like the incrowd EXECS will be pocketing some HEFTY bonuses!!
JP MORGAN PROFIT UP 67% (I'm so happy I could %&*&^#$)
"But the results were good enough to lift JPMorgan shares 1.2 percent in premarket trading. JPMorgan is the first of the big banks to post quarterly results, and its earnings often give investors a hint of what to expect from other financial companies.
These were good numbers. They beat estimates, but not massively. I think the financial sector generally is holding up but is not performing quite as well as we would like to see," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank in London."
AM NEWS MBA HOUSING INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP LIKE A STONE
MBAA.ORG
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 13, 2011) ” Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associationân Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 8, 2011.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7.7 percent to its lowest level since February 11, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 11.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 3.3 percent. The four week moving average is up 0.7 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 5.3 percent for the Refinance Index."
Friends, what more can I say? It's Spring Time and hope "springs" eternal, but we are truely trapped in a GROUND HOG DAY WORLD.
As THE FED continues to inflate, and DENY existance of inflation, or suggest they could UNWIND their actions since 2009 with no worries mate.....this is truely a dream world scenario.
Ever since the FED (who else?) has begun their rate policy manipulation scheme, there has been boom and bust cycles and they are occuring more frequently then in any past cycle history...and they can DENY DENY DENY all they want, we now sit for 3 YEARS!!!??? at FED FUNDS 0% !!! this and the QE BS has helped the DOOR hit the $ in the ass.
YOU POOR BASTARDS (oh me too) who want NOTHING to do with the PONZI SCHEME we call the US STOCK MARKET, the LAND of the LILI PUTIANS where each avg AMerican is made a bitch and a BAGHOLDER, a SLAVE.....the sole intent of the current policies are to make you POORER and the JPM'S of the world richer is all going to plan as the ploy to KILL THE US $ is on schedule and leaving US with little else to do but RUN don't walk to RISKY ASSET CLASSES for want of some return....as MONEY SITTING around in general is PUNK TRASH.
....and THEY aren't even trying to conceal the scheme...they are doing it and talking about it in BROAD DAYLIGHT....these DOGGONE VAMPIRES are sucking us dry in broad daylight, not even waiting for the dead of night!!!
BABY BOOMERS are now approaching and into the twilight years, the GOLDEN YEARS (gold?) and most expect to collect.....the joke is do you really think there is a STASH sitting there in a LOCK FRICKIN BOX for SS and any liabilities the GOVT would be on the hook for? HIGHER TAXES A LOCK?
The joke to all the HOOPLAH and FANFARE regarding the recent TAX CUT NEWS PROPAGANDA is milk curtling....because some of the programs listed either really don't exist or mean anything, these IDIOTS are playing with us, EVEN now cannot tell the truth or act in our best interest.
If YOU continue to rely on MSM and believe what is spewing from their pieholes, ignorance and a BAG is what awaits you.
I don't know that we can do anything, the game is complicated, and is set up to confuse you. Obama is just another clown with a suit they parade as a leader...another populist sellout.
ALL we can do, and its what I do is enlighten myself to THE TURTH, and maybe that's all I can do, talk about it...try to spread the word...I do this everyday here and wherever I go.....and I will as long as I can.
OH, the stats from yesterdays "SELLOFF" were as I suggested not impressive, and thats the reason for todays BRIGHT GREEN OPENING FUTES, no surprise there....still NO TEETH in the selling....every dip a BULLISH DREAM OPP...go for it!
Did you catch that Japanese joker, the official eating the tomato so the people would not be afraid of the RADIATION? bet those tomatoes didn't come from anywhere near that atomic plant.....
Duratek
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
FEAR NOT? MAYBE NOT JUST YET
VIX ended the day below 18, so I am guessing we are hitting some turbulence but unless the fear index kicks up pretty good, I can;t say this is any more than a correction to primary trend at this point.
I am monitoring all kinds of action, so if have get PROOF technically from the selling mechanism that we have a trend change we will deal with that when it comes.
Commodities were due for some froth to come out. I sold my position in JJG (grains) at Friday close and avoided a draw down today, I had felt it was coming and decided to come out of that trade.
SMall business optimism fell last month and REMAINS in Recessionary territory, it never left! I will be getting some data later tonight that may help solve some of the riddle, and good chance the decline has further to go.
D
I am monitoring all kinds of action, so if have get PROOF technically from the selling mechanism that we have a trend change we will deal with that when it comes.
Commodities were due for some froth to come out. I sold my position in JJG (grains) at Friday close and avoided a draw down today, I had felt it was coming and decided to come out of that trade.
SMall business optimism fell last month and REMAINS in Recessionary territory, it never left! I will be getting some data later tonight that may help solve some of the riddle, and good chance the decline has further to go.
D
CUTTING EDGE MEDIA
BIGGEST BUDGET CUT EVER (CNN)
8:05am: Hundreds of programs face reductions. Total slashed: Nearly $40 billion.
Thank goodness to CNN and others for keeping it real. nothing like a 2% budget cut to get headlines BIGGEST EVER.
Programs in place that have been ineffective in reviving America's #1 economic driver HOUSING, continue to drive up stocks and commodities. These policies are making the GULF between haves and have nots the greatest in our history.
In the meantime the cost of food and energy are skyrocketing which hits the middle and lower class right between the eyes.....good job.
1332 SPX is still holding, is this the prime BAGHOLDER AREA or can they pump this thing up even higher? NOT TODAY I DONT THINK
D
8:05am: Hundreds of programs face reductions. Total slashed: Nearly $40 billion.
Thank goodness to CNN and others for keeping it real. nothing like a 2% budget cut to get headlines BIGGEST EVER.
Programs in place that have been ineffective in reviving America's #1 economic driver HOUSING, continue to drive up stocks and commodities. These policies are making the GULF between haves and have nots the greatest in our history.
In the meantime the cost of food and energy are skyrocketing which hits the middle and lower class right between the eyes.....good job.
1332 SPX is still holding, is this the prime BAGHOLDER AREA or can they pump this thing up even higher? NOT TODAY I DONT THINK
D
Monday, April 11, 2011
Obama prevents budget cuts to favorite programs
"A close look at the government shutdown-dodging agreement to cut federal spending by $38 billion reveals that lawmakers significantly eased the fiscal pain by pruning money left over from previous years, using accounting sleight of hand and going after programs President Barack Obama had targeted anyway."
WHY does this NOT surprise me?
ALCOA SLUMPS IN AH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-11/alcoa-shares-drop-after-aluminum-producer-s-quarterly-sales-miss-estimates.html?cmpid=yhoo
$35 MILLION in SALES.....and market valuation? almost $6 BABABILLION!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MCP+Key+Statistics oh the madness!!!! oh the idiocy
Market is ROLLING OVER IMHO....
Duratek
WHY does this NOT surprise me?
ALCOA SLUMPS IN AH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-11/alcoa-shares-drop-after-aluminum-producer-s-quarterly-sales-miss-estimates.html?cmpid=yhoo
$35 MILLION in SALES.....and market valuation? almost $6 BABABILLION!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MCP+Key+Statistics oh the madness!!!! oh the idiocy
Market is ROLLING OVER IMHO....
Duratek
UNCOMFORTABLY NUMB
Looking over the weekend landscape, I can't help but notice, and it jumps right out at me how BULLISH (not opinion) it all seems to be in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary....how wrong I could be?
Several polls of Investment managers and Individual Investors show bullishness near the all time highs seen in 2007-2008 era and 2000.....even if not timing tool, that should hold you tight from new contributions. The SPX dividend yield is now solidly under 2% and this is near historic lows.Insider SELLING is near 10 to 1 buying...signs of distribution are high.
Almost 3 years into OFFICIAL Recovery unemployment official or not remains higher than at any prior recovery in history.
Those needing government assistance remain at historical highs. The housing market, which remains the #1 asset (or was) for individual wealth, is mired near the worst climate since the 2009 reaction lows...some in the 50 year plus of data keeping.
When you consider 7 of the last 8 (yes I repeat myself) Recoveries were led by housing....this gives me pause.
When I show you charts of the monetary base, the recent rise from just January is nothing short of jaw dropping spectacular and is near vertical adding some $600 BILLION in just 4 months....this smells of crisis reaction....where none is reported.
EVEN AS INFLATION ROARS, EVEN AS ECB and some countries RAISE RATES...here in this country and our FED continue to PREACH that inflation is transitory and will not be a problem....and when you take out FOOD and ENERGY, well there isn't a problem at all!!!!!!!!!!!
I think there is a DANGEROUS disconnect between what avg people are experiencing and what those in control of our destiny are saying....they are obviously STUPID or LYING.
Duratek
Several polls of Investment managers and Individual Investors show bullishness near the all time highs seen in 2007-2008 era and 2000.....even if not timing tool, that should hold you tight from new contributions. The SPX dividend yield is now solidly under 2% and this is near historic lows.Insider SELLING is near 10 to 1 buying...signs of distribution are high.
Almost 3 years into OFFICIAL Recovery unemployment official or not remains higher than at any prior recovery in history.
Those needing government assistance remain at historical highs. The housing market, which remains the #1 asset (or was) for individual wealth, is mired near the worst climate since the 2009 reaction lows...some in the 50 year plus of data keeping.
When you consider 7 of the last 8 (yes I repeat myself) Recoveries were led by housing....this gives me pause.
When I show you charts of the monetary base, the recent rise from just January is nothing short of jaw dropping spectacular and is near vertical adding some $600 BILLION in just 4 months....this smells of crisis reaction....where none is reported.
EVEN AS INFLATION ROARS, EVEN AS ECB and some countries RAISE RATES...here in this country and our FED continue to PREACH that inflation is transitory and will not be a problem....and when you take out FOOD and ENERGY, well there isn't a problem at all!!!!!!!!!!!
I think there is a DANGEROUS disconnect between what avg people are experiencing and what those in control of our destiny are saying....they are obviously STUPID or LYING.
Duratek
Saturday, April 09, 2011
ANGRY WHITE MAN. DOOMED TO REPEAT
weekend Doug Noland Diverging Monetary Policies
SHUTDOWN AVOIDED, HEADLINES FROM THE BLOW HARDS!!!!!
"Shutdown avoided, White House, Congress cheer deal"
"Last-minute agreement avoids a shutdown"
"Today Americans of different beliefs came together again," President Barack Obama
WHY this is heart warming....I'm gonna shed a tear!!!
FREINDS....we aren't that STUPID are we?
"Last-minute agreement avoids a shutdown"
"Today Americans of different beliefs came together again," President Barack Obama
WHY this is heart warming....I'm gonna shed a tear!!!
FREINDS....we aren't that STUPID are we?
IN WHAT LIFE with all the shit going on in the world, sovereign debt, Tsunami, radiation, with $111 OIL, CRB thru roof, $ crumbling, 7.5 MIL less workers than 3 yrs ago, record #'s on gov't assistance, housing market worst in history, ZIRP, QE, do we have a raging BULL MKT???????
It's the reality you get when the FEDERAL RESERVE throws aside its MANDATE OF "STABLE CURRENCY" and the FULL EMPLOYMENT? they set aside the mandate for in their OWN WORDS....."raising risky asset prices......" for their WEALTH EFFECT......how's that working for you America?
Are these IDIOTS SO DELUSIONAL THAT THEY DONT SEE THE DANGER BREWING WITH THE CURRENT STATUS QUO? And the millionaires in congress, most NEVER holding real jobs, none taking pay cuts like rest of Americans and have free health care, unlike most Americans.....the rulers don't share OUR reality...and never will.
***THE 3 STOOGES
(when all asset classes rise except US $ and URANIUM!!!!)
***THE 3 STOOGESCan't wait for all the asset classes to rock n roll Monday on such historic good news as "shut down avoided" world saved....we cut 1/2 of 1% of the budget....boy that was thru the night tough bargaining!)
Duratek
. $39 billion in cuts (wow that will make a DENT in the $1.5 TRILLION shortfall?)
Friday, April 08, 2011
IS THE US $ ABOUT TO GO OVER A CLIFF?
"With gold trading at all-time highs and silver at multi-decade highs, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. When asked about the US dollar Turk stated, “The key development is that the US dollar is in fact breaking down. This is something that we have been talking about for a few weeks now and the dollar index here in Europe is at the lowest levels since November of 2009. We’re closing in on those lows of 74.17, once that level breaks the floodgates open. Put another way, the dollar falls of the edge of the cliff.”
The avg American owns NO GOLD OR SILVER......we have our major asset as our homes, and our banks and safe havens pay 0% and have been TAKEN AWAY!!!
So should we bend over and grab our ankles? don't we at least deserve a reach around?
If you're connected, youy're doing OK, spit on the sidewalk avg Joe and get hauled away.....play the game of buying RISKY ASSET CLASSES or watch your savings in US $'s go up in smoke DIRECTLY from gov't and FED policies...going counter to the AMERICAN WAY.
The avg family of 2 kids......way of life is under attack WHO RESPRESENTS YOU?
Duratek
CRISIS
I believe CLEAN DIESEL technology exists already to cure the current oil crisis....and diesel outpaces any ELECTRIC HYBRID on MPG......but let them search for NEW technologies when one already exists that could make a HUGE impact....and subsidize others that cannot otherwise be viable...and forget letting the free market system pick winners and losers.
Electric only cars a JOKE.....NAT GAS a JOKE......ETHANOL a JOKE.....most alt energy sources do little or require fossil fuels to recover or charge....how about better mass transit like in japan? Hey I love the new Ford Shelby GT 500.....but United States House Prices
ZIllow.comhttp://www.zillow.com/local-info/
Think of WHY inflation IS the goal of the FED and CB's? This is an attempt to neutralize the bigger threat.....and mask DEFLATION.....take all the LOSS OF VALUE TO THE WORLDS REAL ESTATE.....todays inflated assets do little to repair that damage.
What IS occurring today is the creation of STAGFLATION at best...and I thank them....Pay MORE for what you NEED....pay LESS for what you could live without.......SEE NO IMPROVEMENT in the one asset MOST have MAJORITY of wealth in HOUSING....so it's a mistake on their part not to OWN GOLD< SILVER< ENERGY< STOCKS....many have gone INTO their 401K's and withdrawn money.....in attempt to survive....but current policies do little to minimize the pain on those MOST effected.
Those feeling the WEALTH EFFECT VS THOSE FEELING THE PAIN....a SAD %...remember I never said here don't play the markets for gains...should have...should be....until the run for the hills signal.....maybe that is where I stand firm...there will be a time sooner than later where that signal comes...this is NOT the dawn of a new day its a kick you can down the road day....as long as it lasts
Duratek
Electric only cars a JOKE.....NAT GAS a JOKE......ETHANOL a JOKE.....most alt energy sources do little or require fossil fuels to recover or charge....how about better mass transit like in japan? Hey I love the new Ford Shelby GT 500.....but United States House Prices
ZIllow.comhttp://www.zillow.com/local-info/
Those feeling the WEALTH EFFECT VS THOSE FEELING THE PAIN....a SAD %...remember I never said here don't play the markets for gains...should have...should be....until the run for the hills signal.....maybe that is where I stand firm...there will be a time sooner than later where that signal comes...this is NOT the dawn of a new day its a kick you can down the road day....as long as it lasts
Duratek
THE SHOCK IS THE BABBLE COMING FROM THE LEADERS
High Oil can be partial cause of Recession
"Even though the exact causes of an economic recession are still a mystery there are numerous theories that have been put forth as to what causes an economic recession. But probably the most common thought on what causes a recession is that they are caused by events that have an economy-wide impact. Some examples of these events would be: increase in interest rates or a decline in consumer confidence.
In fact the general consensus is that a recession is primarily caused by the actions taken to control the money supply in the economy. So in the United States many economists believe that it is because of the Federal Reserve that we go into a recession. The reason for this is that in the United States it is the Federal Reserves responsibility to maintain an ideal balance between money supply, interest rates and inflation"
"Loose monetary policy (link) led to bubbles in emerging markets and US housing. So what is happening now?"
"In our opinion, the Great Recession of 2008-09 is the result of a simultaneous shock of surging energy prices and mounting credit problems (Chart 8). The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but it was the oil price spike that killed emerging market growth. We firmly believe that the world economy would not have contracted so sharply in 4Q08 without the tremendous oil price spike to $150/bbl that occurred in 3Q08 (Chart 9)."
more
"Our economists believe that a jump in oil prices to the $70-80/bbl range could start to pose some meaningful risks to economic growth in OECD countries. Meanwhile, our economists see the risks to growth in the $90-100/bbl range for EMs."
I am worried about the people in this country at risk, and if you think $4 plus for gas and $100 oil let alone $111 PLUS oil will not pose problems, think again.
Everything you buy is transported somehow, the famers use energy to produce and cultivate crops, to get them to market.....the Chinese crap that makes its way to Target and Walmart....food on your table, to get you to work and to play....Houston we have a problem.
Consumption of OIL is not = to the current oil shock price rally.
How can gold and silver be in a bubble if hardly anyone owns any physical?
How effective has been the current policies and ZIRP in reviving the housing market?
A weaker US $ give appearence of rising corporate profits. The FED has targeted and effectively been chief manipulator of the rising asset prices of things. However they use measures that tell YOU that "inflation is not a problem....." then how can you believe anything they say?
The focus is on the gov't to come to a budget agreement......but who gives 2 hoots.....there will be a $1.5 TRILLION deficit even if they cut $100B !! its PEANUTS they argue about.
"force you out of CASH and INTO RISKIER ASSETS...." This IS the defacto FED policy.....which IMHO is in direct conflict with their MANIFESTO DOCTRINE.
Duratek....the lonely voice of reason....
NOTHING ELSE MATTERS
BERNANKE GONE WILD ADJ MONETARY BASE In a world where nothing else matters, OIL to $111.70, Gold to new highs, SIlver parabolic to above $40 and new highs....world markets GREEN, US futures green...the reason is INFLATION.....and the avg American is NOT prepared and owns NO gold or silver....the US FIAT dropped .5% overnight.
The power to be are getting what they want, because inflation dows not keep them up at night, because it is an illusion, DEFLATION is the dirty word and what is being fought.
This BULL S market continues on, and it really doesn't matter to most people as they fight for survival in a system that....looks after the connected and nothing else matters
D
The power to be are getting what they want, because inflation dows not keep them up at night, because it is an illusion, DEFLATION is the dirty word and what is being fought.
This BULL S market continues on, and it really doesn't matter to most people as they fight for survival in a system that....looks after the connected and nothing else matters
D
Thursday, April 07, 2011
BULLISH BREAKOUTS
D
CRUDE COMMENTS
$110 OIL!!! Gas appraoching $4....surely to over run that price....friends, I KNOW the market seems unbeatable, but this market is not one running on the VOTES of the avg investor, it is the play thing of the Banksters and FED funnel system.....where it goes I don't know....but I'm pretty sure about how it ends and where it goes from there.
Duratek
Duratek
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
WHY DON'T I BUY THE RECOVERY?
First......I am not here to argue that money can be made riding a rally....especially if diversified into metals and energy......OK if I am riding something higher I am happy....especially if I don't care why..... But I DO care why. FED has come out and without any hint of doubt, their MAIN goal is to make it SO PAINFUL to hold cash, that you are FORCED INTO RISK ASSETS......that's their plan for recovery.
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
FED MAKES A MARKET
"And part of the Fed's intention with its liquidity pumping programs has been to make it more painful for investors to stay in cash, forcing them to buy riskier assets." WELL this sure sounds a sustainable situation and a free market system working well.... D
RIDE UP TOGETHER, IMPLODE TOGETHER...THE NO PLACE TO HIDE ECONOMY
GLOBAL TSUNAMI COURTESY OF FED LINK...the ONLY thing going for this mkt is FED ACTIONS......by the time this is very evident....and the QE train derails.....$108 oil..tsunami...derailing 3rd largest economy, radiation....inflation in leading economies.....DOA housing mkt....sovereign debt....now the BULLS say.....look at the mkt go anyways...how remarkable is that? so why worry, ride the trend? IMHO that shows total lack of understanding...the FED QE is ONLY thing keeping this going.....and as Chris Martenson suggests...the all in one mkts will implode together with NO place to hide......BWDIK? I know what I know and thats enough...fabricated, manipulated.....surgically enhanced markets implode eventually.....free markets operate normally....we are in a GROUNDHOG DAY MOMENT...doomed to repeat BOOM BUST cycles as long as FED is around....and playing games as they do....the IN CROWD, connected Banksters thrive as the avg joe dies. In this environment which of the media sources is CRUCIFYING SOKOL for front running his companies purchase which made him millions? what many are saying is this is fine OK, nothing wrong....he has "skin in the game"....wouldn't ANY of you like that kind of skin? game? while it wasn't 100% a certainty Berkshire would buy said company he bought 100,000 shares in AHEAD of time, then PUSHED for them to buy......the odds were much better than buying a lottery ticket......and a 100,000 share purchase was quite the gamble unless you rig the game.....knowing NOBODY will dare do a thing.....TRY not dotting an I on your tax return next time and see what happens.....trading on INSIDE INFO or even creating an environment for such is much safer to get away with. AS LONG as YOU keep buying their stocks and bonds.....YOU will continue to be their bitch and bag holder....enjoy D
"GEITHNER WARNS OF DEBT LIMIT"
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – "The United States will hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday, ramping up pressure on Congress to act to avoid a debt default. "The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said in a letter to congressional leaders. "Default by the United States is unthinkable." Previously, the Treasury had forecast that the $14.3 trillion statutory debt limit would be reached between April 15 and May 31. As of Friday, Treasury borrowing stood just $95 billion from the ceiling. " Amazing how the market has been so resilient in the face of wars....oil.....tsunami...radiation..etc.....just read my last post...... D
Monday, April 04, 2011
LURED THE PERFECT WORD
"Responsibility for the rally largely, then, falls into the hands of the institutional investors and the big hedge fund managers whose access to large sums of capital moves the markets. It's no wonder, considering that the Federal Reserve's program-quantitative easing, or QE-is targeted directly at buying Treasurys from large institutions who then are expected to use the proceeds to invest in risk assets like stocks.." QE2 is slated to end this June.... Duratek
BUSINESS AS USUAL
On SOKOL STOCK DEAL......"nothing done wrong here....don't investors want execs to have SKIN IN THE GAME?" what???? WHAT????? Sure, it makes perfect sense for the INSIDERS to get IN FRONT of a potential buyout by THEIR company by gaining a position BEFORE that happens...company DOES get bought out...stock soars, INSIDER makes MILLIONS....."uhmm..we'll investigate......." investigate my hemrhoids while your at it....these BANKSTERS operate by a seperat set of rules then we have to abide by... To date...NOT ONE BANKSTER has been brought to charge with RIPPING US OFF during the previous financial crisis...not ONE.....this is the game you play in...why don't we SELL all our stocks.....let the INSIDERS be the bagholders for once D
Sunday, April 03, 2011
SHADOW INVENTORY OF THE HOUSING MARKET
* "The official inventory: 3.5 million homes. The National Association of Realtors says the current inventory of existing homes that are listed for sale would take 8.6 months to work down at the current sales pace. In "normal" times, the inventory backlog is more in the vicinity of six months. * The unofficial shadow inventory: 1.8 million homes. According to research firm CoreLogic, there's another 1.8 million homes sitting in shadow inventory. These are homes that don't yet show up in NAR's Multiple Listing Service as being for sale, but that are likely to hit the market at some point. They include homes that banks have already foreclosed on but have yet to put up for sale, homes that are somewhere in the foreclosure process, and homes in which owners are at least 90 days late on their mortgage payments. CoreLogic estimates that those 1.8 million homes represents an additional 9 months of potential supply given the pace of how bank-owned property and pending foreclosures make their way to market. * The severely underwater inventory: 2 million. CoreLogic uses this category to refer to homeowners that are at least 50 percent underwater on their mortgages. Now there's nothing that says homeowners with negative equity will in fact walk away from their mortgages. But it's reasonable to presume that short of a quick turnaround in home values or a settlement between the state attorneys general and lenders that leads to substantial loan modifications, a significant chunk of these homes will end up on the market in the coming months or years. Add it all up, and NAR's 8.6 month official backlog triples to about two years or so. " The rally in stocks is sort of like the "shadow Inventory" in housing....and when LIGHT is shined down on truth it is ugly D
QE1 and QE2
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10520 When the CEO of Walmart comes out and wanrs of inflation, when Hershey's raises prices by 10%. with gas nearing $4.......FED policy is reaching the land of diminishing returns. D
Friday, April 01, 2011
MORE BULLISH NEWS
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Builders started work on fewer homes, apartments and government projects in February, pushing construction activity down to the lowest level in more than a decade. Hey, buy stocks because? they are going up... D
CLAIMS AND ONE WIERD ASS DREAM
" The initial claims level declined from 394,000 for the week ending March 19 to 388,000 for the week ending March 26. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 383,000. The four-week moving average inched higher (394,250 vs. 391,000) this week, but the overall long-term trend has been a slow move lower. We expect claims to continue to fall until they reach their pre-recession average of 320,000." Recovery level of claims should be below 320,000....4 wk MA is 394,000! this is 3 years into recovery?? AVG workweek unchanged at 34.3....no change in wages paid.......where is the PRESSURE to HIRE? of this came 2 years ago I would be ecstatic........ OIL above $107 !!!! I think we need some Wage GROWTH? 2 year SHORT TERM yields are SPIKING....flattening curve but reaction initially is all yields rising....and the market CAN force FEDS HAND.....when YIELDS RISE anyone holding notes can be bruised. Housing is not going to recover ANYTIME SOON, this IS the MAIN driver of our economy!!!!!!!!! OF COURSE SOKOL from Berskhire buying in front of company he recomended Buffet to buy is JUST A COINCIDENCE....do NOT expect anything to happen to him, he is one of the insiders...nothing ever happens to them.....he had NO IDEA the company would be bought, thats why he purchased 100,000 shares!!!! LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EXPLAIN THIS TO ME, why this far into RECOVERY do we have record #'s on government assistance? WITH SO much PROOF of recovery, with inflationary pressures rising....after 3 years of ZIRP......why is the FED standing pat? DREAM I HAD SO I am out eating and I turn around and there right next to me is a FED Govenor...."YOU SUCK" I said.....he seemed startled....."YOUR policies led to the housing bubble, now you are creating commodity inflation, and your ZIRP policies and QE 1,2 3? are creating even more imbalances and reckless speculation...." Then like a wooos I started to cry....haaaaaa by I gave him all I had.... **The labor participation rate remains UNCHANGED...showing that those terminally unemployed do NOT see opportunity and have not come back looking......we still have 7.5 MILLION people LESS in work force than before the crisis......let the celebration begin.. D
Thursday, March 31, 2011
BUBBLES FULLY RETRACE THEIR ORIGINS
FED POLICY OF ZIRP HAS FAILED HERE
FED POLICY OF ZIRP WORKS HERE....OOOOPS NO INFLATION RIGHT?
HARRY DENT "HOUSING IS DEAD" Does anyone ask.....with the greatest efforts by the FED and the lowest rates in history, and all the gov't stimulus......housing is recording its worst statistics in the 50 years of keeping data.... And as Dent describes, there are many places including CHina that have housing bubbles which have not yet burst.....Chinese stock market has NOT made a new high since 2009 SMOKE AND MIRRORS HERE MY FRIENDS
.. D
RALLY PAID FOR
ADJ MONETARY BASE LINK $500 BILLION in 3 months Briefing.com "unemployment claims FELL....." what they don't tell you is they FELL because the worthless data you got last week of 382,000 was REVISED UP to 394,000 !!!!!!!!!!!!!! so now it fell to 388,000 instead of RISING 6,000...this shit turns my stomach. The 4 week avg is over 390,000 claims a week...this is NOT consistant with a JOB GENERATING atmosphere. OIL at $105, no relief to consumer at the pumps or for heat.....sure let's switch to NAT GAS....WHAT do you think happens to the price of NAT GAS THEN? YES it will skyrocket and its a no win win ...NAT GAS is cheap because its not in the forefront...funny thing is, this winter PROPANE prices were THRU THE ROOF!....its a game of FUEL EFFICIENCY.....NOT SOURCE....a push for more clean deisel would solve most problems, it already gets 40-50 MPG ! better than any hybrid.....see VW Rabbit Diesel. WInd? Solar? ethanol?....let ANY of them stand on their own 2 feet without SUBSIDIES.... ITS ALL BS.....we're dumb but we're not stupid Look for 1332-1337 to turn this rally into dust.....IMHO it's on fumes D
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
SHRINKAGE
Most are aware of the dwindling size of portions sold in the same size containers? like OJ and tuna, chips etc.....don't expect fanfare of anyone telling you your bag is half full not half empty? and don't expect this to find its way into inflation data.
Consumer Sentiment flagged in March and one of the main concerns is inflation of food and energy.....this could of course influence future purchases.
End of quarter gaming reaches a fever pitch today...1332 still stands as previous level to best.....I guess we don't need ROBUST employment and a healthy housing market to experience a vibrant economy....
Duratek
ZIRP
I applied for EXXON gas card, just to keep my gasoline purchases on one card to track them better.......but I might not activate it (even though I dont run balances) 24.99% RATE......the CONSUMER who is using their CC's to maintain a lifestyle.....will end in tears.....NO advantage to little Joe in the FED ZIRP policies.... It is POPULAR belief that as long as the FED continues to EXPAND their balance sheet, stocks markets will rally
WINDOW IN TO THE FUTURE
BEIJING (Reuters) – Dollar dominance is sowing the seeds of financial turmoil, and the solution is to promote new reserve currencies, a Chinese government economist said in a paper published on the eve of a G20 meeting about how to reform the global monetary system. Although not an official policy statement, the paper by Xu Hongcai, a department deputy director at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, offered a window onto the domestic pressures bearing on Beijing to move away from a dollar-centric global economy. The China Center, a top government think tank, has represented the Chinese government in organizing a forum on Thursday in Nanjing that will bring together finance ministers, central bankers and academics from the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
DATA WOULD SEEM NOT TO MATTER
I showed you how the FED balance sheet is the rally....there is NO refuting that.....here confidence has dropped SHARPLY....but this is already from a historically DEPRESSED level.....current perceptions registered a big fat 40? by now it should 100 PLUS....total reading came in under 64......this is MUCH lower than the worst reading after 911.
Housing came in at the worst reading in the history of the data going back over 50 years.....the ONE CONSTANT during this time is FED rates at 0%.....A JAW DROPPING surge in ADJ monetary base and FED balance sheet and the GAO forced to drop its mark to market accounting rule.......voila we have a recovery.
And there is one my friends, there is one......but not the kind justified by a 100% move in the stock markets.....it's a bought and not paid for recovery and it can't stand on its own 2 feet or there would be a move to normalize operations here......wouldnt there be?
TALK IS CHEAP!
Monday, March 28, 2011
CAN WE ACHIEVE A REAL RECOVERY?
Employment and housing data MUST improve……..inflation preferred over deflation. Problems with getting parts overseas, makes companies rethink off shoring, manufacturing gets revived HERE! TAX LAWS MUST CHANGE. US CORPORATIONS (60 minute piece) ship jobs and profits overseas to avoid US taxes which are highest in the world….35% vs 12-20% elsewhere….costing 10’s of BILLIONS of tax revenue and countless 100’s of 1,000’s of jobs. TAX Policies are ALWAYS short sighted….higher taxes make demand go limp. Since this WONT happen, the recovery will remain NARROW in focus, even more so than 2003-2007. Market is inflated directly by growth in money supply, FED action…..not sure how they get us to more normal….I DO think it matters…. is there any possible smoothr real exit strategy? INFLATION MODERATES.......BANKS LOOSEN LENDING RESTRAINTS I take NO JOY in reading nor writing about a less than happy ending...I won't jump off any bridge....but I also will not see something that isn't there..it is what it is and deal with it D
US TREASURIES "SAFEST PLACE TO BE?"
I'm not so sure about that....yields popping out above wedge......mountains of debt issued and yet to be...
D
Saturday, March 26, 2011
ARE RATES ABOUT TO DROP?
3rd lower high being made, forming trendline....it could break above, but we have parameters for trade.The stock market has had a nice run the Dow is up 5.2% and 600 points in just the last 7 trading days! but the avg up volume has ONLY been 63% over this time and by other measures this is a very suspect rally from a technical standpoint....SO FAR there has been good point gains but the up volume has yet to crack 90% and only once 80% during this time....it had been preceded by 2 90% down volume days and expansion of volume during the selloff.
SLuggish demand seems to be meeting distribution.....and IMHO we are RIPE to resume downtrend in the ST UNLESS we get significant surge in buying demand.
D
Sorry, GOP: Tax revenue needs to go up
Sorry, GOP: Tax revenue needs to go up
" Here's one way to conceive of just how big the problem is.
If lawmakers wanted to permanently freeze the debt held by the public at the today's level -- 62% of GDP -- they would need to immediately cut spending by 35% or about $1.2 trillion, according to the Government Accountability Office. And those cuts would need to be permanent from hereon out.
How hard would that be?
Consider that in 2010, all of discretionary spending -- including defense -- totaled $1.35 trillion. In other words, to do deficit reduction all on the spending side means "you have to cut into the real meat," said Roberton Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.
Consider, too, how much fun lawmakers are having right now trying to negotiate spending cuts for this year alone. Their working range: Between $10 billion and $61 billion."
" Here's one way to conceive of just how big the problem is.
If lawmakers wanted to permanently freeze the debt held by the public at the today's level -- 62% of GDP -- they would need to immediately cut spending by 35% or about $1.2 trillion, according to the Government Accountability Office. And those cuts would need to be permanent from hereon out.
How hard would that be?
Consider that in 2010, all of discretionary spending -- including defense -- totaled $1.35 trillion. In other words, to do deficit reduction all on the spending side means "you have to cut into the real meat," said Roberton Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.
Consider, too, how much fun lawmakers are having right now trying to negotiate spending cuts for this year alone. Their working range: Between $10 billion and $61 billion."
HOW TO FEED A RALLY
TRADER DAN BLOG LINK
Is there any question in your mind that in early 2009, QE1 and end to mark to market accounting was about only thing between the market and all out collapse?
Then with nasty 16% summer correction in 2010 QE2 was born and lookey what happened.
DO I wish for the alternative outcome? NO, but you can forstall comeupins for so long, and at some point MUST reconcile your books.
Added to otherwise misery is now inflation of our food an energy....as the housing market lays DOA...how did other excursions into FED rate fixing and manipulations end?
Duratek
WHISKEY DRINKERS
ARDBEG WHISKEY 1990 Limited Edition (this is UK site) FIND SOME....PUT IT IN FREEZER, SERVE CHILLED...forget your troubles!! unbleepin amazing....lit my mouth and my ass up!!!
D
D
Friday, March 25, 2011
LOOKING AT BULL AND BEAR THROUGH DAILY RENKO
Using 25 point moves to keep NOISE DOWN..all have great weekend....maybe back Sat for post
Duratek...keep the faith...help your brother
MODERN DAY HERO
Always someone else (saying goes) who is worse off (but true)….here is a HEROES attitude
"I never expected to have to live through anything like this," he said mournfully. Suzuki is one of Soma's luckier residents, but the tsunami washed away the shop where he sold fish and seaweed.
"My business is gone. I don't think I will ever be able to recover," said Suzuki, 59.
Still, he managed to find a bright side. "The one good thing is the way everyone is pulling together and helping each other. No one is stealing or looting," he said.
"It makes me feel proud to be Japanese."
I can attest, I was in japan (when we got 255 yen for $1) 25 years ago……..even the cab drivers wore white gloves….could go out at night almost anywhere, NEVER FEAR CRIME!!! Always polite….couteous, friendly (got as far as Kyota)…..this country…..cant always say same
"I never expected to have to live through anything like this," he said mournfully. Suzuki is one of Soma's luckier residents, but the tsunami washed away the shop where he sold fish and seaweed.
"My business is gone. I don't think I will ever be able to recover," said Suzuki, 59.
Still, he managed to find a bright side. "The one good thing is the way everyone is pulling together and helping each other. No one is stealing or looting," he said.
"It makes me feel proud to be Japanese."
I can attest, I was in japan (when we got 255 yen for $1) 25 years ago……..even the cab drivers wore white gloves….could go out at night almost anywhere, NEVER FEAR CRIME!!! Always polite….couteous, friendly (got as far as Kyota)…..this country…..cant always say same
A PERFECT WORLD WE DON'T LIVE IN
Here's my worthless 2 cents worth.
Government would be FORCED to get smaller, tax less....spend less. NO LOBBY GROUPS allowed to create special interests.....or people who can be bought off.
NO DIVIDEND TAX BREAKS which let the UBER RICH (who have millions of shares) keep more money and the AVG dude could care less, they don't own enough stocks for this to matter...
LOWER TAXES AND DUES TOO ALL WORKING PEOPLE.....not the already disgusting filthy insiders who like a GE pay no taxes........FREE HEALTH CARE TO ALL US CITIZENS paid for by increased taxes on the UBER WEALTHY and LESS GOVT spending on WARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The current sysetms in place in our world in particular will not last many years down the road....as a majority of citizens get tried of being hosed and sold out and SADDLED WITH THE INSIDERS BAD DEBTS for generations to come as they WAX RICH at OUR EXPENSE!
UBER WEALTHY PEOPLE (yes I am Republican) should be taxed out the ass....so maybe they only have 2 10,000 sq ft mansions.......MORE GOES BACK TO THE WORKING STIFF people......in the form of LOWER TAXES for ALL making under $500,000 a year......but for those making 10's of millions.......you can afford to and should pay much more than current, that can ONLY be done with a FLAT TAX....period.......the REAL consumers of the world paying less in taxes and getting FREE HEALTH CARE (as do Canadians) will be freed up to buy all the unsold homes, buy durable goods......revitalize the economy...let the PEOPLE CHOOSE WHERE THE MONEY GOES.....and do away with all the STUPID SUBSIDIES....if something can't stand on it's own then it shouldn't be....like ETHANOL for instance....how stupid is that?
When you have a system that outsizes returns for a VERY FEW (dont lecture me on the 1% pay 90%.....) and the life they lead so doesn't look like the avg persons........the system needs an overhaul.
COMPANIES taxes should not be raised EXCEPT companies like GE who are allowed to shelter profits OVERSEAS....and nothing is done...wonder why Obama is so buddy up with Immelt?
FED RESERVE SYSTEM ABOLISHED....let rates be born of a FREE MARKET SYSTEM...the FED'S manipulating has gotten us booms, but they always are followed by bigger and BIGGER BUSTS!!!! and has cost the US $ 40% of its value since 2000.
A SYSTEM that SCREWS SAVERS.....and ONLY REWARDS RISK TAKERS.
BANKSTERS BAD DEBTS GET FOISTED ON THE PUBLIC (BANK BAILOUTS, FREDDIE MAC ETC) ??? nobody asked us........ or maybe they did, we said no, they did it anyways.
LAST time I looked, the worst financial crimes in history, the worst crisis is followed by ZERO PROSECUTIONS???
Last time I looked the housing market is at worst levels ever, savers get 0%, few jobs, food and energy are through the roof (but fed will say "inflation contained") but the stock market soars.....and that's where the 1% are saying THANK YOU!!
STOCK MARKET GAINS VS real policy and in the meantime the HOUSING MARKET HAS RECORDED ITS WORST DATA in the 50 years since it began tabulating....so there's progress.....well this is just a beginning point for discussion...last time I looked our govt was supposed to be FOR THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE......and we don't wage wars without Congressional debate and consent........we need change and we need it now..... FAILED POLICIES should not go rewarded...
Duratek
Government would be FORCED to get smaller, tax less....spend less. NO LOBBY GROUPS allowed to create special interests.....or people who can be bought off.
NO DIVIDEND TAX BREAKS which let the UBER RICH (who have millions of shares) keep more money and the AVG dude could care less, they don't own enough stocks for this to matter...
LOWER TAXES AND DUES TOO ALL WORKING PEOPLE.....not the already disgusting filthy insiders who like a GE pay no taxes........FREE HEALTH CARE TO ALL US CITIZENS paid for by increased taxes on the UBER WEALTHY and LESS GOVT spending on WARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The current sysetms in place in our world in particular will not last many years down the road....as a majority of citizens get tried of being hosed and sold out and SADDLED WITH THE INSIDERS BAD DEBTS for generations to come as they WAX RICH at OUR EXPENSE!
UBER WEALTHY PEOPLE (yes I am Republican) should be taxed out the ass....so maybe they only have 2 10,000 sq ft mansions.......MORE GOES BACK TO THE WORKING STIFF people......in the form of LOWER TAXES for ALL making under $500,000 a year......but for those making 10's of millions.......you can afford to and should pay much more than current, that can ONLY be done with a FLAT TAX....period.......the REAL consumers of the world paying less in taxes and getting FREE HEALTH CARE (as do Canadians) will be freed up to buy all the unsold homes, buy durable goods......revitalize the economy...let the PEOPLE CHOOSE WHERE THE MONEY GOES.....and do away with all the STUPID SUBSIDIES....if something can't stand on it's own then it shouldn't be....like ETHANOL for instance....how stupid is that?
When you have a system that outsizes returns for a VERY FEW (dont lecture me on the 1% pay 90%.....) and the life they lead so doesn't look like the avg persons........the system needs an overhaul.
COMPANIES taxes should not be raised EXCEPT companies like GE who are allowed to shelter profits OVERSEAS....and nothing is done...wonder why Obama is so buddy up with Immelt?
FED RESERVE SYSTEM ABOLISHED....let rates be born of a FREE MARKET SYSTEM...the FED'S manipulating has gotten us booms, but they always are followed by bigger and BIGGER BUSTS!!!! and has cost the US $ 40% of its value since 2000.
A SYSTEM that SCREWS SAVERS.....and ONLY REWARDS RISK TAKERS.
BANKSTERS BAD DEBTS GET FOISTED ON THE PUBLIC (BANK BAILOUTS, FREDDIE MAC ETC) ??? nobody asked us........ or maybe they did, we said no, they did it anyways.
LAST time I looked, the worst financial crimes in history, the worst crisis is followed by ZERO PROSECUTIONS???
Last time I looked the housing market is at worst levels ever, savers get 0%, few jobs, food and energy are through the roof (but fed will say "inflation contained") but the stock market soars.....and that's where the 1% are saying THANK YOU!!
STOCK MARKET GAINS VS real policy and in the meantime the HOUSING MARKET HAS RECORDED ITS WORST DATA in the 50 years since it began tabulating....so there's progress.....well this is just a beginning point for discussion...last time I looked our govt was supposed to be FOR THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE......and we don't wage wars without Congressional debate and consent........we need change and we need it now..... FAILED POLICIES should not go rewarded...
Duratek
FINAL AM THOUGHT
The current rally off the recent lows has lacked typical sustainable rally moves and IMHO unless its characteristics change showing more buyer enthusiasm and breadth....is destined to fail.
WHAT after all the "good" news recently will provide buyers more a reason to STEP IT UP? or WHAT would give reason for buyers to come in strong enough to break out above the 1325 and above levels?
Pray for QE3 like QE1 and QE2 have proven effective for the economy...for stocks....we know answer it's been the saviour from going back to the bear market....even I can appreciate that wisdom...
D
WHAT after all the "good" news recently will provide buyers more a reason to STEP IT UP? or WHAT would give reason for buyers to come in strong enough to break out above the 1325 and above levels?
Pray for QE3 like QE1 and QE2 have proven effective for the economy...for stocks....we know answer it's been the saviour from going back to the bear market....even I can appreciate that wisdom...
D
BEYOND INSANITY
UP UP AND AWAY this measure of money supply has NEVER BEFORE in HISTORY seen this kind of move.....BEYOND INSANITY.....this was FIAT that never existed before this....where will it end? THE REAL insanity is the horse is not drinking.....
Read what you want, believe what you want, the stock market IS NOT the economy nor does it reflect the economy, if it did, it would be half its current price level, IMHO.
In the 50 years it has kept track of housing data, new home sales NEVER released data poorer than this weeks report and this is after 2 PLUS years of 0% ZIRP....all the incentives......2 PLUS years of supposed recovery.......you would expect SLOW CONSTANT rise in this data not a FALL TO NEW LOWS!!!
What then interests the stock market? there are ALL kinds of companies in it, so we know commodity based and energy based companies are flying. We know most banks mistate earnings because of suspension of mark to market accounting, because home values continue to drop....we know we have RECORD amount of Americans on gov't assistance.....there are many troubling signs.....as CORE INFLATION really heats up.....
We know the unemployment data is cooked and does not reflect the actual situation....there is little real hiring going on...without HOUSING contributing to economy....we already see DURABLE GOODS peaking and now declining and there are a lot less people buying homes and and all that conncected action of things you would purchase, people you would hire is just not there....so YOU tell me....what IS driving this economy?
IN A WORD IT IS THE FED and CB policy around the world....except some have begun to tighten.....some talk of cutting back.....that leaves the US CB'ers, our FED to goose the world economy...and in some SICK deveiant reaction the world is counting on QE3 and beyind like it will never end and this is a good thing, that theses FED policies lead to recovery and prosperity.
"Spend Our Way To Prosperity"
" In his State of the Union Address, President Obama spoke briefly about cutting the deficit but gave far more attention to ambitious new spending programs to revive the economy. He still hasn’t accepted a common sense notion most Americans understand: you can’t borrow and spend your way to prosperity. Even if deficits were reduced, every new dollar of government expenditure takes money for the public sector out of the private, for-profit economy. Spending for roads, bridges and other useful infrastructure--let alone "investment" in scams like high speed rail and solar power-- still means increased burdens on taxpayers and less money for business to expand and to create long-term jobs. The key question before the country is whether to continue growing government and imposing new burdens on the private economy, or reducing the cost of government and giving business the chance to breathe and grow."
This morning we get another GDP revision, but it really doesn't matter.....blowing BUBBLES is our main policy and until we demand different that's what it will be be....we will go from BOOM to BUST.....this time the BOOM is only felt by those involved in stocks......mainly the insiders.........majority of people have their lives invested in their HOMES, not in stocks......and I have proven how little effectiveness current policies have proven to improve that situation...in the meantime current policies are proving VERY DESTRUCTIVE and especially to those looking for interest income....NEVER A GOOD IDEA to have a unbalanced economy....
Investment in gold and energy has proven a wise strategy for now.....
Duratek
Read what you want, believe what you want, the stock market IS NOT the economy nor does it reflect the economy, if it did, it would be half its current price level, IMHO.
In the 50 years it has kept track of housing data, new home sales NEVER released data poorer than this weeks report and this is after 2 PLUS years of 0% ZIRP....all the incentives......2 PLUS years of supposed recovery.......you would expect SLOW CONSTANT rise in this data not a FALL TO NEW LOWS!!!
What then interests the stock market? there are ALL kinds of companies in it, so we know commodity based and energy based companies are flying. We know most banks mistate earnings because of suspension of mark to market accounting, because home values continue to drop....we know we have RECORD amount of Americans on gov't assistance.....there are many troubling signs.....as CORE INFLATION really heats up.....
We know the unemployment data is cooked and does not reflect the actual situation....there is little real hiring going on...without HOUSING contributing to economy....we already see DURABLE GOODS peaking and now declining and there are a lot less people buying homes and and all that conncected action of things you would purchase, people you would hire is just not there....so YOU tell me....what IS driving this economy?
IN A WORD IT IS THE FED and CB policy around the world....except some have begun to tighten.....some talk of cutting back.....that leaves the US CB'ers, our FED to goose the world economy...and in some SICK deveiant reaction the world is counting on QE3 and beyind like it will never end and this is a good thing, that theses FED policies lead to recovery and prosperity.
"Spend Our Way To Prosperity"
" In his State of the Union Address, President Obama spoke briefly about cutting the deficit but gave far more attention to ambitious new spending programs to revive the economy. He still hasn’t accepted a common sense notion most Americans understand: you can’t borrow and spend your way to prosperity. Even if deficits were reduced, every new dollar of government expenditure takes money for the public sector out of the private, for-profit economy. Spending for roads, bridges and other useful infrastructure--let alone "investment" in scams like high speed rail and solar power-- still means increased burdens on taxpayers and less money for business to expand and to create long-term jobs. The key question before the country is whether to continue growing government and imposing new burdens on the private economy, or reducing the cost of government and giving business the chance to breathe and grow."
This morning we get another GDP revision, but it really doesn't matter.....blowing BUBBLES is our main policy and until we demand different that's what it will be be....we will go from BOOM to BUST.....this time the BOOM is only felt by those involved in stocks......mainly the insiders.........majority of people have their lives invested in their HOMES, not in stocks......and I have proven how little effectiveness current policies have proven to improve that situation...in the meantime current policies are proving VERY DESTRUCTIVE and especially to those looking for interest income....NEVER A GOOD IDEA to have a unbalanced economy....
Investment in gold and energy has proven a wise strategy for now.....
Duratek
Thursday, March 24, 2011
IT'S OVER !!
looking at this chart WHAT HAPPENS after durables PEAK and begin to decline? (especially after touching the 20% line) THEY GOURGED THE RECOVERY into a compact time frame...and it looks like its over. A drop below 0% would seal it for sure IMHO....but then we have the mkt TA as well...add in housing chart of worst data in the FIFTY YEARS since they began tabulating it......the banks want to pay dividends????? with what??????
Home values keep dropping, what does that do to underlying value of all those mortgages held???????????????????????? but they don't have to mark them to market value do they???
That is why I say SPX earnings is a doggone SHAM, BS...make believe, a lie....misleading....a FRAUD....how do you change how some companies report profit and loss in midstream?....so you can mislead people.
We don't even have a wall of worry here, we're trying to climb over a TSUNAMI..... DO YOU believe companies are now hiring? DO YOU believe we have inflation under control?
The rally has gotten so narrow, so few participating, that on a major UP day like yesterday 53% of the volume was selling!
*foreclosure vote could rock thebanks**
"The big banks face fresh scrutiny of their handling of the mortgage mess – from their own boards, no less.
Shareholders at Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) could vote this spring to compel their audit committees to investigate the banks' mortgage and foreclosure practices, and report back by fall.
The votes will come despite much eye-rolling from the banks, which have tended to be less than forthcoming on the subject. Bank of America and Citi petitioned regulators to keep shareholders from voting on the proposal, which is sponsored by the New York City pension funds led by city comptroller John C. Liu. But the Securities and Exchange Commission ruled this month that the votes must go on."
Duratek
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
But yesterdays gains came with down volume 53% of total up and down volume...........more signs of continued manipualtion so everythng appears OK when it really isn't.
WHY should the market care or react to news that Housing data fell to its lowest level EVER in the 50 YEARS since data was compiled...yeah BULLY!
D
WHY should the market care or react to news that Housing data fell to its lowest level EVER in the 50 YEARS since data was compiled...yeah BULLY!
D
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
CREE LONG TERM BUY HOLDERS TO WOODSHED
IS it ever a good idea to hold a big position in ONE COMPANY? Lost half it's value.....this is a BIG SEMI PLAYER....I find this troubling.......for me LTBH has LONG since gone out the window....
DO you have OIL and metals in your protfolio? any physical gold and silver?
D
MARKET ACTION USING "SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE"
Is THIS a back test of broken dashed trend line? GOLDS BUSTING to new highs, OIL is above $105....the insanity of it all.....FED members saying "end of line to QE come June....." QE has been ONLY prop for this prop job bull market....
D
IS COPPER ROLLING OVER? *(see below updated housing data)
Also of interest to me is factthat NEMONT mining, one of most widely held miners is chart wise in BEAR MARKET and the HUI made its high MONTHS ago in 2010........with gold near all time highs and FEARS of inflation.....
D
CREE (SEMI CO.) IN FREEFALL
"shares of LED maker Cree (CREE) are down $2.96, or 6%, at $46.04 in early trading after the company cut its fiscal Q3 revenue forecast on weaker-than-expected demand and weaker-than-expected pricing.
The warning comes two months after Cree reported Q2 results that missed its own projections because of an inventory correction in Asia. "
The warning comes two months after Cree reported Q2 results that missed its own projections because of an inventory correction in Asia. "
**watch $45.48 reaction lows
Duratek (semi's rolling over)
SECULAR CHANGES: STILL AN AMERICAN DREAM?
WHY I'LL NEVER BUY A HOME tech ticker
Secular changes towards DEBT? SECULAR changes towards STOCKS? SECULAR changes towards savings? FED? GOVT? ENERGY?
D
Secular changes towards DEBT? SECULAR changes towards STOCKS? SECULAR changes towards savings? FED? GOVT? ENERGY?
D
NEW HOME SALES
**UPDATED AM DATA New-Home Sales Plunged in February to Record Low- AP
Sales of new U.S. homes plunged in February to the fewest on records dating back nearly half a century, a dismal sign for an already-weak housing market.
LET me preview the 10 AM data due out today, after peakng in 2005
(stocks in 2007..YES a warning then!) we went from 1.4 MILLION per year to UDER 240,000 PLEASE let that sink in and the effect that IS having on our economy......we are having such a raucus recovery that we have RECORD unmbers on govt assistance...IMHO stocks are NOT done correcting
More uplifting news:
"The problem stems from the massive increase in jobless claims during the Great Recession. The surge drained state unemployment trust funds, forcing states to borrow from a federal fund to cover their 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Some 32 states now owe $45.7 billion to the fund, and could have to pay about $1.4 billion in interest this year. The burden will fall mainly on businesses, which will have to pay more in unemployment taxes." (cnn.com)
D
Sales of new U.S. homes plunged in February to the fewest on records dating back nearly half a century, a dismal sign for an already-weak housing market.
LET me preview the 10 AM data due out today, after peakng in 2005(stocks in 2007..YES a warning then!) we went from 1.4 MILLION per year to UDER 240,000 PLEASE let that sink in and the effect that IS having on our economy......we are having such a raucus recovery that we have RECORD unmbers on govt assistance...IMHO stocks are NOT done correcting
More uplifting news:
"The problem stems from the massive increase in jobless claims during the Great Recession. The surge drained state unemployment trust funds, forcing states to borrow from a federal fund to cover their 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Some 32 states now owe $45.7 billion to the fund, and could have to pay about $1.4 billion in interest this year. The burden will fall mainly on businesses, which will have to pay more in unemployment taxes." (cnn.com)
D
SOLD OUT AGAIN...NO GOVT OPTION, ONE TERM!!
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A year after the passing of health reform, a new industry report revealed that consumers may be paying billions of dollars more in out-of-pocket health care expenses than was previously thought.
These "hidden" costs of health care -- like taking time off to care for elderly parents -- add up to $363 billion, according to a report from the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a research group.
6Email Print That amounts to $1,355 per consumer, on top of the $8,000 the government says people spend on doctor fees and hospital care.
"We're surprised that this number came in so high. It's significant," said Paul Keckley, executive director with the group.
These "hidden" costs of health care -- like taking time off to care for elderly parents -- add up to $363 billion, according to a report from the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a research group.
6Email Print That amounts to $1,355 per consumer, on top of the $8,000 the government says people spend on doctor fees and hospital care.
"We're surprised that this number came in so high. It's significant," said Paul Keckley, executive director with the group.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
FED IS DONE IN JUNE?
AKRON, Ohio/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The U.S. recovery is gaining traction, two top Federal Reserve officials said on Tuesday, though they differed on the risks of inflation in the U.S. economy.
Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said she expects the U.S. recovery to continue at a moderate pace, with rising commodity and energy prices only temporarily putting pressure on broader consumer prices.
"The recovery seems to have established a firmer footing. I am seeing clearer signs of a virtuous cycle of growth," Pianalto said in a speech at the University of Akron.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, speaking in Frankfurt, Germany, said the U.S. recovery was gathering momentum and needs no further Fed support.
"The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more. In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June," Fisher said.
If we were doing so bleeping good why are rates at ZERO STILL? DO THEY EVER MENTION THE DATA IN THE HOUSING MARKET?
D
Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said she expects the U.S. recovery to continue at a moderate pace, with rising commodity and energy prices only temporarily putting pressure on broader consumer prices.
"The recovery seems to have established a firmer footing. I am seeing clearer signs of a virtuous cycle of growth," Pianalto said in a speech at the University of Akron.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, speaking in Frankfurt, Germany, said the U.S. recovery was gathering momentum and needs no further Fed support.
"The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more. In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June," Fisher said.
If we were doing so bleeping good why are rates at ZERO STILL? DO THEY EVER MENTION THE DATA IN THE HOUSING MARKET?
D
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