LONG TERM SPX CHART TO PONDER

Is the recent splurt above wedge a "throw over", and would a fall back INTO wedge (below 1600) put this pattern back on the table?

If you think the market has either one more huge push up to make or has MUCH further to run then you don't even consider such patterns.

WHat has changed? late Friday selloff where traders don't want to hold for Monday? What we can see with our own 2 eyes is that BOND prices are falling (yields rising) with stocks, and commodities and that is new.

Rates are rising, so where is the flight to quality? FED has been sopping up $45B in demand a month. Their goal is to keep long term rates DOWN, so why are they rising? Where would rates be if there wasn't artificial $45B a month plus another $40B MBS.

Answer is FED controls ST rates, rates are still relatively low, but way off bottom.

JAPANESE MKT has turned very volatile, what a mess IMHO.

D

MISALLOCATIONS IN JAPAN

http://www.safehaven.com/article/29904/four-signs-that-were-back-in-dangerous-bubble-territory
" 4 signs we're back in serious bubble territory"

D

STOCKS REACT TO BERNANKECOMMENTS

It may be more just the market was tired, and needed excuse to take a rest, I am NOT convinced final highs are in. But we did have a significan reversal day where prices staged a strong rally to new highs (Dow was up 154) and then reversed on just the slightest suggestion the "FED could be easing its purchases of Bonds if labor market improves by end of summer"

The mere suggestion of the FED not backstopping market led to a rush for the exits? Tells you a LOT of what has caused the market to rally for 5 years. How ugly could it get should the music actually be FORCED to stop? ISNT IT AN "ALL IN"MKT NOW?

VIX ended at 13.82, hardly a panic.

D

"MOST SHALLOW SERVICES RECOVERY ON RECORD"

http://contraryinvestor.com/2013/05/18/manufacturing-some-perspective/

IS WEAKNESS PRICE OF GOLD A CANARY IN THE GOLD MINE

http://www.prudentbear.com/2013/05/financial-euphoria.html excerpt from Noland's "Financial Euphoria article linked to"

 "These days, the dynamic of over-issued, mispriced finance is a global phenomenon – the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Asia and the “developing” economies. The perception that central bankers will ensure ongoing asset inflation is an unprecedented global phenomenon. The collapse in yields and risk premiums in debt markets across the globe is unlike anything I’ve ever witnessed or studied historically. These days, asset inflation, speculation and Bubbles prevail virtually everywhere. Moreover, the gulfs between inflating assets and weakening economic fundamentals seemingly widen everywhere, as Financial Euphoria engulfs debt and equity securities markets around the world. As noted this week by the great market watcher and historian Art Cashin: This market is unlike anything we’ve ever experienced."

My take on gold etc.


Gold initially has responded (its march to $1,900) to CB monetary inflation, the attempt to devalue world currencies, how will it respond to the END GAME, or are we already seeing that? IS the price of gold warning of a coming major top in world stock markets? Too hard to argue for deflation over inflation, so I won't do that, but in the end, when it all collapses, It is my feeling that debts will be crushed, defaulted on a massive scale.....the QE has only expanded and gone viral...with Japan now pumping $100B in equiv currency...yet Gold falters....interesting in the least

 

I have NEVER seen such complacency as it relates to what I hear, as I drive around most days, what people tell me (many of them financial professionals) and nowhere do I hear much worry. And I do hear "harder" to find value, but they keep looking and none of them are close to more "defensive" measures. Most say, "we are VALUE investors, if the shares fall, then further from underlying values then we will buy more". In the long run that probably works, in the ST to IT can cause lots of pain, when the PAIN gets too much to bear, weak hands succumb and we get the panic selling to create bottoms, like in 2008-2009 etc.

 

5 YEARS into 0% rate policies, and NO sign nor signal when it might end. Last 2 times maybe the FED remembers that as things got better they began to INCH rates backup, as they did that stocks topped. Now THIS TIME an even LONGER more AGGRESSIVE monetary easing and stoking of speculative juices, which have helped risky assets/stocks reach new all time highs.....this is not just a US phenom, it is now as Noland suggested this week a "worldwide affair".....so instead of a TECH BUBBLE, a FINANCE BUBBLE, etc..we now are in the midst, near the end? of a WORLDWIDE BUBBLE. (synchronized QE)

 

Many, like myself, preaching warnings....and not going along for the ride are ridiculed and made to look like the fool. We are all to smart to know that you cannot print your way to prosperity. If the current strategy, given the highs in markets around the world, has not given those responsible what they wanted....then what will??

 

And if the intensity of "digital" printing cannot propel Gold to NEW highs as it has paper assets, IMHO.....the current weakness in GOLD is the proverbial CANARY IN THE COAL MINE. I have a SIMPLE but proprietary measure of extremes, highest prior level at THE TOP was 138 (2007), we are north of 133 and the angle is straight up. IMHO we are in the latter stages of the final melt up in world equities.....and surely it could go higher than one would think.....and a TOP could melt down slowly at first so those who love the ADV/DECLINE signals will get theirs too. Riding the lows (post 2009), even as fundies were awful provided low risk to reward....not anymore.

 

And the weakness in the Gold sector, is screaming something is horribly wrong as the printing presses are kicking into another gear...

PERFECTLY NORMAL

"IT'S ALL ONE BIG HISTORIC BUBBLE"

http://www.prudentbear.com/2013/05/thoughts-on-electronic-printing-press.html

"In equities markets, well, speculative dynamics have taken full command. The bears have been squeezed into oblivion, with a dearth of selling pressure now allowing speculators to easily push prices higher. Bringing back memories of 1999, heavily shorted Tesla Motors was up 41% this week and Green Mountain Coffee jumped 33%. It was a week where I was again contemplating “how crazy could things get?”

The Fed and global bankers should never have become such active players in the financial markets. Asset inflation is indeed more dangerous than consumer price inflation. Central banks will actively support asset prices, while refusing to remove the punchbowl. At all costs, Chairman Bernanke will avoid being a Bubble Popper. And when you read his comments from Friday morning (below), keep in mind that as Bubbles become more systemic they actually become less conspicuous. Today, Bubbles proliferate throughout the securities and asset markets. It’s all become one big historic global Bubble. Yet the Bernanke Fed won’t even begin tapering its $85bn monthly “money printing” operation in the midst of increasingly conspicuous market excesses. "

Folks, it's not really an argument to be had as to whether the stock market rally from 2009 has enterred the speculative blowoff phase, or that what we are witnessing is BUBBLE DYNAMICS.

And what eventually happens to all bubbles throughout history? THEY POP. And what happens when they pop?

Goodnight. This time I think everyone will know exactlt where to point the finger, a loss of faith in the FED on top of the greatest bubble bursting in history, will prove to be a nasty combo.

D

BUBBLE TALK, BERNANKE HATERS, COMMON SENSE

http://www.prudentbear.com/2013/05/too-much-asset-inflation.html  Tid bits from last weeks CBB

April 30 – Bloomberg (Shobhana Chandra): “Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in April for the first time in more than three years, a sign manufacturing may be a smaller contributor to economic growth this quarter. The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer fell to 49 in April, the lowest since September 2009, from 52.4 last month.”

Federal Reserve Watch:

May 3 – Bloomberg (Steve Matthews): “Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker voiced opposition to bond purchases by the Fed, saying the buying probably won’t spur growth beyond 2% while making an exit from stimulus more challenging. ‘The benefit-cost trade-off associated with further monetary stimulus does not look promising… The Fed seems to be unable to improve real growth, despite striving mightily over the last few years, and further increases in the size of our balance sheet raise the risks associated with the ‘exit process’ when it’s time to withdraw stimulus.’”

May 1 – Bloomberg (Fergal O’Brien): “Harvard Economics Professor Martin Feldstein comments on Federal Reserve in CNBC interview: The Fed has ‘stopped talking about early exits or slowing down but frankly I think they’re not accomplishing very much and they are adding to risks in economy… There’s good reason -- not in the way they think about it there’s good reason to be slowing down this process. There are some serious bubbles developing in this economy.’ Feldstein says 10-year Treasury yield not sustainable. ‘I think it has risks and it’s spreading over into things like the stock market.’”
April 29 – Bloomberg (Willow Bay, Jeff Kearns and Jeanna Smialek): “Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said the central bank will probably press on with its ‘aggressive’ easing as growth this year may fall short of the pace needed to put millions of Americans back to work. Job growth requires a 3% to 3.5% expansion that won’t be in reach for the world’s largest economy this year, Warsh said…”

"We are forming balloons......why is the German stock market at new highs with the economy doing so poorly......" said a noted economist on Bloomberg yesterday.

Because the STOCK MARKET and other RISKY asset classes is exactly where the record QE is going. SO you play or go home.

These foolish men are not concerned nor do they really know where this will end, the consequences of BUBBLE CREATION.
You may think I don't like a rising stock market by my comments, that is not true. I don't like a MANIPULATED, FED TARGETED stock market which now solely relies on the FED continuing what they are doing and perhaps even in greater doses to keep the asset inflation going.

We can't even create enough economic growth to create enough jobs for those looking, 3-3.5% GDP.
MAJORITY of jobs in the last report were "part-time".

Each time we have a boom that ends in a BUBBLE, the FED has stated "didn't see that coming". FED was not worried about housing market in 2006, saying " never been a case of year over year price decline.....NO BUBBLE, NO WORRY"....remember how that turned out.

How about the TECH BUBBLE of the pate 90'S, how did that work out? What helped cause and feed that? ULTRA LOOSE MONETARY POLICY, which ramped up into Y2K over FEARS over what might happen when the 1999 calendar turned over to 2000.

To fight that Recession, we got 1% rates, they held it there so long it helped create the next BUBBLE, the HOUSING REAL ESTATE MORTGAGE FINANCING BANKING CRISIS BUBBLE. How'd that turn out?

AGAIN, the FED or policy makers didn't see the excessive speculation going on? NO ONE stepped in to protect us, to put in measures that would have helped us to avoid an almost 1930 like Depression?

Now, it is a WORLDWIDE open spigot, money printing, QE war from the world's Central banks, everyone is IN THE POOL HERE!!!!!

OF COURSE the worlds stock markets are soaring, even as WEAK economic data comes in.
GOOD is GOOD and BAD is even better, so it insures MORE And MORE of the same.

0% rates, no place safe for Conservative investors, savers.....if everyone isn't in the pool, they will be soon. IS there a BEAR left standing now? IS there a CHORUS of non believers and furry folk running around? EVEN perennial bear Roubini sees no trouble for at least 2 more years.

Good news is good, bad news is great....so it would appear BULLS have nothing to worry about. The current policies and 0% rates will continue until they don't.

BUT when you consider how ULTRA LOW RATES misprice risk, if you understand YES THIS IS A BULL RALLY, but NO it cannot stand on its own 2 feet.

AS soon as the FED signals they will pull back, even a little, or inflation is undeniable, or LONG TERM RATES RISE out of control of the FED to signal GAME OVER....
..THAT will leave a HORDE, a CADRE of players that will want to make their way to the exits.....LIKE NEVER BEFORE.

Also keep in mind, that to SAVE US in 2008-2009, the Banks were bailed out, AIG etc and most of the risk was taken off THEM, and given to US the avg people. WE are now saddled with all of their debt and malfeasance, and they are free again to use FREE (FED) MONEY and let their computer algorithms run the market, jump in front of your trades, use unlimited leverage and derivitives with basically no one policing or giving a hoot as long as the trickle down (thought this was Rep Reagonomics?) stock market inflation would spur the real economy. WELL HELOOO IT IS NOT!!! BUT THESE IDIOTS PERSIST!. I'm not a Bernanke hater, I'm a BAD POLICY hater!

Help me see where you can reach prosperity and economic job creating growth by printing money and leaving rates at 0%. How has it worked out since 2008? No one can stop them, but at least they should have courtesy to use a rubber while f'ing us!

The market can fall a lot faster than it rises, most of 2007-2009 losses came in a matter of months, it took 5 years to gain it back.....all through FED QE pumping and printing.

We now have a full scale CRACK ADDICT MARKET, GD help us when we run out of crack, or an unintended consequence raises its head, with ultra, near historic NEAR ZOMBIE like indifference to fear, the next PRICK of this NEW BUBBLE, the depth to where it takes us could surpass anything experienced so far.
If what I suggest is possible, what can we do to protect ourselves, and will we see it coming?

D

10 YEAR YIELDS TELL A STORY

We are still sitting at generational LOWS for yields on the 10 year notes, these are BELOW the real inflation rates. These LOW FED induced rates are mispricing risk in the economy and creating MAMOTH BUBBLES.

5 YEARS into recovery, STOCKS AT ALL TIME NEW HIGHS.....but yields are LOWER than they were at 2009 crisis bottom?

If everything was all peachy keen, why then don't we begin to normalize things?

D

IS BROADENING MEGAPHONE PATTERN NEGATED?

Possibly, I try to present what is, not just what I think what SHOULD be. Advance delcine lines hitting all time highs, with all manner of stocks doing so cannot be taken as BEARISH.

The world markets are showing strength, like it or not. Economic fundies may be weakening, more on government assistance than ever before....but stocks still rising.

The FED, for now trumps all other developments. I would still argue this will not end well, but that is just my opinion, current stock action does not bear that out. Charts don't lie.

Does above "breakout" signal maybe Roubini comments looking for 2 more years of bull are accurate...then he says lookout. SPX could be at 1900 or more by then.

This is NOT a typical rally, or bull, let's at least get that straight. World Central banks are blowing bubbles like crazy to save us from the financial abyss and for now, judging by stocks it is working.

STock markets are supposed to be "discounting mechanisms", then they for now appear to be saying blue skies ahead.

When stocks continue higher, with fewer and fewer stocks participating, this will be seen by lagging Advance Decline line, THAT will be one of your warnings....THIS is not present today.

With 0% returns on anything else, stocks and riskier asset classes appear to be about only game in town....play or go home.

IMHO, what this WILL do, is set those staying TOO long to the FED punchbowl party for an Historic crash/decline. It would seem there is barely a BEAR left in the house.

Even if sentiment corrects, stocks develop a LITTLE weakness.....greedy hands await.....for now.

This can all change, like the grain of sand analogy....we dont know what or when, but a single grain of trouble could set the whole mess tumbling...we will either SEE it coming as suggested above, or we won't at all (Crash scenario)

D

MONEY FOR NOTHING

"With no recovery in sight, where's all this money going? It is creating bubbles. Bubbles in the housing sector, the stock market, and government debt. The national debt is fast approaching $17 trillion, with the Fed monetizing most of the newly issued debt. The stock market has been hitting record highs for the past two months as investors seek to capitalize on the Fed's easy money. After all, as long as the Fed keeps the spigot open, nominal profits are there for the taking. But this is a house of cards. Eventually, just like in 2008-2009, the market will discipline the bad actions of the Fed and seek to find the real normal."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/29718/federal-reserve-blows-more-bubbles

A CRASH IS COMING

Here for anyone who thinks or believes what the MEDIA is telling everyone that NEW HIGHS is bullish for mkt. IMHO we are STUCK in Secular BEAR, and only 2 things can happen.....a NEW LOWER LOW comes in the future within 3 years or a LOW COMES without lower RSI, MACD etc....giving us hint that is THE LOW....for decades.

 SO over last 13 years we have higher highs and lower lows....a REAL oddity

MUST READ ON FED LED DESTRUCTION

"At some stage, central banks inevitably realize, regardless of whether they admit the catastrophic nature of their own failings, that the cessation of money-printing will cause an instant depression. Even though at that point the cessation of money-printing may be the only action capable of saving society, that becomes a secondary consideration compared to the desire to avoid immediate pain and blame. The world’s central banks are in very deep with QE at present, and the risks continue to build with every new purchase of stocks and bonds with newly-printed money."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-03/elliotts-singer-bernanke-destroying-value-money-and-uprooting-basic-stability-societ

SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE

IF 6 WAS 9, PMI CRASHES, MARKET SOARS

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-30/macro-collapse-pushes-sp-500-new-all-time-nominal-high-after-close

NO FEAR

After listening to Bloomberg and CNBC commentators and guests all week, a commom theme was running through their message....."DO NOT FEAR A CORRECTION" even if one was overdue. The reason given is a major correction is not possible if even less liekly with the Federal Reserve pumping a continuous $85 Billion into the market each and every month.

Even as margins compress and earnings growth has slowed to a crawl, even as it is obvious all this pumping and humping hs not materially gotten into the real economy, continue as you were...NO FEAR.

If you cannot print your way to prosperity, why do they persist?  Because it is IN FOR A PENNY, IN FOR A POUND mentality, influence what you can and hope it trickles down into the general good.

What is actually happening, is these policies are enriching those who are already rich, those who have a large portion of their wealth in common stocks. It must be nice for those like Zuckerberg of FB fame, can peel off some shares and put some more $BILLION in his pile, and know he has
609 Million more shares to play with. And to think many complain when a pro athlete gets a $100M contract over 5 years.....if this isn't pure obscenity, I don't know what is.

Those INSIDERS with those MILLIONS of shares, and the company has declared dividends, they get to cash in and only pay 15% tax rate. Now many companies have decided to SHARE in their cash hordes with the investors......but the avg Joe may have 100's even 1,000's of shares of a given company....those dividends are not making a big difference in their economic lives.

The GULF between the rich and the poor middle class has expanded to a divide not seen in decades.

There has been only marginal recovery in Consumer Sentiment since the 2009 lows, this has been in many circles the weakest statistical recovery ever recorded....just NOT in stock prices.

SO the FED has targeted risky asset price appreciation (as has Euro CB'S and JCB), and has supported such with QE and now a whopping $85B a month. in asset purchases, even though stock manipulation is not in their mandate.

The TWITTER stock swoon, and minutes later recovery, is a microcosm of what is wrong and what COULD happen in the future facing investors.

There was NO TWITTER PANIC, the so called panic was just computer trading programs reacting to certain taglines they picked up in the news, the Twitter faked up release about the WH......this is what awaits people sitting idley buy and riding the BS rally for all its worth....when the MUSIC or manipulation, when the FED is forced to stop priniting money at an $85B a month clip....the false SUPPORT for the stock market removed will cause a horrendous crash. IMHO

D

CORPORATE PROFITS ARE 70% ABOVE HISTORICAL NORM

And don't they tend to REVERT BACK to the norm?

D

THE GREAT DIVIDE

http://www.safehaven.com/article/29472/quantifornication-and-an-american-spring

"The class divide
The S&P 500 - an index of 500 large US companies - has finally, after a four year rally, recouped all of its losses from the 2008 global financial crisis.
The S&P 500 became the last major US index to hit a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial average has already climbed past its previous high.
The average net worth of the 400 wealthiest Americans, classified as the super rich, rose to an all-time record of $4.2 billion, up more than 13 percent from a year ago. Collectively, this group's net worth, currently at $1.7 trillion, is the equivalent of one-eighth of the entire U.S. economy.

• The top one percent of the American population controls 42 percent of all financial wealth in the country.
• The top 20 percent control roughly 90 percent of all stock ownership and financial wealth.
• The bottom 80 percent of Americans control less than 10 percent of all stocks owned.
• The bottom 80 percent of Americans hold roughly 5 to 8 percent of all financial wealth (non-housing related).

"The vast majority of Americans are not the beneficiaries of this "buoyant economy." Rather, growing numbers of people have been thrown deeper into poverty and social distress. Long-term unemployment has become entrenched. Working families are saddled with growing debt and struggle to pay for housing and other basic necessities, let alone put aside anything for retirement...
The US Federal Reserve is pumping $85 billion a month in virtually free money into the financial system, fueling the stock market boom.This is more money in a month than the $76.6 billion the federal government spent all of last year to provide SNAP benefits to 47.8 million impoverished Americans." The two sides of the US economic "recovery", wsws.org
Income inequality is the highest it's been since World War II."

What is the definition of stupid? Continuing to do the same thing expecting a different result?
The "WEALTH EFFECT" is like TRICKLE DOWN economics, but in this case, it isn't trickling down.

The Federal Reserve is working from an untried playbook, making this up as it goes. And they are in now $2.5 TRILLION of QE and adding $85B a month, but my friends it is going into the stock market and other RISKY assets, so that is the reason we are not seeing and feeling a greater effect int he real world.

I don't think they are bad people, but I do think they are closed minded and a few people are making decisions that effect 10's of millions....and they may be wrong!

The avg guy on street does not own stocks or owns not enough to FEEL JIGGY, to CASH OUT and SPEND, which spurs economy. Just look at recent CONSUMER SENTIMENT POLLS that show the worst recovery from recession since these records were held.

More people getting government assistance then before crisis. ALL I am saying folks is SOMETHING IS WRONG, we are misallocating resources AGAIN, which are benefiting a very few people at expense of the many.

Now with 0% return on savings, people have been FORCED into the stock market helping it reach new all time highs....if we reach another EVERYONE IS ON THE SHIP MOMENTS.....getting off will bemore like being thrown overboard...that I believe is coming.

D

GOLD APPLE

THROW OVER MOVE?

If this pattern is to play out, the "Megaphone" topping pattern, then there isn't much more room to move with today's large 20 pt SPX vault.

It has that final look of coming out of the smaller wedge pattern, a terminal move, into the triple top, megaphone topping area.

There is no need to philosophize, conjecture, or otherwise, just to witness it.

D

NOT EVERYONE BULLISH

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/p-500-may-fall-more-40-fall-chris-120957460.html

This does NOT include investors of course!,  they are ALL IN THE POOL

D

"CHAMP TO CHUMP CYCLE"

"According to Hussman, corporate profits are near 11% of GDP and 70% above the historical norm. (Hussman agrees with Warren Buffett that one has to be wildly optimistic to believe corporate profits -- as a percent of GDP -- can hold above 6% for a sustained period.)"

http://tinyurl.com/d5qjv6j

MUSICAL CHAIRS AND WHEN DOES THE MUSIC STOP?

http://www.prudentbear.com/2013/04/kuroda-leapfrogs-bernanke.html Doug Noland at Prudent Bear

"Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB and others have been working desperately to keep investors and speculators fully engaged in global debt, equities and risk markets. With near zero interest-rates and Trillions of monetization, “money” is being methodically devalued around the world. Federal Reserve devaluation is forcing savers out of “money” and into risk markets, apparently believing that asset inflation will spur wealth-creation, risk-taking and economic activity."

Holy print mania Batman! Friends, is printing money the answer to the EVIL that has befallen us??
And they don't seem like they have any intention of stopping.

You cannot hide under any rock, nor put your monies under you bed nor pillow case, as the CB'ers are determined to destroy our concept of fiat currencies. You have a problem, just print some more money (digitally) and it goes away?

In the history of this country, is there any example you can give me where you can PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY? INFLATE DEBT AWAY? Are we fighting DEFLATION?

What happens when people realize that money may not be the trusted store house of value it was supposed to be and not a toy to be played with by the Federal Reserve System built and entrusted with sound money as one of their main reasons for being? Why are they NOT protecting our reserve Currency? Now in competition with others, like Japan in a race to devalue their currency's value to help inflate debts away? Debts incurred partly because of their inept and wrongful policies on interest rates to begin with?

Devalue your currency and watch your risky assets rise by over 20% ? That's the Nikk. Japan one of the most indebted countries in history? 290% of GDP

Fridays "employment" (or lack of) report shows the folly of the current 5 years of FAILED FED POLICY of trying to force every saver from their hole into the stock market. SHAZAAM it worked to rally stocks to new highs......f the fact that the REAL economy didn't come with it.

What will happen when the music stops? doesn't it always? Markets go in cycles, always have, always will. 5 years for cyclical Bull mkt is long int he tooth.

WILL the policies enacted and forced upon us the last 5 years comeback to bite us in the ass? I think so. WHAT happens if the avg Joe finally up and leaves the asset markets for good, realizing it for the PONZI SCHEME IT IS?

It's great when unemployment rate can drop because so many en masse drop out of the labor pool? SEEING NEW LOWS not seen since the 70's in the LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE doesn't bring anyone else to pause or question current policies for their effectiveness.

Where is our country headed where near 0% rates encourage the government to continue its deficit policies and as national debt continues to grow by a $trillion or more each year, added to what we cannot already pay back....ever? This folly is made possible by historical low interest rates.....surely they will last forever.

GETTING CLOSER TO FED'S UNEMPLOYMENT TARGET

Unemployment today DROPPED another.1% to 7.6%. But unfortunately the rate did not drop because of good news and economic vitality, it dropped because a huge number of job seekers just DROPPED OUT of the job seeking market. The labor participation rate dropped to its lowest reading since the 1970'S!

SO we have had a slew of people accepting part time jobs who want full time jobs, now we have a slew of part timers and those who cannot find any job all dropping out.

Waged are stagnant, energy, food and some other costs continue to rise in an atmosphere which I will label DEFLATIONARY.

5 years of failed Government and Central Bank inflationary, money printing policies and after 5 years we have such a flacid economy?

These historic low interest rates do not stimulate INVESTMENT, they DO stimulate risk taking and help support speculation in risky asset classes at the expense of SOUND MONETARY POLICY.

I have expounded for years how I do not like the FED policy of 0% interest rates and how it is helping to misallocate funds to risky investments and away from sound economic growth strategies.
I have complained for years how these same policies unfairly target the Conservative group of investors and have taken away any chance of a SAFE RETURN.

With little else to choose, it causes the vast majority to go in the same direction, crowd the boat so to speak.

This is the preverbial game of MUSICAL CHAIRS, and when the music stops, it isn't going to matter where interest rates are. The HERD has followed the path of least resistance, and when this trend reverses and it always does, when FEAR that 4 letter word creeps back into the market, you are going to witness a MAJOR HAIRCUT to stock prices, IMHO

D

WHO SAW THIS COLLAPSE COMING?

CAW CAW

Black swans? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-black-swans-hovering-over-200224264.html

Caw for crows.......

We are hitting this turbulence at the triple top and expanding wedge area I have been posting.....just saying.

D

CONTRASTS ABOUND

"The results of a closely watched business confidence survey in Japan showed that despite a surge in stock prices and a steep fall in the yen, Japanese manufacturers are still largely in a pessimistic mood.
The Tankan survey, Bank of Japan's (BOJ) key economic indicator, came in at minus 8 for the January to March quarter instead of the anticipated minus 7 level. Though the reading was the best in three quarters it was still in negative territory showing that there are more pessimists than optimists among the manufacturers surveyed.
This contrasts with a 34 percent rally in the Nikkei 225 since November when Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, started pushing for aggressive monetary policy and economic stimulus to end deflation and spur growth. "

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-japans-manufacturers-bearish-082814512.html

Risky Assets Are Already In A Bubble

http://www.safehaven.com/article/29231/equity-bubble-is-based-on-unsustainable-earnings

"If market forces were allowed to prevail and the government permitted the economy to deleverage, earnings of U.S. corporations would be in a depression. And the price to earnings ratio would reveal that stock prices are already in a bubble. A bubble that is only becoming more dangerous with each day of the Fed's money printing."

5 years of intervention and historical stimulus and manipulation. The Federal Rserve is in uncharted territory and admits it is making it up as they go along. So, a room full of men can make decisions effecting the whole country, the entire world population?
                            And there are NO checks and balances for this room full of men?

This room full of men, known as the Federal Reserve, can set interest rate policy and they serve no man, no country, no President, answer to no one?

If printng of $3 TRILLION and flushing it into risky assets has helped corporate profits, stabilized housing, improved home prices, improved Consumer sentiment, then what will happen when this can no longer be done? If this is not a grass roots movement, if the economy and markets cannot stand on their own 2 feet, what will happen when these policies are reversed?

At the moment, there is little in competition with rising asset prices, as the SAVER has been rubber hosed. A $MILLION in a savings of MM account will net you about $100 !!! A $100 return on your $1 MILLION????

I keep hearing radio ads for seminars which will teach you how to ???? FLIP HOUSES!! WTF???
25% of homes bought are from "investors", not new home owners, this is a huge %. 0% rates,
3% mortgages come with a price...CHEAP MONEY COMES WITH A PRICE. That price is the deleveraging processs was not allowed to take place and the HEALING needed to reset economy has not taken place, what we have instead in the steady IV DRIP from the FED RESERVE.....and other CB'S.

If you think we are at beginning of some new great movement, a new great bull market and SOUND economic expansion, then fear not. If however, you question the current environment, understand how we got here and realize it is NOT ORGANIC, then while you are eating your Organic baby spinach salad, and roasted veggie pizza on a gluten free crust with tofu cheese.....think carefully what you are doing and consider other outcomes are possible in the future other than the rosy scenario.

D

NYSE MARGIN DEBT APPROACHING EXTREMES

http://www.businessinsider.com/first-margin-debt-sell-signal-in-3-years-2013-3

This was generated on March 6th, and by itself is not proof of a top. What this does show is the EXTREME ALL IN SENTIMENT being generated as we are making new highs in the market.

While other data suggests a strong market internal, IMHO it would be prudent to be cautious going forward with new allocations until some froth is removed. Current advance I think is around 4 months old. Would it be the "pause that refreshes"? Could be, many obviously think so.

Wrap your head around this thought. Those who prefer safety for safety sake or because of their age, in retirement, cannot or do not want to take on risk.....these have been FORCED into risky assets, stocks, because of continued FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY.

The idea is to create a wealth effect loop, where rising stock prices beget home purchases, beget rising home values, beget consumer confidence, beget job creation, which in turns feeds the loop and back again. PROBLEM SOLVED!

Balance sheet of FED has grown from $800 B to near $4 T in last 5 years....they make this up as they go along, they have NO exit plan.

The companies in the SPX will see there first qtr of falling ro flat profits since this Bull began I believe. FDX warned and missed their profit target. We will keep close eye on the Transports going forward.

Then there is this http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf, unsettling to say the least.

D

DOES THE FED HAVE EXIT STRATEGY?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-4-trillion-wheres-exit-152851364.html

"The Fed's reticence to divulge their plan for exiting has some of its own members on edge, as a messy exit could throttle a market rally, the ups and downs of which have been closely tied to the asset purchase cycle."

COPPER WEAKNESS

Copper prices have been falling since 2011, bears watching.

D

LONG TERM INVESTING, DYSFUNCTIONAL ECONOMY

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10772

"There’s no historical precedent for such massive and protracted deficits in a country’s external account. There is no precedent for such a consumption and services-dominated economic structure. And there’s no precedent for anything remotely comparable to the current fiscal and monetary policy regime.
Decades of unfettered global finance have, not unpredictably, fostered progressive financial and economic fragilities. These policy-induced deficiencies have incited increasingly desperate policy measures - and attendant market exuberance. Indeed, it’s all evolved into one epic experiment in unanchored international finance, unchecked speculation and financial leveraging, new paradigm economic structures, ballooning global imbalances and ever expanding monetary inflation. So I especially appreciate Mr. Volcker’s pertinent insights. And to see Greenspan on CNBC touting an equities valuation model and market undervaluation – well, it was just more of the ridiculous."

When considering your options and investing strategy, you must consider your goals and time frame.
If you are young, especially if you have established retirement account that is tax deferred, you can keep a LONG TERM perspective and stay IN the market come hell or high water.

Do you find this surprising coming from me?
Don't, I also have funds in a 401K invested in some 15 products across broad spectrum of investments. The MAIN issue I would ever have is if you atrying to get a LUMP SUM in at any given juncture, easing it in would be better call, IMHO.

Are you buying near THE TOP? If long term, meaning 10 PLUS years or more, who cares? The avg, and even above avg person will not cannot try to TIME enterring and exiting. What WILL happen is these decisions will be dominated by EMOTION. You will gamble near the top because of GREED, you will exit near the bottom because of FEAR....this is what drive market behaviour and price...to the extremes of each.

If you looked at what your portfolio could be today over the last 15 years.....using HINDSIGHT, you would have ignored the last 2 BEAR MARKETS......hung tough and continued to avg into the market.

Problem is, we are emotional creatures, so if you want to be a LONG TERM investor and reap those benefits, then you are best not to ponder daily what your account is worth....ON PAPER.

My own personal mistakes were not that I couldn't identify a BEAR MKT, which I have now twice in 13 years, it was in trying to pick THE BOTTOM. Getting out near 14,000 DOW.....8,000 Dow wasn't a sale? Of course it plunged below 7,000 briefly, but my point was....I had saved my ass from a 6,000 point decline...WHEN was I going to reap the rewards of lower prices?

The answer to that was I had NOT YET mastered my own emotions. I did not believe my own charts which told me a bottom was at hand. I did not trust that THE BOTTOM would hold on a test....or the rising tide was real or sustainable!

I have answered this period before in my blog, tried to be as honest as I can, openly sharing what I'm thinking, my own experiences in an attempt to help others.

I argue from both a fundamental and technical viewpoint. I'm not saying I will leave  even my own 401K in under any circumstances, no I will probably go to the sidelines hen I think it appropriate.
But should stock prices go on sale again, and I AM on the sidelines in plenty of time with CASH ON HAND IN WHICH I CAN BUY THE BARGAINS (because what good are bargains if you have NO CASH?)  (I am on sidelines in another account) I WILL be prepared to put money to work at or below certain market price thresholds, NOT because I KNOW the bottom is near. I will buy because I know prices have gotten severe haircut, are on sale, and my chances of making money are very good even in the intermediate term.

Timing with LUMP SUMS is important, if you have shorter horizon, buying in 2007 meant you waited until this year to recoup, but you did. Getting scared out in 2009 would have been a horrible decision.

The GREAT BULL MARKET OF THE 80'S and 90'S began with historic highs in interest rates, then during that entire period, falling interest rates. We had an INDUSTRIAL, MANUFACTURING and TECHNOLOGY LED expansion....real jobs, real economy...limited FED meddling....of course then came GREENSPAN.....we exploded.....but there was a price to pay.

Then came Bernanke, now even more historic FED meddling.....one bubble, two, 3? each bubble bursts and causes financial and market havoc.

Are we on the cusp of another GREAT BULL MKT, or is what we are witnessing just a figment of the FED's intrusive meddling and manipulation and targeting of financial assets?

What then should we expect to happen when that game ends or fails?    


To be continued......

Duratek

SPX TRIPLE TOP? TECHNICAL CROSSROADS?

Triple top and that converges with top in Broadening bearish megaphone I have posted....and all AFTER a possible bottom in yields?

ALL this after some major inflows to stock funds, and the euphoria of 4 straight record highs? Can't say a high degree of bearishness anymore....that's been SWIPED from their faces.

My previous post, where I posit no way we will top here, is and I still feel possibly we are set for a balst off blow off top, where MORE divergences are in place at the NEW highs.....or one DOWN move before last up cycle.

How euphoric can one really be, when unemployment rate drops because of gross number of newly dropped out of work force?

GDP could surprise to upside....companies will be hard pressed to keep a good rate of earnings momentum, IMHO

So maybe, we are at tactical, and technical crossroads?

D

MORE OF WHAT BOTHERS ME

Unemployment Rate Falls To 7.7% As Labor Participation Rate Falls To 63.5%–Lowest in Three Decades–296,000 of Discouraged Americans Leave Labor Force In February

NO TOP IN SIGHT

Fundamentally I have tons of issues, but IMHO we will soon if not now enter the final explosive phase of this bull market.

0% on savings, no other alternatives, what is being presented as positive economic and job data, 4 straight days of new all tme highs....fence sitters won't be able to hold off much longer......it will be everyone in the pool soon.....could be 6 months, a year or longer.....til we get there...then.....burst.

In the data today , just so you know, LESS people in the workforce, participation fell, so maybe 230K found jobs...a bunch more left and gave up.

Just my 2 cents....more later

D

CHINA'S REAL ESTATE BUBBLE

60 minutes piece, in a word, SHOCKING

D

APPROACHING MEGAPHONE PATTERN TOP

HOME DEPOT CEO QUOTE ON MARKETS

"The Fed is printing a lot of money. They are forcing people into markets. You shouldn't be buying securities because you're forced to buy them by zero rates. you should buy them because you think they're great value. They're great value only relative to zero interest rates. they're not great value on an absolute basis."

Think about it, 5 years of HISTORIC rally from abyss, 5 years of historic FED printing.

D

WHAT'S WRONG WITH ALCOA?

STOCKS AT RECORD HIGHS AT CLOSE

I take no pleasure on being pessimistic on the underpinnigns of the whole house of cards, but I am happy to see those who STUCK IT OUT have regained ALL that had been lost in the near depression of 2009, pretty amazing.

Chances are you don't make that kind of BOTTOM without lots of the little guys jumping out and who knows if they ever came back, though they tend to come back near the highs.

As stocks have closed at (let me say again) NEW ALL TIME HIGHS , here are 2 stats you might find perlexing

 

2007  27 M on food stamps
2013  47 M on food stamps

 

2007 7.5 M unemployed
2013  12.5 M unemployed

And I cannot find anyone other than robert prechter (bearish longer than me! haaa) that doesn't think stocks are at EARLY stages of a GREAT BULL MARKET!!!

To those who never waver, or worry, or avg in month after month....none of any of this will really matter, the wild swings and bull and bear tops and bottoms always occur from extremes in emotion greed and fear and back again.

These can be short term or cyclical (3-5 years) or secular (15-20 years like move from 1974-2000)

The bigger question is, are we in a LONG TERM BULL or are we still stuck (or have we ever been in) a Secular Bear market? Though it may sound crazy, that is possible.

The economy has plenty of slack, so I can see the room for optimism it can get better.
They say 2.5-3% growth is all we need to create more jobs, profits will rise, so might stocks.


Below I'm going to show you the mother of all SECULAR BULL MARKETS....10 year treasuries....price is up, yields is down, since before 1980.

AM I the ONLY one that think the direction of stocks over this same time frame and again today has also been UP and now at new highs.

ALL BULL MKTS END....30 PLUS years of FALLING YIELDS....bears watching

HOUSING RECOVERY MIRAGE

Have you seen the headlines, heard the news "HOUSING IS ROCKING", NEW HOME SALES SKYROCKET"," HOME PRICES INCREASE AGAIN AND ON THE MEND"

Here's the reality

Think again of where interest rates are right now.....it took rates at 3% to accomplish what you see in the chart above. Median home prices in 2005 were $231,000, they HAVE recovered to $173,000. SO MOST if not ALL the homeowners since 2005 are STILL under water.

With all this talk about a housing recovery, it is logical to consider many of these people who want to get away from the housing boat anchor will LIST THEIR HOME, when MORE supply comes onto market than demand, what happens to price?

AT least 50% of homes sold are still foreclosed homes.....we have a LONG WAY to go.

In the meantime, we have inflationary pressures, we have a FED who started just 5 years ago with $800B and now has around $3 TRILLION in holdings....almost none of it is LIQUID. DO the math

D

APPL IN BEAR MARKET

. Traders seems to have jumped on the other side, and haven't let up. Stocks are rebounding but APPL isn't, not good sign.

 

The chart only shows you a possible set up...it COULD go down and test that price level and hold...but if it breaks that line....$420 minimum..closer to $380. Stock could be $1500 in 5 years, this is just current setup.

 

There is bearish death cross in play, trend has turned bearish on APPL, $350-420 here we come.

 

NOTICE how the blue line (50 SMA) hasn't crossed the red line (200 SMA) since 2009!!

IS APPLE FORMING HEAD AND SHOULDERS?

I think it is, and should it break the neckline, I think it falls below $420.

D

OUR GREAT RECOVERY FINDS AVG NEW CAR PRICE OUT OF RACH FOR MANY!

"The typical new vehicle is now more expensive than ever, averaging $30,500 in 2012, according to TrueCar.com data, and heading up again as makers curb the incentives that helped make their products more affordable during the recession when they were desperate for sales.
According to the 2013 Car Affordability Study by Interest.com, only in Washington could the typical household swing the payments, the median income there running $86,680 a year. At the other extreme, Tampa, Fla., was at the bottom of the 25 large cities included in the study, with a median household income of $43,832.

The study looked at a variety of household expenses, such as food and housing, and when it comes to purchasing a new vehicle, it considered more than just the basic purchase price, down payment and monthly note, factoring in such essentials as taxes and insurance."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cars-increasingly-reach-many-americans-145957880.html

"BERNANKE'S BIG BET"

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bernanke-big-bet-collapse-dollar-strengthens-zucchi-131248460.html

"I am somewhat concerned that our economy, for better or for worse, may be heading down the path where it relies on artificially low rates," Zuchhi says, adding that he thinks it's going to be "very very difficult for the Fed to work its way out of it balance sheet without causing some serious problems."
As he sees it, the front line in this battle is not the bond market or interest rates, it's currency."The dollar is, in fact, the whole thing," Zucchi says, adding that he "thinks Bernanke probably goes to sleep every night thinking about if he is going to wake up with the same dollar that he had today, and that's his big worry."
As much as Bernanke has commented that the problem is manageable, Zucchi is unconvinced.
"Debt bubbles ultimately end, in fiat currencies, when the trust that outside investors have evaporates." It is not only something that has happened before, it is also the kind of crisis that tends to happen rather quickly when it does.

END GAME

The saved us in 2009 from a 1930's style Depression, saved the banking system and jolted the stock market off the canvas and perhaps to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS.

It put a bottom in the housing market and has allowed many to refinance at MUCH LOWER RATES, slowing down the dominoes of foreclosures. STILL, as many as 25% of all homeowners are still under water, owing more than they paid. Taking out home equity loans was one of the underpinnings of consumer spending and fueling our economy until the bubble burst.

Before 2009, there were options for investors, especially those near or in retirement to get a safe return on their money through Bonds, money market funds, savings in general. The landscape has changed dramatically, and if you didn't play the REFLATION GAME, you were left at best running in place at near 0% returns on anything lock solid safe.

The FED targeted stocks for price appreciation, can one really blame them faced with financial annihilation?

Now it's 2013, still 5 years later Fed Funds rate is at effectively 0%, savings return.....the principal, not much else. The Fed has been buying up MBS and Treasuries at a monthly $85B clip, take this away and the cookies crumble. There is a HUGE GULF disconnect in stocks and the fundamentals.

Yes, it could have been worse so it seems. but have we just kicked the can down the road, and if we come to that financial fork in road again, what more can the FED DO? It's more of the same QE strategy has been returning less and less. if you hadn't noticed, last years GDP was barely 1.5%,
and last qtr was just barely, but was negative. Unemployemnt is still near 8%, and gas prices are at record high this time of year, avg price $4 a gallon. Wages are stagnant, Americans are just keeping up wth rising costs, not getting ahead, not saving....not spending like they used to. COnsumer Sentiment is NOWHERE near its normal levels, and that along with most of the data are at historical lows for a recovery.

Now the Gov't is forced to some level of austerity, at same time trying to raise more revenue. Businesses are reluctant to add employees, health care costs rising.

I don't know how this will turn out, but I feel like the Bear market has been fought tooth and claw, and maybe the piper in the end will be paid in a lesser amount due to CB'er actions.

OR, on top of failing policies that won't reignite a BULL MKT ECONOMY vs just a BULL MKT in stocks, the gas will have to come off the pedal, and where will the eventual correction take us? i think a lot lower, somewhere below SPX 800, though I am not sure if any NEW low will be seen in our lifetime.

There is one powerful formation still IN PLAY, the bearish megaphone pattern that began in 2000, top is near SPX 1600.....that is an area, should we muddle up there will be exciting to see how that plays out.

I've always felt, you cannot print yourself to prosperity, you can forstall certain events....but maybe not avoid them altogether

D

5 YEARS INTO "RECOVERY"

"We cannot grow the nation's economy until consumers consume," said NRF chief executive officer Matthew Shay in a statement."  still not consuming like there is no tomorrow?????

Stock rally makes the already wealthy feel more so, but the avg American is not so influenced by that overt manipulation.

But HOUSING DOES

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/25/why-americans-still-feel-poor/?iid=obnetwork
"Why Americans Still Feel Poor"

FORTUNE – U.S. stocks have reached new highs, but most Americans probably don't feel any wealthier. That's because the prices of our homes have a bigger influence over how rich we feel and, therefore, how much we're willing to spend, suggests a recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

DOGGIE DOWNER

Today was a 90% down volume day, this coming just 1 day after the 1525 HURDLE was clipped. Coming so soon after that "monumental" achievment, that was looking like a LOW VOLUME throw over a that move is now in question and rebuked.

That doesn't mean higher prices wont come later after some sort of correction. Remember IMHO stock prices are now far removed from any fundamental value, so when you buy I think you buy with HOPE prices go higher....for no good reason

D

GENERATIONAL THEFT

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/langone-obamas-debt-fix-generational-131645600.html

WHERE ARE WE?

Ponder this. Are the moves made by Draghi in Europe going to create similar market performance that we have seen here in the US from FED actions that began late in 2008? Will 2013 be another sharp UP year for stocks in general? Are we enterring an era of another great long term BULL?

Japanese authorities were able to create a 20% 4 month decline in their currency, Soros said he made about $1B on this bet, which may have included a long Japanese stocks trade.

The EURO made a similar move but with a 20% increase in value.

Historic LOW interest rates in this country allow the US to continue floating $Trillion deficits year after year and do not put ANY pressure on our Gov't to live within its means.

0% savings accounts leave the small investor with NO PLACE LEF TO HIDE or gain returns, so they must, and have been flocking BACK TO EQUITIES.

In a world of supply and demand, this pretty much rules all markets......so as we go forward, we will do our best to keep that in mind and front and center. The days of fundamentals effecting the markets are destroyed with historic intervention and manipulation.

In a world that was finanacially nearly destroyed by the banking crisis, real estate bubble popping........NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON has been brought to justice....

D

ADJUSTED MONEY BASE TO NEW HIGHS

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf

Same moon shot last year this time.....not a coincidence. Remember when $20,000 a year was considered pretty good pay? Now it's barely above poverty....thank the FED Reserve for destroying our currency.

D

LIST OF THOSE DUMPING APPL STOCK LAST QTR

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/15/which-funds-sold-apple-q4/?iid=HP_LN

There is also inquirey into unusual activity in HEINZE stock before the Buffet announcement.....there will always be the have's and the not's.

Money flowing back into equities after 4 years plus of small investor doubting......

D

TROUBLING DATA

Sucker alert

 

"Insiders have been pulling out of stocks just as small investors are getting in.

Selling by corporate executives has surged recently as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) hit 14,000 and retail investors flooded into stocks. The amount of insider selling has usually preceded market selloffs.

"In almost perfect coordination with an equity market that was rushing toward new all-time highs, insider sentiment has weakened sharply - falling to its lowest level since late March 2012," wrote David Coleman of the Vickers Weekly Insider report, one of the longest researchers of executive buying and selling on Wall Street. "Insiders are waving the cautionary flag in an increasingly aggressive manner."

There have been more than nine insider sales for every one buy over the past week among NYSE stocks, according to Vickers. The last time executives sold their company's stock this aggressively was in early 2012, just before the S&P 500 (^GSPC) went on to correct by 10 percent to its low for the year.

"Insiders know more than the vast majority of market participants," said Enis Taner, global macro editor for RiskReversal.com. "And they're usually right over a long period of time."

 

NO BUDGET

President Barack Obama, having missed the statutory deadline for submitting his budget to Congress, is proposing instead that Congress pass a short-term plan to delay across-the-board spending cuts due to take effect March

 

Rick Santelli:

I would like to read something that richard favre wrote about a month ago. payroll's lag population growth for all but one more in 2012. including the january census adjustment, jobs trail population growth by 1.9 million. and that's in 2012. welcome risk

 

RECORD STOCK BUYING BINGE

Investors didn't just put aside their aversion to stocks in January: They tossed it out the window.

Investors flooded traditional stock funds and exchange-traded stock funds with a record $77.4 billion in January, according to TrimTabs.com, which tracks flows in and out of the stock market. January's inflow was $23.7 billion higher than the previous record, set in February 2000.

RECORD AMOUNT

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/05/mutual-funds-individual-investors/?iid=HP_LN

"That's the lens through which I'm looking at some fascinating statistics from TrimTabs Investment Research. Last month, TrimTabs says, retail investors put a record $39.3 billion into U.S. mutual funds and exchange traded funds.

The previous one-month record, you'll be glad to know, was $34.6 billion, set in February of 2000. That was at the height of the tech-telecom stock bubble, which began to burst the following month"

The Fed’s Worst Fear "BONDZILLA"

The Fed’s Worst Fear

EYE POPPING CHARTS OF REAL ECONOMY AND US SITUATION

http://budget.senate.gov/republican/public/index.cfm/charts

Here's ONE SIMPLE question that cannot have an answer from OBAMA ADM or FEDERAL RESERVE enslaving MILLIONS of middle class Americans, and bringing the GULF between POOR and the 1% to Historic levels.

WAIT, wasn't this Administration supposed to help those MOST in need? WTF????

HOW CAN people getting FOOD STAMPS be at an ALL TIME HIGH as the unemployment rate comes down? AS the labor participation rate as I have shown is at near historic lows?

There is but ONE aim to current policies, and be damned or hell and high water, as the very FEW who sit on the board of Federal Resrerve vote to keep interest rates at historic lows....benefiting the growth of gov't spending, and the top 1%.

No, let Obama sit on his thrown, rubbing his septor, and declaring he is the President of the people, and at the same time allows more and more freedoms to be stolen from the people?

D

WHY IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT DATA MISREPRESENTED?

http://www.infowars.com/shocking-numbers-that-show-the-media-is-lying-to-you-about-unemployment-in-america/

A LOOK AT ECRI INDICATOR

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php

BULLISH ON 14,000

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100420112  Congrats to those newly minted millionaires, the 1% er's who have substantial stock holdings, while the other 99% eat it.

And now, without another vehicle to get returns, the masses are back in a big way. A market with shorts decimated who won't need to cover to slow decline down, a market with a all in mentality, a market with TRILLIONS of NEWLY PRINTED FED FIAT being funneled into the assets to make things look like new again.

WHat we see is PROOF that each bull mkt ends with a bear, and fighting it we get money priniting and historic low rates and we get? A resucitation of stocks, but where are the jobs? SInce topping in 2000, the labor participation rate continmues to fall, explain that? (people give up!)

You see, no one will ask until a crisis comes again, how did we get here? WHAT will be the end byline for a market that misprices risk? 5 years at 0%, TRILLIONS of new dollars to take the place of the old ones that got fucked over...it's a miracle hon.


Oh almost forgot to add, when the MUSIC stops, there have been FEW pullbacks to act as support along the way.....when she blows, the roof will come off and it will get very dark and ugly as people try to cash out. You have to know when to BUY, and you also have to know when enough is enough and take your chips off the able.....they will NOT RING A BELL.

Now more than ever I feel the need to offer caution and warning, I am in a tiny minority amid all the loud voices screaming its all a buy man buy....this is not a 100% science...I just call it like I see it, right or wrong...


D

LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE< FOOL ME ONCE

here is your fing recovery....these jackasses on the hair channel flap their gums and tell you why this is such a great recovery a the unemployment rate just inched up to 7.9%!!!!

The chart above cannot be manipulated or explained away. The stock market can continue to move to a point to make it look like we are rocking and rolling, but there is ROT underneathe the surface.

D

DOW IN REAL MONEY TERMS

BEAR SPEAKS OUT

I'm all for manipulation if it leads us to the end game, growth. ALL we mostly have is growth of stock prices. Fed has stated they targeted stocks. Rates say no other options.

From lows of 666 we are at 1500 plus? Nice ride! BUT I think we have seen PEAK in earnings cycle, int rates seem to have bottomed (though with stock collapse that could change again), there are many signs that suggest bull mkt of 5 years is in latter stages.

 

When does it make sense to buy into a bull in last stages, fundamentals not supporting it, complacency of holders and now late comers piling on......

 

Most near retirement have VERY little saved,  going forward what a drag it could be, falling stocks mkt, aging population needing even more govt assistance, workers taxed out the ass along with business to help pay for the gap...that only gets wider with the HUGE unfunded liabilities.....pass the plastic bag and twisty ties....

You CAN delay the inevitable, you cannot avoid it.