Wednesday, July 20, 2011

HOUSING RECOVERY DO YOU SEE IT?

While it's great AAPL is selling tons of gadgets, we sit at the FORK TONGUE in road where we might be damned if we do, and damned if we don't!

While raising the ceiling on what our government can borrow will lift most boats, in particular stock prices, it does little for economy and the worst hit small business, avg American, and housing.

LOOK closely at what they say they will cut, there are no real MEAT here in govt spending, it will be mostly BS accounting or chops at the little guy.....or some mysterious formula or outlay. BILLIONS will continue to be wasted, BILLIONS of spending kept OFF the official books....and the deficit will then continue to rise by $TRILLION PLUS into the near future.

How do you do, when you max all your credit cards out? Well OK you don't but if you did, you would be out of luck and you pay 20% interest. Our GOVT is not out of luck and is paying below 3% !!!

WHY below 3%, because the Federal reserve OWNS the majority of new debt issued by the US GOVT! and that cannot continue into perpetuity. ALL THE US can hope to pay is the INTEREST on the debt, NEVER the principal...they can never own their house.

ANY large increase in rates would be deadly, 20% of our economy are government transfer payments to the unemployed. We still have 9.2% (much worse actually) unemployment 3 years into recovery, so why is the stock market up over 80% from lows? because that is where the money flows..INSTEAD of where it can do some real good and help to create jobs.

That tells me, YES the market can continue to go higher, yes APPLE can sell for $1,000 a share.....but the market is the beneficiary of near lowest rates on record, people are forced into the risk to get returns. SAVERS are hosed don daily basis, AKA retirees.

THIS is an unabalnaced and overleradged situation that will come to end. The next BUBBLE may be gov't debt and the bond market. OTHER countries cannot refinance their debt as the FREE MKT system works to raise rates sky high....so they bail outs...unending bailouts.

In the US, we have the RESERVE currency, so we can print, and print and print, and the FED can manipulate rates well below where a FREE MKT would have them.

Supply and demand...not working here. and that sets up an horrible accident down the road and it will start in the stock market and catch most completely stupified when the game of musical chairs ends

D

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