"Stocks Fine for Now but Then Dow Will Crash to 5,000, Says Nenner"

Charles Nenner predicts Dow 5,000


Credit card use is on the decline, as millions of Americans cut up their plastic or get cut off by their credit card companies.

"In the past year, more than eight million consumers have stopped using credit cards, according to TransUnion, a Chicago-based credit researcher. That means 78 million U.S. consumers do not have credit cards, compared to 70 million last year. "

IS THERE RISK IN BOND FUNDS? 99 week of inflows finally broken

BULL MARKET IN BONDS CONTINUES

WORLD IS UPSIDE DOWN

Official recessions ended almost 16 months ago. By 2004-2005 COnsumer confidence PRESENT CONDITIONS rose to 120 (then 140), as you can see PRESENT CONDITIONS reading during this "recovery" is at worst reading of ONLY 20 !

Bullish confidence in the stock market is near 2007 highs, FED funds held at 0% for multiple years...no sign of lifting that easing.....but where are the signs current policies are working?

Today is when 99ers benefits end for 2 million of the long term unemployed unless a vote to extend is successful. Some recovery as many nations in the world who DO NOT have luxury of RESERVE CURRENCY need bailouts.

D

POEM FOR THE DAY

OUT OF DARKNESS
Grey clouds form like a dull sheen on the landscape
Droplets of rain cascade down like tears from a child.

Teeth clench to a bite, lips tight like a zipper
Thoughts in the mind trapped like a miner.

The world is closing in, the air collapsing like a balloon hissing stale oxygen.
The melody of the world has turned discordant like out of tune piano keys.

The harmony once enjoyed has been disturbed and replaced by a melancholy rhapsody.
Like a prize fighter laying on the canvas One must rise to the challenge of sanity.

Brave new worlds can turn ominously into pothole filled streets.
Navigating the ever changing roadmap to happiness, is fraught with wrong turns.

Waiting for a change that never comes leaves one vulnerable to any outcome.
Hunger for a quiet world, one of peace will feed the soul the nourishment it needs.

Pain is what makes you appreciate pleasure ,sadness joy, rain sunshine.
With a deep breath, and a firm hand a path to the light through the fog is visible.

Like a child, one step at a time, one day at a time, one dream at a time, grayness will turn to blue.....it's up to you

Duratek

JPM HAS STALLED

BANKING CONTINUES TO LAG THE MARKETS

HAVE YIELDS TOPPED?

Lower blue support for rally is here, uptrend in danger.

BLAST OF HOT AIR

For goodness sake, can you take another minute of the lies, the BS, the manipulation and this downward spiral we are in?

To me, the talk and pictures of the minions of shoppers running the heck around grabbing at the deals, standing outside for hours, now cyber monday....how everything is turning up roses, getting better......FED got your back, improving economics..it's all BS to me, pure unstrained BS!

I've held it in, but I'm gonna let it rip, so tune me out turn me off if you rather hear some cherry scenario unfold....this ain't the Goldilocks scenario.

Only work construction firms can get nowadays are going into existing space, not making it bigger, or nicer to suit a new tennant, it's to divide it SMALLER, for all the DOWNSIZING....or make it easier to rent....most construction companies home remodeling business has dried up and blown away....only some CRUMBS remain.

Just talked to guy has friend just lost his job, he was architecht for VA firm only 3 years ago had 55 architechts....and did some impressive work, VA not far from DC should be HOT AREA!...can't find work.

Housing market HAS NOT rebounded. 6 of last Recoveries led by Housing! Is manufacturing leading this one? Is banking? Autos? what then? exactly....this recovery talk is a load of crap...anyone with 2 eyes and a piehole has figured that out.

some stats from david rosenberg this am (free edited version available at link)

11 MILLION homeowners are underwater (owe more than house is worth)
2.5 MILLION barely have positive equity of 5% !
There is the shadow inventory of millions more empty properties.
Lots of these foreclosed homes have 2nd liens on them
Median home prices have collapsed at a 30% annual rate last 4 months
Existing home market about as bad as it was in 2009 bottom

We cheer record corp profits, but they got there by CHOPPING HEADS, sitting on cash or buying back stock, or cutting back on investment.....wrong way fred.


Now low interest rates help to transfer money from savers to IN CROWD...WTH?????? 0% on your savings its on sale!! but MSM is preoccupied showing pictures of bag holding shoppers...in more ways than one.

The DROP (BENANKE said wasnt likely nor possible) in HOME VALUES has wiped out TRILLIONS from the American people, in its place we get a FED manipualted stock market rally and they said as much, theres your transperancy.....but mostly avg folk wont be helped by that wealth effect.

MOney managers are sitting on the lowest level of cash in decades at 3.5% they are basically ALL IN.

Investors and hedgies alike are as bullish as near the 2007 top in all kinds of polls.

The GREATEST BAILOUT IN HISTORY was also the GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY taking the DEBTS from the financials and corrupt corporations which most peddled the fraudulent paper or mismanaged their portfolios (AIG FNM ETC) and handing the debts TO Public sector, the taxpayers...all of it!

And all of it made possible by the threats of financial armageddon if this transfer was not carried out.

There has been NEGLIGABLE benefits to real economy by the FED policies, the housing market lays dormant, construction is dormant, jobs dormant, lending dormant, manufacturing dormant....where is the recovery taking place?

Less bad is not much comfort to those 99'ers in next few days to months losing their liferaft.....what will happen to them?

Many renters are also not paying their rents, home owners not paying their mortgages.....yet banks post near record profits and will pay near record bonuses.....it's all a mystery....or are many banks in real life near or insolvent and a dirty trick is being played on us?

The fact that people will go out and shop for XMAS should come as no surprise, many of these same people bought the houses they couldn't afford and will shop with the mortgage money they won't pay....or with record gov handouts, you dont have record number of people on gov subsidy in the teeth of a real recovery.

Now myself and some of my friends agree that the NUMBER ONE #1 CULPRIT to our woes is THE FEDERAL RESERVE. Their money and interest rate policies have killed us.....like feeding HEROINE to an addict, you feel good for awhile then it takes more and more to feel not quite as good.....then you either go cold turkey and QUIT and start over or you die.

Where the smoke screen is being blown I don't welcome it nor should any of you...enough is enough already

Duratek

Paul Craig Roberts Rant

STENCH OF ECONOMIC DECAY GROWS STRONGER

US $'s INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

AT 80.63 this AM, will be hard for market to RALLY with stronger $.

D

Black Friday Sales Data

QUESTION, Are shoppers done?

BDI And SPX Diverging

Leszek Cichonski - Thanks Jimi

WHAT RECESSION?

BLACK FRIDAY was a comment on the recovery or how cautious shoppers remain?

With most of the people who have lost their jobs in the last 2 years still unemployed or underemployed excuse me if I am skeptical of "we're back to the good ole days". AN increase of shoppers paying in cash not credit was observed, also an increase in shoppers 15-25.

We are at a record for government assistance with more people getting food stamps than any other time in history. Between now and next April almost 4 million jobless will run out of their jobless benefits, if something isn't done $BILLIONS will come out of the economy.

Lots of talk about how we have record company profits, an excuse to buy stocks considering this trend will continue? Think about this, LARGE corporations are benefitting where small businesses are not. Large companies do not need BANK LENDING, they can issue BONDS for their borrowing needs, and have dramatically cut back INVESTMENT, this huge cutback in investment spending means more $'s to count as profit....so when does cautiousness and reduced investment = reasons to cheer corp profits? this combo = little job production.

Small businesses on the other hand cannot access bank credit.....we end up with another jobless recovery....add insult to injury:

Insult to injury is that FED policy of ultra low interest rates and outright asset manipulation send productive $'s overseas where they build productive capacity (but also are stimulating inflation) but here all that got created by the DESTRUCTIVE policies of the Federal Reserve was a housing bubble....a transitory wealth effect that has since blown up and now it takes an ever increasing amount of FED Liquidity to keep the entire US SHIP from sinking...and it ain't working so well.

ULTRA LOW rates have NOT re-stimulated the US housing market which sits at the low end of the worse it ever was.....and the FED has been direct in saying it is "influencing stock market pricing to create wealth effect which will help to create jobs...." but this is pure folly and will end badly and is why I suspect the Bear Market which began in 2000 or maybe even 2007 has much further to run.

AND THE GOV AND FED BLAME CHINA CURRENCY POLICIES? really......easy scapegoat.

If the FED can fool enough people thinking we have a vibrant economy unfolding a bi product might be an instant jolt upward to interest rates.....none of that would be good...the very policy in place right now was to drive long term rates LOWER but instead since QE2 announcement those very rates have risen.

FORCE banks to lend, FORCE savers who get nothing for saving into risky assets like stocks? These are the idiots where our fate is resting, g-d help us all

Duratek

Steve Winwood, Eric Clapton - Can't Find My Way Home

EXPANDING LOANS MEANS EXPANDING EOCNOMY !!

CONSIDER THE $TRILLIONS

WEDGE FORMING ON THE SPX

SHould break on MOnday.

We're Broke howard davidowitz

Poncho Sanchez - Cantaloupe Island (broaden your mind to more)

BETWEEN ROCK AND SWEET SPOT?

Double top above, dashed uptrend line support from 2009 bottom below