HOUSING RECOVERY DO YOU SEE IT?

While it's great AAPL is selling tons of gadgets, we sit at the FORK TONGUE in road where we might be damned if we do, and damned if we don't!

While raising the ceiling on what our government can borrow will lift most boats, in particular stock prices, it does little for economy and the worst hit small business, avg American, and housing.

LOOK closely at what they say they will cut, there are no real MEAT here in govt spending, it will be mostly BS accounting or chops at the little guy.....or some mysterious formula or outlay. BILLIONS will continue to be wasted, BILLIONS of spending kept OFF the official books....and the deficit will then continue to rise by $TRILLION PLUS into the near future.

How do you do, when you max all your credit cards out? Well OK you don't but if you did, you would be out of luck and you pay 20% interest. Our GOVT is not out of luck and is paying below 3% !!!

WHY below 3%, because the Federal reserve OWNS the majority of new debt issued by the US GOVT! and that cannot continue into perpetuity. ALL THE US can hope to pay is the INTEREST on the debt, NEVER the principal...they can never own their house.

ANY large increase in rates would be deadly, 20% of our economy are government transfer payments to the unemployed. We still have 9.2% (much worse actually) unemployment 3 years into recovery, so why is the stock market up over 80% from lows? because that is where the money flows..INSTEAD of where it can do some real good and help to create jobs.

That tells me, YES the market can continue to go higher, yes APPLE can sell for $1,000 a share.....but the market is the beneficiary of near lowest rates on record, people are forced into the risk to get returns. SAVERS are hosed don daily basis, AKA retirees.

THIS is an unabalnaced and overleradged situation that will come to end. The next BUBBLE may be gov't debt and the bond market. OTHER countries cannot refinance their debt as the FREE MKT system works to raise rates sky high....so they bail outs...unending bailouts.

In the US, we have the RESERVE currency, so we can print, and print and print, and the FED can manipulate rates well below where a FREE MKT would have them.

Supply and demand...not working here. and that sets up an horrible accident down the road and it will start in the stock market and catch most completely stupified when the game of musical chairs ends

D

CLOSE UP OF BREAKOUT

This was a low risk high reward setup.

D

Update On Bull Flag Call

That was pretty good. Now if it holds 1320 could go much higher as you see candle breaking out of the flag formation.

Why keep rehashng the news? It's the action that counts for now. AAPL blow out numbers surprised? you have to be an idiot to short that stock now! Or goog...or whatever.

Euphoria over ceiling of DEBT being raised...yahoooooo, but not YHOO (earnings sucked)....if you are out there as I am, working hard to scrape a living, find business...my hat is off to you.

The reality is there is business, you don't dispair because if you do, all is lost. Just get up each day, be ready to fight for business and let your customers or potential ones know how much their business would mean to you! and good luck.

The stock market is a playground for the insiders, everyone else will get hosed

D

POSSIBLE BULL FLAG FORMING

Ceiling rabbit will be pulled out, even if just more smoke.

D

NOTHING NEW

BEAR ROAST! Low of day was 1295-6 and that was .618 FIB of move. Friends, the computers will win everytime, most traders will lose.

The debt ceiling talk....that chaos is a joke, it's a setup to pull off a "last minute deal" but friends, is it a VICTORY just because we get to continue borrowing against $14.5 TRILLION already? When you MAX your credit you are maxxed...not Sovereign govts that can print.

ANyway.....the market may be setup to see what overhead resistance it can take out. This IS a Bull market, but one that has left OUT most of the people

DOW THEORY NON CONFIRMATION

At recent Transport highs ( ALL TIME HIGHS!) the SPX index was not even at new high for the rally. Since then both have been steadily falling. New worries about European debt and the US debt ceiling.

Some kind of "save" is expected, with a last minute DEAL. That may prove even if it comes to be temporary. 9.2% unemployment says more than any debt deal, things could certainly unravel quickly if the smoke clears and enough people are watching.

D

BDI GLOBAL RECOVERY

THOSE CHASING LNKD, ETC HERE'S A HISTORY LESSON

SHARED SACRIFICE

The President is urging a debt deal that "shares the sacrifice", but as the 2009 housing crisis was at its height, avg Americans were sold out in favor of the big banks. And when it came time for stimulus, $800B was used and still another 1.4 million jobs were lost.

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10554  Doug Noland Credit Bubble Report  on the Sovereign Debt Crisis

We are staring the abys right in the face. The Gov't uses funding costs of 2.5% for its projections! The market could force rates higher if it sniffs a default. Current 10 year yields are under 3%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-11/german-10-year-bond-yields-approach-two-week-low-amid-italy-debt-concerns.html

Italian 10 year rates 13.38%. Portugal 10.71%. Greece 17.02%     Irish 2 year yields soared to 18%


In this country 2 year yields are at 0.37% YES 0.37%. The low on record is 0.34% !! The low at height of crisis in 2009 was? 0.74% !!!!!!!!!  we are 50% below that.....what does that tell you?

Duratek

BANK OF AMERICA IS WHITHERING

THIS WEEK

"Congress Votes: House Republicans plan to vote on a proposal to raise the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion and cut federal spending by the same amount. Separately, the House and Senate are expected to vote on an amendment to the Constitution that would require the president to submit a balanced budget each year."

Raise the debt by same you will cut spending (OVER TEN YEARS!!!!) both parties are a joke and a half. Get ready for th eBIG rally, because we are saved....

D

Petr Schiff " Don't Be Fooled By Political Posturing"

"The debt problem does not stem from low taxes, but from high spending. I do not expect a deal to lift the debt limit will make any meaningful impact on either. Unfortunately both taxes and spending are likely to head higher in the years ahead. Americans should prepare for the sad reality."
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/guestcommentaryview?art_id=10553

RUNNING ON EMPTY

$800B stimulus in 2009 yet 1.4 million more out of work since then. "We need more public works, roads, bridges....."

0% FED rate, lowest mortgage rates in history.....housing still mired near the worst it ever was.

Commercial office and retail space stands vacant wherever you look blighting the landscape.

ALmost 3 years into recovery, but 9.2 OFFICIAL unemployment rate. This goes on record as weakest recovery from recession.

The gov't needs to rein in spending but too much will stall the economy addicted to gov't spending in this fragile "recovery".

Raise taxes, cut spending....solve problems? "We're not Greece"  we have RESERVE CURRENCY and with FED buying majority of bonds gorging their balance sheets to $2.7 trillion....we have printed and smoked ourselves to a low 2.9% 10 year yield for borrowing....surely with deficits out of control for as far as eye can see.........there will be no end to LOW RATES.....

But if for some reason there was a sustained rise in rates, even a little....all could implode.

We are lving in dangerous times, with NO easy answers and a way out without pain. ANY escape here Houdini would be proud.

Rock N Hard place have arrived.

Duratek

CURRENT SPX TRENDING

The MACD has flattened and with late day rally could be set to test 1330 area.

With all the noise, and posturing by the parties about the debt ceiling, you cannot trade off the news.

It'st he kind of market that takes money from bull and bear day traders.

S&P THREATENS DOWNGRADES OF THE FINANCIALS

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-threatens-broad-downgrade-rb-1761317270.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Standard & Poor's on Friday raised the pressure on Washington debt negotiators, saying it could downgrade insurers, securities clearinghouses, mortgage agencies and a laundry list of other firms if there is not a deal soon to lift the debt ceiling and cut the deficit.
While S&P had already made clear it could downgrade the United States's sovereign credit rating, the move Friday struck directly at the heart of the financial system, raising the prospect of knock-on effects should the country exhaust its ability to borrow to pay bills.
The Treasury took the last available step Friday to try and extend that borrowing capacity.
The ratings agency on Friday put on negative credit watch a range of powerful financial firms, many of them little known to the public but crucial to the nation's financial infrastructure. government securities are central to the operations of most of the companies cited.
They include the Depository Trust Co, which facilitates payment transfers among major banks, as well as several Federal Home Loan Banks and Farm Credit System Banks. They also singled out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the two agencies central to the U.S. residential mortgage market.
S&P characterized its targets as "entities with direct links to, or reliance on, the federal government."
Separately, the agency said the four remaining U.S. nonfinancial companies with "AAA" ratings were not affected by the downgrade threat."

ALU. ONE STOCK TO WATCH

GARY SHILLING SEES 2012 RECESSION

THE ROCK HAS ARRIVED AT THE HARD PLACE

Bernanke: Deep Spending Cuts Could Derail Recovery- Reuters
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress on Thursday that overzealous cuts to government spending could derail an already fragile recovery and said a U.S. debt default could wreak financial havoc.

IS THE MARKET ACTION BULLISH OR BEARISH?

When you look at market this way the market has been trading sideways in a range since March, and that's how traders are tresting it.

Bernanke: Fed would supply more stimulus if needed

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Fed-would-supply-apf-1990658503.html?x=0&.v=7

And how's that QE 1 and 2 working for you? It's all about stocks, and it would seem to work forever. The FED is now the LARGEST holder of US Treasuries, why not print and buy some more?
Savers can now grab BOTH ankles, metals on fire, US $ took a dive no surprise

"The Fed has kept its key interest rate at a record low near zero since December 2008. Most private economists believe the Fed will not start raising interest rates until next summer. And some say the Fed won't increase rates until 2013, based on the slumping economy.
Bernanke was testifying after the government released a dismal jobs report last week.
The economy added just 18,000 jobs last month, the fewest in nine months. And the May figures were revised downward to show just 25,000 jobs added -- fewer than half of what was initially reported. The unemployment rose to 9.2 percent, the highest rate this year.
Companies pulled back sharply on hiring after adding an average of 215,000 jobs per month from February through April. The economy typically needs to add 125,000 jobs per month just to keep up wiht population growth. And at least twice that many jobs are needed to bring down the unemployment rate."

THIS POLICY HAS BEEN 100% INEFECTIVE IN ROUSING THE ECONOMY....so let's do it some more

D

HARPEX CHART FOR SHIPPING TONNAGE

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&dataType=Harpex&floatLeft=None&floatRight=None

Choose 5 year chart (unable to imbed), it shows index is rolling over and does closely resemble the stock market action since 2007. This is just a warning, but it's adding up.

What's going to happen? When the market DOES roll over for good, the avg Joe will hold all the way down, NO advisor will warn of trouble, in disgust many will sell near the lows.....where the insiders will be buying. From FEAR to GREED and back again, this scenario will always play out the same way.

STAY with me, I might be able to help you BREAK the lemming syndrome.

Duratek

REFLATION PRIZE WINNER LOOKING PUNK

I am in negotiations to develop a subscriber based web page, this would allow me to do MUCH more, and spend more of my time helping my subscribers, offering even more.

In life you have to follow your dreams, my wish is to write about the markets and keep my subscribers on the RIGHT side of the market and this I KNOW I can do.

More info when available, I would NOT abandon my blog, it would be less frequent for sure

Duratek

STIMULUS 4.0??

FORTUNE -- With all the talk of debt ceilings and federal spending cuts, you might think that the era of stimulus programs was behind us. Think again. I strongly suspect that by the end of the summer both parties will be putting together yet another tax and spending bill designed to get the economy going. Call it Stimulus 4.0.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/07/13/forget-deficit-reduction-here-comes-another-stimulus-package/?iid=HP_LN

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While China's economic growth remains far faster than that of Western nations, it eased slightly for the second quarter in a row.
China's economy grew at an annual pace of 9.5% between April and June, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. That marks a slight slowdown from the first quarter, when GDP grew 9.7% year-over-year.

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• Print
• Comment

Overall, China's economy has cooled significantly since the first quarter of 2010 when it was barreling along at an 11.9%

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/12/news/international/china_gdp/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

THE RANGE

THOSE THAT GOT US INTO THIS MESS ARE A MESS

SPX 1310-1316 support under assault, mkt better rally tomorrow.

NFIB INDEX SIGNALS RECESSIONARY WARNINGS

"As politicians love to point out, small businesses create the majority of new jobs in the United States. So it's yet another bad sign for the economy that the people who run them are feeling even gloomier than ever about the economy right now.

An index of small-business optimism run by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), a trade group for small businesses, fell again last month, and is "solidly in recession territory," according to the group.
The index fell dropped by 0.1 and now stands at 90.8."
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/small-biz-confidence-solidly-recession-territory-135118709.html

Duratek

LTBH LOST DECADE

"Was the recession a good thing?"

NEW YORK (CNN) --" The Great Recession had many lasting negative effects -- high unemployment, falling home prices, stunted growth -- just to name a few. But the news isn't all bad.The majority of Americans feel that the past few years provided a much-needed financial wake-up call, a new study shows.

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• Print

Eight out of ten people surveyed say they now exercise more caution with their finances and "learned important lessons regarding savings, investing, and preparing for retirement," according to a joint study released Tuesday by AgeWave and SunAmerica Financial Group.

"In a very interesting way, [the recession] jolted the American public to think more seriously about their future and forced them to course-correct their savings and debt approach," said Ken Dychtwald"
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/12/pf/recession_saving_habits/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

Thanks for nothing???
D

RECORD GOVT SUBSIDIES BUOY ECONOMY

"An extraordinary amount of personal income is coming directly from the government.
Close to $2 of every $10 that went into Americans’ wallets last year were payments like jobless benefits, food stamps, Social Security and disability, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. In states hit hard by the downturn, like Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Ohio, residents derived even more of their income from the government.
By the end of this year, however, many of those dollars are going to disappear, with the expiration of extended benefits intended to help people cope with the lingering effects of the recession. Moody’s Analytics estimates $37 billion will be drained from the nation’s pocketbooks this year.
In terms of economic impact, that is slightly less than the spending cuts Congress enacted to keep the government financed through September, averting a shutdown.
Unless hiring picks up sharply to compensate, economists fear that the lost income will further crimp consumer spending and act as a drag on a recovery that is still quite fragile. Among the other supports that are slipping away are federal aid to the states, the Federal Reserve’s program to pump money into the economy and the payroll tax cut, scheduled to expire at the end of the year.
“If we don’t get more job growth and gains in wages and salaries, then consumers just aren’t going to have the firepower to spend, and the economy is going to weaken,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, a macroeconomic consulting firm.

STOCK MARKETS SELL OFF IN A 90% DOWN VOLUME DAY

Near term support may be here, any rally will probably just seperate next leg down IMHO unless a debt deal reached rescues market...

1332 above should be resistance and 1342 above that. 1294-1296 important support, 1300 comes first.

IGNORE NEWS, we will watch the tape.....

D

WHY THE SOUR PUSS? OBAMA RATCHETS UP RHETORIC

"President Obama challenged Republicans to deliver on their rhetoric about the nation's debt and deficit problems, insisting that "now is the time to deal with these issues."

"In a White House news conference just hours before he's set to meet again with congressional leaders on the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, Obama warned that if Republicans failed to compromise on a solution, it could further depress the nation's already struggling economy and "throw millions of more people out of work."

WHY SMALL BUSINESS ISN'T HIRING...AND MAY NOT

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly11/why-smallbiz-not-hiring-6-11.html

TRADING RANGE

DUALING REALITIES. RED OPEN FOR MARKETS, DEBT is 4 letter word.

And why? Euro debt issues? WHAT?????? Last week we rallied like all get out because of all new GREEK? ad nauseum now that same news has gone SOUR????

Here at home as I suggested all the talk about "raising the debt ceiling" was just that. And any cuts would hurt the economy and spending, and do little to change the trend os adding to themassive deficits that continue to build, that HAVE to be funded from massive US TREASURY ISSUANCE.

Now ask yourself, at $14.5 TRILLION and counting, how much MORE debt issuance will it take to cast some question on US DEBT and the fact the yield is a scant 3% over a 10 year period? With world inflation an issue? 3% yield for 10 years is in the direction over DEFLATION worries, not INFLATION, what nube would accpet 3% for 10 years with inflation lurking, or even present we could argue?

BUT SO MANY are crammed in there, and there is so much MORE coming that needs to be bought.....with all the Euro funds needed to keep plugging those holes, where is the money going to come from to buy US DEBT?

Hasn't the major buyer been the FED itself? Hasn't the FED said they won't continue after this month with QE? And the yield for 10 years is what? 3%???!!!

Duratek   where's there is SMOKE there is FIRE! market can go higher, might even.....(not today probably) but IMHO what you see is just MOMO based buying, buying cause it is going higher, the fundamentals underenathe is all are crumbling.

TROUBLE AHEAD FOR NFLX?

"Fast forward to 2011, and online movies and TV couldn't be hotter. Google, Amazon, Hulu and others have jumped into the fray -- putting studios in the power position. They want to be paid more for the content they're providing.

That spells trouble for Netflix's streaming content costs.

"Netflix has another year or two on most of these contracts, and then the game completely changes," says Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush Securities."

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/08/technology/netflix_starz_contract/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

MOST of their NEW subscribers go for the streaming $8 a month service, THAT can easily be competed against unlike distribution network for mailing movies. 

2 things missing from streaming? BLUE RAY QUALITY, NEW RELEASES....once that is fixed.....game over, imho

Duratek

MY LOYAL COMPANION

MY LOYAL COMPANION

SOFT FUR LIKE COTTON BALLS

SHINING EYES GLISTENING LIKE GLASS

FRIENDLY SMILE NEVER BEARING TEETH
GENTLE CREATURE WAS MY FRIEND

TIME HAS SLIPPED BY OUR GRASP
SO SWIFT LIKE A STORMY BREEZE

CARESSING OUR SKIN, PALE COLOR
THE FACE OF WHAT IS TO COME

PAWS OF SILK, SKIN SO TENDER

GENTLE CREATURE WAS MY FRIEND

IT WOULD SEEM TO LAST FOREVER
BUT THAT CANNOT BE

WE RENT OUR DREAMS
PAYMENT WILL COME DUE

WAGGING TAIL ALWAYS FOR ME
GENTLE CREATURE WAS MY FRIEND

SUDDEN TAKING OF TODAY’S DREAMS
LEAVING NO HOPE FOR TOMORROW

AN END MUST COME
FROM EVERY BEGINNING

I WILL MISS YOUR SOFT FUR, AND LIMITLESS LOVE
GENTLE CREATURE WAS MY FRIEND

Poem by M Rosen

SPENDING CUTS WILL HURT ECONOMY

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/business/economy/12econ.html April 2011

"The proposed federal spending cuts, which were decided late Friday, do not amount to much by themselves, about 0.25 percent of annual domestic activity. But they join a growing list of minor problems impeding growth, economists said, including higher fuel prices and bad weather, Europe’s creeping malaise and the effect of the Japanese earthquake.
The impact of those problems, combined with growing cuts in spending by federal, state and local governments, has led some experts who had forecast that the economy would expand by more than 4 percent in 2011 to retreat toward a 3 percent growth rate. And it raises the question of how many more small cuts the president can afford.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, a Chicago investment firm, said she had cut her forecast for 2011 to 3.3 percent, from 4.2 percent. And if growth falls below 3 percent, she said, “You’re just running on a treadmill. You’re not getting anywhere.”

Recent employment numbers show the economy is not going anywhere, commercial property for lease abounds in empty spaces, where are the new businesses? CHEAP money is not attracting those who might borrow, so the FED policies are like "pulling on a string".

Numbers as to the SIZE of proposed cuts in govt spending have been anywhere from $1 trillion to as much as $4 Trilion over 10 years. ANY CUTS come right out of economy, many companies opening offices in DC just to be close to all that spending potential.

Of course the argument is the Govt is inefficient in their spending, and it takes away from small business development almost dormant like the 7 year locust.

jan 2011
"Moving aggressively to make good on election promises to slash the federal budget, the House GOP today unveiled an eye-popping plan to eliminate $2.5 trillion in spending over the next 10 years. Gone would be Amtrak subsidies, fat checks to the Legal Services Corporation and National Endowment for the Arts, and some $900 million to run President Obama's healthcare reform program."

A SHOWDOWN is coming, even if some agreement is made BEFORE THE DEBT CEILING DEBT LINE, a reduction in spending will hurt economy, and the savings will not make muxh difference with $1T-$1.5T deficits each year for what seems eternity.

How much better would YOU feel if instead of owing $100,000 to a bank you owed $150,000? well at least they didn;t cut you off at $100,000. The govt will just PRINT the difference...and keep printing..leaving you and I to pass the SHORT STICK to each other.

D

MORE COMMENTS ON POSSIBLE MEGAPHONE TOPPING PATTERN

 I spotted this pattern on my monthly chart. ALL too often traders disregard Monthly or longer term trends. I could not find another period where a RECESSION (BEAR MKT) low as was case in 2002/3 was cleared by the next Recession LOW (BEAR BOTTOM) certainly not on this chart back to 1982. There were NO divergences at the lower low bottom, this leads me to believe we are STILL in a Secular Bear market, however enjoying the rally from CYCLICAL BULL. A higher high is certainly possible, but from here on out it would be a GOOD INVESTMENT idea not to fall asleep.

The "easy" money has been made, business cycle has peaked, ECRI index (well respected) predicts 2nd half weakness, NOT sustainable economy as almost every economist and CNBC guest predicts and implies. There is NO proof of much more than the stock mkt is about only game in town for returns as FED fixes rates at 0%.

Corporation are now MORE indebted than 5 years ago! how? Borrowing money to buy STOCK to make earnings appear better, NOT used to grow or expand business or hire new employees. We are experiencing the weakest stats from any Recessionary bottom, and at some point the musical chairs will stop. 2009 was a GREAT buying opp, there really isn't much sign of sellers picking up their game, as Lowry's stats point out. So, the trend is up until it isn't, when it isn't might be the selling opp of the decade.

Cheap 2012 puts may be in order. HF and program trading now mass majority of shares traded...IMHO the voting mech of mkt is broken and even so, the mkt is at best short term indicator

THARP TRADER TEST

http://www.tharptradertest.com/about.aspx  Interesting test, may be informative to you.

Duratek....

DEBT CEILING TALK

http://news.yahoo.com/debt-ceiling-why-sunday-could-break-day-grand-130337893.html

CLOSEUP OF POTENTIAL BROADENING TOP PATTERN

A TRAP OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS WOULD BE SET if stocks rallied to new all time highs (Transports already have) in the face of weakest recovery from recession onrecord...BEARS WOULD BE KILLED, MOST BULLS TRAPPED at the apex down she goes maybe to NEW LOWS

RICHARD RUSSELL "THE VALUES AREN'T THAT GOOD"

5 July 2011 by Cullen Roche

http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-the-1-reason-to-be-underweight-equities

"Richard Russell’s latest letter is something that most investors can probably empathize with to some degree. While it’s clear that the equity markets are in the midst of a bull market, it’s less clear whether now is still a good time to be buying. Russell, while acknowledging that this is certainly a bull market, prefers not to be overweight equities for one single reason – the values just aren’t that good"

ECRI CHIEF

WAS RECENT HIGH A THROW OVER?

GOV'T DEBT WAS $6 TRILLION IN 2000

And we should be relieved, the stock market shouls rally because the idiots can agree to RAISE the debt ceiling?

What kinda upside down world are we living in?

D

HOW TO DEAL WITH A FINANCIAL CRISIS

Problem is it isn't working except for the stock market, which means it isn't working for 95% of Americans, Wall Street poohbahs love it!!!

When they are done sucking every last TICK, they will dump on your heads....laughing all the way down...to the bank

AND NOT ONE ARREST, NOT ONE. OBAMA save your addresses to the people about how you are listening to the people, not much has changed from Bush

D

AVERAGE DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

*click to enlarge chart

RECOVERY?????

EMPLOYMENT DATA HUGE MISS

from yhoo
Jobs Barely Rise, Dashing Hopes of Economic Revival- Reuters
The U.S. added 18,000 jobs in June -- the fewest in nine months and well short of the 80,000 expected -- and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 9.2%.
 **DASHING? ECONOMIC REVIVAL? WHAT THEN WAS A DOUBLE off lows and new transport all time highs? BS? market leads economy? and BULLS WONT SELL THE TOP this time around and will ride this thing no matter what?

Only 18,000 jobs created!! Prior month was revised sharply downward. Yesterdays apparent BREAKOUT to new rally highs off recent lows, new ALL TIME highs in Transports...what did all that mean?
RALLY off Greece, debt deal hopefullness, ADP report, blahblah....the market is rigged! NO ONE short in front of AM data after ADP Thursday and 80% upside action.....

Now the SPIN comes in at CNBS, mark Zandi shown to be the bull fool again, predicting 150,000 jobs or whatever. 9.2% unemployment, wages fell.......now gov't austerity and cuts would cut into GDP as this is stimulus......rubber has long met the road

Last month is revised downward by 26,000 now that no one is looking, what good is any of this data?

AVG workweek fell by .10%, that doesn't happen in vibrant economy! THE MARKET RALLY IS REAL, and MIRAGE

D

SUPER CYCLE BROADENING MEGAPHONE TOP FORMING?

Broadening (MegaPhone) Pattern

http://www.tradechartpatterns.com/?category_name=megaphone

September 29, 2010 Broadening (MegaPhone) patterns are rare, but they are very reliable patterns. They are visually easy to detect as the price makes higher highs and lower-low Swings. The Upper and Lower Swings are connected by diverging trendlines. In Broadening Tops, the 1st Pivot should be on the Upper Trendline (in Broadening Bottoms, the 1st SwingPivot is lower trendline). The tradable pivots are (4) and (5). More reliable pivot is (4) as the pattern is still evolving. From Pivot 5, the pattern is either fall to lower-trendline or breakout and become a Continuation pattern of prior trend. The failure of 5-6 leg usually occurs at the mid Channel level. Aggressive traders could trade Pivot 3, but this may be not highly reliable as pattern is not fully formed and the Lower-Trend line is clearly not defined.

IS SHORT TERM CORRECTION NEAR?

I believe it is, SPX 1343-1345 area should repel advance until overbought condition gets relieved. Yesterdays advance actually came with buying and selling volume % nearly both at 50%. Not many sellers but buying volume has dried up and become more selective.

There may NOT be much downside, the game is rigged, so you have to play with the house, but deferring new buying until a PB runs its course may be best approach.

I am a perenial Bear right? NO! I have a BEARISH opinion of the fundamentals of the economy and at least in my mind these FACTS are indesputable. But remember what I say, opinions, news stories mean little to the market. And just like dot com era and the FALSE economy of 2003-2007, the non recovery recovery story being peddled around now will eventually BLOW UP and be exposed.

DID we not just have a debt bubble blow up? Then why in hell is corporate cash rich on balance sheets America now more heavily in debt than ever before?

According to the recent article I posted BIZ borrowed some $500 B last quarter, that is double what they borrowed last Fall.!! Their debt levels according to Brett Arends has risen 24% to $7.3 TRILLION in last 5 years.

IS THAT PROGRESS? lots of that CHEAP money goes to buying their own stock!!!!!!!!!! nothing to create jobs, just to enrich themselves by goosing share prices.

This is the truth and I'll continue to bring it to you. YES we have a BULL MKT, YES prices CAN go higher, but with LITTLE or NOTHING to show for it in the REAL ECONOMY, how do you think this will end?

Duratek

ALWAYS A REASON GIVEN

"U.S. stocks recovered from early loses to close near session highs Wednesday after EU officials pushed back against recent downgrades of Greek and Portuguese debt,

raising speculation that the union could move to minimize the impact of the ratings agencies."

RECOVERY NOW and THEN

If this doesn't drill home that something is still TERRIBLY WRONG nothing will. If the economy COULD stand on own 2 feet, would the FED STILL hold rates at ZERO%? The language will stay the same, accommodating forever?

Almost 3 years into "recovery" and rates still 0%? 9.1 % OFFICIAL unemployment, claims 4 week avg above 420,000, housing market still a shambles....BUT a rousing historic market bubble, I mean rally continues....how great is that?

AND all the countries that need money printed for them I mean bailouts can get it. Tax a poor mans' fun, liquor upped 3% to 9% now.

Savers, those in or near retirement, cannot get a plug nickle for savings its below even mentioning the yield, that DOES NOT attract money to the banks for investment.

What you are told is always half truths and mostly lies. If a DEAL is struck for debt ceiling, let's all rejoice....DO NOT ask how they did it or even what it all means. Higher taxes a and sit down...CUTS of govt spending? REALLY? REALLY???

And look closely, it will be over 10 years....long after this one term -er is gone. THIS is about getting
 re-elected or wanting that. This is to try and appease an electorate half asleep, they wont be paying attention to anything more than the headlines. IF the cuts have a T in it, like TRILLION...it is over 10 years, that's $100B that's a B illion.....per year...WOWEEKAZAMMMMMM won't THAT make a big difference in a deficit climbing above $14.5 TRILLION and remember they can CUT what they want....but the shit is still piling UP!!!! at NORTH of $1T to $1.5 TRILLION per year....

WHY don't they stop crapping around and raise it to like $20 TRILLION, get real?  gd save us all...

Duratek

SIMPLE TREND FOLLOWING

Should not bet against the direction of the 20 EMA, this charts helps to drive that home.....go WITH THE TREND.

D

"NEXT WORSE FINANCIAL CRISIS"

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113069/financial-crisis-marketwatch?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
5. Stocks are skyrocketing again. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has now doubled from the March 2009 lows. Isn't that good news? Well, yes, up to a point. Admittedly, a lot of it is just from debasement of the dollar (when the greenback goes down, Wall Street goes up, and vice versa). And we forget there were huge rallies on Wall Street during the bear markets of the 1930s and the 1970s, as there were in Japan in the 1990s. But the market boom, targeted especially toward the riskiest and junkiest stocks, raises risks. It leaves investors less room for positive surprises and much more room for disappointment. And stocks are not cheap. The dividend yield on the S&P is just 2%. According to one long-term measure — "Tobin's q," which compares share prices with the replacement cost of company assets — shares are now about 70% above average valuations. Furthermore, we have an aging population of Baby Boomers who still own a lot of stocks, and who are going to be selling as they near retirement.

Out of TZA, that didn't work, its set up....just wont trigger as yet. EXTEND and PRETEND continues, bulls see no worries.

IT and LT trend IS up still, I do not see another huge rally leg, but we are not falling off cliff either.....it would seem to me best to continue being defensive...and Im not sure that means bonds!
STock are priced BEYOND PERFECTION, and who is going to tell you the party is over? I hope to

Gold rockin and rolling today, correction seems near, but not today

Duratek

JOBS ARE CREATED IN A RECOVERY

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Challenger-report-Pace-of-cnnm-3064083541.html?x=0&.v=2
"As the economic recovery continues to lose momentum, more job losses are on the horizon for thousands of Americans, according to a report released Wednesday. The number of planned job cuts rose 11.6% in June to 41,432 from May's 37,135, according to outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Government workers will take the biggest hit, the report said, accounting for 10,176 of the announced reductions.
While the overall pace of job cuts has slowed since the recession, hiring has been spotty. Employers have now announced a total of 245,806 planned job cuts this year -- down 17.4% from 297,677 cuts announced in the first six months of 2010. But year over year, job cuts have increased 5.3% from June 2010."

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/06/news/international/china_interest_rate/index.htm?iid=HP_LN China raises key interest rate.

I was short with TZA  yesterday, AM gap down futures off 7 plus.

D

CORRECTION IS NEAR

First, I think yesterday didn't look like much, but it was hesitation in both directions that was clue to our next move. At this point both bulls and bears are not sure what next substantial move will be.

I think the 20 year yield will provide us with a powerful clue. It is hugging right above its 200 day moving average, yields can rise for several reasons, but usually it would be from the transfer out of bonds into equities. This reaalocation would put upward pressure on yields. When people are more fearful they tend to flock to safety, the US TReasuries and yields fall.

Since the rebound began, yields made U Turn and have recaptured the 200.....let's keep close eye on where the next move takes us.

Gold and oil have strengthned as well, and is THIS a new move higher sustainable? I have my doubts there as well.

A DEAL, even though we all KNOW a deal gets done. a deal to RAISE debt ceiling and all the talk about defecit reductions could provide bulls with the fuel they need to take market to new highs....that is where I am leaning UNLESS market breaks back below 1294-1296 level.

D

NOT MUCH GOING ON?

While men dressed as mattresses stand on the corner and as gold bars jumping up and down...."sell your gold for cash" human advertising the norm now....on the street corners.

Greek aid....catostrophy, $12B euros hold her til August....great fix.  Cut $1T of spending here to get debt ceiling deal? believe what you want. US will need $1T PLUS each year no matter what...cut $1T over maybe 10 years? all for show...for the peasants.

9.1 % unemployment, 4 week avg claims above 420,000  almost 3 years into "recovery" is that really a recovery?

DEBT now exploding again after a debt bubble burst? companies taking it on so they cam buy back stock and make earnings look better. Why don't these overpaid execs use the money and expand their business ans begin hiring some folks?

There is SO MUCH commercial retail space available for lease.....some recovery.

D

PROBLEMS IN PORTUGAL

LONDON (AP) — Ratings agency Moody's downgraded Portugal's government debt on Tuesday, citing growing risks the country will require a second rescue package because it cannot meet its debt reduction targets.
Moody's Investors Service cut its rating by one notch to Baa2 from Baa1 and said in a report that it was increasingly unlikely that Portugal would be able to borrow money on capital markets in 2013, as planned.
As a result, it said the country would probably require more financial aid — on top of the euro78 billion ($113 billion) bailout it received earlier this year — with private banks taking some losses.
Portugal has been shut out of bond markets for long-term loans since April, when its government collapsed, heightening investors concerns about its financial future.
http://news.yahoo.com/moodys-downgrades-portugal-fear-2nd-bailout-191239898.html

"COMPANIES ARE BUYING BACK SHARES--BUT INSIDERS AREN'T" and DEBT NEAR HIGHEST LEVELS

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21537/companies-are-buying-shares-but-insiders-arent by John Rubino

http://www.kangarootail.com/uncategorized/debt-outstanding-by-sector-quarterly-charts-1952-now/

How ODD is that, the debt BUBBLE pops.....but with FED induced 0% rates, companies, etc have been enticed to do what? ADD DEBT!!!!!!!!!! And what better way for a US company to act, then to borrow at LOW LOW RATES and use it to BUY BACK STOCK which gets deducted from outstanding to do what? MAKE EARNINGS LOOK BETTER THAN THEY ARE.
D

DEFICIT CEILING " WILL A DEAL BE STRUCK?"

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "President Barack Obama pressed his case on Saturday for achieving deficit reduction, in part by ending tax breaks and singling out hedge fund managers, oil companies and billionaires to take the hit.
Obama is locked in a dispute with Republicans over how to bring down the deficit as part of a deal to raise the debt ceiling and prevent Washington from default.
Democrats insist that some tax increases be included in a deficit-cutting package.
Republicans say that would be bad for the economy."

HFT

High-frequency trading from Marketplace on Vimeo.

Speed pays NY TIMES

In the OLD DAYS before HFT and Program trades became the MAJORITY of shares traded, a share bought was a "VOTE" for or a share sold against a company and their price and prospects.

Now, where HFT dominates the landscpae, IMHO I feel the voting machine is BROKEN and just as STEROIDS has skewed and made recent milestones validity in question, so has HFT

FLAMING HOT RALLY

3rd 80% plus up volume day in a row, what more does anyone need to see of increased DEMAND and lack of selling oomph...

Wall Street on Track for Best Week in Nearly a Year- Reuters

Stocks rallied on Friday for a fifth day and were on track to record their best week in nearly a year, after a surprising jump in manufacturing data eased concerns about a tepid economic recovery.

(doesn't take much to ease....as claims data IGNORED)

Deep recession & financial chaos: 'Very dark scenario' if debt ceiling isn't raised, Zandi says- The Daily Ticker  WILL NEVER LET THIS HAPPEN

No ONE LISTENS ANYMORE

Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan is making the media rounds with a rather dire outlook for the U.S. economy.

In the last few weeks, he has said he thinks it's "almost certain" Greece will default on its debt -- which could exacerbate the already weak U.S. recovery and possibly drive the nation back into a recession.

He has also called out the stimulus policies of his successor Ben Bernanke, stating that he thinks they haven't worked.

STAGE 1 EXIT LEFT

MINNEAPOLIS (Reuters) - "Minnesota's state government began a broad shut down on Friday going into the July 4 holiday after Democratic Governor Mark Dayton and Republican legislative leaders failed to reach a budget deal."

But in reality, the market displays bullish technical attitude, we have no bearish crosses, no monthly macd cross, so if its only our opinion that the markets are ready to falter, then that is not enough.

The bounce off the 200 SMA, is documented, the black boxes were set, the GREEK tragedy was in motion to be saved, for now....and coming is our turn. They will play out the DRAMA of the debt ceiling, Geithner and smart Bernanke are publicly warning catostrophe if they don't do something, meaning ALLOW the gov to borrow more than already mandated. HOW HARD a deal is that to make?

But be sure a huge drama will play out, then Obama can go on TV and say how great it is that the parties can work together to raise the debt ceiling.

Stock market revives and rates rise, FED slows purchases, ends QE2, rates rise....rates rise and put pressure on those seeking loans.

But as long as FED FUNDS rate stays at ZERO, savers will bescrewed and RISK ON trade will be alive.....OK.....this historic manipulation, grossly misaligning demand, resources and investment will end badly as all others before it has. WIll it be in a HUGE SPIKE in interest rates at a time savers still get ZERO %?  will the 30 yr old BOND BUBBLE BURST? OR IS IT THE GOVT DEBT BUBBLE?

from zerohedge.com
"The one and only clearest indication of just how effective the recovery and QE2 in general has been, comes courtesy of the USDA, whose just released update of April participation in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), better known as "foodstamps", shows yet another record, this time 44.647 million people, an increase from May's 44.587 million."


Duratek

ULTIMATE PENNY STOCK

GOLD vs NATGAS

I just wonder aloud if this BASING of natgas leads to a volatile BLASTOFF that would be AWESOME to ride....to the moon. Couldn't only a SICK economy lead to depressed nat gas as this?

D

SPX TREND LINE

CLICK TO ENLARGE

There hasn't been a 4 day move like this since Dec bottom and rally to May highs.

EVERY MGR is throwing in the towel of caution.....PMI risies? give me a break.....428,000 claims 2.5 years PLUS into recovery, chomp on that, mkt can do what it wants.

HIGHER it goes on flimsy circumstances, the harder it will fall.

VIX 16, what me worry?

10 Year breaking out in yield above 200 SMA. Money fleeing bonds into stocks because of GROWING STRENGTH in economy, and or fear of end of QE2?

RUT is small cap index, and its run up to downtrend line formed from top and lower lows

....decision time.

S and P 500 has similar trend line action.....boy I guess what was there to worry about?



NYA50R

WHAT PASSES FOR NEWS

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were headed for a fourth day of gains Thursday, as investors continued to cheer Greece's steps toward securing an aid package and awaited an implementation vote.

A weekly report on jobless claims, which showed that fewer Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, could help set the tone.

it dropped by 1,000 ! stil at 428K I KNOW they think avg Joe is a dumbass

"DEBT DEAL, THE FUNDAMENTAL MATHMATICAL FACTS OF FAILURE"

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=188993  Karl Denninger

MARKET GOT GREASED

ANother day in the Greek tradegy, but as every word leaked out of those hollowed chambers..."A DEAL IS STRUCK FOR MORE AUSTERITY...." yeah we need the $12 B Euros......don't pay any attention to that crowd rioting in the streets. And they fixed NOTHING, more can kicking.

Then we get to do it all over again in August, as that's all the further this bone will go...and we can cheer again.

And here at home, get ready for the nerve wrenching, gut busting worry about? DEBT CEILING!!! YES....oh my g-d will they raise it in time????? what horror, what suspense..what will happen, will they let the ceiling fall? will they raise it??? HOW HIGH???

I'm gonna go get a shot of WHISKEY and see you tomorrow...surely another bullet to dodge....mountain out of mole hill to make excuse for continued rally.

My 60M chart says rally about done, the daily chart says there is more room above...NO WAY ANY BEAR is in with both feet....

Duratek

GREEK TRAGEDY

It’s Groundhog Day In Greece, And It Will Be For A While

Jun. 28 2011 - 4:54 pm | 319 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments

By STEVE SCHAEFER

http://blogs.forbes.com/steveschaefer/2011/06/28/its-groundhog-day-in-greece-and-it-will-be-for-a-while/

Haven't we been here before? Cover via Amazon

Has anybody seen Bill Murray lately? If not, they might want to check Greece, where the debt crisis has a decided déjà vu flavor to it after initially flaring up last year.
“I’m afraid Greece will be like the movie Groundhog Day,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch currency strategist Paresh Upadhyaya, but this time around the scenario is going to repeat itself much sooner than a year down the road. Assuming this week’s vote in the Greek Parliament passes the austerity package, Upadhyaya says the next reevaluation from the market could come in August, with Prime Minister Papandreou having suggested he would like to call a referendum on further austerity in September.
Greece may move from the front to the back for a time, or go “from white hot to red hot,” Upadhyaya acknowledges, but it won’t be off the stage or the burner for very long.

CONFIDENCE?

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in May, decreased again in June. The Index now stands at 58.5 (1985=100), down from 61.7 in May. The Present Situation Index decreased to 37.6 from 39.3. The Expectations Index declined to 72.4 from 76.7 last month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for June’s preliminary results was June 16, 2011.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “This month’s decline in consumer confidence was driven by a less favorable assessment of current conditions and continued pessimism about the short-term outlook. Consumers rated both current business and labor market conditions less favorably than in May, and fewer consumers than last month foresee conditions improving over the next six months. Inflation fears eased considerably in June, but concerns about income prospects increased. Given the combination of uneasiness about the economic outlook and future earnings, consumers are likely to continue weighing their spending decisions quite carefully.”

Consumers’ appraisal of present conditions was less favorable than in May. Those claiming business conditions are “good” remained the same at 14.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 38.0 percent from 37.2 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the job market was also less favorable. Those stating jobs are “hard to get” increased to 43.8 percent from 43.5 percent, while those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 5.2 percent from 5.7 percent.

TALE OF 2 HEADLINES

Spring buying boosts home prices in 13 U.S. cities- AP               

BUT

"Case Shiller falls 3.9%" ???

We're trapped between a trading range, 1295 above 1260 ish below....Greece this Greece that. Debt ceiling this.....don't worry, they can print more and raise the ceiling, isn't that great?

I am involved in multiple projects, new business since leaving company of 30 years, and working on a better trading platform with observable back tested signals....and walking my dog...I may alter when I post....more later....please stay with me....

D

LOOKING FOR CLUES

SHILLING NOT EXCITED

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113005/shilling-new-recession-marketwatch?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

ITS ALL ABOUT GREECE?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf  only one direction...

Greek leaders reached an agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on another round of tax hikes and spending cuts, Reuters reported.

A soaring moment

The deal was taken as a positive on a day otherwise dominated by the sinking prospects for U.S. growth and policymakers' latest act of desperation, the release of oil reserves at a time when there is no supply shock. Stocks trimmed their losses after earlier falling as much as 2%.
But it is easy to see that the agreement reached Thursday is just the first of many hoops that the save-the-euro crowd must jump through.
Greece, after all, has a budget deficit, a contracting economy and more than 300 billion euros ($425 billion) in debt. This is not the idea combination."
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/23/walking-the-greek-tightrope/?iid=HP_LN